Pakistan opens land trade routes to Iran, will it undermine US? — Inside Story

[0:01] Pakistan opens land trade routes to Iran, allowing the transit of goods. [0:06] It's a much-needed reprieve for both economies. [0:09] But does it undercut Washington's pressure campaign on Tehran? [0:14] And how will it impact the Islamabad-mediated talks to end the war? [0:18] This is Inside Story. [0:37] Hello there, I'm James Bayes. [0:39] A tense ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding, but talks to end the war have stalled. [0:45] Pakistan is trying to bring the two parties back to the negotiating table, [0:50] and Iran has submitted a new proposal. [0:53] Both sides are restricting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters, [0:57] which has triggered a global economic crisis. [1:01] Pakistan is among the country's worst hit. [1:03] Now it's opening six land trade routes to facilitate the transfer of goods to Iran. [1:08] That could bring some relief, but it won't make a difference [1:11] to the bigger problem of energy shortages worldwide. [1:14] Is this just an attempt to convince Iran to restart negotiations? [1:20] And how will it impact the talks? [1:21] We'll discuss these issues with our panel of guests in just a moment. [1:25] But first, this report from Ferdi Akar. [1:27] With talks between Iran and the United States stalled, [1:32] the waters of the Strait of Hormuz have been effectively impassable for two months. [1:38] Iran's restrictions on shipping are largely preventing Gulf countries [1:41] from getting oil or gas out or goods in. [1:45] And since early April, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, [1:50] severely impacting what was a reliable source of income [1:53] for one of the most sanctioned countries in the world. [1:57] The blockade has cut off Iran from a range of imported goods [2:01] and forced container ships to reroute. [2:04] Many are now docked in Pakistan. [2:07] This week, Pakistan said it would open six land corridors from its ports [2:11] to enable the transfer of Iran-bound goods. [2:15] The announcement followed a visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragji. [2:20] The agreement enables Pakistan to generate revenue for its economy, [2:24] which has been taking strain during the regional conflict. [2:27] But the route bypasses, in part, the U.S. blockade on Iran's ports [2:33] and comes as Islamabad has positioned itself as a mediator in talks [2:38] between the U.S. and Iran to end the war. [2:42] Pakistan's transit scheme is designed to transport general goods [2:45] and could not feasibly be used to move Iranian oil, [2:49] which is internationally sanctioned. [2:51] It's unlikely to have an impact on Iran's ability to sell energy products. [2:55] But it could provide some reprieve for its war-ravaged economy. [3:01] And while reaction from Washington has been muted, [3:04] some analysts warn the U.S. could see Pakistan's move [3:07] as undermining its maximum pressure campaign on Iran, [3:11] which President Donald Trump insists is working. [3:14] Iran can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon. [3:18] And their economy is crashing. [3:20] The blockade is incredible. [3:22] The power of the blockade is incredible. [3:24] They're not getting any money from oil. [3:26] And hopefully it can be worked out very soon. [3:30] Tehran has ruled out direct negotiations [3:32] while the blockade remains in place. [3:35] While the U.S. is demanding Iran abandon [3:37] its entire nuclear development program, [3:41] Pakistan must mediate that impasse [3:43] while maintaining ties with both its most powerful ally [3:46] and one of its largest neighbors. [3:49] Ferdi Akar, Al Jazeera, for Inside Story. [3:52] A lot going on, but is any of it actually moving us [3:59] in a forward direction? [4:01] Let's discuss this today with our guests who are joining us. [4:04] From Istanbul, Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed, [4:09] a defense and foreign policy specialist. [4:11] He's also a former Pakistani information and culture minister. [4:16] Setara Siddiqui is in Isfahan, Iran. [4:19] She's an assistant professor at the University of Tehran [4:21] who specializes in U.S.