Next steps uncertain for boats stuck in Strait of Hormuz

[0:00] Well, for more, let's bring in maritime law and security expert Ian Ralby, also former U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Mark Wallace, who's also the CEO of the group United Against Nuclear Iran. [0:11] So, Ian, we've witnessed dramatic change almost daily. [0:14] You've been on with us almost daily talking about those changes. [0:17] So what is actually happening on the water in the Strait of Hormuz at this hour? [0:23] Well, not a whole lot. [0:26] We've seen over the course of the last few days two U.S. flag vessels leave the Gulf. [0:31] And that is good news in some regards. [0:33] But the problem is that the Project Freedom announcement indicated that it was for neutral vessels. [0:37] U.S. flag vessels are not neutral vessels because we are a belligerent party to this armed conflict. [0:42] And so that means that none of the actual vessels about which this project was focused actually were able to get out. [0:49] And in fact, five of them seem to have sustained some kind of damage. [0:52] One was actually hit quite badly, injuring some of the crew. [0:56] And so the confidence level of the U.S. statements from the standpoint of both the shipping lines and the insurers is actually lower than it was even a few days ago. [1:05] And so that means that we're likely to see everybody sitting on their hands for a while. [1:10] Ambassador, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Iran can't be allowed to normalize control of the Strait of Hormuz. [1:17] He also announced this new draft resolution before the U.N. Security Council to defend freedom of navigation in the Strait. [1:24] Are you concerned that this could already be the new normal? [1:28] And could that resolution actually lead to something? [1:32] Thank you for having me on, Cara. [1:33] It's a great question. [1:34] And I'm delighted to be on with Ian as well. [1:35] Look, I think that for many, many years, as Ian knows, for 47 years, you've seen that Iran has charged effectively attacks on the global economy because of threats, harassment, seizures of vessels. [1:50] And you're seeing an effort now to no longer allow the number one state sponsor of terrorism, Iran, control the Strait of Hormuz. [1:58] I think that there were some efforts to pressure our NATO allies and some of our allies because we did escort those U.S. flag vessels through the straits. [2:07] And now the question is, OK, who and what other countries are going to be escorted through in the prioritization of that? [2:13] There's an entire contingent in Bahrain of naval officers designed to coordinate with the maritime industry. [2:19] And we haven't seen a ramping up of that just yet. [2:23] So I think you might see some sort of agreement to buy time. [2:26] I don't see Iran coming to the table on limiting its nuclear energy, nuclear proliferation program or its supportive proxies, terror and ballistic missiles. [2:38] So I think you might see a kicking of the can down the road to open up some breathing space to allow the global economy to settle. [2:45] But I think you're also seeing Iran truly suffer in its own economy. [2:49] Right now, there's a significant oil slick being reported outside of Karg Island. [2:54] That suggests something's amiss on Karg Island. [2:57] We know that Iran's achieving real capacity, has real struggles with their storage capacity and their offloading capacity right now. [3:04] So I think Iran is in a difficult spot, more difficult than the West. [3:09] OK, so taking all that into account, Ian, do you agree? [3:12] And for the short time that Project Freedom was active, you know, what, if anything, was accomplished? [3:19] Well, I think it garnered a little bit of enthusiasm more politically than it did practically, [3:24] because a lot of the shipping industry did not know what was going on. [3:27] And as you heard from the ambassador, there was not a huge amount of clear coordination in order to actually facilitate any kind of exodus. [3:35] We do see Iran struggling, but we also see Iran managing to maintain a chokehold on this chokepoint. [3:40] And one of the things that I think is really important to keep in mind is that even without a navy, [3:44] it is possible to maintain a blockage of a maritime causeway. [3:49] The pirates didn't have a navy, and yet they created all kinds of challenge. [3:53] The Houthis didn't have a navy, yet they have essentially contained the Red Sea to minimal traffic for about three years. [4:00] The Ukrainians even had barely a navy, and yet they've sunk most of the Russian Federation navy. [4:04] So that's a real problem, at least in the Black Sea, I should note. [4:09] But that's a real problem for us in the long term. [4:11] So militarily, this is going to be impossible to end on the water. [4:16] It has to be a change in the will. [4:18] And right now, Iran still has a strong will to maintain as much leverage over the world as it can, [4:25] given that the Strait of Hormuz has proven to be the main point that it allows for a degree of leverage over the United States. [4:32] Well, that's a powerful line, impossible to end on the water. [4:35] So, Ambassador, one day President Trump says he's sending Iran to the Stone Age. [4:39] Then the next day, he's putting things on pause. [4:42] We're more than 60 days in here. [4:44] The Strait is blocked. [4:45] The IRGC is still in charge. [4:48] Iran still has its nuclear materials. [4:51] You know, do Trump's threats mean anything to Iran right now? [4:55] And what has the president really achieved here at this point? [4:58] You know, I think the political rhetoric, because of the polarization in the United States, is hot. [5:03] And I think that, you know, there are critics of the president and supporters of the president. [5:07] But you have to look, really, at this military operation and intel operation. [5:11] There is no doubt that the military campaign against Iran and its decimation of its leadership, [5:17] the decimation of its military facilities, the burying of its fissile material deep underground and inaccessible to them, [5:25] has been an enormous success. [5:27] The question is, what is long-term? [5:29] I don't think that there is a clear long-term future for the Iranian regime, and they are, in fact, desperate. [5:34] I think the analogy of piracy is quite apt, because I think Iran is resorting to a piracy-type standard in the Strait of Hormuz. [5:43] And I would note, as Ian correctly pointed out, we dealt with piracy in other areas, and ultimately we continue. [5:51] Lost him again. [5:52] Lost all comms, peeps. [5:54] All right. [5:57] We lost a little. [5:58] Oh, wait. [5:58] We hear him back. [5:59] Mark, are you still there? [6:00] I don't know why it's cutting in and out. [6:03] There we go. [6:04] I got you, Mark. [6:05] I got you, Mark. [6:06] Just your final thought. [6:07] Yep, you came back. [6:08] Sorry about that. [6:08] The Strait of Hormuz is very much a piracy analogy. [6:13] We've been able to contain pirates in the past, and I think we can do it again. [6:17] Got it. [6:17] All right. [6:18] Ian Ralby, Ambassador Mark Wallace, it was great to have you two together. [6:21] Such fabulous insight and perspective. [6:23] Thanks, guys.