Pakistan Balances Ties in High-Stakes Mediation

[0:00] Well, for more on Pakistan's role, let's now speak to retired Reh Admiral Saeed Faisal Ali Shah, [0:05] who's a former high-ranking Pakistani Navy officer and a defense and security analyst. [0:09] He's joining us from Islamabad. [0:11] Thank you so much for your time. [0:12] I know you spent some time in Iran as well, so we very much look forward to hearing your expertise on this. [0:17] Can I ask you first, what is at stake for Pakistan in these negotiations and how it is approaching them? [0:25] Is it from a security lens or a diplomatic lens? [0:34] Admiral, can you hear me? [0:35] Okay, we seem to have lost our connection with Admiral Faisal in Islamabad there. [0:44] Hopefully, we will re-establish it and find out more about Pakistan's role in these negotiations between the Americans and Iranians. [0:52] In the meantime, let's tell you about the British Prime Minister's visit to Qatar, [0:58] which is part of his trip to the Gulf region, his tour of the Gulf region, [1:02] which has also taken him to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. [1:06] Keir Samuels says he's been discussing the UK's defense support for the region and the ceasefire between the US and Iran. [1:13] Well, the overarching impression here is the importance, as they see it, [1:19] as us standing with them as an ally, as a friend of theirs at a point of need. [1:24] And there's been reflection on the work we've done with them over the last six to seven weeks on collective self-defense. [1:31] Here in Qatar, we've got a joint squadron. [1:33] So, a real sense of here we are as an ally, standing with our allies when it matters most to them. [1:39] Obviously, the discussion moved very quickly to the ceasefire, a sense that it's fragile, that more work is needed, [1:47] that the Strait of Hormuz has to be part of the solution, a very strong sense that there can't be tolling or restrictions on that navigation. [1:56] And so, we come away from here with a real desire on their part to work more closely with us on defense resilience, on economic resilience. [2:04] That's really important to us because this is impacting us back at home, on our economy. [2:10] So, it's very important we do that together. [2:12] It's a big opportunity as well for the United Kingdom. [2:15] So, it has been important that we've been here. [2:18] And there's a sense here, as there is, I think, in the United Kingdom that this conflict is going to define us for a generation. [2:25] And we must respond and we will respond with strength. [2:29] All right. Going back to the negotiations in Islamabad. [2:32] Joining us once again, retired Ray Admiral Saeed Faisal Ali Shah, former high-ranking Pakistani Navy officer and defense and security analyst. [2:40] Thank you, Ray Admiral, for your time. [2:42] Hopefully, you can hear me this time. [2:43] Can I ask you first, what is at stake for Pakistan in these negotiations and how it's approaching them? [2:48] Is it from a security lens or a diplomatic perspective? [2:56] Thank you for having me in your program. [2:58] While Pakistan is not party to this conflict, but it has direct stakes in this conflict, it is living in this region. [3:03] We are neighbors to Iran. [3:06] We have very good relations with the U.S. also. [3:10] We know the region, the dynamics of the region. [3:12] Whatever is happening, Pakistan is suffering from that. [3:16] And whatever will remain behind after this war, Pakistan will have effects on it also. [3:22] Pakistan actually is doing in its utmost sincerity, not only for its friends, but also for the region and the world at large. [3:30] Pakistan is doing it for the economy, the world economy, which was suffered because of this conflict. [3:37] And Pakistan is doing everything for every poor person living in any corner of the world who has been suffering from this, from the catastrophic economic effects of this conflict. [3:48] So Pakistan is doing it in the utmost sincerity of the international community and being part of that international community. [3:57] But how is it balancing its relationships in this crisis? [4:00] I mean, it has ties to the various parties involved. [4:03] It has close ties with Saudi Arabia, has received military aid from the U.S. and also borders Iran, as you say. [4:09] How are these competing interests being managed by Islamabad? [4:13] Yeah, I think one factor that has made Pakistan very prominent in this conflict as a mediator amongst other nations is its good relations with the U.S., its good relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its closeness with the U.S. [4:35] And that's what has made Pakistan very prominent. [4:38] But that has also been a factor that made Pakistan very cautious also. [4:44] And Pakistan has been walking a very tight row so far. [4:48] It has been condemning the attacks on Iran. [4:52] And simultaneously, it has also been condemning the attacks on the Middle Eastern countries by Iran. [4:58] So Pakistan has been maintaining its relations very well. [5:02] That's why Pakistan was chosen as the lead negotiator and mediator by both warring parties, because they both trust Pakistan. [5:12] Pakistan has been able to do it very maturely and in a very balancing manner. [5:18] But who is driving the negotiations for Pakistan? [5:20] Is it the military or is it the civilian government? [5:26] I think it is both. [5:27] It is both on both sides because the civilian government, the military diplomacy, the overall diplomacy of the country. [5:36] I think both are actually complementing each other. [5:39] They both have good contacts with different factions in the warring parties in the countries that have been in the conflict. [5:48] So we are making use of every effort, everything that we have in our kitty to make it happen. [5:56] So it's a combination of both. [5:57] And it's a very successful combination. [6:00] You can see that ceasefire looked very difficult, but it happened. [6:04] And with the ceasefire, the hopes for further negotiations and coming to an agreement which is acceptable to all, [6:13] those hopes have become higher. [6:16] Yeah, hopes are higher, but it's nonetheless going to be some very complex negotiations, Admiral. [6:22] And I know that you've spent some years in Iran as a naval and air attache there. [6:27] How do you view Tehran's position going into these negotiations? [6:31] I think I feel that Iranians are very deft in diplomacy. [6:40] They can handle the pressure also. [6:42] And that's what has been very vivid and obvious before the ceasefire also till last time. [6:49] They were adamant on having their agenda points furthered, but then they accepted the ceasefire deal. [7:00] I believe that the utmost requirement of Iranians is the guarantee that the war will not be imposed upon them after a few months. [7:08] They just don't want the respite. [7:10] They want a complete cessation of hostilities for a good time. [7:15] They would also not like to, I think, give concessions on the ballistic missile capability. [7:23] That's what I feel, because it's part and parcel of their defense. [7:28] Without it, they will be very, very vulnerable. [7:30] But they have the desire of mutual coexistence in the region, and that's what they want for them, and that's what they want for everybody else. [7:41] They may like to have concessions on so many other things, which they had already made in JCPOA also in 2015, by the way. [7:49] And there were reports also that before 28 February, while the negotiations were going on, they had made concessions to many of the demands of the U.S., and that's why the negotiations were going in a favorable direction until on 28 February attack was launched on Iran. [8:08] So I feel that they are very sensible and mature people. [8:12] I believe that they are going to act according to their ground realities and their future, prosperous future of Iran as well as of the region. [8:23] Admiral, thank you so much for speaking to us. [8:24] Thank you for sharing your views. [8:26] That's retired Raya Admiral Saeed Faisal Ali Shah joining us from Islamabad.