New poll shows Dems ahead in 5 of 7 critical Senate races

[0:00] A wave of new polls that could point to just that. A wave. New numbers from the New York Times and [0:07] Siena, which if they are reflected on Election Day, the Democrats would take the Senate with [0:12] room to spare. Leads in five matchups. Again, these are polls. We will see what happens ultimately [0:19] by the end of tomorrow. But one notable race here is Michigan, where the Democrat Abdul Al-Sayed [0:25] leads by 11 points. That's the biggest we've seen there. It was taken before the stunning move by [0:33] Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens abruptly flipping her endorsement from Al-Sayed to Republican [0:39] Mike Rogers. I want to spell out for you just what it would mean if these polls are accurate for [0:46] control of the Senate. I'm going to ask for forgiveness from the southeastern part of the [0:50] country. I'm going to cover it up here. But before I do that, let me just point out one thing. This is [0:53] how Cook, the Cook Political Report, rates these races with the yellow states being the ones that [0:58] are toss-ups. They don't even consider North Carolina a toss-up anymore. If Democrats win there, [1:04] and most people will tell you, it's a pretty safe bet they will, that will be one flip already for [1:08] the Democrats. So let me put this back here. A reminder, Democrats need 51 seats. 51 seats to [1:15] control the U.S. Senate. I'm just going to go down this New York Times polling to show you what that [1:19] would mean. In Michigan, okay, in Michigan, Al-Sayed leads by 11 points. So you give that to them. [1:26] Texas, James Tallarico leads by seven points. All of a sudden, with those pretty sizable leads, [1:32] Democrats are already at 49 seats. They need two more. Keep going down the list. In Maine, [1:37] Troy Jackson up by six points. They're at 50. So Democrats would need just one more of Ohio, Iowa, [1:45] Kansas, or Alaska. They lead by five points in both Ohio and in Kansas. So all of a sudden, [1:53] Democrats are at 52. They actually have what they need to control the U.S. Senate, [1:58] and then some. Then there are two states left, and I know these are very close, [2:02] considered toss-ups right now. But just for argument's sake, give them both the Democrats [2:06] there. Then Democrats would be at 54 seats. Democrats would be ecstatic to get 51, let alone 54. [2:13] And then, if you're doing the mind-blowing scenarios, right, I'll get rid of this. [2:17] There was a New York Times poll out last week that had South Carolina tied. Say South Carolina, [2:22] meaning, you know, say Democrats managed to eke that one out, they'd be at 55. And then there are [2:27] a lot of Democrats looking at Mississippi right now. So look, this is sort of the moonshot for [2:33] Democrats now. Probably beyond what they can actually achieve. But you see, if some of these polls [2:39] are right, it could spell a very good day for them. [2:43] CNN's Harry Enten running the numbers on this. And of course, the only polls that matter are the [2:48] polls on Election Day. Yes. But if these numbers hold, what does it show? [2:53] Yeah, what does it show? You know, we're going to go here and we're going to show you [2:56] what those numbers indicate. Okay, we've got five of the races here where Democrats hold an advantage. [3:01] And with the exception of Maine, these are all states that Donald Trump carried [3:05] back in 2024. Looking to Michigan, all the talk about that with Abdul Al-Sayed and Mike Rogers. [3:10] But Al-Sayed up 11. Texas, James Tallarico up seven. How about Maine? [3:15] Susan Collins in big trouble. Troy Jackson up six. Ohio, six. Sherrod Brown, Kansas five, [3:19] which hasn't elected a Democratic senator since Babe Ruth called a shot back in 1932. [3:24] And then when there are two other races where the races are quite tight, [3:27] and that is Alaska and Iowa. No clear leader here, but I guess the nominal advantage goes [3:33] to the Democrats slightly. One Alaska, one in Iowa. What does that do to the map? [3:37] Well, it does this to the map. Take a look at this. Okay. Boom. We go from 47 Democrats all the [3:43] way up to 54 Democrats. That would be a net gain of seven seats. All of these states would go blue. [3:50] Of course, you need 51 for Democrats for control. But at those times, polls are right. 