-Iran relations. [4:25] And in Heidelberg in Germany, [4:27] Ross Harrison, a senior fellow [4:28] at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. [4:30] He's author of Decoding Iran's Foreign Policy, [4:34] Strategic Interests, Power and Influence. [4:37] Hello and welcome to you all. [4:40] If I can start with you, Senator Mushahid Hussain, [4:45] let's start with this order that came through [4:49] from the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan. [4:53] I'm reading it here, [4:53] the transit of goods through territory of Pakistan order. [4:57] Why did Pakistan decide to do this? [5:02] Well, Pakistan is a stakeholder in the region [5:05] and Pakistan is a very close friend of Iran, [5:08] which is a brotherly Muslim neighbor [5:10] with a 900 kilometers long border. [5:13] So it's also a gesture of goodwill towards Iran [5:16] because they needed this economic lifeline. [5:19] It's also good for Pakistan. [5:21] It gives us access to Central Asia and West Asia via Iran. [5:26] It gives Iran access to the Arabian Sea [5:29] via the Pakistani ports of Karachi and Gawadar. [5:32] And it also activates the Gawadar port, [5:35] which has been there. [5:36] And we don't have to go through Afghanistan anymore [5:39] to reach Central Asia, as was the case in the past. [5:42] So I would say it's win-win for all concerned. [5:45] And it's certainly a friendly gesture. [5:47] It's not negative or hostile towards any country. [5:51] But it was announced with no fanfare at all, Sederet. [5:54] And it was announced straight after [5:57] the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Arachi, [6:00] was in Islamabad for talks. [6:04] What does Iran get out of this? [6:07] So the two nations have been friends for a very long time. [6:13] And there is a lot of common cultural and historical [6:17] shared grounds between the two. [6:21] And this came because Pakistan wanted to show its willingness [6:26] to cooperate with Iran more than before, [6:29] as part of also mediating between Iran and the United States, [6:34] but also for Pakistan and Iran to act as sovereign nations [6:42] and give a message to the United States [6:45] that they will not allow the United States [6:48] to continue dictating what the nations in the region have to do. [6:53] Iran is using these corridors and the opportunity [6:56] that Pakistan is offering the country [6:58] in order to partially at least make up for the blockade [7:04] that the United States has imposed on Iran. [7:07] And Iran has previously also worked with other nations [7:10] in the region and outside [7:12] to minimize the impact of the cruel sanctions [7:18] that the United States have imposed on the nation. [7:20] And I see this as another attempt [7:23] between the two countries to build up more opportunities [7:26] of bilateral relations that benefit the two nations, [7:30] but also as a way to minimize the impact of sanctions [7:34] and the blockade on Iran. [7:36] Ross, you've heard Setara and Mujahid both talk [7:40] about the friendly relations between Pakistan and Iran. [7:45] How will this be seen in Washington? [7:47] Because Washington has got now its own blockade [7:51] of the Strait of Hormuz. [7:53] It's pursuing a pressure campaign, a sanctions campaign. [7:57] Will it be happy with this? [8:00] Well, James, it's hard to know [8:01] because we haven't seen much coming out of Washington [8:03] at this juncture. [8:05] Listen, the words that are coming out of the White House [8:08] suggest maximum blockade [8:11] and applying maximum pressure on the Islamic Republic [8:15] on the assumption that the Islamic Republic [8:17] will capitulate at some point in time. [8:20] So my sense is that generally, [8:23] given that the lack of nuance [8:25] that we typically see coming out of this White House, [8:28] that it will not be perceived as positively. [8:30] But in some ways, [8:31] if in fact the White House is looking [8:33] for some way to end this conflict [8:36] and understands that Iran may not capitulate, [8:40] regardless of how much economic pressure is put upon it, [8:42] that maybe not commenting or at least not overreacting [8:48] could send a signal to the Iranians [8:49] that the United States is trying to allow Iran [8:54] or to give a certain amount of space [8:56] for Iran to develop some kind of an off-ramp [8:58] and perhaps