Mideast experts discuss how the U.S. blockade could pressure the Iranian regime

[0:00] AMNA NAWAZ- For perspective now on the situation with Iran, we get two views. [0:03] Alan Eyre is now at the Middle East Institute after serving in the U.S. government for four [0:07] decades. He was part of the Obama administration's negotiating team for the Iran nuclear deal, [0:13] which President Trump pulled out of in 2018. And Niyad Maliki was born and raised in Iran. [0:18] And until last year, he was associate director for sanctioned targeting, [0:22] with a focus on Iran in the U.S. Treasury Department. He's now a senior fellow at the [0:26] Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Welcome to you both. Thanks for being here. [0:30] Thanks for having us. Niyad, I'll begin with you. [0:32] Will this U.S. naval blockade, will it force the Iranians to change course? [0:37] I think so. I think it's really, you know, with the blockade, the regime now has two options. [0:44] Come to its term, you know, come back to the negotiations table and accept some kind of a, [0:50] if not a full deal, but some agreement to continue to negotiate by some time. [0:55] Or just accept the fact that the economy is going to collapse. I think domestically, [1:00] the Iranian regime knows that they're more vulnerable than they are in the battlefield. [1:05] I mean, as a matter of fact, they shot down the Internet for over 40 days. [1:08] That's about $50 million a day in economic damages that they're taking on, [1:13] only because they worry about uprising in country. So they're taking that hit just to avoid any kind [1:19] of domestic pressure. They're going to face that domestic pressure soon if the blockade is effective. [1:23] Alan, what do you make of that? Do you think the U.S. blockade will have that impact on the regime? [1:28] Unfortunately, I'm a little less optimistic than Miad is. I think even if the blockade is perfectly [1:37] done and effective, it will take too long to have the requisite effect on Iran. Because there's two [1:43] dynamics here. One is the global economy suffering because the strait is closed. And the other is, [1:48] whatever pain we can inflict on Iran by a fully effective blockade. But they have land borders. [1:55] There's other ways of getting things in and out of Iran. So it might be effective over time, [1:59] but too long a time frame for it to matter. Secondly, it's escalatory. Not just giving Iran [2:05] more targets to shoot at, but I find it hard to believe the United States is going to try to board, [2:09] for example, a Chinese vessel or a Pakistani cargo and interdict that and stop that trade. So I think it's [2:17] partially performative. It helps put some additional pressure on Iran, but it won't get Iran to accept [2:24] current U.S. terms. What about that, Miad? I mean, the point is here too. Does it incentivize them to [2:28] come back to the table and negotiate or to see through the threats that they made, which is saying [2:32] no port in the region will be safe if the blockade goes? You know, I disagree with Alan on the point [2:37] that there are alternative ways for Iran to continue its trade. You can't truck in $160 million a day in [2:44] import. There's no alternative to Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz for Iran's trade. I mean, [2:49] you're looking at 90% of its economy really relying on the trade that goes through a Strait of Hormuz. [2:55] They can't continue to take, they can't sustain running an economy that can't import anything, [3:00] can't export anything. And then eventually they're going to have to drop their oil extraction. [3:05] And when you drop your oil extraction because you're running out of oil storage, [3:08] then you're going to have to shut down your wells. And then you're going to have strikes. [3:12] You're going to have labor strikes. You won't be able to pay salaries. They have issues with taxation. [3:17] They can't collect taxes right now because they shut down the internet, because they can't produce [3:21] metals and they can't produce petrochemicals. So the state of economy is so vulnerable domestically [3:27] that I don't think anything can replace the export and trade that you rely on through the [3:31] Persian Gulf. Well, again, I think Miad's right, but I think the time frame is wrong. [3:36] But in the long run, you're right. A fully effective blockade brings Iran to its knees. [3:42] But like Cain said, in the long run, we're all dead. And by the time it's effective, [3:48] the world economy has gone over a cliff because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. [3:52] We saw during COVID that Iran can get by, it can eek by with drastically decreased economic activity, [4:00] drastically decreased exports of oil. So yes, he's quite right that it's an effective tool, [4:07] but not in the time frame we need to put pressure on Iran. [4:11] What do you see? And let me stick with you for a moment. What do you see [4:14] as enough pressure, sufficient pressure to bring Iran back to the negotiating table [4:19] and also that