Mali Security Crisis Deepens Amid Rising Jihadist Threats and Regional Instability

[0:00] Ulf Lessing is the head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. [0:05] He joins us now from the Egyptian capital Cairo. [0:08] Good to have you with us. [0:09] So I'm sure you've heard the statements by the public prosecutor saying there's evidence [0:13] of collusion by military officers with the rebels and the fighters. [0:19] What does that say about just how secure the authorities' control is at this point? [0:27] Yeah, I mean, I'm sure there is a bit of collaboration. [0:30] Some officers are unhappy with the military government. [0:33] And you could see it, you know, I mean, a week ago, you know, jihadists, they killed the [0:38] defense minister by a precision strike with a truck loaded with bombs. [0:43] They know exactly where he was. [0:44] So obviously there is some, you know, some insiders, you know, providing information to them. [0:51] What does that say about the advance we're seeing in this assault? [0:54] Will we see other towns and strongholds fall after Qidal and Thessalit now? [1:00] Yeah, it's quite worrisome what happens in the north. [1:04] I mean, like your correspondent said, four major army camps are now gone, you know, four [1:09] towns have fallen. [1:11] The big test will be whether, you know, the large cities such as Timbuktu, Ngao, Nenaka [1:17] in the north, whether the government is able to hold them. [1:20] If they also fall, then anything might happen. [1:22] And then we are back to 2012 and, you know, the same coalition of jihadists and two-hour [1:28] grabbers, you know, took over the north until the French stepped in. [1:32] But this time it will be very unlikely that France will come back given the broken relationship [1:36] with the military government. [1:39] That's the north. [1:40] What about Bamako further south? [1:41] It's blockaded. [1:42] It's surrounded. [1:43] Are we likely to see an assault on it soon? [1:48] I'm not sure. [1:49] I think, you know, genome, these jihadists linked to al-Qaeda don't have enough fighters [1:55] to take on and control a city of four million. [1:58] But what they're going to do is, you know, to keep attacking the airport and trying to, [2:03] you know, interrupt supply routes. [2:05] So the Russian managed yesterday to bring in a convoy, according to video they published. [2:11] But that also, you know, binds a lot of forces, which they need in the north. [2:16] So that's kind of the tactic they do, trying to, the jihadists, trying to hassle the government [2:21] in the south, in Bamako, and, you know, eventually, you know, provoke protests of people getting [2:27] tired of this chaos. [2:29] And then they hope to get another government that might be more and more friendly towards [2:34] them. [2:34] But taking over the capital directly, the jihadists, they can't. [2:38] Is it, of course, likely to get involved? [2:42] You know, an envoy is heading there on Monday. [2:44] I don't think it's the time for diplomacy, because the two Arab rebels and the jihadists, [2:51] they think they have momentum and they will press on the advantage. [2:55] And, you know, also the military government. [2:57] I mean, all their reputation is built on an, you know, alleged trench. [3:02] So they can't show any weakness by negotiating. [3:07] They need to show the Russians that they're still in charge. [3:10] So it's good that there is an attempt to bring people together. [3:14] But right now, it's not yet the time for talks. [3:18] Who can the government perhaps turn to at this point? [3:22] You said it's unlikely we'll see a French intervention. [3:25] Some of the Afro-Corps Russian units, we've seen withdrawal from some of these towns which [3:32] have fallen. [3:33] Do they have other options? [3:35] Do the military authorities have other options? [3:36] No, not really. [3:39] They bought drones from Turkey, but Turkey has a policy of not getting involved and, you [3:44] know, and fighting rebels. [3:47] They just provide drone operators. [3:49] No, Russia is all they have. [3:51] I think the Russians, they will do the maximum because it's humiliating what's happening in [3:55] the north. [3:56] They're being forced out. [3:57] And now they have to show that they can defend the capital. [4:02] So that's the only option Mali has. [4:04] And the Russians say you also have to prove that they're worth their money. [4:08] Now, the Kremlin did say the Russian forces will stay in Mali. [4:12] How effective are they, though? [4:18] Yeah, not really. [4:19] They promised a lot. [4:20] And that gave Mali confidence to basically break with Europe, you know, kick out the UN [4:25] peacekeeping mission, hoping that the Russians will sort it out. [4:28] But we can see they're really stretched. [4:30] They maybe have a third of the manpower, the boots on the ground, which the French had, [4:34] maybe 1,500 to 2,000. [4:37] The French had more than 5,000. [4:39] So it's limited what they can do in a vast country such as Mali. [4:44] And all they can hope now is to defend the capital, I think. [4:48] How do you read the Western, particularly the U.S., position on this as, I guess, the [4:54] West is watching a Russian-backed authority come under fire from the FLA and Al-Qaeda-linked [5:04] groups? [5:07] Yeah, I mean, Europe is kind of, you know, the relationship is broken. [5:11] The U.S. recently reached out to the Malian military government. [5:14] There were a couple of invoice talk of a counter-assistance, counter-terrorism assistance. [5:20] You know, that might lead to something, I hope. [5:22] I mean, the Americans could be useful in, you know, providing intelligence to help identify [5:28] where the Jihadists are. [5:29] But I think they're not concerned under Trump what the Russians are doing. [5:33] They're probably more concerned that the whole region might, you know, collapse. [5:38] You know, Jihadists, you know, they're expanding in so many countries of the region. [5:42] Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Benin, Niger. [5:44] It's pretty much everywhere. [5:50] And on that point, how much of a risk is there that we could see other armed groups [5:56] in the region boosted by this offensive that's going on by armed groups in Mali? [6:03] Yeah, I mean, it gives other people an idea. [6:05] We already had in Niger's capital, Niyami, in the end of January, we had an attack on the [6:11] airport by Islamic State. [6:13] And the Islamic State is now trying to take over the northern city in Mali of Menaka. [6:18] So it creates a vacuum, the retreat of the Russians, and then others get ideas. [6:23] And I mean, the worst case scenario would be if the northern Mali becomes again this retreat [6:29] base for Jihadists, smugglers, or, you know, however you want to call them, which say then, [6:35] you know, it's the base to expand in the region. [6:38] So that's really the nightmare scenario right now unfolding. [6:43] All right, we'll leave it there. [6:44] Thanks so much for your analysis. [6:47] Ulf Lessing from the Sahel Program of the Conrad Adenauer Foundation joining us from Cairo.