Midterms latest: Forecaster moves 12 more House races toward Dems

[0:00] What we're looking at right now is breaking news. A map that just changed according to the Cook [0:06] political report. They now say that there are 222 districts in the U.S. that are leaning or likely [0:14] are solid Democratic. That is a shift toward the Democrats. Before this morning it was 220. That [0:20] might not seem like a lot but you will remember that it takes 218 seats to control the U.S. House [0:26] of Representatives. Democrats are at 214 right now. So that shift more toward the Democrats and then [0:33] perhaps even more importantly they moved several other races in the Democratic direction. What am I [0:38] talking about there? Well in a state like Colorado for instance Colorado's Colorado's fifth congressional [0:45] district was leaning Republican. It's a Republican incumbent. Now they say it's a toss-up with Jessica [0:51] Killen. The Democrat there with a solid chance. There are a few other districts in the country that [0:55] are worth noting. I was just talking to a candidate in Pennsylvania in Pennsylvania's first congressional [1:00] district. This race now listed as a toss-up. The Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick has been [1:06] able to hold off Democrats in a district that actually leans voted for Kamala Harris. You're [1:10] going to hear from David Urban in just a second. Pennsylvania guru who's going to tell you that [1:15] maybe Brian Fitzpatrick will still win but Cook Political Report now says this race is a toss-up but [1:21] you get a sense of how the map has changed just over the last few days drifting toward the Democrats in [1:29] these very very late moments. Let's talk about your House ratings. Jessica you are here to walk us through. [1:36] We're going to start with the Senate map. I mean we have a lot of uncertainty in the Senate map still. I [1:42] would still rather be Democrats than Republicans right now in our seven toss-ups. I actually think they're [1:47] leading in at least five to six of them Democrats are but it's still within the margin of error and [1:53] we've seen some some of these states are very hard to pull. Alaska, Maine, the polls have not been [1:58] reliable there in the past. We saw Michigan polling the off in the primary election but the two races [2:03] that I'm moving just shows how the map has expanded. And those two races, forgive me, but [2:07] Nebraska moves from likely Republican to lean Republican. Okay and then Florida was not on the map [2:12] before and now it is. Right. I mean this is a 13-point Trump state. I still think that Angie Nixon is going to [2:16] struggle more than a regular Democrat would in Florida even in a wave type of year because she [2:21] has aligned herself with the Democratic Socialists of America. But it is I have we have seen closer [2:27] polling there. I think that she's being helped by the strong campaign that David Jolly the Democratic [2:31] nominee for governor is running as well. Okay I just want to do this for everybody just a reminder [2:38] and clear this. Okay so this is where the battleground map is right now. Let's look at where it was in [2:44] February of last year. My initial ratings yes. From your initial ratings the entire [2:50] Midwest to western part of the country was not a battleground. And remember right now what we had [2:56] before. Alaska was not on. Texas was not on. Iowa was not on. Never mind Kansas and so many others here [3:06] that are now in February of 2025 were battlegrounds and now they've changed dramatically. I mean this is a [3:13] remarkable shift from last year to now. Democrats deserve credit for recruiting candidates convincing [3:19] a candidate like Mary Peltola to run in Alaska. I think that they took advantage of Republican [3:23] divisions in Texas with getting James Tallarico as a strong candidate there. But Kansas I think is the [3:29] big surprise of the cycle and I think Roger Marshall probably wins the award for running maybe the worst [3:34] campaign and he could have put this race away earlier. Again it's a 16-point Trump state. I know that [3:39] the NRSC told their incumbents you need to be ready this is a tough cycle and he was one who did not [3:43] apparently heed that. He didn't even have campaign staff or consultants up until just a few weeks ago. [3:49] I just want to say something for the record as we talk about this remarkable shift. The yellow states [3:55] are toss-ups. Toss-up means it can go either way and it is for the most part on Republican turf which means [4:04] they could come home. And this is the question that I have and I think that a lot of people do as [4:08] they're looking for the polling what is we're seeing good Democratic turnout in some of these [4:11] places where we have partisan data but if Republican voters come home they vote on election day that [4:16] could certainly because the DNA of these states is still very Republican and I think that's why if [4:21] you see them fall short in a 16-point Trump state in an 18-point Trump state like South Carolina that [4:26] we have rated lean Republican I think the answer will be it was just too Republican we're too partisan [4:31] right now. And Leanne I know you're in touch with Republican sources all day every