Mandalorian FLOP PAIN! Disney Needs Toy Story to Make INSANE Money to BREAK EVEN!

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Walt Disney Company just might be at the edge of a huge box office win with Toy Story 5, but what if we told you it's an incredible amount of money it needs to make to break even? Not for the production costs and advertising of Toy Story, but rather for the hole the House of Mouse is in after The Mandalorian and Grogu and Hoppers. Millions and millions, nay folks, it's over a billion dollars Disney needs from Toy Story 5, not to get to profitability, but rather just to survive and get out of the red. Today we'll tell you just how much they need. Click that like button, smash that subscribe, and let's dive into the math the legacy drive-bys never wanted you to see. Hello Jonas and welcome back to another edition of How Bad Is It For Disney? Let's take a look at it right now. Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is under 300 million dollars at the box office worldwide at the time of this recording, but as you can see, it's probably going to end not far from where we are. So, 3:30-ish I think is where this thing's going to limp to. And the break even, well, let's take a look at this folks. We love now that the production budgets are here. 165 is the state of production budget on this one. We don't believe that is the actual spend, but whatever. We do believe that they spent at least a hundred million dollars on marketing, but probably a lot more. In fact, I have heard as high as 200 million on the marketing. I know people will disagree with us, but whatever. 500 to 600 million dollars is the break even that was listed by the Hollywood Reporter from Disney. So go argue with them. 500 to 600. And that means, Jonas, this thing's going to be somewhere between 150 million to 250 million dollars negativo, not making it to the break even. Is that fair, sir? That's fair. Yeah, absolutely. Moving right along. We got Hoppers. Hoppers is finished up now at the box office. It made $388 million. And if we go down here, the production budget for Hoppers magically is only $15 million less than the Mandalorian and Grogu, which is why we don't believe any of this stuff. But whatever, let's go with it. $150 million is the production budget. Surely they paid over, but whatever. We can guarantee you they spent $100 million on marketing. I just, they never spend less. In fact, I think the marketing numbers are often tremendously under reported by the media, but 250 would be the total spend on this. That means they would need $500 million to break even because after taxes and theaters get their cuts, Disney gets back half the cash. So if $250 million is the total spend, $500 million is what they have to make to break even, not to get a profit, not to get a return on investment, 500 million. And that means, Jonas, that this film is $112 million in the hole. Are you with me, Jonas? Jonas. Yeah. All right. What do we got on those two numbers when we add them up, buddy? I want to know how far they're in the hole off just those two films. $270 million. $270 million. Now that's giving them the most fair accounting number from the [00:03:02] Speaker 2: Mandalorian, right? Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. Because a Mandalorian probably costs more than [00:03:08] Speaker 1: what they're reporting. And if it's the $600 million. Yes. And if it's the $600 million that THR cited for the break even, how much are they in the hole? $370 million. All right. So they're between $270 and $370, right? Yeah. In the hole. Yeah. Okay. There's been one other film released essentially by Disney Fox, you know, major film. And that's The Devil Wears Prada 2 in the year 2026. Okay. This one is going to get them closer to being out of this. All right. They have a production budget stated as $100 million. Again, they never spend less than $100 million of marketing to our understanding. So a $200 million spend total, that means it had a $400 million break even. Jonas, it made $665 million. That's $225 million plus for this one, right? So $225 million on the plus side, which is phenomenal. Fantastic. So if we take the $225 million out of where they were before, Jonas, [00:03:57] Speaker 2: what are we at? We are at either $45 million or negative. So the Walt Disney Company is either $45 [00:04:03] Speaker 1: or $145 million in the hole going into the summer, right? Yes. Okay, cool. That's what we need to know. Because, Jonas, all right, here's the dealio. We got two movies coming out for this summer. And one of them is The Mandalorian, the other, not The Mandalorian, Toy Story 5, and the other is Moana. Now, Moana is on track to not do well. Is that correct, Jonas? [00:04:25] Speaker 2: That is very correct. I don't know who is interested in this, but finally, [00:04:29] Speaker 1: Disney is making movies for the blind. Right. So Moana is on track to perform like The Mandalorian, which is not good, eh? But they're on track to perform like The Mandalorian. And that means that's going to be a flop. That means that they're already 45 to 145 in the hole. Moana could sink them even beyond. So they could be 245, 345 in the hole. I mean, this thing looks like it could do Snow White level bad. And that's no guarantee. But Toy Story, Jonas, the question that we're going to here, and this is why I needed you, how much does Toy Story have to make? Okay, so let's say