51 ain't nothing. [3:56] It could be all the way up to 54. Yeah. If these polls hold through Election Day, [4:01] this is like dream-a-vision land for Democrats. But this also gets to the broader conversation [4:08] of the long-held view that Republicans are underestimated, undercounted when it comes [4:12] to polling. What do you have? Yeah. Okay. So, you know, this whole idea, okay, maybe, [4:17] maybe the polls are underestimating Republicans. And that has happened. That has happened in [4:21] Trump-won states during Trump's first term, his second term, and then in between. Take a look [4:26] at here. GOP has beat the final set of polling average in close races in states Trump won in the [4:31] prior election. Look at this. By 4.1 points. By 4.1 points on average. And I will note the times [4:37] polls are kind of right up there in the sky of how good Democrats could potentially do. [4:41] The averages are closer. So let's just say that, in fact, we do get these polling errors, [4:46] and the GOP is, in fact, underestimated. What might that do? Well, it might do something like [4:50] this. Hello. Okay. You go from all of a sudden, Democrats fall significantly from 54 seats down [4:56] to 49. Why? Because Alaska goes red. Texas goes red. Kansas goes red. Ohio goes red. And so I think [5:03] that people should keep in mind that polls are just tools. There are definitely scenarios that are out [5:08] there in which Republicans could very well hold the United States Senate. And do the flip side. [5:12] And what's the scenario if Democrats are underestimated? Yeah. What if Democrats are [5:16] underestimated? Well, you know, keep this in mind. Take a look at Dems beating their final Senate poll [5:22] averages. If you look at midterms during the Trump era, 2018, 2022, 2018 Democrats are actually more [5:28] likely to be underestimated by the polls, slightly more likely. And look at 2022. In all of the close [5:34] Senate races, Democrats were underestimated. They were underestimated. So this idea that a poll [5:39] error would necessarily benefit Republicans, that doesn't hold true to history. So what might [5:43] happen if, in fact, Democrats were underestimated? Well, we can do that right here. And look at this. [5:48] Democrats get all the way up to 55 seats. Why 55? Because take a look here. What turns blue? [5:54] How about South Carolina, which has not elected a Democratic senator since Fritz Hollings back in [5:59] 1998? So the bottom line is this. There is a wide range of scenarios that are possible. I'd rather be in [6:05] the Democrats' position than the Republicans. But the bottom line is either party could, in fact, [6:10] win the United States Senate with actual relative ease. There's just a wide range of scenarios out [6:14] there. There is a wide range. This is really interesting how you play this out, though, [6:18] Harry. And what we will all need to wait and see what happens. We will wait and see. The voters will [6:22] have their say soon enough. And then about the polls. [6:25] With us now, Republican strategist Neil Chatterjee and CNN political commentator Karen Finney, [6:29] I'm going to move from Texas to Michigan, which is obviously what everyone is talking about right [6:34] now. And I want to put up this poll from The New York Times and Siena, just so people know [6:39] the backdrop here. You know, Albalo El-Sayed is seen as leading, albeit this poll was taken before [6:44] the news from Haley Stevens over the weekend. And Karen, let me start with you, because look, [6:49] I know Democrats are unhappy with Haley Stevens. I know there's been a lot of back and forth [6:53] about Haley Stevens in the last day, but you've worked on a lot of campaigns. [6:57] Isn't it the job of the campaign, in this case, the El-Sayed campaign, to make sure something [7:03] like this doesn't happen? I mean, how would a campaign normally try to take care of something [7:08] like this before Saturday and Sunday? Well, here's what I'd say. There's clearly, I mean, [7:17] there's additional reporting that's come out over the last several hours because that's how fast [7:22] the story has been moving. You heard the congresswoman say she's concerned for Haley Stevens. [7:29] So there's some other, there are clearly some other things going on there for her. You know, [7:34] normally there, sure, there's a cooling off period and then you come back together and unify. [7:40] But here's the thing, John, you have to have a willing participant. And, you know, reporting [7:46] indicates that Haley was not willing to, for example, you know, she had a big rift with [7:53] Mami Morrow after that primary. So hard to know whether or not she was a good faith actor [8:00] in trying to unify. But look, what I think is more important, I agree with the congresswoman. [8:06] You know, the advertising, the mudslinging, the Islamophobia, the anti-Semitism has really drawn, [8:14] you know, open wounds and tried to divide people. And one of the things I was so pleased to see [8:21] yesterday