FOMC Minutes — Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: we're live baby welcome back everybody today today is the fomc minutes this is going to be a big deal in june chair fed fed chair chair fed fed chair kevin warsh gave his first fomc keynote speech and uh we were here live for it you were here live for it it was historic by every means we wished the era of powell goodbye it was a fun time a good time and we ushered in a new fed chair with the new fed chair we had many changes potentially many changes we're going to go over what warsh talked about at the fomc the major points and then at 2 p.m so in about 20 minutes we will have the fomc minutes published live and in those minutes we will get unique insights into the thought process the in behind closed doors discussion of what was said at the fomc these at times can be very boring just like the meetings themselves however this being the first meeting with warsh as fed chair it is undoubtedly going to have some surprises for us so without any further ado let's get into it let me know if the stream is good i don't know we've been having issues um let's get into it what i need you to do is tap the screen for me i need you to hit the like button send hearts send comments send opinions subscribe join us follow along what's up kai i see you over there and uh we're gonna we're gonna get this underway fomc today asked misha it is not the fomc but it is we'll say the next best thing it's the fomc minutes these are important notes uh discussions factors just behind the scenes stuff from the fomc meeting in june these come out every i think it's two weeks after the fomc every time and we cover them here because they do sometimes have some really good information really good just extra tidbits that weren't included during the meeting itself and as warsh has said and i guess we'll just jump into it uh he wants the fed to be basically less vocal these notes could prove to be more influential than usual uh we don't really know we don't really and we don't have a good idea of how warsh is going to run the fed yet and so anything we can get any information any comments any opinions even just vibes are going to be valuable uh from this from from warsh himself we had a really good grasp over how powell would act to be all but just knew what he was thinking at all times honestly from following him so much we really did just kind of know what he was thinking what he was going to do with warsh we have no idea we have literally two speeches from warsh we could go back and look he was on the fed board uh in 2009 during the financial crisis we could go back and look at some of that content we're not going to do that today i don't know if i'm ever really going to do that at this point that was almost two decades ago what he said then is not super relevant in my opinion to what he's going to do now or say no so let me jump into this gold what's happening crimson lore we'll look at gold we'll look at many charts i have oil pulled up here because i think oil and the dollar are going to be uh big players here the most likely to respond perhaps bitcoin as well to the fed notes the audio and video are not synchronized i wonder why hold up let me make sure nothing's weird can i get a can i get a reading over there pickle how's it sound is it is one nine right try refreshing that would be bad good good on pickles then try refreshing okay and while you're refreshing keep hitting those hearts we already have a thousand hearts on tiktok and we need more than that we need a thousand likes on the tube also you're good thank you friends thank you yeah i i can never tell you know we have thousands of viewers and someone's bound to have like issues right and i can never tell if it's on my side or on your side so i appreciate you guys keeping me up to the up to the loop so hmm i guess we'll go over kind of the main points at the fomc in june again it was warsh's first we wish powell goodbye and it was uneventful for the most part for the most part there was no interest rate change the vote on that was unanimous um warsh described the economy as expanding at a solid pace despite uncertainty in the middle east and obviously with energy prices uh the something that hit me the hardest during the fomc was warsh said specifically the inflation target the two percent inflation target has been missed five years in a row or something to that tune basically saying the fed has not gotten inflation under control to meet their mandate in over five years and that is absolutely accurate uh that is completely accurate i'm baffled honestly when i see sources saying inflation is under two percent i think sources like trueflation often report really low numbers uh i'm not sure i'm really not sure how they cook that up um the experience you and i have just in our lives buying things it's pretty obvious we're not seeing one or two percent inflation a year if anything we're probably running way hotter than these numbers are suggesting cpe came in it was it may into june at four point three point four percent making it the hottest inflation reading in i don't know five years plus uh that number came in again from june to july i believe and it was only three point two or it was something slightly lower it was like a fraction to point one or point two lower neither of which suggests that inflation is under control or that really the fed and the fiscal policy is on the right track that it's being too uh too dovish or not restrictive enough that's my opinion or my read on that um unemployment is the number that the fed is happy with we've seen unemployment around four point three percent remember unemployment itself is a kind of gibberish metric it doesn't really represent how many people are not employed and how many people are employed it only represents kind of revolving door of people who have lost their job i think it's in the last six months and haven't found