New CNN poll shows unexpected shifts in 4 key Senate races

[0:00] Seeing blue brand new CNN polls and races that could decide who controls the Senate with results [0:06] Democrats will like across the board. In Texas, Democrat James Tallarico leaves Republican Ken [0:12] Paxson by six points. This would be a major flip. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas [0:18] in three decades. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul Al-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by seven [0:25] points. This is a significant shift back around Labor Day. There was no clear leader here for [0:31] Democrats. Holding on to Michigan is essential in their Senate math. In deep red, Kansas, Democrat [0:37] Adam Hamilton is at 49% to 45% for Republican incumbent Roger Marshall. This is within the [0:45] margin of error, but still a blaring warning sign for Republicans in a state that should be safe [0:50] territory and not where they want to be spending time, effort and money. And in Maine, Democrat [0:56] Troy Jackson is at 49%. The incumbent Republican Susan Collins is at 45%. This too is within [1:03] the margin of error. Collins has been able to hang on in the past when there have been years [1:07] favorable to Democrats. Can she do it one more time? But again, across the boards in these [1:13] numbers that we've seen from these four states, Democrats will see a path to the majority. [1:19] All right, with us now is seen in Washington, bureau chief and political director David [1:24] Charlie. David, there are tons of headlines in these polls that we just released a couple [1:30] hours ago, but let's start with Kansas, red Kansas, red Kansas. That's right, John. So [1:38] you noted the top line here. It's a no clear leader race within the margin of error. Hamilton [1:42] 49, Marshall 45. Take a look at the party breakdown. John, this jumped out at me. Adam Hamilton has [1:48] 60% support among independents. That a huge advantage over Marshall with that critical [1:54] voting block of independence. But also look here, he's winning 12% of Republicans. You don't see [2:00] Democrats in today's politics getting that much from the other party. But in Kansas, that's precisely [2:05] what a Democrat would need to do. And the other key factor here is Hamilton has a higher [2:11] favorability rating among likely voters than the Democratic Party itself. Very low favorability, [2:17] 34% for the Democratic Party among Kansas likely voters. But Hamilton's is at 41%. Again, [2:23] deep red state, you kind of have to outrun the party brand if you're going to have any success. [2:27] So what's going on in Texas, where in the CNN polls, one of the larger margins we've seen [2:32] for James Tallarico there? Yeah, 49, 43 is the top line. Underneath the hood here, [2:38] Latino voters are helping to drive Tallarico's lead. He's winning them in this poll among likely [2:42] voters. 63% to 29%. You remember just two years ago, Donald Trump won the Latino vote in Texas as [2:49] part of his reelection effort. And a similar story here about Tallarico outrunning his own party in [2:54] terms of favorability. 36% favorability of the Democratic Party among Texas likely voters. But [3:00] Tallarico's favorability, his as at 44%. So he is separating himself from the party brand. [3:06] Yeah. And in Michigan, it's so interesting because again, Abdul Al-Sayed needs to be doing [3:13] well with certain groups in order to maintain this seat for Democrats. How is he doing with those [3:17] groups? Yeah. So first thing that jumped out at us was he has really consolidated a bit more [3:23] the Democratic vote, which he does need to do. Remember when we polled around Labor Day, [3:28] this was at 90% support among Democrats. It's now at 95, a little more distance from that primary. [3:34] Look at the independent number though. He's beating Rogers among independents by 19 percentage points [3:40] there. So that is pretty critical. And then the favorabilities on the candidates. Abdul Al-Sayed [3:46] is roughly even 46% favorable, 43% unfavorable view of him among likely voters. Rogers is way upside [3:53] down, John. He's at 50% unfavorable. That's really interesting. So they've driven up the negatives [3:58] on Mike Rogers inside Michigan, or maybe that is a bit of the Trump factor there. Let's talk a [4:04] little bit about Maine, where voters are clearly paying attention to this race. What are you seeing [4:08] there? Yes, no doubt. So 49% for Jackson, 45% for Collins, no clear leader, margin of error race. [4:16] But this is all about Susan Collins. Troy Jackson, among his voters, likely Jackson voters, [4:21] 73% say they're casting their ballot against Collins. They are driven by her. And that's a key [4:29] component because that has been central to his campaign, that this is all about sort of a check [4:33] on Collins. And what he sees is a rubber stamp for Donald Trump. I think a runner pulling nine [4:38] out of 10 voters say they've already made up their minds in Maine right now, an extraordinarily high [4:43] number for Maine voters there. David, how is the Trump factor playing across the country? [4:48] So across all four states, Donald Trump is playing as a negative factor for Republicans. It's pretty [4:54] clear, John, if you add these up, majorities in all four states say Trump is a factor. But whether [4:59] it's a factor of opposition or support, overwhelmingly, he's a factor of opposing him [5:05] in Maine, it's 46%, Michigan 41, Texas 41, Kansas 40. So that is a problem. And to your point [5:11] about Maine being sort of locked in to their choice, the others not as much. Look here among the [5:18] persuadable universe. This could still move. This is not an insignificant chunk. 