NOW: CPI DATA INFLATION REPORT OCT. 2026

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: and we are live what's going on guys it is 5 25 a.m here in arizona and in five minutes the cpi data report is going to be released and markets are going to react let's go ahead and start sharing my screen i really hope that you guys enjoy this hopefully you learned something new and if you do please consider dropping a thumbs up and subscribing if you feel like we earned it with that being said we have a fun fun ah we'll see right we'll see if it's actually anything exciting i really hope that markets react uh in a good way or in a bad way right i'm i'm open to either um and yeah we'll have to wait and see nasdaq market is currently up 0.1 so nothing crazy we had a lot of choppiness yesterday we had a gap down a lot of choppiness markets ended slightly in the red but nothing wild looks like they moved up to highs of 746 for qqq and we hit lows of 742. we'll see if that range continues again that's normally something that we like to pay attention to if you're part of our lvp team is focus on the overbought levels focus on the oversold levels and then ask ourselves okay is it respecting those ranges do you want to short from the highs cover up the lows or buy the dips and go into the highs pretty interesting also pre-market session for micron micron went from highs of 966 all the way to lows of 936. so it looks like the memory chip space is still a little shaky right skhy which is a south korean company is definitely trading a little bit lower so the big focus that we have right now is what is the probability of a rate decision right or a rate hike right now there is a 20 chance that the federal reserve is going to raise rates a 79.3 chance that the federal reserve is going to pause we'll see once these reports come out i want to update this and see if it begins to shift right based off of markets expectation tomorrow or today in just a few minutes we should see if the inflation comes in higher than 3.6 we're currently at 3.4 expectations 3.6 for overall cpi 2.4 to 2.5 is the expectation remember the website that it's going to be updated on 1.5 is the bls.gov forward slash cpi i do want to remind you that these markets react instantly right this is why it's important to maybe not carry a position um right when these reports come out if you do not want to you know expose yourself to that kind of volatility that's always a reminder that we have for our beginners so 0.16 uh they'll click the results okay yeah early morning good morning good morning well it's early for me it's probably early for a lot of you guys here um you know as well so i really do appreciate you guys taking time and um you know watching the market react uh with me so hopefully it should hopefully it's an interesting one and um we can all enjoy it so again if it's not too much to ask don't forget to drop a thumbs up and make sure you subscribe to the channel so once the report comes out we'll go ahead and if it's cool with you guys we'll break down the report together i'll answer any questions and then if we have a few minutes we can break down even a few stocks with um a lot of you guys like when i use the investing pro software to do more of a fundamental analysis and hopefully some of you guys can use me for that today so um all right we have 20 seconds left all right i like that 5 30 a.m here in vancouver at work right now early bird yep 5 29 52 we have five seconds left five four three two one boom oh wow let's see september a point six percent increase that's what was expected the gasoline index rose 9.1 percent all items rode 3.7 percent that is higher yeah over the last 12 months all items in the index 3.7 remember expectation was 3.6 went from 3.4 to 3.7 all items in the index 3.7 percent that is higher than 1.7 percent that is higher than 1.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent [00:05:19] Speaker ?: all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent all items in the index 3.7 percent [00:05:34] Speaker 1: all items in the index 3.7 percent let's cover it all try to go long just 10 shares let's see all items all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in september that is more core yeah a 0.2 percent increase was expected to 2.6 percent 3.7 and 2.6 they always change the wording on these things okay so we did come in higher than what was expected for core we did see a larger month over month increase and we did see a higher overall cpi report so here we go cpi coming in at 2.6 expectation 2.5 for core came in at 3.7 expectation 3.6 can you use your ai bot uh to complete the analysis i can you guys want me to i mean it's i like looking at the report right we don't want to become useless um i just wanted to see if anything really presented itself look at that nasdaq with a sharp pullback into the red let's go down the list bloom energy down one point down two percent i mean did it affect it yes is anything crazy i don't think so yeah i was already selling off we had a nice pullback but it's already looking to recover um str that's a little bit more significant nothing there for unh spy down point you know quarter of a percent jp morgan really not much yeah it's some movement good right we talked about uh where this could this could push the market now let's look at let's see if the fed rate decision tool change it still hasn't updated right now okay would you guys like me to break down the report i can use the ai bot but i would like to explain