Netanyahu is a 'degenerate gambler' and Lebanon is his last bet: Israeli analyst

[0:00] Well, Israel's defense minister, Israel Katz, says that the military had carried out a surprise [0:04] attack on Wednesday, targeting hundreds of Hezbollah members right across Lebanon. [0:12] The IDF carried out a surprise strike on hundreds of Hezbollah terrorists [0:15] at command centers across Lebanon. This is the largest concentrated blow Hezbollah has suffered [0:22] since Operation Beepers. Okay, let's bring in Ori Goldberg, who's an Israeli political commentator, [0:27] joins us now from Tel Aviv. Hi there, Ori. So, we've seen this big uptick in violence in Lebanon, [0:34] not least in Beirut, where we've been seeing, perhaps we can see them, pictures of [0:37] ongoing rescue operations being carried out in Beirut. And there are many, Ori, who say that [0:47] this was all an effort to try and sabotage the deal in Iran. Do you think that theory has legs at all? [0:53] To some extent, yeah. I think Israel is desperately trying to show that it controls at least some of [1:02] the game effectively. But it's not just about sabotaging the deal with Iran. It's about [1:06] very clear demands as regards domestic politics in Israel. Israel, especially Prime Minister Netanyahu, [1:15] has to demonstrate to the residents of Israel's north that he's doing his utmost to ensure their [1:21] security. Now, in Israel, everybody knows that security means no Arabs in the vicinity. [1:28] So, from the point of view of Benjamin Netanyahu and his position as Prime Minister, [1:33] is it weakened by a ceasefire being called between Iran and the United States? [1:41] Of course he is. He bet everything he had on Trump staying the course, going all the way, [1:48] attacking Iran, either dismantling the Islamic Republic or causing enough destruction or going [1:55] directly after the nuclear material. None of that actually happened. Israel was given leeway and the [2:04] ability to bomb Iran incessantly. The Americans bombed from the sea and to some extent from the air. [2:11] Israel met with very little resistance because Iran doesn't effectively have an air force. [2:16] And the Iranian navy, which was apparently destroyed, is now cordoning the Straits of Hormuz [2:22] and has brought the president of the United States to agree to a joint taxing operation, [2:29] the profits of which will pay for Iran's reconstruction. So, I dare say, I think, [2:34] you know, Netanyahu lost. [2:37] Do you think there is a danger that the ceasefire could be put in jeopardy by these [2:42] ongoing attacks that have taken place within Lebanon by Israel? [2:45] Well, I think it now depends on the international community. I know that's a pejorative phrase [2:55] almost, but I think much depends on the international community because what Israel is doing in Lebanon [2:59] is patently illegal. And it also really, not that it matters, but it has absolutely no [3:05] military rationale because if Israel can do this now, why didn't it do it beforehand? [3:11] And why does it have to strike a hundred targets in a minute? This is a pyrotechnics show meant to [3:18] demonstrate Israel's effectiveness while ultimately demonstrating its despair. [3:23] And the only entity that can stop it is the international community that will defend Lebanon's [3:28] sovereign rights, which have been violated for decades, but are now almost non-existent. [3:34] If the world chooses to intervene, and there's reason to assume that might happen because I think [3:40] Trump has written Netanyahu off as a liability, and that means in Lebanon, not just in Iran and in [3:47] Palestine. But I don't know. It could go the other way. If the world intervenes, Israel will stop. [3:53] This has already been proven. As far as Israelis go, the war with Iran is over, [3:58] and we're going back to normal tomorrow. Netanyahu has said that operations in Lebanon will continue, [4:05] but he quite often ups the ante directly before a ceasefire. How do you read it? [4:13] It's all he has left. He's a degenerate gambler who has absolutely nothing in terms of chips and has to [4:20] go double or nothing constantly. As you say, not just upping the ante, but really risking everything [4:26] he has. He bet it all on Trump. He lost. He thought he could keep Trump on a short leash. [4:33] He messed that up as well. So now what he has is Lebanon, which has been Israel's favorite [4:39] stomping ground in terms of sovereignty violation and aggression generally. And really now it's up [4:46] to the international community about whether it intervenes. Although I think you're right. I don't [4:51] think Netanyahu is going to go all the way. I don't think he's going to destroy southern Lebanon. I think [4:56] he really is desperate. I think he's waiting for the other shoe to drop. [5:00] What does international community intervention even look like, given that Benjamin Netanyahu seems [5:06] to have no regard at all for the rules of war or of engagement indeed? [5:13] Good question. I doubt it has anything to do with the rules of war, but it has plenty to do with [5:18] sanctions. It has plenty to do with the European Union negatively reviewing Israel's articles of [5:23] association. It has everything to do with a continuous cold shoulder from Washington, D.C. [5:30] If this happens, I don't think Israel can keep doing this alone. And I think this was very directly [5:37] done for political reasons, not so much in Lebanese context, but in an Israeli context. So Israelis [5:45] won't stop this. This is now seen even by Israelis as a partisan political battle. As long as that's the [5:52] case, Israelis won't stop this. Sanctions are required. Trial proceedings are at the very least [5:58] inquiries, discussions in international legal tribunals, and the willingness that I think [6:04] has proven itself of global leaders to basically stand up to Israel. I will be surprised if we don't [6:14] see President Macron, for example, step in. [6:16] Ory, thanks for that. Ory Goldberg there on the complexities of the ongoing situation across [6:23] Lebanon, Israel, indeed Iran. Thank you very much. [6:27] Thank you for having me.