14% in Kansas, [5:23] 14% in Michigan, 13% in Texas who say they could still change their mind. I didn't even know you were [5:30] going to use that main number. I didn't mean to step on these numbers there, but that is [5:33] pretty remarkable. And there is a difference between Maine and Kansas. And maybe you will [5:37] see some of the national effort going into those states where there still are. And John, just to [5:40] say, these folks, these persuadable voters are Republican, Republican-leaning voters. So [5:46] in these deep red states, if they're going to change their mind and sort of put on their [5:49] partisan jersey, you could imagine that that could have an impact on really tightening these races. [5:54] Particularly in a place like Kansas or Texas. David Chowling, great to see you. Very interesting new data this [5:59] morning. Sarah? All right. Thank you so much. Let's continue the conversation. Joining us this [6:03] morning, Tia Mitchell, the Washington Bureau Chief for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. [6:07] Also, Chief Washington Correspondent for Puck, Leanne Caldwell. Thank you both for being here. [6:11] Leanne's in the studio. I'm going to start with you. Let's talk about the Michigan race where [6:16] El Sayed is pulling ahead in polling. Hours before our poll release, something interesting [6:22] happened with his Democratic primary challenger, Haley Stevens, who has been out campaigning. [6:27] Her fiancé, who is a Jewish Democratic voter, went public to say he is voting for the Republican, [6:35] Mike Rogers, in this race. I just want to let people see how Stevens responded when Caitlin [6:40] Collins asked her about it. Like a lot of households across America, we're a household divided. I still [6:48] very much want our Democratic nominee, his name is Abdul, to win this race. There's so much on the line. [6:56] But I will be honest, there are a lot of voters in Michigan. I was out knocking doors earlier today [7:04] in Macomb County, and they are still undecided. Leanne, does this speak to a larger issue in [7:13] Michigan, that this race is not just about the main things driving voters to the polls everywhere [7:19] else, which is the cost of living, but maybe more than any other state, that Michigan also is paying [7:25] close attention to foreign policy, particularly when it comes to Israel. [7:29] Yeah, absolutely. Out of all the polls you all released today, I was actually most surprised [7:33] with the Michigan results that Abdul had the most comfortable lead there. What Haley Stevens' [7:40] fiancé said is that he believes that Abdul is an anti-Semite. And so Abdul's impact with Jewish voters, [7:48] and if he's able to get Jewish voters to turn out and to vote for him, is still a big question. [7:55] There's a lot of Democrats, though, that I will say that was very worried after her fiancé came out [7:59] that Haley Stevens was going to come out and be critical of Abdul El-Sayed as well. So that her [8:06] interview was very heartening to people. But it's still this big unknown if Abdul is able to [8:11] coalesce this Democratic base. [8:12] Yeah, and we're starting to see some of that in the polling. But again, that is just a snapshot [8:18] in time. We still have a few days left to see what really is going to happen. Tia, [8:21] there is also a question about whether El-Sayed can rally the Black vote as well. What are you [8:26] looking for there? [8:30] Yeah, I mean, what I'm looking for there is how he is able not just to himself make inroads with [8:37] the community, but what kind of surrogates he has to connect with Black Michiganders. You know, [8:42] there are a lot of, you know, Obama, for example, will be helpful, continue to be helpful in that [8:49] way. Other Black Democrats who have credibility with Black voters, they're showing up to vouch for [8:57] Abdul El-Sayed. But again, that has to be coupled with him himself on the ground, being able to meet [9:05] and touch people so that they say, OK, I've heard from the guy and now I feel comfortable casting my [9:11] ballot. Just into CNN new polling across four key Senate races, showing Democrats well positioned [9:18] at least for election night. So this CNN poll out of Michigan is finding that Democrat Abdul El-Sayed [9:24] with a seven point lead over Republican Mike Rogers. This is among likely voters. A deeper dive [9:31] in the numbers showing 95 percent of likely Democratic voters have rallied behind El-Sayed after a bitter [9:37] primary, five points higher than the last poll. And then let's look at independence, also breaking [9:43] towards the Democrat. Joining me now in the group chat, Alex Thompson, CNN political analyst and [9:47] national political correspondent at Axios, Mike Dubke, former Trump White House communications [9:52] director, and Megan Hayes, former director of message planning at the Biden White House. Thank you [9:57] guys so much for being here for the group chat. So what's in my chat to start on this race today? Well, the [10:04] fiance of the person that El-Sayed lost to, how am I saying this? We're saying Haley Stevens' fiance says he is [10:15] voting for Mike Rogers for Senate. And her reply is this. She was asked about it. Like a lot of households across [10:25] America. We're a household divided. I still very much want our Democratic nominee. His name is Abdul to win [10:35] this race. There's so much on the line. But I will be honest, there are a lot of voters in Michigan. I was [10:43] out knocking doors earlier today in Macomb County