to you the report just so you don't have to depend on ai am i being old school am i is my age showing yeah is that wrong for me to like want to show you the report and what it says we have a point six percent increase we took away the old month of september so the month over month jump right expectation uh was a point yeah it was a point six percent increase that's exactly what we got but just based off of the way it's calculated uh we still came in at three point six percent thanks i as you could see we're working against the two percent target this is overall inflation this is core inflation we want this working towards two percent two percent is down here as you can see based off of today's latest report you will now begin to hear people state inflation is moving against the federal reserve's mandate right of two percent or target of two percent if we look at we can pull it up here these are all the different line items that are being calculated on or tracked month over month so all they're looking at is food did food from august to september go up or down and you go down the list right we could see that there was no change for food there was a drop at food at home and then there's a few increases right uh increase for food away from home is that correct no that's energy yeah so energy and increase uh we see energy commodities increase of 9.3 percent so again the energy sector is just the biggest contributor to the rising rate of inflation and there's no question it's because of the escalations in the middle east the straight of her moves and sure you know the sanctions that were initially put um against russia right the biggest increase for the rate of inflation is fuel oil right fuel oil 15.3 percent increase in the month of september so if someone were to ask you hey johnny did you see the latest inflation rate yeah i did i saw that energy was the biggest contributor once again and the biggest line item was fuel oil with a 15.3 percent increase and you know gasoline all types 9.3 energy commodities 9.3 all that good stuff right if we go down the list over here we could see that um this is all items less food and energy so this is core cpi so it's just this little section here we saw 0.3 increase overall 0.2 increase for um commodities less food and energy wait what no that's gonna be for new vehicles uh used cars and trucks 0.7 increase so again vehicles both used um have been going up not necessarily a good sign um and why am i struggling to yeah apparel 0.3 increase medical care commodities a drop 0.7 uh shipping less energy services 0.4 shelter 0.4 transportation services 0.6 and medical care services 0.3 so all right i know you guys are done hearing me talk you guys just want to have me use ai okay but that's our rate of inflation current rate of inflation is 3.6 percent core cpi is core a 3.2 uh 2.8 uh that's down here why am i struggling 2.6 percent we have 3.7 for overall cpi all right okay let's go ahead and ask it so a cpi data report was just released what should i know about it and how are markets reacting [00:12:37] Speaker 2: headline cpi rose 0.6 percent for the month right in line with forecasts but the year-over-year number came in at 3.7 percent a tenth hotter than the 3.6 percent expected and up from 3.4 percent the prior month core also ran hot market reaction numbers are still coming in want me to flag you the second they [00:12:58] Speaker 1: land yes and also what do you think the federal reserve is going to do now that there is you know a higher rate of inflation are they more likely to raise rates to try to slow down inflation [00:13:13] Speaker 2: the market update from earlier futures are actually up s p about 0.3 percent dow 0.4 small caps 0.4 percent the 10-year slipped from 5.22 to 5.19 dollar and gold flat energy is the mover up 1.8 percent with oil past 95 on that hormuz story on the fed my read is they're not in a rush to hike again they already moved in september inflation's only a tenth over and the market's calm reaction suggests traders agree pricing for another hike at the end of month meeting is probably modest at best the bigger swing factor is that hormuz oil spike if energy keeps feeding into core that changes the math fast are you positioned for the open or just watching just watching as of right now but [00:13:59] Speaker 1: i like the little comment you said about uh core cpi being more of their focus can you explain to me why core cpi is more of their focus and not overall cpi core strips out food and energy because those [00:14:12] Speaker 2: two are volatile and mostly driven by supply shops a drought a war a pipeline issue stuff the fed can't do anything about what they can influence is the underlying trend in demand and that's what core is trying to capture if headline is hot only because oil spiked hiking rates to punish that would just choke the economy without fixing the cause but if core is running hot that means businesses and consumers are still spending in a way that's pushing prices up across the board and that's the signal the fed actually [00:14:41] Speaker 1: needs to act on perfect thank you for the update i also want to make sure that you um update the the market as of right now uh when it comes down to what it is that you're saying because in the last 10 minutes market has dropped due to that inflation report and futures are down nasdaq and s p 500 are down uh and tech is all down all due to that report so can you make sure that anything you share right now is within the last 10 minutes