day where are they [4:36] most worried as you look at this map? Everywhere they are really worried everywhere you know just [4:42] yesterday in South Carolina the the Democratic super PAC Senate majority PAC went in with $750,000 [4:49] in digital ads which doesn't seem like a lot but it is the first time national Democrats have spent [4:54] money in the state and you know perhaps decades it's the first time this cycle as well and the reason [5:00] I'm told is because Democrats got some polling back that showed you know Annie Andrews actually with a [5:06] very slight lead in private polling event over Darlene Graham and so you know Republicans are extremely [5:15] nervous they're if they were able to keep the Senate that is going to be considered a very very good night [5:24] for them. Okay let's look about talk about and look at the house ratings that have changed because as [5:30] we said 12 of them have moved in the Democrats direction in in sort of some way shape or form [5:38] I want to zero in on some of the new competitive races and I specifically want to highlight North [5:45] Carolina 9. Why am I doing this? Not just because it was a Trump almost 16 district but because that is [5:52] the district of the man Hudson Congressman Hudson who is in charge of getting Republicans elected to [5:59] to Congress and keeping the house and he even put some money into his own race. Look that just goes to [6:05] show that if you are a Republican incumbent you do not feel safe wherever you are regardless of how much [6:11] you won by last time. I have talked to Republican members of Congress who have never been as worried [6:19] as this I mean it it reminds me of Democrats in 2010 in 2014 there's just this sense out there that [6:26] everyone now is sort of worried but look I mean the reality is the the likely GOP and only GOP those are [6:33] still likely to be in the Republican hands but it makes everyone nervous there's no doubt about it but [6:38] just there's one thing that is is true as we end this campaign cycle the president's approval rating remains [6:45] very low and the economy remains very high as the top issue those are the two things that have not [6:51] changed throughout this entire year and that is driving all of this. I want to read a little bit of [6:56] your newsletter this morning Jasmine the bar for a good night has been set very high this is about [7:01] Democrats obviously too high for some to steal some phrasing I had heard earlier today I think the party is [7:08] nauseously optimistic that is uh Roderica Appleweight of the majority Democrats yeah we were asking this [7:15] question to Democrats did you set the bar too high when you go out on the trail I was at Milwaukee with [7:21] Kamala Harris as she was campaigning for David Crawley early this weekend she said when Democrats take the [7:26] Senate that is a very high bar even given the changes in the expansion of the map so we're asking [7:32] Democrats across the board did you guys set the bar too high so that if you do not net the Senate or if [7:38] you don't flip some of these races that we're talking about let's say Texas Kansas etc will people feel [7:45] disappointed even though the house has a good night which they're expected to have and the question for [7:51] people was why not expand what we think that we can expand why not give people hope and that we can do [7:59] more for what we're talking about with us now to discuss is CNN political commentator Alyssa Ferry [8:04] Griffin former Trump White House director of strategic communications all right Alyssa we're four days out [8:09] from election day what is your reaction to that report the Democrats could fare better than previously [8:14] expected in these 12 house races it tracks with what I'm hearing from a number of operatives and just [8:21] some of the early voter turnout that we're starting to see I mean we have the most data that we have had to [8:26] date we've had you know millions of votes cast in some of these critical battleground states [8:30] so I strongly suspect that the house is going to flip for Democrats but now we're starting to see [8:35] that it could be a double digit win for Democrats in the House the Senate is just such an open game [8:40] I mean I've talked to Republicans who think that yes Democrats have more optionality to get there [8:46] the fact that Kansas is potentially in play Iowa Texas but they're really watching Michigan closely [8:51] which Mike Rogers has been neck and neck there with El Syed and that would be a net loss for Democrats [8:57] if Mike Rogers were to win so the bottom line is nobody knows when it comes to the Senate there's [9:03] a lot of surprises that could happen but the two things I'm watching are the demographics of early [9:08] voter turnout you've seen a heavy Latino turnout especially in Texas and then you've seen a lot [9:12] of young voters turning out those are both positive signs in this moment for Democrats but we really [9:18] won't know anything till Tuesday what do you make of that in terms of young voters that Democrats are [9:23] pulling in a lot more young voters in these early votes compared to Republicans as a Republican it's [9:30] frustrating because Donald Trump made pretty incredible inroads with young voters in 2024 [9:36] you