(New) CPI Data Inflation Report Live Stream!

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: hey what's going on guys it's Ricky so CPI data report is today it's going to be released in the next two minutes I wanted to go live very quickly and talk about what the market's expectation or their forecast is so very very simple you could find this every single time before it comes out on what the market is expecting either through your economic calendars this one says a point two percent increase that's going to be for the month of December because it gets reported on the following month now January or investing.com tells you the overall expectation previous 3.1 so they actually expect inflation to go up to 3.2 so this report can actually be found on bls.gov forward slash CPI we've broken it down many times where remember they're just adding the new month then taking away the old month so an increase of 0.2 with taking away 0.1 again you could kind of come up with a obscure math there's actually an exact formula on how this CPI data the inflation report I'm sorry the inflation rate is calculated so it's not just adding all of these up adding one and taking one away it's just a way to get a rough estimate without using that exact formula so they expect an increase of point two percent in the month of December they take away point one percent difference is around point one so again that's just something to take into consideration but this should be released any second now we have about 20 seconds until this CPI data report is released if the report comes out better than what's expected so lower the market could rally if it comes out higher than what's expected market could drop pretty hard so let's go ahead and see what the market factors in today so we will be breaking it down again I want to keep today's video short and sweet and here it goes pulling on back I love that let me go to my recent let's get a TQQQ I'd love to buy some all right buying a thousand shares let's see how low we go let's see what it comes up comes out with three point four significantly higher than what is expected and this is what I wanted to see because everyone thinks that okay the Federal Reserve is just going to be cutting interest rates right from the very start this does not support a rate cut by any means this supports a potential pause but this shows that inflation is actually going up more than or quicker than what is expected so from the eyes of the Federal Reserve the reason that the market is dropping right so Nasdaq is dropping right now this simply shows me that oh wow okay inflation is actually stickier than what was expected so is the Federal Reserve still going to cut interest rates I don't see how they could justify cutting interest rates when the inflation report is actually coming out higher than what is expected so here's the January release says all items um yep so this is index for all items this should be everything let me double check yeah we have three point all items uh including food and energy 3.4 percent and then let's check out core energy I want to see if the PDF is available right away looks like we have a handful of things dropping right now here it goes January so we have December at the expectation was a point two percent increase this is a point three we're taking away the previous month and then again what is our inflation rate it's super easy to read this once you actually find the line item so all items come out at three point four percent inflation for the last 12 months and then it should have core CPI which is all items less food and energy rose three point nine percent in the last 12 months so where does this show us it shows that uh all items less food and energy so core CPI is actually dropping overall CPI is actually rising and greater than what was expected so I really like this I'm gonna go ahead and continue to dollar cost average into it um not that it has to recover right now but we know how bullish the market has been it tries to justify and find any reason to try to go up um so I wouldn't be surprised if even though it is bad news it's not good news for the market of what was just released so what was core CPI again I want all of you guys to have access to this this is I don't right this is one thing that I love to do on my channel is we love to show you the websites that we use that's available to the public where these reports get released if you're someone that's trying to copy someone every step of the way and you don't want to do any of the work yourself I'm letting you know letting you know now you should probably just quit this is not a market where you're going to be spoon fed every step of the way and you do no work this is a market that's challenging and if you really want to understand how this works then you need to put in the work right so bls.gov forward slash CPI tomorrow is going to the uh to be the PPI data report which is the producer price index report uh you can see that overall CPI came in higher than what's expected core CPI higher than what was expected but we also have initial claims and continuing claims that was released initial claims are the number of people that are following for the first time came in at 202 which was less than what was expected continuing claims are people that have continued to file for unemployment came in a little bit lower than what was the prior here it goes already beginning to recover let's see if we show steady signs of progress uh the stock that he bought goes up when the market goes down no this is TQQQ I'm going with the market right now so I'm not trying to short the market right now I think you have my position confused so Ricky why are you going long if it's bad news it might sound confusing but and again it doesn't have to go this way what has the market been doing for the past few days it's been finding any any reason any and every reason to go up what has the market been doing for the past year it's been finding any reason to go up so although it is bad news it's not horrible news it's just a little bit worse than what was expected I just think that again the Federal Reserve is going to pause instead of cut interest rates which um there it goes which really um isn't detrimental to the company isn't detrimental to the market so when I saw