and they are still undecided. Who is undecided? Who do you [10:52] think she's talking about other than her fiance? Oh, he's decided. I don't think he's decided. [10:58] Let's be clear about that. Definitely decided. I think she is trying to implore the campaign to [11:04] do more outreach to the Jewish community and into the black community in Michigan. I think that some [11:09] of these ads that have come out recently, I think she's, this is sort of a red flag to them of saying [11:13] like, I am with you, but there are people who are not. Please do this. Please reach out to them. It's sort of a [11:18] last ditch effort, I think to unite, unify everyone behind outside. And I think that that's what she's [11:24] trying to do here. I think that if people aren't listening, sometimes the call comes from inside [11:28] the house. If people aren't listening, I think this is the best way to do it. It's interesting. When we [11:32] polled Michigan's voters about the issues that are important to them, you have the economy being first, [11:39] right? And then democracy, second, immigration, third. U.S. policy towards Israel was just 4%. But in a race [11:46] that's close, is that 4% you got to worry about? Yeah, well, absolutely. I mean, the margin of [11:52] Michigan, which Mike Rogers was the nominee just two years ago, was, I believe, less than 30,000 votes. [11:58] So, and a lot of Democrats feel that Abdul El-Sayed did not do enough outreach post-primary win [12:06] to really engage. And what sort of- Engage in the communities that he did not win over in the primary [12:11] specifically. Exactly. Yes, exactly. And, you know, what sort of, you know, kicked all this dust [12:16] up is that, you know, that a bunch of progressives did, released a web ad last week that basically [12:23] blamed Israel for high grocery prices. And some people interpreted that as you're blaming Jews [12:29] for high grocery prices. And what, and then you saw Haley Stevens on CNN on Sunday. She refused to [12:36] explicitly endorse El-Sayed. Then you have the fiance come out. Now, now she goes on CNN last night and is [12:41] like, you know, I want to vote for the nominee Abdul. But you could still sort of see that there was, [12:46] I mean, she's had a lengthy butt after that. And so I will also say in that same CNN poll that was [12:52] released today, you know, Abdul El-Sayed is, went from 90% of Democrats voting for him to 95% of [12:59] Democrats voting for him. So there has been- There's some kind of shift somewhere. There is. [13:03] So we've been talking- Okay, can we talk about polls for one second though? Because that's like, [13:06] I'm sure that poll had like a 4.4% margin of error. So your five point shift could be just [13:12] margin of error here. But what I do want to come back to is when you're pointing out the issues that [13:17] are important to the American population or the citizens of Michigan, and you go economy, democracy, [13:23] immigration, and then you go way down to Israel. It is a mix when a voter goes into the ballot booth. [13:29] I think too often we talk about these polls and we go, well, economy's at the top of the list. [13:33] Yeah, they're concerned about the economy, but they're also concerned about all the other factors [13:38] that flow into that candidacy. And we had Abdul, I don't know if CNN did, but there were some other [13:43] polls in the primary where he was up by double digits and then he won by 1%. So we also need to [13:50] take a step back in this poll and every other poll. And I'm not saying that CNN is wrong. [13:54] No, and then we're left with sort of the man on the street. I want to play you a clip that went viral. [13:59] This year's been so difficult in terms of polling because people aren't picking up the phone. [14:04] People aren't picking up the phone, which is a problem they've dealt with in the past. [14:08] But I want to play for you a sample voter. This is in a Michigan hair salon talking to the BBC. [14:13] You worry that he's a bit too left-wing to win in Michigan? At this point, [14:18] what do we have to worry about? Anything but what we have. We're on our way to hell. [14:24] So at this point, socialists, socialize, social, don't matter to me. Lower my cost of living. [14:34] Pretty straightforward. [14:37] Yeah, no, and I think- Lower my cost. She said it's low. [14:40] I think if Megan and I agree on anything, it is that this is an anti-incumbency year. And that [14:47] particular stylist probably nailed it better than most. It's like, what does it matter to me? [14:54] All of them kind of suck. So let's find somebody new. That is much more, I think, [15:00] captures the zeitgeist that we're in right now than any of these polls of who's up, who's down. [15:04] But just notable because, again, if you're going out and saying this is a socialist, communist, [15:10] all the is you can, and the voter is like, don't care, don't know. [15:14] But that's why you see Democrats are doing well in Mississippi and in Kansas and South Carolina. [15:19] It's because it's anti-incumbency. People do not want a rubber stamp for Donald Trump's [15:23] terrible economic policies. And they're sort of like, Democrats didn't stop him. [15:26] Republicans aren't stopping him. Maybe the next person will. [15:29] Well, they also don't think, they're also not endorsing Democrat policies, [15:32] which I don't know what those are. [15:34] I don't know what those are. [15:34] I don't know what those are. [15:35] I don't know what those are. [15:36] I don't know what those are. [15:37] I don't know what those are. 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