was just totally unity on the part of the Democratic Party in Michigan and particularly [8:29] the black community. I have to tell you, I heard from a lot of black leaders on the ground [8:32] who were not happy that Haley Stevens chose to use a black church as the backdrop for her [8:40] endorsement of Mike Rogers. And that actually further emboldened people to want to get out [8:47] and vote for Abdul. So, Neil, I've left this up there to sort of loom over the conversation, [8:53] this latest New York Times-Siena poll, which shows Abdul, I'll say, was an 11-point lead, [8:56] albeit before the Haley Stevens news. CNN had a poll last week which showed Alcaya's lead [9:01] growing as well. And inside these polls, enormous disapproval for President Trump and also rising [9:07] negatives for Mike Rogers. So my question to you is, how much do you think this will really matter, [9:13] given this political environment? Yeah, look, I mean, a lot of this, it all depends on, you know, [9:21] the accuracy of the polling, whether the map, the money, the structural advantages that Republicans [9:27] have in some states hold. I'll tell you, this has been a tough, you know, kind of doom and gloom [9:34] campaign season for those of us on the Republican side because of the president's approval ratings, [9:39] because of some of the polls we've been seeing. But the vibe really shifted this weekend. I have [9:44] to just tell you, amongst, you know, Republican politicos, the New York Times breaking the double [9:49] Dan Stevens story in Alaska, you know, casting light on that race and what lengths Democrats would go [9:56] to, quite frankly, what I thought was interesting isn't even so much that Haley Stevens endorsed Mike [10:02] Rogers. It's the vitriol that she faced yesterday. You know, what happened to people putting country [10:08] over party? We're supposed to praise that. But when someone actually does that, she's just brutally [10:15] savage by folks criticizing her, saying there's too much on the line. You've got to put party over [10:20] country. A lot of Republicans who may be dissatisfied with the Trump administration and congressional [10:27] Republicans right now, they see that. That could motivate them to show up on Tuesday. Like, man, [10:33] these guys will go to any lengths to gain power. I may be a little bit unhappy or unmotivated to vote [10:40] today. But gosh, if the other side is so thirsty for power, maybe I need to show up and do my part [10:46] for my party as well. All right, let's let's follow up on that a little bit. I'm going to circle [10:51] Michigan and Alaska, or I'm going to move the entire country and then circle Michigan and Alaska here [10:56] and talk about them. There has been focus on those two states over the last few days. So closing in [11:01] on Election Day, the focus may be largely on those two states, but 25 seconds or less from each of [11:06] you. First to you, Karen, given that there's focus on Michigan and Alaska, how effective a campaign [11:10] tactic is it for President Trump to go to the reflecting pool today to, you know, focus the [11:16] country on his construction projects, which they've been telling pollsters all year round they don't [11:21] like? Right. I have to tell you, I had to read it twice to make sure I was reading that correctly. [11:30] Wow. Okay. Thank you, Donald Trump. You're doing our job for us as a closing message to remind [11:36] people why they are so angry at this president and why, as the Wall Street Journal poll found, [11:42] people want a check on his power and they want an end of the war in Iran. And with Democrats, [11:48] they're going to get it. Neil, to you, are there places you'd rather see him today than the [11:52] reflecting pool? I'd rather see him there than in Maine, for sure, or Michigan, quite frankly. And [12:02] look, I think this works. I think this will gin up the Republican base in the red states where [12:08] Republicans need turnout. And it keeps him away from the blue states and the purple states where [12:14] I'm certain the candidates in those states probably want to show some independence from him. And I put [12:20] Iowa and Ohio in that category as well. So I think this actually does work as a strategy to both gin up [12:27] the base, but give some cushion to your more moderate candidates. And it will no doubt gin [12:33] up the base among supporters who care about algae blooms as well. Neil Chatterjee, Karen Finney, [12:38] so good to see both of you. One of the things that I like in the closing days of the campaign is we're [12:42] all so tired and punch drunk that we tend to say a lot of things that make me smile. Great to see [12:47] both of you.