to make sure that it's taking the cpi report into consideration [00:15:16] Speaker 2: pulling the freshest tape with that cpi angle baked in okay that one's still running i'll read you the numbers the moment they land sounds good thanks good call on the timing the new read shows qqq down about one percent near 738 smh off 2.2 percent worst of the bunch tech down one percent banks down 1.1 percent with bacs miss in the mix energy's up 2.6 percent utilities up 0.7 percent futures from 531 s p down 0.2 percent nasdaq down 0.5 percent small caps down 0.7 percent dollar of 0.4 percent gold down 0.7 percent oil near 95 and 34 the 10 years still 5.19 but that quotes from 526 so it may have ticked up okay does that match what you're [00:16:22] Speaker 1: seeing yeah i just want to make sure when i ask you for updates that you take recent reports into consideration especially when it comes down to economic reports being released i just want to make sure that your information is relevant and most up to date that's fair and it's the right standard [00:16:39] Speaker 2: economic prints move fast and a stale number can flip the whole picture in minutes going forward i'll treat anything tied to a release as time sensitive and lead with the newest time stamp i can get [00:16:50] Speaker 1: sounds good appreciate your help have a good day you too ricky take care all right and there we have it um i like the reaction um you guys are probably like well no shit ricky you like when markets sell off um it's i i barely had any skin in the game like there was not much there um i just like that when the reports come out and if it is worse than what is expected i think markets have every reason right if the report came in better than what is expected i would expect markets to then rally this market reaction makes sense right inflation came in higher than what was expected markets drop markets have been so irrational lately that it's been kind of hard to expect markets to pull back really for anything right so at least at this point now we're retesting same previous lows we'll see if the sell off continues into the uh live trading um once markets open and yeah i mean i wanted to ask you guys do you guys want to take a few minutes and i you know if there's a stock that you're considering buying or selling or you want me to share my thoughts on it you want me to use investing pro with you guys here um you have me here for a few minutes would you guys like me to break that down all right qqq actively dropping free live trading today nope if you're part of lpp you'll be able to watch me trade live if you're not i'm happy that you're here um but no we're not going to be hosting a free live so again second link in the description down below it breaks down to a dollar and 30 cents a day if that's too much for you i mean i get it right i'm not trying to convince you but i'm definitely here to offer it whenever you're ready to join us daily live sessions every day and it includes the lpp loss and library everything is included i offer nothing else and again second link down below but nasdaq market slightly in the red we have a few of you guys asking me to break down different stocks let's go ahead and um let's do it all right rddt i haven't talked um i haven't looked at reddit in a while i don't necessarily like its volume uh it's quite a volatile stock i don't see there to be any clear sense of direction if you like trading this volatility from the lows of 143 seems to be a more common support all the way to the highs i would not see it for it to be worth the risk to trade it right in the middle ground the potential for profit to the potential for loss to me it's it's harder to understand what it's doing or what it can do right you can hope that it can begin to recover or that it's headed right back down or you can just wait right this is why i say that i like oversold and overbought reversals based off of common resistance and support zones this would mean that you know we would have to give it some time so if we look at um reddit typing it in into investing pro yeah i mean fundamentally speaking uh 34.3 p ratio revenue fair net income fair it's been growing out of that red uh 32 upside based off of uh fair value analysts revenue has been growing let's look at their bear thesis uh single digits yeah nothing nothing that i would personally care to as a growth stock to know that while tech is exploding right now aside from the past two days um that this thing is lagging behind i'm not the biggest fan this would not make sense as a good investment for me and 32 as a p ratio is also not incredibly 34 is not incredibly low knowing that it has already actually sold off a decent amount uh from its highs right from 208 now trading at 153 what is that a 35 drop a 25 drop 25 almost 26 drop and it's still trading at a 34 p ratio um i think there are much better deals out there fundamentally but again that's that's me i've never cared for reddit if this is up your alley then i respect it so um mu afterwards yeah i mean i'm paying attention to it we talked about if you're part of my lpp team um we'd like to see this thing run to the lows of 900 maybe the highs of 800 right i'm definitely open to buying a few shares right there's no i can buy 10 shares here and there and see if it begins to pick back up but as of right now yeah it is closer to that support range that support range can definitely begin to break once we and if we continue to sell off once markets open if we look at mu fundamentally