a new job in that time frame and once they're outside of that window they're just dropped out of the metric altogether so they're no longer included in it but unemployment along with cpe cpi uh inflation numbers so employment inflation are basically the dual mandate that the fed looks to balance uh controlling the money supply with how the job market is doing and the job market at four point three percent unemployment is around where they want it it's around ideal we've seen powell say in the past so the number that's out of whack is the inflation number um a two percent target over five years yes continues to burden americans the committee is unambiguous and unanimous in its commitment to deliver price stability that was a big key part of the speech at the fomc just price stability something that they admitted has not been delivered in half a decade the good news or the news i think that they were trying to focus on was median projections of gdp growth at 2.2 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year uh pce inflation elevated near term and unemployment 4.3 they were trying to focus on the gdp growth and i think it was indirectly kind of jammed into this that all of the hopes and dreams were on ai that ai is going to help us outgrow this inflationary period or not even want to call it a period this inflationary spiral i think is really closer to reality uh and while there's uh logic to put some eggs in that basket i don't think that that is the the grand play i think going all in and just praying that this technology that is undoubtedly useful and undoubtedly will continue to have greater use uh will save us somehow save us from from just unresponsible fiscal policy from unlimited printing and spending from our government unlikely very unlikely uh the median appropriate federal funds rate was projected to be at 3.8 percent by the end of 2026 and 3.6 by the end of 27 i honestly disagree with these numbers worse himself said he disagrees with the dot plot and forward guidance that was a huge takeaway from the fomc in june that forward guidance was a tool that he doesn't think should be utilized uh that is in many ways restrictive to the fed that would leave them with just interest rate changes into hikes and cuts and quantitative easing and tightening in general those are their two main tools anyway but forward guidance was kind of an indirect sneaky way of having an additional tool and basically that's the fed just saying here's what's happening now here's what we think is going to happen in the near term future and here's what we think is going to happen a year two years three years four years five years down the road and i think the reason war pushes against that there is some logic uh is that expectation of inflation is a huge factor of inflation itself when people expect inflation inflation happens it's kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy and so i think he hopes to avoid some of the fallout by avoiding giving forward guidance that i i'm not really sure well he said that he will continue with the dot plot it's our favorite thing i mean i love it and it's nerdy uh but that he will not participate which is it just seems random because the way the dot plot set up we wouldn't know what he like where his opinion was anyway the dot plot doesn't distinguish between who voted for what it just shows basically where each participant as a dot represented as a dot but not not as a name so anonymously uh sees inflation expectations over different time periods the post-meeting statement was uh really short really short and simplified going along with his commitment to making the fed i'll say less chatty the fed being less chatty i think that's a fair way to put it it was more fact-based and some people report with forward guidance removed i mean in some ways forward guidance removed uh it because he doesn't feel as though providing forward guidance is right at this time that i guess that's what he said i don't even remember that but it's hard to not give forward guidance basically that's like saying you're not going to comment on any impacts down the road or what what you see down the road and as the fed i do believe that they should be operating more in the present and with what's going on now but that uh that again is kind of restricting to them because they often have not been in been like making decisions in the present basically based on lagging or past data it puts them kind of in a it's like a conundrum i'm not sure exactly how you can do this you know like you you can't make decisions on data you don't have yet so that by necessity kind of makes you lagging it makes you dependent on these sources that come in later uh there's probably no way to get that data in real time instantly reliably and so if then if you're not going to focus on the future what exactly are you going to focus on it's going to be an interesting minimum four years with wars i'm definitely looking forward to it he did impress me with um his speech at the european central bank along with lagarde and the other bankers he definitely impressed me the big takeaways from that and i'll wrap up i got one more thing to say about what he said at the last meeting but real quick interject this the thing that impressed me with his meeting with other bankers was he acted like an adult it's really rare these days especially in the united states in the government for people to have the the air the aura of an adult someone who likely is not going to be influenced easily is not going to be sidetracked or distracted he proved that many times shout out to sarah the moderator and that was a beast love her we'll have to start following her um she really tried to get him to say the things that he said he wasn't going to say tried to get him to answer questions they said he wasn't going to answer and every single time he remained on topic similar to powell people didn't like powell matter