that it sold off in my eyes it's been finding any reason to try to recover so just like we've seen in the past before when it sells off and then it quickly recovers shortly after this doesn't surprise me that it trades this way remember as as you continue to watch the market right I haven't traded TQs and SQs in about a week a week and a half right I've been too busy shorting the crap out of coin or going long yesterday right you guys saw my $32,000 day yesterday um on on coin I've been paying attention to NASDAQ and I've been paying attention to TQQ but I haven't really been trading it so but I've been um I've been well aware that this has been a constant characteristic of TQQ and NASDAQ that anytime that it pulls on back and it's an overreaction like this during any economic report it will find right it sold off all pre-market yesterday but right when the market opens it rallies it finds any reason to try to continue to recover right the I mean I don't I don't want to like really get into that but it's 2024 and there's a presidential election the current president in power needs everything to be in his favor for the possibility of him getting reelected the stock market being one of them right so it doesn't surprise me that the market the stock market as a whole is thriving does it make sense? does it make sense? yeah kind of right inflation is going down kind of not according to today but it is going down and are we going to get this like idea of interest rates understood and together [00:09:35] Speaker ?: right? [00:09:35] Speaker 1: right? so we can drop interest rates so demand begins to pick up not just with real estate but with the entire economy as a whole I think this is more discouraging for people that were waiting for lower interest rates because based off of what report was just released right now with the CPI data report it doesn't support the case that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates anytime soon it's showing that inflation went from 3.1% and it jumped all the way to 3.4% I mean we can go down the list right? we can go down the list breaking down each line item that either saw an increase or a decrease for the month of December and that's fine right? December line item so again this is food this is energy and then these are all the other items we pull it on back right now yep looks like we got rejected still selling off right now so again doesn't have to make a full recovery and margin and the spread on this isn't even that big I want to double check to see if we can 2.73% it's not bad it's not something that I would be you know upset and getting myself [00:10:47] Speaker ?: so [00:10:49] Speaker 1: we have it here a thousand shares all right got filled at $49.99 still dropping right now so one thing that I do just a little trick I've shared it in LPP but for those that are watching you might be asking Ricky what the heck? why are you buying with a limit order at $50.40 when the bid and the ask is at $50.02 or $50.05? remember if I don't if the spread isn't too big and all I want to focus on is getting filled with my order and it's during pre-market or aftermarket hour during extended hours I just make sure that my limit price is higher than both to ensure that I instantly get filled and it's not that I'm going to get filled at $50.40 I'm going to still get filled in between or at the ask but I get filled right away without having to type in the exact ask price each time so just a little heads up on that but yeah so not this time bulls are trapped okay that's great because we could all have our own opinions and that's fine if I don't see this as a bull trap [00:12:11] Speaker ?: right [00:12:11] Speaker 1: I mean it's it's a report that came in a little bit hotter than what is expected and if you think that the market is going to continue to sell off today all power to you wish you nothing but the best so let's go ahead and go down these line items what do you guys like me to break it down or you want me to end the live stream here I'll leave it up leave it up to you guys do you guys want me to break down the CPI data report and how they came up with 3.4% and what contributed to our inflation rate or do we just want to leave it here so make sure you drop a thumbs up how many of you guys do we have here I have no idea we have about a thousand of you okay so let's see if we can get this video to 500 likes is that too much to ask I don't even know how many likes we currently have but break it down okay again if it's not too much to ask we'd obviously appreciate you dropping a thumbs up on this video it helps out the channel so you guys can let me know where we are at with the likes on this live stream okay okay [00:13:25] Speaker ?: that's fine we'll do it well I'll do it quick okay [00:13:29] Speaker 1: I don't want to take too much of your guys's time and we need to prepare for the LPP live session anyway so again this is a CPI data reports a monthly inflation report monthly that is released every single month normally it's released anywhere from like the 9th to the 14th of the month okay just so you know the second thing that I want you to know is that inflation has been a really big focus for the Federal Reserve inflation was at a 40 year high when it hit highs of 9.1% it's been on a steady decline until recently where we hit lows of right around 3% 3.1% and we've been kind of consolidating almost like a stock right at this support of 3% but this resistance at 4% and this was the big thing that I've been bringing up is that well if inflation doesn't continue to go down can the Federal Reserve justify interest rate cuts so they were raising interest rates they've recently paused at least for the previous four meetings and this is during the FOMC meeting so now the question is after this report is the Federal Reserve going to pause or are they going to cut interest rates if this report since this report came out hotter than what is expected meaning inflation is higher the Federal Reserve shouldn't have any reason to justify cutting interest rates because they can cut interest rates if inflation is continuing to go down and inflation is cooling but that's not the case of what we are seeing happen right now so what items contributed to this inflation rate being higher so let's go and break it