be an early, very early, [9:01] an indeterminate signal of some kind of de-escalation. [9:06] Moshahed, how do you think, [9:09] given that this happened behind the scenes, [9:15] do you think that the U.S. was given a heads-up about this [9:20] by Pakistan before it did it [9:24] and that Pakistan is trying to use this as a carrot? [9:27] We now are hearing that there is [9:29] some sort of new Iranian proposal. [9:32] Well, Pakistan has been trying to act [9:37] as an honest broker between Washington and Tehran [9:40] and we are very grateful that both countries, [9:44] Iran, the Islamic Republic of Iran [9:46] and the United States of America [9:47] have reposed confidence in Pakistan [9:49] and they have their trust in us. [9:51] We don't need to ask anybody's permission [9:54] to do what is in our sovereign right [9:56] and with Iran, as was rightly mentioned, [9:59] we have a long-standing track record [10:02] of a great close rapport [10:05] and this was the need of the hour [10:07] and let's be also very clear [10:09] that we are trying to help Mr. Trump [10:13] come out of this Iran quagmire, [10:16] which is a war of his own choice, [10:17] which was his monumental miscalculation [10:20] at the behest of Netanyahu [10:21] and I think that he realizes [10:23] that if anybody can get him an off-ramp, [10:26] it's Pakistan through our good offices [10:28] with Iran as well. [10:29] So I think that we are inching forward [10:32] and remember Trump is working [10:34] on a certain deadline [10:35] because in two weeks' time [10:37] he has to be in Beijing on 14th of May [10:39] and I think he'd like to wrap it up before that [10:42] and that's also a consideration. [10:44] So given the regional context, [10:46] given the ground realities, [10:47] it's become an unwinable war without end [10:49] and Pakistan is the only game in town [10:51] for the negotiations. [10:53] So I think that Pakistan [10:56] has that kind of leverage [10:57] and Pakistan has used that leverage [10:59] to a positive advantage [11:00] and it's a plus for peace, [11:03] I would say, in the short term. [11:06] Setara, this comes at a time, [11:09] yes, we've heard that there might be [11:10] some new Iranian proposal, [11:12] but a time when we've had [11:14] pretty tough talks still coming [11:16] from both sides, [11:17] including from where you are in Iran. [11:20] The Supreme Leader, [11:22] Mushtab al-Khamenei, [11:24] a written statement, [11:25] we still haven't seen him, [11:26] and there are some still that doubt [11:27] whether he's alive, [11:28] but he has said that foreigners [11:30] have no place in the region [11:32] and particularly in the Gulf [11:33] except at the bottom of its waters. [11:36] Tough talking. [11:39] Well, Iran has made it clear [11:40] several times [11:41] and various officials [11:43] have made it clear [11:44] that Iran is not going to negotiate [11:46] with the United States [11:47] directly or indirectly [11:48] at gunpoint. [11:49] As long as there is [11:51] a coercive rhetoric [11:52] coming from Washington [11:54] and as long as Washington [11:56] keeps thinking that [11:57] by imposing a blockade [11:59] or bombing Iranian territories, [12:01] they can get Iran [12:03] to come to the table, [12:04] Iran will send the same message [12:06] that this is not going to happen. [12:08] When Iran and the U.S. [12:11] decided to talk in Pakistan, [12:14] Iran, as a goodwill gesture, [12:17] opened the Strait of Hormuz, [12:18] but soon, within a few hours, [12:21] the conditions [12:24] and the articles of the ceasefire [12:27] were violated [12:29] and Iran imposed [12:31] or started, restarted [12:33] exercising its leverage [12:35] over the Strait of Hormuz. [12:37] So Iran continues to do that. [12:39] And I think with what we have observed [12:41] over the past almost two months, [12:44] the war that Iran, [12:46] what was imposed on Iran [12:48] by the United States [12:49] and the Israeli regime, [12:51] the response got the entire region [12:55] into this conflict. [12:57] And it has become very clear [12:58] that U.S. bases in the region [13:01] do not shield the family monarchies [13:05] in the region. [13:05] On the other hand, [13:06] they import more conflict [13:09] and more chaos to the region. [13:10] And it is to the