of opinion but that is why the world liked powell is powell was an adult he was on target on task not distracted and despite many attempts from forces around him stayed stayed on course and that's what we really want from a fed chair in the united states they don't have to make all the perfect decisions that'd be great if they did but uh we want someone who can stay on task and can can just ignore the noise and do what is what is at least best provided with the tools and data they have at the moment uh okay last thing we have just a few minutes until the fomc notes are out so yeah you got time to grab a brew and roll up lock in now put your seat belts on because uh yeah we got we got like just about five minutes until these notes are out so last point going over uh the fomc the task forces this is perhaps the biggest change the biggest visible thing that worse is doing differently i can definitely get behind a task force idea basically bringing in experts to weigh in on decisions i think that's great it's like something we don't do often enough anymore however it was a little abrasive the way that this unfolded he kind of just dropped in here and then just fell back on every question it was almost like these task forces are going to be a shield for him where he can potentially i don't know go against data or go against things by saying well that's what the task force said to do this so that's why we made this decision even if it goes against data or something like that but uh at minimum five task forces were discussed one was fed communications including potential changes to the dot plot and press conferences god i hope that doesn't mean that they won't have fomcs oh my god we already lost i already lost powell i can't take another hit um which it does go along with what he was saying about like reducing chattiness of the fed it's interesting uh a balance sheet task force to review the ample reserves regime risks and alternatives a task force on data sources greater use of real-time private sector data ai analytics god i hope not uh reducing reliance on historical surveys and revisions and on paper that sounds great in practice that is going to prove difficult as i said i'm not going to make a uh a call now about how that's going to go a lot of this is going to be we have to see how just how it plays out in in reality saying that you're going to use real time data and ai analytics i mean honestly sounds buzz wordy to me um if it were that easy i think that that would be a tool the fed would have already been practicing that's my honest take uh productivity and jobs task force the impacts of ai ai was like the buzzword during almost everything he said and that makes me largely uncomfortable largely uncomfortable but impacts of ai and other general purpose technologies on the feds mandates while ai is definitely big and definitely huge and i'd never deny that it will be a larger part of the future probably every year going forward i'm not sure that this justifies or warrants a whole 20 of it of the feds new task forces actually more than that because the other the other task forces also mentioned ai uh it really feels kind of like the 2021 like nft crypto bubbly buzz where it's like everything for some reason is just naming nfts or naming crypto and it's like i don't really believe that you know what these things are i don't really believe that you know how to use them even if there was a use uh i feel like you're just jamming them in because people are telling you to i don't know um okay last one inflation frameworks drivers of inflation and the feds responsibilities those are the five task forces that were announced the shirt i thought i had the shirt on backwards for a second random um those are the task forces that were announced and i'm going to give them all the benefit of the doubt to start i'm going to say i like the initiative i think that the fed has needed to update how they operate for a long time i do not know if this is the way to do it but i think some change is better than no change ooh it's got alert for spacex breaking down we'll have to look at that too in a minute um i think some change is better than no change what's really going to hit hard and really matter is going to be who gets put on these task forces he did not not he did not name a single name we have no names to my knowledge at this point we have been given that they are going to be educated obviously people uh and people who have held positions before in federal fiscal global fiscal kind of policy so that could be bankers uh fed members whatever um and he said it is not limited to just americans which i actually kind of liked i i think it's not a bad i think it's a good way to do it um but they could be chosen from a global pool so who is chosen is really going to shine if we get i don't know the equivalent of like rfk as the health director you know what i mean uh these task forces are obviously just like a sham at that point but if we see real respected names of people who know what they're doing appointed here that can logically contribute to these conversations and can add valuable input then they're likely to have a positive impact that is my take on this this is what i truly believe on top of who is in them we'll have to see how they function how much authority how much power they have when it comes to the fed and their decision making because we can have all the best people there but if they have no impact on the decision it doesn't matter and if we have all the worst people there and they have all the impact then it is then we're screwed right uh so how this plays out who's there and the influence they have in the fed are going to be the main things going forward this year and i'm looking forward to hearing those nominations if you guys have seen or heard any of them let me know what's up sebi subscribe and i see you bullish babe how you doing bullish babe let me can i do