New wave of Southern states scramble to redraw congressional maps ahead of midterms

[0:00] The Supreme Court ruling against drawing congressional maps to protect black or other [0:04] minority voters has sparked a new wave in the ongoing redistricting war. Our congressional [0:10] correspondent Lisa Desjardins joins me now. She's back at the super screen for a look at where [0:15] things stand. So, Lisa, walk us through it. How has the map changed in the last month? [0:19] I mean, this is a historic moment in terms of how we draw our political lines. It could easily [0:24] become a blur. So let's start, first of all, with where this is happening. Let's go back, [0:29] oh, even a whole month ago. This is what the map looked like. You see these four states that were [0:34] redrawing toward Republicans' favor, two that had maps that were moving toward Democrats' favor. [0:40] You can notice these were all over the country. Then something happened two weeks ago. We saw [0:45] action in Virginia. Voters there passed a Democratic-leaning map. And in Florida, the governor [0:50] and legislature moved to put in place Republican-leaning maps. That was two weeks ago. Then we [0:56] had last week's Supreme Court decision. Look at how this changes things. Now we have four more states [1:02] interested in remapping. And look at that shape. It used to be this debate was spread out all over [1:09] the country. But now we see a real focus on one region of the country, the South. That is the [1:15] where. Now let's talk about what this means. All of this remapping is really about just changing the odds. [1:21] It's not a guarantee of picking up seats. But let's talk about how those odds could play out. [1:26] First of all, these are the states that have new maps in place right now. This is the maximum amount [1:32] of seats Republicans can gain, the maximum for Democrats. Essentially, it's a wash, especially [1:37] because many of these Republican seats are more risky. They're going to be harder for Republicans [1:42] to pick up. Now, let's add in if those four states in the conversation because of the Supreme Court [1:48] do redistrict. What happens? Look at this. Republicans increase their odds significantly. [1:54] What it means is they have more of a chance of gaining on net, Omnia, because of redistricting. [1:59] You used the word if a lot. Seems like there's a lot of uncertainty still ahead, even with just [2:04] months to go before those midterm elections. So what happens next? [2:07] I think I can clear this up. Think of the states in play right now in two ways. First, [2:12] the states that are having court battles. I want to focus on three, the state of Virginia. We're [2:17] waiting on the state Supreme Court to rule on the map there. Florida. Florida has a law banning [2:23] partisan gerrymandering. So no surprise, there are lawsuits there. We'll watch courts. [2:28] Now, Louisiana. How about this? Early primary voting is underway. The governor has moved to [2:35] suspend it for House races. But that's why we have lawsuits in place in Louisiana. We could get [2:40] information on any of these as soon as this week. Now, let's talk about places you should be watching [2:46] the legislatures. First, Tennessee and Alabama, both of these states holding special sessions right now [2:53] to talk about redistricting. Alabama, notable that they also need help from the Supreme Court, [2:59] needs to lift a previous injunction. But they are acting as if they will get that action from the [3:04] Supreme Court. Finally, Mississippi. How about this? Their primary was in March for those House [3:10] races. Those candidates are running their races for the fall. But there is a special session there [3:15] coming up in May. Lisa, what does ultimately all of this mean when it comes to minority [3:20] representation, which the Voting Rights Act was meant to protect? That's right. Now, this is a debate [3:25] over, of course. But when you look at it in net, if all of this were to take place, it is highly [3:31] likely that we'd see fewer black and brown members of Congress next year. One of those [3:35] members of Congress whose district is likely targeted is in Alabama. That's Terry Sewell. [3:41] It will not only suppress minority votes in the halls of Congress, but it will erode minority [3:46] representation in state houses, city councils, and even school boards across this nation. [3:52] Now, one way to look at this is about the current composition of these delegations. Red, [3:56] these are the red Republican members of Congress from each state, blue Democrats. Why does that [4:02] matter? Many of these blue districts are majority minority districts drawn in part because of the [4:08] Voting Rights Act. Many of these are black members of Congress. Keep your eye on the center of this [4:13] screen, and you can see what happens if all of the redistricting that Republicans want goes into [4:18] place. Those blue districts disappear. Now, Republicans say they think this is more fair. They want to take [4:23] race out of it. And they say they would like to recruit. They're hopeful that perhaps they can get [4:28] some black and brown candidates. But if they don't, those who support the Voting Rights Act say [4:33] this would be a historic shift. We would see far fewer black and brown members of Congress. Perhaps [4:39] the red and blue balance might not change, but the balance in terms of who is in Congress by race could. [4:46] Now, you'll continue to follow this story in the weeks and months ahead. Lisa Desjardins, [4:49] thank you very much. You're welcome. Support journalism you trust. Support PBS News. Donate now, [5:07] or even better, start a monthly contribution today.