benefit [13:12] of the nations in the region [13:14] to act as sovereign nations [13:16] and be the only decision makers [13:20] of what should happen [13:22] in the Persian Gulf [13:23] and in West Asia in general, [13:25] rather than allowing [13:27] a hegemon, [13:28] an imperialist power [13:29] to dictate to them [13:31] what to do [13:32] and which countries [13:33] to engage with. [13:34] So the message is very clear. [13:36] Iran is not going to negotiate [13:38] at gunpoint. [13:39] And Iran has made it clear [13:40] that it will be costly [13:41] for the United States [13:42] to maintain its hegemonic presence [13:44] in the region [13:46] and bring about chaos [13:48] and conflict [13:49] to the regional countries. [13:53] Ross, we have tough talk [13:55] coming from Washington as well. [13:57] Secretary Pete Hegseth [13:59] heads what they call [14:01] the administration, [14:02] the Department of War. [14:03] He said recently, [14:04] we see ourselves [14:05] as part of this negotiation as well. [14:08] We negotiate with bombs. [14:10] And we hear that [14:11] President Trump [14:12] has recently been presented [14:13] with new military options [14:15] for a short and powerful [14:17] new wave of strikes. [14:20] Why are they reconsidering [14:21] opening the military campaign? [14:23] Is it just because [14:24] they don't have any other ideas? [14:27] Well, I'm not sure [14:28] it's so much the lack of ideas. [14:29] I think at this point, [14:31] they haven't given up [14:32] on their basic set of assumptions [14:34] about Iranian behavior [14:36] and how Iran will respond. [14:38] Remember, from the very, very beginning, [14:40] the idea of this war [14:41] is that it would last [14:42] four or five days [14:43] and that Iran would either collapse [14:45] or completely capitulate. [14:47] And neither of those things [14:48] have happened. [14:49] And I think what we're seeing [14:51] is basically the same approach, [14:53] which is not necessarily [14:55] to engage politically, [14:59] not necessarily to negotiate. [15:00] But when they do sit down [15:02] and negotiate, [15:03] apparently they're basically [15:04] giving ultimatums. [15:05] And I think one of the things [15:06] that's important to remember, James, [15:07] is that, you know, [15:08] like Carl von Clausewitz, [15:10] the ancient, [15:11] the old Prussian strategist said, [15:13] war is a continuation [15:14] of politics by other means. [15:16] And in many ways, [15:17] in this administration, [15:19] they've been following [15:20] war is the elimination [15:21] of politics by military means. [15:23] So I think they're really trying [15:25] to get the Iranians, [15:27] keep pushing in some way [15:28] to get the Iranians to capitulate [15:30] and to get their, [15:32] whatever political objectives [15:33] they have, [15:34] whatever political objectives [15:35] the US has, [15:36] achieve them [15:37] through using only military means. [15:40] And any kind of negotiations [15:42] that would ensue from that [15:43] would basically be [15:44] some kind of capitulation [15:46] or some kind of complete submission. [15:48] And knowing a lot about Iran, [15:50] that's unlikely to happen [15:51] in any situation. [15:54] Staying with you though, Ross, [15:55] the clock is ticking, is it not? [15:57] We have had the day pass, [15:59] which was the 60th day [16:00] under the War Powers Resolution [16:02] of 1973, [16:04] which is when they're supposed [16:06] to get authorization [16:08] from Congress. [16:09] But the more important clock [16:10] is the global economic clock [16:13] and how it affects the US [16:15] and the electoral clock. [16:20] Yeah, of course. [16:21] And I think one of the strategies [16:23] the Iranians have followed [16:24] is to try to put pressure [16:26] on the United States [16:27] and particularly on Donald Trump [16:29] using the clock [16:31] in the sense that [16:31] the midterm elections [16:32] are several months away. [16:34] But any kind of damage, [16:36] further damage to the US economy [16:38] or the global economy [16:39] will have some kind of a hangover effect [16:41] going into the midterm elections. [16:43] And I think it's an attempt [16:45] to get the voters [16:47] that voted for this administration [16:49] to put pressure [16:50] and