this well let me do this oh i can do it there you are comments there perfect done done we have two minutes until until the notes come out i did not expect to speak that long i appreciate you sticking with me here let me see what's up trades by blake never seen my eyes before it's a gift my friend it's a gift let me see did i miss any other chats on any of the other uh streams nobody nobody nobody all right cool let me turn the attention over to the chat here for the few precious seconds we have analyze f stock burner official what's up man what's up sure yeah what are you guys thinking spy bullish or bearish after the meeting uh unlikely to change in my opinion i don't think there's going to be a huge change from when these notes come out to right now but we will see we've never gotten these we've never had fomc notes or fomc minutes they call them but they really are notes we've never had them from an fomc with warsh so we don't have a foundation to kind of examine these or to understand them through i would honestly i would expect them to be dovish i thought virtually everything that warsh said was dovish all right i'm saying i'm saying dovish uh my bad hawkish i think everything he said virtually was hawkish so i'd assume these notes will also be hawkish there's a chance that they might not have a lot or they may be different than we're uh than we're used to or expected to did i see i did say wendy's you're right so it'll be bullish or bearish i honestly think it'll be neutral for markets i don't think that there'll be a big mix up right now especially considering there's like the war is back on now the war was we've won this war a hundred times and now we're back at it to win it 101 times um if anything that is likely to be a bigger driver than what is going to be said today let's take a peek though they should be they should be live let me fed fmc minutes what's up ron kashif calendars and meeting information okay june here we are released today let me pull this up [00:21:55] Speaker 2: so do it like that second to organize these tabs [00:22:09] Speaker 1: boom i'm going to pull them up here but then we're of course going to have ai help us out here break them down because it would be it would be a crazy task crazy task to uh try to do all of this reading this to you guys it would be very boring [00:22:34] Speaker 2: i'm making this small over here [00:22:37] Speaker 1: the extremely extremely boring i got oil pulled up here we did have maybe we called the exact bottom on oil i don't know i don't know it kind of seems like it kind of feels like it got the notes they are live for anybody joining us now you tuned in at the exact right time this is the moment so many tabs man this is the moment give me just a second we're gonna be breaking down these fomc minutes that were just published 60 seconds ago we'll be breaking them on down while i do this because i'm gonna need just a little bit of time while i do this i need you to hit the like button i need you to subscribe to follow to tap the screen i'm gonna need you to hype it up you can do it [00:23:41] Speaker ?: all right [00:23:52] Speaker 2: boom got that working on there what's up mike thanks for following [00:23:56] Speaker 1: how you doing israel jaspu can't hear a sound it's your phone that's interesting wow let's turn the volume up what's up queen fin rotten melon i'm gonna get my back cracked my back is killing me i don't know what i did is this for july so this is for june we're gonna watch the live video of the fomc meeting yikes um well on june 17th or something of last month june 16th you could have watched it live these are the minutes we're gonna be breaking these down live is it upper town just tell me is it up or down for gold i didn't even look at charts i am currently short on golden i'm currently short on it what's up feels real who else is here i want to know who's here today um ai is just about done summarizing those minutes for you so i'm gonna break them down i see one nine what's up brother over on youtube's abdul men salama adam mikhail afi gorilla what's up eight bp trick shots amdeer animal viral videos bob saget boost card cbk wahoo professor bean's hair is like on my nose uh crypto gym christy dnc crypto needs red bull crypto steve-o digital content dino gamer evil feels real fernando media god's will chizekzi if i butch your name sorry guys uh harmonic fisherman hits chobzia there's some hard names today you guys are giving me like tongue twisters israel jospu isaiah charia i thought it was a good idea what's up brother uh easy coogan jaman koala john doe kevin vh90 lack man jaredon lucia 870 what's up poppy what's up m2m meet sheath wow we have a ton of viewers on youtube right now what's up man the sound of sis iq sus iq that's a funny name bro uh i am a kevin via dude who kui kuru kuru luk man jaredon um monte carlo mk trade mr dinkles what's up dude um muex fx mutharaj nasa gov 90 neem malema nimoy nomad official jeremy orlando philip kloss dude i'm like only in the peas prince pathy uh queen finsoff ran ram nag pure rachel palm these are the hardest these are the hardest names we've ever had what's happening rob with rob wit dummy ross smith there's there's a name rotten melon productions russell justin d anders sammy samurai cat skull failure sand jog style by style by stacy fizzy sin tar tune gapta t joss cholly pickle therosby swamp deal taking profit thomas seco tiris carlos dude we must have thousands of viewers on youtube right now because there's so many chatters uh truth player two butler two mommy vingastal salawins wiz wealth xz queenie yikes it's drama uh yogi vibes you grow i grow zach gunhong holy 501k what's that man what's the uh youtube is the same as on tiktok just that tom crown just tom crown oh dude you guys there's so many people here how many people are here there's almost two okay we've almost have 2 000 viewers on youtube that adds up i did not look at