that Moana, let's be on the easy side. Let's say that Moana adds another $100 million loss. Okay? Okay. So we're anywhere between what? 145 and 245? Yeah. Well, with that additional 100 million, we're at what? 245 or 145. Okay. So Toy Story has to dig them out of the hole that much. Is that right? Yes. Okay. So walk us through, Jonas. How much would that mean then that Toy Story needs to make [00:05:30] Speaker 2: at the box office to dig them out of this? All right. So let's assume that Toy Story cost $150 million to make, which is, let's say that's a very polite and kind way to put that. Then we've got the fact that this has, barring the fact that this has Bad Bunny, this has Taylor Swift, it seems to be heavy on cameos on the indications that we're getting out of this. So this is probably the biggest movie of the year other than. So I'll actually say $150 million marketing budget on this one. And so we have, would you agree with that? That'd be about 300 million there if we're being [00:06:12] Speaker 1: very conservative. Maybe. Let me tell you this, Jonas. Toy Story 5 has a reported budget of 200 million to 250. We know that they usually overspend on this, but let's just say, let's just say 250, [00:06:27] Speaker 2: since 250 is the upper end of what's being reported. Okay. All right. So then we have an 800 million [00:06:34] Speaker 1: breakeven. Okay. Okay. So, right, right. Because 250 for the production plus definitely 150. So I think that's fair. $400 million to the total spend at least, right? Right. Okay. So 800 million. So folks, here's what Toy Story has to make in order to dig Disney out of the hole. So if they are currently in a hole of 140 to 240, especially after Moana comes out and we think Moana is going to be a bust, Toy Story needs to make, say it again, Jonas, how many, how much? 300 million? 800 million to break even. [00:07:07] Speaker 2: Right. So then about 1.1 billion? I think more than that. I mean, if we're talking on the light side, it needs to make 1.1 billion. On the heavier side, 1.3 billion, which I don't know if a Disney animated movie has that, has enough draw to get that many people in the theaters. [00:07:32] Speaker 1: So I, I think it may, I think it may. Well, it will depend on what's in the movie of, as we've said before, the second weekend is going to matter so much in this film. The first weekend is going to be crazy. I mean, it may make $400 million worldwide. It'll be crazy. But then the second weekend, we'll find out it wasn't woke. Uh, did the actors sound like they're geriatrics? Like we'll find out, we'll find out to the critics honest. Okay. Uh, this story out of, uh, slash film, I want to read this to you real quick. It says, as of this writing director, Andrew Stanton's toy story five is an eye eyeing an opening in the one 45 to one 65 million dollar range when it hits theaters next weekend. That's domestically, by the way, uh, we actually anticipate folks that it'll be bigger internationally than domestically. And that's where we come up with that 375 to $400 million mark. But what's amazing, Jonas is people are going to get crazy about this. They're going to say toy story has, has done it. Disney's back. And I just want to say Jonas that for them to get to break even for their movies this year, because people don't re they don't realize how bad the Mandalorian and Grogu, what a bad position this has put them in. They don't understand what Hoppers has done. Toy Story, even with Devil Wears Prada doing what it did, Toy Story needs to make 1.1 to 1.3 billion dollars. Not for Disney to say we, we made a ton of cash, not for Disney to say, oh man, we're back to break even Jonas. [00:08:56] Speaker 2: Right. And that's, that's with a pretty conservative marketing budget for a movie like Toy Story. Okay. I'll throw one more in there. Please. Avengers Doomsday is, is a, I'm 50/50 on whether or not that's going to be a big deal when it comes out. I know they're going to market it like it's a big deal. I know that that's one of the most expensive movies ever made. And the only reason I say that it's one of it's because even when you split it in half, I think they're going to end up spending more money on Avengers Secret Wars or the possible likely third movie in the trilogy that we think that they're planning there. So, uh, even all of that, um, I'm, I'm not sure that that movie is going to be able to break even because the, the mark might be 1.6 billion on that one before it starts to make any actual money. Uh, what an amazing predicament this company puts itself in where, uh, essentially their movies, which is the, the most forward facing thing they have. Their movies are a loss leader for the entire company that's supposed to support the theme parks, but it doesn't seem like Marvel's doing very well at the, at the theme parks. Uh, it doesn't seem like Star Wars is doing very well at the theme parks. I, uh, this all again, just seems like it's smoke and mirrors to try to convince the investors that something good is happening at the company. We've got potential. They're perpetual, uh, potential over at the Disney company. [00:10:25] Speaker 1: All right. So I'm going to show people why the investors are angry. Okay. They should get your calculator ready one more time. All right. Okay. All right, here we go. Mando. We've already called this out. We'll do it one more time. 165 production budget. We don't believe that, but whatever. Uh, and then the marketing spin is going to be at least, I can't do this. It's got to be 200. Okay. It just has to be. So even with their numbers, they're at, uh, 365. Okay. Which means, [00:10:50] Speaker 2: which means they need to get more like 750. Yeah. But we got, we're going to stick with the THR on [00:10:55] Speaker 1: that list and we'll leave that alone. Okay. So, all right. So 365. All right. Then we go to hoppers. Hoppers is 150 plus at least a hundred on marketing, 250 add 250 to that, please. 