down again this is super easy to read this is the column of December and then these are the line items so for all items right we saw an increase of 0.3% for food we saw an increase of 0.2% food at home an increase of 0.1 an increase of food away from home an increase of 0.3 and it goes down the list right we have gas gas is on I said I would say that gas is most consistently the largest contributor to why either inflation is going up or down it's the one that fluctuates the most and it's the one that contributed the most when inflation was at 9.1% you guys remember when gas prices were all five six seven dollars a gallon this is something that caught that inflation month after month so you can see that the largest drop that we saw on this entire month for all these line items are fuel oil fuel oil saw a decrease of 5.5% and the one that I wanted to pay attention to but again it goes down the list we got fuel oil we have electricity saw an increase we have what is that I'm sorry electricity saw an increase of 1.3% energy services saw an increase of 0.9% we have utility gas pipe services saw a decrease of 0.4% and that right here we have all items less food and energy an increase of 0.3% then we go down the list commodities we see no change right here we have new vehicles saw an increase so this is one of the first months and I'm actually seeing this in real life right if you ever pay attention to car prices this is for you know new new vehicles so new vehicles we saw an increase of 0.3% meaning that inflation is going up on that month over month but used cars and trucks actually saw an increase of 0.5% so two months in a row car prices are going back up something to take into consideration all the other months we were seeing a steady decline this is why you saw a lot of cars beginning to go down and the really cool thing about this is that this is real life data right so if you are in the market for potentially buying a new vehicle then again or used vehicle this tells you okay inflation because it was on a steady decline with new and used vehicles now inflation is kind of finding its support and beginning to pick it back up that means that we should start seeing used and new vehicle car prices go back up again this is kind of exciting for those that have been trying to maybe hold off on selling one of their vehicles something to take into consideration but then again it goes down the list one of the only declines that we saw here was medical care commodities everything else was an increase here we see services less energy services saw an increase of 0.4% shelter increase of 0.5% transportation services an increase of 0.1% and medical care services an increase of 0.7% so again all together saw an increase of 0.3% December saw an increase of 0.3% whoo excuse me but yep that is the overall inflation report I'm just going to type it out in our live chat so CPI 3.4% overall and what was it what was it for core all items less food and energy came in at 3.9% for core okay so just when anyone begins to ask what did the report come in at what did the report come in at now you guys all know very simple to understand it's a CPI data report it simply tracks if inflation is going up or down and inflation has been a really big focus for the Federal Reserve right because they've been debating are we going to continue to pause or are we going to begin to cut interest rates so if this inflation report came in lower than what was expected right so the expectation was 3.2 if we came in at 3.1 or if we came in at you know 3% 2.9 the market would be booming right now right market would be making higher highs higher lows all that good stuff because it's not so much about the inflation report but it's about what it means for us if that report came in lower than what's expected then the Federal Reserve can justify cutting interest rates sooner than later now what you should be seeing with a bunch of news headlines them talking about that inflation is sticky them talking about that inflation you know is holding at a higher level or went up and that the Federal Reserve cannot justify cutting interest rates and possibly just continue to pause maybe they could even entertain the idea of raising interest rates but I don't really think that's going to happen as according to the last FOMC meeting Jerome Powell said nothing about raising interest rates alright can the market sell off today at open market can do whatever it wants it should never be a what if but again I mean I don't see why it would right but can it of course of course it can anything can always happen but as of right now the main economic report was the CPI data report the other few reports that we still have left for the remainder of the day is the EIA natural gas inventory report and the Treasury budget at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time tomorrow it's going to be the PPI report which is inflation on the producing side of things or production but right now markets just consolidating we're still rejected by the EMA so it's not showing signs of a recovery so it doesn't really make much sense I mean there's no active trade as of right now which is a thing that I'm beginning to realize so if we do get closer to that EMA line I'll probably reduce my position size on TPPQ that I bought down here reduce the position and then if we break above EMA then I can always choose to re-enter but we'll talk a little bit more about my trades during today's live trading session with the LPP team so again I did link it you don't have to join if you don't want to but I do trade live with them every morning I trade live with one team and one team only and that is my LPP team it's going to be that second link in the description down below I believe the link that we have there right now is 50% off and I can reassure you we will never offer a larger discount than 50% 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from our store gets you automatically entered for a chance to win this Tesla that ends in less it literally ends in 10 days from now January 21st is the cutoff so if you want to enter for your chance to win that is shoptechbunds.com or the fourth link in the description down below I appreciate your time like always let's make sure that we end the year on a green note take care team