the numbers at all you tuned in at the right time at the exact right time i know i was just shouting people out on their names and you're like what is this guy doing turned into the exact right time because we are breaking down these fomc minutes right now at this very second so summary of the fomc policy decision the committee voted unanimously 12 to 0 to maintain the target range for the federal funds at 3.25 to 375 it also reaffirmed policy of maintaining maintaining ample reserves in the banking system the post-meeting statement was significantly shortened and revised interesting those are really similar to these other notes anyway uh it removed previous language suggesting an easing bias and instead highlighted solid solid economic activity despite uncertainty in the middle east strong productivity growth capital investment and stable market conditions it stated that inflation remains elevated relative to the two percent goal yeah we we know all that key economic developments here we are optimism about the potential resolution in the middle east conflict including an iran memorandum i feel like we've we've had uh a ceasefire a peace deal and like maybe even a new war twice since this fomc in june they were really hopeful however treasury yields rose 20 bps on the 10 year and the dollar strengthened modestly equities rose sharply s p by six percent led by tech and ai policy rate expectations have moved higher just as i was saying inflation is elevated and higher than a year earlier april pce totaled at 3.8 percent core at 3.3 percent staff estimated may figures at 4.1 total and 3.4 core drivers included pass through from tariffs higher energy input costs from the middle east conflict the straight of herma's effects obviously and strong ai related demand the labor market stable and balanced what's up demas how are you man unemployment rate held at 4.3 solid gain solid payroll gains roughly matched labor force growth wage growth was around 3.4 percent slightly lower year over year it's interesting they keep saying like oh the like these economic numbers are good and strong and stable and then it's like when you look at any of them individually it's like none of them seem to support that i maybe i'm maybe i'm missing something real gdp expanded at a solid pace in q2 supported by strong ai related business development data centers equipment software and resilient consumer spending real private domestic final purchases increased foreign growth was mixed weakened in some regions due to higher energy costs and lower confidence from the conflict uh inflation forecast revised higher for 26 due to incoming data energy costs and ai effects that doesn't make sense uh ai messing up the summary of this it doesn't make sense but that's expected to slow in the second half of 26 as some of the shocks fade then decline further toward two percent by 2028 growth solid of course that's what they always say near or slightly above potential supported by productivity unemployment expected to stay near its longer run level elevated uncertainty in the middle east and ai effects risk to growth tilted slightly downward risks to inflation tilted upward upward giving a higher possibility of long-term persistent inflation as we keep saying the participants views uh word participants generally agreed that inflation had risen further and remained well above the two percent target with increasingly broad based pressures tariffs supply disruptions ai demands for good services and electricity that's another thing i don't think most people i'll interrupt myself here a lot of people i don't think understand especially people rooting for rate cuts um are also people that are typically very of the mindset that ai is going to like grow us out of this rut that ai is uh we should basically people who think we should put all the eggs in the ai basket a lot of those people don't understand that all of this all of this data center building all of the ai productivity we're talking about those are all going to drive inflation ai is go if we build it up the capacity that we want to build it it is going to consume an insane amount of our energy energy is essentially the baseline of inflation uh we can we already have statistics that show that when a data center is built near you your electricity goes up whatever percent uh too much anyway back to back to the participants views i'm not a participant on the fomc yet borsh task force right here sign me up uh medium and longer term inflation expectations remained well anchored the labor market was stable and balanced not generating inflationary pressures economic activity was solid driven by ai related investment of course that's like the whole thing now almost every single sentence has been that all supported holding rates at this meeting i agree i didn't think that they were going to raise rates rates at this meeting but i think towards the end of the year they will i've used a solid cause for raising rates but agreed to maintain the current range some viewed policy as not restrictive or only slightly restrictive future actions will be data dependent scenarios discussed include both potential easing if inflation declines yeah if it's if inflation declines then we can look at easing absolutely and firming if inflation continues to be elevated which is what i think we're looking at communications many participants supported shortening the post-meeting statement and removing the easing bias language removing the easing bias language so removing the dovishness removing the cut talk chairman kevin warsch announced plans to establish five independent task forces led by leonardo donatello michelangelo rafael to review key aspects of monetary policy conduct communications including the scp balance sheet data sources productivity and jobs specifically ai impacts and inflation frameworks these will examine issues from first principles other notes yeah there was there was