250 plus 365. All right. Then the devil wears Prada. We're going to add the production here and the marketing. We're going to say that's 200. So add 200 to that number for toy story. Toy story is, uh, 250 is what they're saying. Plus I think it's just 400 million. We'll call it 400 million. All right. And then Moana is the tough one Moana because they won't talk about it because it's so bad, but I think Moana is just so expensive that it's a CGI and live action together. Give it another 400. Right. It's a movie that they [00:11:38] Speaker 2: announced the end of principal photography twice, which means that it sounds like they shot the movie [00:11:43] Speaker 1: twice. It's no white pad. Okay. So Jonas, what is our number when we add the $400 million total cost [00:11:48] Speaker 2: Moana? Uh, so the devil wears Prada. We're going to, we're, we're going to subtract 200. No, no, no. [00:11:56] Speaker 1: These are just the total productions and advertising, everything added together. How much did Disney spend for the first six months of movies coming out at the box office? Uh, 1465. Okay. So 1.4 billion dollars spent on making and, and advertising movies, right? Right. Okay. Here's why we needed the, the calculator. You ready? Okay. Here's the S and P 500. Boy, I love this segment. It's nerdy. It's nerdy. We're in the weeds here, but we love it. All right. S and P 500 of the past six months. All right. The S and P 500 of the past six months is up, uh, 5.7%. So Jonas, if Disney, instead of making these movies had just dumped the one point, what did we say? $1.4 billion. Uh huh. If Disney had just dumped $1.4 billion into the S and P 500 and it had made 5 point, essentially 8%, 5.8% back on that, how much money would Disney make over what period of time? We're just these six months, just these six [00:12:53] Speaker 2: months. All right. Uh, what's the percentage again? 1.5, 5.8% on $1.4 billion. All right. One second. We got the, uh, the sum of all of these times that, and then divided by two. Uh, sorry. I, uh, I did that wrong. I need to make it a percentage. What do you got Jonas? Come on now. The whole audience is waiting out here. 42.3 million dollars. Okay. So at the end of the day, let me, so people understand this. Oh, sorry. Sorry. I forgot to, I forgot to multiply this by, uh, 100 million. Say what? I, uh, don't mind me. Don't mind me. Just give us the number, man. What are you doing [00:13:45] Speaker 1: over there? You're an accountant. What are you talking about? I'm not an accountant. I'm not, you're a cartoon avatar. $423 million. Okay. That's what I thought. Okay. $423 million. Okay. [00:13:57] Speaker 2: This always happens. You asked me to do a calculation. You have tell me no idea where we're going. So you say, oh, we're just adding marketing. We're, we're adding, uh, uh, break [00:14:05] Speaker 1: events. What it's a, it's a sabotage. Ladies and gentlemen, it's a sabotage. All right. So here's the deal. Disney needs to make at least that much money in profit for the investors or else the investors say to themselves, why did we go through all this drama? Why did we buy all these production crews? We could have just dumped the money into the S and P 500, invested it there and walked away with cash. So you have to, I, you have to outdo the S and P 500 because you, there's no effort in that. You have to outperform the S and P 500, whatever its returns are. Or people say, what is the point of all the effort, the teams, the thousands of people, the marketing, why did we do this to ourselves? If we could have just dumped it in the giant S and P 500 piggy bank. That makes sense, Jonas. Yeah. [00:14:56] Speaker 2: The market itself does better than the Disney company. Every cash does better than the Disney company. [00:15:02] Speaker 1: But Jonas, you know what the drive-bys are going to say? Grogu's selling merch today. [00:15:09] Speaker 2: So it's okay. Oh, I don't believe it. Yeah. How much merch? That's what I really want to know. How much money is going in? How much money is coming out? Because [00:15:18] Speaker 1: I, I have my doubts. So there you have it folks. Uh, the Walt Disney company trying to dig themselves out from being under lots of blunders and toy story. You heard it here. This is the crazy number, not for it to break even, but for toy story to help the Disney company break even this summer at the box office, 1.1 to $1.3 billion. Not to get that number we told you would justify all this effort. That's way higher than that. It might be 1.5 billion. It might be 1.6 just to break even. No profit. Just to break even 1.1 to $1.3 billion. And that's why you come to the pro channel. Thank you ladies and gentlemen, for checking out the video today. It's such a pleasure. Every time we get to endeavor together, explaining entertainment and keeping you ahead of the culture curve. 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