know he reached out to some of those low propensity voters he went on podcasts and sort of [9:40] the manosphere and got a lot of particularly young men to turn out for Republicans but in the two years [9:46] since I think the policies of this administration have really alienated some of those voters and pushed [9:51] them back into Democrats arms so the cost of living is the biggest issue for young voters and frankly [9:56] all voters but also no new wars really resonated if you're you know my generation and you grew up in [10:02] the global war on terror a lot of voters were just motivated for no new wars in the Middle East and now [10:08] we're in Iran something the president ran against doing so those issues and I think heavy-handed tactics [10:14] with immigration have really created quite a bit of a break with younger voters and the Trump administration [10:21] joining me now is the woman leading the charge for democratic efforts to get more Democrats elected [10:25] to the house the chair of the DCCC Democratic Congresswoman Susan DelBene of Washington thanks for [10:30] being here absolutely four days for four days and another change from Cook Political you've got 12 race [10:38] changes a notch towards Democrats in all 12 of these what does that say to you how bullish are you this [10:46] morning well actually since Labor Day we've seen 291 race rating changes towards Democrats all across the [10:55] country because people on the ground are tired they're hurting they're tired of the broken promises [11:01] costs skyrocketing people losing health care Republicans promise no forever worse we have a [11:08] forever war going on right now with no strategy no plan people don't want representatives who are [11:14] rubber stamps for an administration they want folks who are going to stand up for them and we have great [11:19] candidates running excuse me literally all across the country and opportunities in we're on offense 66 [11:26] districts across the country they all keep moving our direction and as you said we need to net three to [11:33] win but we will absolutely take back the majority and have a strong governing majority absolutely take [11:38] back the majority is how bullish is is where you are this morning where is the floor and how pie in [11:44] the sky are you willing to go you've got Cook says you can pick up the range that they've got is between 12 [11:50] and 25 seats crystal ball Larry Sabato's team has it between 15 and 33 seats where's your what's the [11:58] floor you're working with right now and in the minimum number of seats you guys are picking up we're going to [12:03] take back the majority i never give a number my job is to make sure we fight for every seat across the [12:08] country but you do you do count numbers i do count numbers and yet i know that we have incredible [12:14] opportunities as i said we have 66 races where we're on offense across the country from maine to [12:20] southern california from alaska to florida and do you is your is your mind you're going to pick up double digits [12:26] i think we have a strong opportunity to take back the majority and have a strong governing majority [12:32] so we're going to fight for every seat but i take nothing for granted we're going to work hard over [12:35] these next four days to make sure we win every seat we can across the country of the 12 that i'm looking [12:40] at here um from cook political that have that have shifted a notch toward democrats now which one that [12:47] you've been tracking from let's say labor day to now which one is that which one is the juiciest [12:54] which one do you are you focused on most as the most likely pickup for you guys you know i think [12:59] there are opportunities across the board here i think one of the things you kind of are pointed [13:04] out was that some of these races are in districts that republicans gerrymandered to try to make [13:11] opportunities for them improve across the country you talked about north carolina and richard hudson seat [13:18] they've been redoing the maps in north carolina every cycle seems like to try to create more and [13:24] more opportunities and it's backfiring not only do we have opportunities in his district but north [13:29] carolina 11 jamie agar running an incredible campaign we're going to pick up seats in north carolina and [13:36] florida texas other places that they gerrymandered they're backfiring because people didn't get to [13:43] have a say they want we have incredible candidates that's probably our secret sauce is we have great [13:48] candidates running across the country and people are tired of the broken promises so we have [13:54] opportunities even in places that were gerrymandered when we're talking about control of the u.s house [13:58] of representatives in 2024 there were three races in the entire country in districts where republicans [14:05] won but also were won by kamala harris one of those was pennsylvania's first congressional district where [14:11] brian fitzpatrick the republican incumbent he won pretty easily by almost 13 points and this was a [14:17] district that kamala harris actually won so democrats have been painting this as a target even though [14:24] even though brian fitzpatrick did very very well there there's been a change just