might get it to accept some of the U.S. demand so far? Do you see anything? [4:24] I don't think that's in our bag of tricks. I think, you know, pressure works best in [4:29] complement with negotiations. We have enough pressure to bring Iran to the table. Iran [4:35] wants to come to the table. But once they're at the table, for Iran, this is an existential battle. [4:42] And so there are certain red lines, just like the U.S. has red lines. If what's most important for the [4:46] U.S. is the nuclear issue, there's a deal to be had. Unfortunately for President Trump, [4:54] it's a lot like the JCPOA. And that's one of the reasons why he just wanted to do it. [4:58] But what's more important than any possible nuclear deal is, again, largely for time reasons, [5:03] the strait has to be opened as fully as possible, as quickly as possible. [5:07] Do you see Iran accepting any of those demands or does the U.S. need to rethink them when we're [5:12] talking about giving up the right to enrichment, opening up the Strait of Hormuz? [5:15] You know, I think if Iran accepts those 10 demands that President Trump put before them, [5:22] then on that day, I would say that there was a regime change. I think the 10 demands that we [5:26] put before them, if they accept all 10, then I would say the regime changed, because they really [5:31] changed what the principles of these regimes, you know, not supporting these terrorist proxies, [5:36] the enrichment of uranium that they have been, really, they have invested close to three, [5:41] hundreds of billions of dollars in the nuclear enrichment program. If the Iranians accept all 10 [5:46] points, then it would be a really different regime that we're dealing with. That's why I don't [5:50] think they're going to accept the 10. I think with this regime, you can't get a deal that would [5:56] serve our national security interest. And I think with blockade, we have an opportunity to either [6:02] really see a regime that would change its behavior, which I would say regime change, [6:07] or really a collapse in Iran's economy, which is going to lead to an opposition movement. [6:12] Alan, do you see, where do you see the U.S. line that might exist for the resumption of military [6:18] operations here? I think it's, I mean, President Trump has already said that he might do limited [6:23] strikes. I think for domestic political reasons, he's loath to do that, because it will spook the [6:29] markets and lead to further economic price rises. But he's clearly exasperated. He's only got one gear, [6:37] and that's increased pressure. And that's not working. So I don't know what the next step is. I mean, [6:43] unfortunately, this administration, U.S. administration, is both unwilling and unable [6:48] to do serious, sustained negotiations. So a diplomatic solution is even harder for that reason. [6:55] So, yeah, it's hard for me to find a way out of this mess. [6:59] Yeah, we should point out, as we speak here, Vice President Vance has been on Fox, [7:02] and he's repeatedly saying that the ball is in the Iranians' court. What do you see the Iranians doing [7:06] in this moment? You know, I think we just, I think at this point, they're just trying to think how they [7:12] can cause some, you know, increased costs on the blockade, you know, whether it's going to be some [7:17] asymmetric operations against, you know, tankers that are in the Persian Gulf, going after some, [7:23] you know, some of the oil refinery or oil facilities in the Gulf. They're probably in the planning phase, [7:28] because they understand this blockade is going to lead to economic collapse internally. It'll be really [7:34] the end of the way that our economy is set up right now. And back to Alan's point, you know, [7:39] I think the diplomatic approach with this regime is just not going to work at this point. I think [7:46] there's nothing but pressure that you can really focus on to bring this regime to either accept [7:51] some of the terms you're putting before them, or really just let the Iranians take the government [7:56] back. You know, the regime that killed 40,000, I think the numbers are much higher, 40,000 innocent [8:03] Iranians in 48 hours. It's not a type of regime that you can make a peaceful deal with. They [8:08] shut down the internet for 47 days, who would do that? I mean, you cut the entire population out of [8:14] the international communication systems. I don't think anything other than pressure would work with [8:18] this regime at this point. Alan, I'll give you the last word here. Miad says, [8:21] no chance of any diplomatic deal to get out of this. You say? [8:25] I think that's very unlikely, too. Again, it's peculiarly American misconception [8:30] to think that every problem has a solution. We shouldn't have entered this war. There [8:34] was no need to. It was unnecessary. And at this point, I think we should be looking not [8:39] for the ideal solution, but just the least bad solution. [8:43] Alan Eyre, Miad Maliki, very good to see you both. Thank you so much. [8:46] Thank you for having us.