again this is one of my favorite things about investing pro is that you know does your technicals align with your fundamentals are you investing or buying good quality companies or are you just hoping for the best p ratio incredibly low revenue incredibly high net income incredibly high right the concern with micron is more of the cyclical thesis right growth is explosive profit is massive but can this demand continue with you know the hint of china trying to enter as competition but u.s companies cannot buy chinese memory chips but is the fear enough to spook investors that's really what a lot of people are talking about right um yeah the memory industry remains inherently cyclical some analysts warned that the memory supply could double by 2028 potentially triggering price erosion and significant margin compression in subsequent years i want to remind you when you look at this company to see what this company is making 84 billion dollars there is not one of those bullshit companies that you're wanting to invest in that makes that much money that can actually compete with micron right the anthropics the open ai they have no map or no road map to profitability this company is printing right now but the concern is is that if competition does begin to present itself the reason it's able to make so much not just revenue that's top dollar right top line dollar i'm talking about bottom line dollar the reason that micron is able to make so much money right so much profit is because there's a shortage there's really no competition they're sold out for the next two years but that's kind of already baked into the price that's why when you look at you know micron on the larger time frame you can see that you know one from 200 to 1200 in a very short period of time this is why when it reports earnings and earnings are better than expected but they don't wow investors why maybe it doesn't celebrate micron is an incredibly company an incredible company fundamentally right now the concern is that if competition does begin to present itself that it's not going to be able to charge as much as it does now while it's in a shortage and then again memory tends to be cyclical meaning that it comes in cycles of it has phases of high demand and then there's an oversupply and then again they're you know they have to drop down their price they're not making as much and that's not as enticing to investors all right but i love micron micron is definitely one of my favorite companies right now it's one of my favorite companies to trade because it's pretty volatile but it's also a really good company anytime that it sells off to the lows of 900 i've really enjoyed buying those lows and allowing it to recover and then selling it into the highs again that doesn't mean that you have to agree with me but i've i've enjoyed that kind of back and forth lately because it's these memory chip stocks have haven't really made much progress in the past four months right from that initial sell-off and the fear of the south korean market they hit lows of or micron hit lows of 700 and then ripped right back up to 1000 right consolidated from the lows of 900 ripped right back up to 1000 lows of 900 ripped right back up to 1100 and then now we're headed back down right just like we talked about overbought levels we reminded beginners hey don't be greedy up here this is a common resistance range just for the moment of when it can pull back all right let's go ahead and break down two more stocks if you want me to break down your stock share it in that live chat okay after 2027 2028 it will dump okay nbis i don't normally care for nbis so i'd be more than happy uh to break that one down so nbis is supposedly a fusion energy company if i'm not mistaken right that's what nbis likes to see itself as again i respect anyone's right to invest in anything that their heart desires i believe nbis is an absolute gimmick of a company it's an absolute of a company and there's just a lot of excitement with nothing actually being delivered if you look into this company fundamentally cool 42.2 million dollars is supposedly what it makes it trades at a p ratio of 101 337 times its earnings but ricky it's in its early stages i get it well that's the risk that you have to be willing to take right when you look at this company it's insane right it's all speculation and it's all of what it can be nbis faces a 200 billion dollar finance financing gap to fund its five gigawatt contracted capacity through you have just it's it's all in hopes of can it continue to run this hype and wow investors of what it can be but again if you're willing to take the risk and it really does pay off i think that's that's great for you know those that want to take that risk down here right for those that bought at thirty dollars for those that bought maybe eighty dollars you have a lot of margin to work with right there's a lot of pullbacks that can happen now that it's so elevated i think you're absolutely crazy if you want to invest in nbis from the 200 to the 250 range again there's a difference between trading nbis it makes sense on why you would want to buy the lows sell the highs short the highs into the lows buy the lows sell the highs again we're all here for the same reason it's to make money but if you look at this company and all you're doing is looking at the chart be like yeah this thing's going to continue to grow it's one of the fastest growing companies for 2026 or 2025 but then you never took time to look at the company