this morning in [14:30] this district before this morning this district cook political report rated as lean republican that [14:35] has changed in the last half hour literally now cook says this race is a toss-up between the incumbent [14:42] congressman brian fitzpatrick and the democrat bob harvey joining us right now [14:47] is the democratic candidate in pennsylvania's first congressional district bob harvey good to see [14:52] you this morning one of the ways that brian fitzpatrick has positioned himself in this district [14:57] and been able to get reelected in a district that leans a little bit blue is by voting against the [15:03] republican party and the president united states the philadelphia inquirer said he votes more against [15:09] the president the republicans than any other republican member of congress so why do you tell voters in [15:14] the pennsylvania first congressional district there needs to be a change well for a lot of reasons [15:21] at first it's good to be with you john thank you for having me on um you know brian fitzpatrick has [15:26] never voted against the president's agenda when it actually mattered he's done nothing to derail this [15:30] agenda in fact the inquirer pointed that out in their uh endorsement of me but this is a district [15:37] where like across the country people are hurting um people are struggling with higher bills when it comes [15:42] to groceries heating oil uh you know gasoline um you know affordability when it comes to health care [15:48] and it all goes back to the votes that brian fitzpatrick has cast um i listened to some [15:54] interviews that you've done and read some some exchanges you've had with pennsylvania organizations [15:59] one of the things you said is when you decided to get into this race you had already determined [16:02] that the democratic party had lost its way can you give me some specific examples of where you think [16:09] your party has lost its way well look i i'm the first in my family to go to college you know none [16:17] of my grandparents graduated high school and my two grandfathers didn't go to high school um and yet [16:22] the democratic party is what we've always been part of in my family because we believed it fought for [16:26] working families that fought for you know making sure people could earn a wage that could help them [16:32] buy those homes they wanted to buy cars going vacations when they needed to provide for their kids [16:37] and i think over the last couple decades we've drifted away from from fighting for those people [16:41] they just don't trust the democrat party to fight for those affordability issues and economic issues [16:46] anymore so i'm proud of the this campaign's focus on those issues and i think people are are now [16:51] focused and i think the party's more focused than it has been in the past now i do not know if you're [16:55] an avid user of truth social i i expect not but just a few minutes ago this morning president trump wrote [17:02] on his social media platform he wrote inflation is way down under trump which of course is that not [17:09] actually true inflation is up since the president took office you can see where it was at his [17:14] inauguration you can see where it is now but what do you what's your reaction to the president telling his [17:20] supporters telling the country inflation is down well the the you know i don't have to have a reaction [17:27] any more than the people in this district across the country know the truth uh you know i'm hearing [17:32] especially over the past couple weeks people have gotten that first shipment of heating oil there's [17:36] a lot of people in this district especially seniors and older homes who still use oil heat and those [17:41] bills are 70 percent sometimes double what they were last year and this is just their first shipment of [17:47] heating oil that they're going to have this winter um so that's the pain that people are facing so they [17:51] know what the real reality is when it comes to inflation so you are a teacher a former teacher how many [17:57] years did you cheat civics and social studies uh for 26 years in public schools um god bless you that's [18:05] a long time so you no doubt talked to students about congress and what it was like to run for congress [18:11] how is actually running for congress different than you might have talked about it with your students [18:18] over the last 26 years well you know it's funny i i this was not something that was on my agenda things [18:25] to do was to run for congress and so i never really talked a whole lot about it although i was just in [18:29] a school the other day talking to a young group of democratic high school students and their club [18:35] you know certainly that the attention that this race has gotten you just mentioned the [18:39] political report changing the rating uh to toss up um this is getting national attention in this race [18:46] because it is such a swing county and swing district um and so that attention really is something [18:51] that is taking a look at used to bob harvey we appreciate you being with us i know you've got a busy [18:57] few days ahead a lot of people watching your district for signs which way the entire congress will go on [19:03] on tuesday night thank you