show dissatisfaction [16:51] and also to inflict enough pain [16:54] on the global economy [16:56] and on the US allies in the region [16:59] to act as a deterrent. [17:00] That's one of the things [17:01] I think this government in Iran [17:03] has been very, very resolute about, [17:06] which is that at the end of this war, [17:08] unlike the war that took place [17:10] in June of last year, [17:11] at the end of this war, [17:13] victory for Iran means [17:14] survival of the regime [17:16] and also reestablishing deterrence [17:19] that they believe they had lost [17:20] so that there would be [17:21] enough pain inflicted [17:22] so that six months from now, [17:24] nine months from now, [17:24] a year from now, [17:25] this kind of attack [17:26] won't happen again. [17:27] So that is the framing, [17:28] I think, going into [17:30] this kind of a stalemate [17:33] between the United States and Iran [17:34] and any kind of negotiation [17:35] will be the need [17:36] to reestablish deterrence [17:37] will be Iran's bottom line, [17:39] plus obviously the economic lifeline, [17:41] some kind of economic lifeline, [17:43] which the Pakistani move [17:45] at least creates [17:46] at least a modicum lifeline [17:48] for the Islamic Republic [17:49] while this process [17:50] of stalemate [17:53] between the United States [17:53] and Iran continues. [17:55] Seter, does Iran think [17:58] that it has time [17:59] on its side in this? [18:01] Because, of course, [18:02] as long as this blockade goes on, [18:04] Iran's economy [18:05] is going to really suffer [18:07] and Iran's economy [18:09] is already at rock bottom. [18:13] Well, the clock is working [18:14] in the favour of Iran [18:16] and Iran understands that [18:18] because even though [18:20] this is an economic pressure [18:21] on Iran, Iran has survived [18:24] brutal sanctions, [18:26] the like of which [18:27] no other country [18:28] has been subject to, [18:30] and Iran has managed [18:31] to bypass sanctions [18:32] and establish workarounds [18:34] to sell its oil [18:35] or to sort of sustain the economy [18:40] despite the maximum pressure campaign [18:42] from Washington. [18:43] So Iran has learned its ways [18:44] to bypass sanctions [18:46] and minimise the impact [18:48] of the maximum pressure [18:50] on its economy. [18:51] On the other side, [18:53] it is the United States [18:54] and the Trump's regime [18:56] that is under immense pressure. [18:58] We are already seeing [18:59] conflict within [19:01] the Washington regime. [19:04] And as you said, [19:05] there is also [19:05] the Congress approval. [19:06] Not that Trump has any respect [19:08] for law [19:09] or congressional authorization. [19:11] and Hexas is already [19:14] making up excuses [19:15] that they won't even need [19:17] the congressional approval. [19:20] But because of the elections ahead [19:22] and because of the economic pressure [19:24] inside the United States [19:26] that where people are not really used [19:28] to maximum pressure, [19:30] Trump seems to be under more pressure [19:34] than Iran [19:34] on making a decision [19:36] as soon as possible. [19:38] For now, [19:38] what we're seeing [19:39] is that Iran [19:41] besides the corridors [19:45] with Pakistan, [19:46] Iran has also worked [19:48] on a railway [19:49] which China previously [19:51] working through Central Asia. [19:55] And Iran is not an island. [19:56] The Strait of Hormuz [19:57] is not Iran's only option. [19:59] Of course, [19:59] this is going to take time [20:01] and Iran has to work through it. [20:02] But Iran can find other ways [20:04] to sell its oil. [20:05] As I said, [20:07] Iran has bypassed sanctions [20:08] and tried to establish workarounds [20:11] in order to get some revenue. [20:15] Plus, [20:15] something around 40 to 50 percent [20:18] of Iran's oil consumption [20:21] is domestic. [20:22] And the pressure coming from outside [20:24] is something that Iran [20:25] can over time sustain. [20:28] But on the other hand, [20:30] we're also seeing that [20:32] the U.S. army [20:33] is under pressure [20:34] and it seems that [20:35] they are already [20:36] talking about how [20:38] this is not going to be sustainable [20:39] for the United States [20:40] to maintain [20:41] a long-term presence [20:42] in the Persian Gulf [20:43] and continue [20:45] with their [20:46] airstrikes [20:47] or the war campaign [20:49] on Iran. [20:49] is there also [20:52] real problems here [20:55] for Pakistan [20:55] economically? [20:57] Yes, [20:58] pride on one side [20:59] of holding those talks [21:00] and having [21:00] the high-level delegation there. [21:02] But at the same time, [21:04] people are suffering. [21:05] So you've got to balance [21:06] that national pride [21:07] with growing discontent. [21:09] Well, [21:12] that is [21:12] Pakistan is among [21:14] several countries [21:15] in the world [21:15] which are suffering [21:17] the consequences [21:17] of this uncalled [21:19] for U.S.-Israeli aggression [21:21] against Iran [21:23] which sparked off [21:24] this global economic [21:25] and energy crisis. [21:27] So yes, [21:28] we are suffering [21:28] like the rest of the world, [21:30] most of the world. [21:31] But we can take that, [21:33] frankly, [21:34] because we have [21:36] other options also [21:37] whether we [21:38] the region, [21:39] whether we China [21:39] and other Muslim countries. [21:41] So that we can take. [21:42] But I think that [21:43] we are working [21:45] very seriously [21:45] that the time has come [21:47] perhaps that Mr. Trump [21:50] who should now [21:52] lift the blockade [21:53] and I think [21:54] once that is done, [21:55] that is the core issue now, [21:57] things will settle down. [21:58] And I'm hearing [21:59] some interesting proposals [22:00] here also in Istanbul. [22:01] I was meeting. [22:02] There was this former [22:03] prime minister of Turkey, [22:04] Daoudogluo. [22:05] He was saying [22:05] that perhaps [22:06] there should be [22:08] a consortium [22:09] of some Muslim countries [22:10] which should be [22:11] for the interim period [22:12] taking control [22:14] of the Strait of Hormuz [22:15] so that [22:16] the international waterways [22:18] opened up [22:19] for freedom of navigation. [22:21] And there are others [22:21] also talking about that. [22:22] But those who started [22:24] the war, [22:25] they have to take [22:25] the first step [22:26] and that is to lift [22:27] the blockade. [22:28] And I think [22:28] that will get the ball rolling [22:29] towards some sort of peace. [22:32] Ross, [22:33] we're of course [22:34] dealing, [22:34] a lot of this [22:35] relates to one man [22:37] which is President Donald Trump [22:39] at least on the US [22:41] side of things. [22:42] And so I'd like to ask you [22:43] about the element [22:44] of time there [22:45] because he's not a man [22:47] known for his patience. [22:49] Do you think [22:50] he may lose patience [22:52] in Pakistan [22:53] and its role [22:55] as a mediator? [22:56] Maybe lose patience [22:57] in diplomacy altogether? [23:01] Well, I think [23:02] he may in fact [23:03] lose patience [23:03] and I think you've seen [23:04] that to some degree. [23:05] There was a diplomatic track [23:07] that was open [23:08] and what the US [23:10] decided to do [23:11] was rather than [23:12] try to create [23:13] a pathway [23:14] towards de-escalation, [23:16] they've essentially [23:17] chose escalation. [23:19] Now, it's a form [23:20] of passive kind [23:21] of escalation [23:21] but the blockade [23:22] is basically [23:23] an act of war. [23:24] So I think [23:25] that he's losing patience [23:27] but I think [23:27] he also is caught [23:28] in what we call [23:29] an escalation trap [23:30] in a way [23:31] that if he escalates [23:32] it's very difficult [23:33] for him to achieve [23:34] his objectives. [23:35] He may inflict [23:36] more damage, [23:37] he may be able [23:37] to take some control [23:38] and create [23:39] some strategic depth [23:40] but he's not necessarily [23:41] going to be able [23:41] to get Iran [23:42] to capitulate [23:43] and if he de-escalates [23:45] then he runs [23:45] the risk of [23:46] being in a worse spot [23:48] than he was [23:49] before the war [23:49] or the US [23:51] might be in a worse spot [23:52] before the war [23:53] and unthinkable [23:54] to Donald Trump [23:55] would be [23:56] getting some kind [23:56] of a deal [23:57] that is not [23:58] significantly better [23:59] than what Barack Obama [24:00] had in 2015 [24:01] what would be called [24:02] the Joint