fundamentally and to see that it's oh wow it's a company that has a market cap of 56 billion dollars yet this company makes a profit supposedly of 42 million again just my two cents speculative and irrational valuations are only supported during irrational times markets are trading at all-time highs so sure we can support the case of nbis for now if markets really begin to sell off and let's say again i'm talking about worst case i am right if markets begin to sell off and everything begins to drop do you really think a speculative company like nbis is going to continue to remain elevated knowing that everything else even great fundamental companies the microns the metas the the googles those are all selling off what do you think it's going to happen to nbis it's always the most rational stocks that crash the hardest that's my opinion that's what we often tend to see and there's a reason right from the highs of nearly 300 per share to the lows of 149 it lost 50 in 30 days again do not put your money in something you cannot tolerate invest in anything that you want but with money you actually have and not with leverage but because when they're this speculative it can become very very risky so all right nike so what's the point of hating on mstr when you know it's going to go up in 2027 what i'd say if you think it's going to go up then talk is cheap put your money where your mouth is right put a heloc on your mortgage and buy mstr at 155 would love to see how that ages for you but you know you won't right nike is one of those companies that again as of right now i think is at a 12 year low right from the current levels um that we are on right now yeah it's just i've definitely considered it of as a potential investment for like my kids right because it's so cheap and it's like okay eventually maybe it has to recover fair value there's 38 upside p ratio is low 17 times its earnings it still does fine but it's definitely losing its edge right when we look into its fundamentals its revenue is no longer growing i would really like to see some change before i begin to poor and having i wouldn't mind owning maybe a few thousand dollars worth of nike for them down here but i definitely i would position myself in a way that i know that it can get a lot worse before it gets better it's been selling out for 12 years me buying it now is not going to change anything the cheap can always get cheaper so you have to make sure that you position yourself appropriately knowing that things can get worse especially if direction doesn't seem to be favorable would i care to trade nike no uh nike recently went from 31 now to high of 36 so if anything it's testing a previous resistance range it could have a gap down where we might want to be patient with that early entry so um yeah and that's it that's it for right now uh looks like we still got nasdaq currently yeah in the red down 0.64 percent we have micron down two percent to lows of 933 the more it sells off the better we hit lows of nine pretty much 9 29 yesterday we'll see if we actually end up making new lows beautiful i love it finally better deals right remember the only people that freak out when markets pull back are over leveraged people that did not position themselves appropriately if that's you i'm sorry that you know you're going through this but it's a lesson learned right before a major economic event you don't position yourself in a way that you can't tolerate direction going against you you always have to make sure and be optimistic that well if it does can i tolerate it and will i still be able to you know manage be able to manage and mitigate risk so again i do want to remind you the software that we're using to do more of a fundamental analysis is called investing pro you do not have to but if you want to use it it's the fourth link in the description down below they currently have a flash sale and it breaks down the price for investing pro to nine dollars and 45 a month again it's it's an expensive cup of coffee but again you're able to understand the companies that you're investing in and it's relatively pretty inexpensive right so you have 27 hours fourth link in the description down below it's called investing pro so whenever it is that you're ready to go check it out i have a full tutorial video on this i really do enjoy you know using it and i use it pretty much every day because i think it's important to tie both technicals and to understand those companies fundamentally to be able to make a more informed decision so i really do appreciate you guys time i hope that we're into thumbs up thank you guys again for tuning on into our cpi data report live stream we will be going live in the next 30 minutes for our lpp live trading session and that is where i go live privately with our lpp team if you want to tune into that it's the second link in the description down below take two minutes check it out there's an active discount that should apply for you at checkout if you have any questions before joining send me a direct message via instagram i would love to answer any questions you might have i appreciate you guys this time hope and wish you guys an amazing day be patient be calculated and most importantly watch your position size you can take advantage of the riskiest trades but if you do it with the appropriate position size it shouldn't devastate you even if you are wrong or it goes against you right we can all manage position size better like always let's make sure that we in the year on a green note