Comprehensive [24:03] Plan of Action. [24:04] So I think [24:05] he's kind of caught [24:06] in a [24:06] he may be losing patience [24:08] but he's kind of caught [24:09] in an escalation [24:10] trap here [24:11] and the Iranians [24:12] too [24:13] are kind of [24:14] caught in a way [24:14] but I think [24:15] for them [24:16] it's clear [24:17] because they have [24:18] clear political objectives [24:19] which is [24:20] as I mentioned earlier [24:20] which was survival [24:21] of the regime [24:22] and also [24:23] recreating deterrence. [24:24] So for them [24:24] escalating [24:26] is in some ways [24:28] more [24:29] less risky [24:29] than de-escalating. [24:31] If they de-escalate [24:32] then [24:32] in their minds [24:34] they have now [24:34] capitulated [24:35] and they will have [24:37] shown weakness [24:37] and that will be [24:38] construed as weakness [24:39] on the part [24:40] of the Trump administration [24:41] and it will work [24:42] against them [24:42] in the negotiating [24:43] table. [24:46] So for them [24:47] I think it's important [24:48] that they [24:49] be able [24:50] to de-escalate [24:51] but at the same time [24:52] the United States [24:53] is de-escalating [24:54] and that's where [24:55] I think the sweet spot [24:55] is here James [24:56] is that if both parties [24:57] signal to each other [24:59] that they want to de-escalate [25:00] the US [25:00] doesn't necessarily [25:01] send all the ships home [25:02] but loosens up [25:03] on the blockade [25:04] simultaneously [25:05] the Iranians [25:06] open the strait [25:08] and then they can [25:08] move the negotiating [25:09] table [25:10] with both parties [25:11] having a certain amount [25:12] of strength [25:13] and bargaining leverage [25:14] but where we are today [25:15] that does not seem [25:16] to be the mindset [25:17] of this president [25:18] at this point in time [25:19] and whether facts [25:20] will intervene [25:21] and whether facts [25:22] will penetrate [25:22] the strategic logic [25:24] of this administration [25:25] is something [25:25] that remains to be seen [25:26] in the coming days [25:27] and weeks [25:27] but this moment [25:28] it's a very dangerous [25:29] it's a dangerous moment [25:30] well Shahid [25:31] do you share that view [25:33] and are there worries [25:34] from Pakistan [25:35] about keeping Trump [25:36] in particular engaged [25:38] how much time [25:39] does this Islamabad [25:41] process have [25:43] I would say [25:46] we're looking at weeks [25:47] because I do not share [25:48] this pessimism [25:50] I think that Trump [25:51] is a realist [25:52] he's a man in a hurry [25:53] there's war weariness [25:54] in Washington DC [25:55] he knows this has become [25:56] an unwinning world war [25:58] he wants to get out [25:59] of the Iran quagmire [26:00] and he wants to call it quits [26:02] and he wants a safe [26:03] face-saving exit [26:04] which we are trying [26:05] to provide in one form [26:06] or the other [26:07] so I don't think war [26:08] is an option [26:09] on either side [26:10] and certainly not Trump [26:11] and he's had enough [26:12] of the war thing [26:13] and he was pushed [26:14] into it anyway [26:14] by Nathan Yahoo [26:15] probably trapped [26:17] by the Epstein files [26:18] I guess [26:19] so I think that [26:20] some sort of [26:22] face-saving [26:24] would be found out [26:25] and I think it will be [26:26] more or less weeks [26:28] rather than months [26:28] and it will be [26:29] Trump who will blink first [26:30] thank you very much [26:32] Ross Harrison [26:33] Mushahed Hussain Syed [26:35] and Setireh Siddiqui [26:37] for the very latest [26:38] as well as [26:39] comprehensive analysis [26:40] on the current situation [26:41] take a look at our website [26:42] aljazeera.com [26:43] for further discussion [26:44] you can visit our [26:45] Facebook page [26:46] that's facebook.com [26:47] forward slash [26:48] AJ Inside Story [26:49] and you can also [26:50] post your views on X [26:52] there we are [26:52] at AJ Inside Story [26:54] for now that's it [26:55] from me James Bays [26:56] and the team here [26:57] stand by [26:57] Al Jazeera's coverage [26:58] continues [26:59] in just a moment [27:00] I'll see you next time [27:01] I'll see you next time [27:02] I'll see you next time