not that much in these the desk's domestic operations were ratified unanimously no foreign currency interventions the next fomc meeting is at the end of this month july 28th or it's 29th on the wednesday attendance included chairman warsch and was full set and the full set of the fomc members and voting participants the minutes the minutes portray a committee focused on persistent here here's the highlight of all of what i just said i know it was a lot here just here's one sentence the minutes portray a committee focused on persistent inflation risks amid solid growth and stable labor conditions focused on persistent inflation risks if you take one thing away take that away uh they reflect a deliberate shift towards more concise communications i don't think that's bad reduced forward guidance arguable and internal reviews of the policy framework under the new chair this aligns closely with the tone and announcements from chair warsch's june 17th press conference exactly exactly precisely it's exactly this is exactly what we expected um i read the whole meeting as rather hawkish a lot of people walked away and were like oh that was dovish that was a i couldn't help but think like why do you think that like what about it was dovish the they talked about inflation risks the whole time there was like some hopium sprinkled in of like oh ai but like it does all inflation risks what do you guys think let me refresh the chat here whoo dude so many messages over on on youtube holy buy gold says uh clips gold the 14 is gold the thing why are people looking at gold today can anybody tell me that verhoofty let them i don't know as long as it's not just one person spamming and let them spam let them go i don't care keep the hype going gold shorts still on the table what is happening here with all these is there a meeting or just reports clicks that was the fomc minutes so they after the fomc two weeks later they release the minutes the minutes are like the behind the scenes talks notes of the fomc so they do occasionally contain information that was not said during the fomc meetings sometimes they will kind of uh flush out ideas a little more these were heavily focused on what we heard on the meeting these were task force inflation risk inflation is not a target labor market's fine that's pretty much where it was there was no real surprises there dude people are going nuts where can you watch the meeting minutes report you just did my friend ask it to simplify yeah i mean i already did yeah that's what i did i already did it there just wasn't that much in them i'm surprised i'm really surprised yeah i don't know what's happening here there's a lot of uh there's a lot of people talking about gold and silver maybe we do maybe we do time them out if you time out people who are spamming give them like the lowest time out what is it we have like 2 000 viewers on youtube right now so people are just going going nuts uh give them give them a one minute time out if you time people out you're good probably some bots probably buy gold silver i so what's going on why are so many people talking about gold and silver in this chat what is happening what's up it's uh mr i'm awesome how are you dude i did not i don't know thank you my friend appreciate your super sticker um i've been looking at this gold short since the end of june 4100 i i don't know i'm not sure why people are excited um sunday hit 4200 now looks like it's kind of returning back to the lows of the end of june not seeing anything super special here am i missing something about gold at the moment market doesn't expect the market what's up new york sub dark side keep it real what's on this chart this is gold is it hard to see on tick tock the chart i don't know why it's so bad resolution compared to youtube i don't tick tock like doesn't like trust us for some reason i don't know they won't like let me do stuff large people yeah i mean i know a large people a large amount of people trade gold and silver brother but uh we've been live streaming here for seven years and i mean pretty much daily and just unusual the amount of people saying gold and silver right now it's weird what is like we see this kind of if these are bots like whoever these people spamming like we see this kind of like weirdness with like like meme coins and like you know just like scams who is who is sending bots out to promote gold like like how many trillion dollar asset like how could they possibly influence it with like a i don't know 2k stream i don't know man it is weird oil rebounding gold i just i don't know i don't know man it's if it was like pumping right now or dumping right now i would get it more but it's like gold's just kind of sideways shift has taken over the chat maybe it is shift i'm short on gold at 4100 i'm short on gold uh i think the stop loss makes even more sense now than it did you could you could move it down to like 40 40 200 where's the minutes isn't happening at 11 what's up adjustable uh yeah what's up fulsome hodl no the minutes the minutes have come and gone the minutes uh were published at 2 p.m east i just went over them uh shortings risky at this level could be could be that's what stop loss is for could be short could be could be risky we've had quite a few subscribers so i mean it wasn't this is the thing is it wasn't all bots though like there's some bots chatting but like not all like we've had a lot of subscribers what's up waleed maverick key max wild wonders bapak mohammed k axel do dreams abandoned channel oliver logo what oliver logo maker network prince sam ton chabaab v adventures lib bliss sankit busu and cards katel jb saeed cvt gossip helene vincent we've had a lot of uh we've had a lot of new subscribers more people if you're out there right now is the time join the wave join the excitement here uh we're about to crack into some charts we just went over the fomc minutes we just summarized them gave a solid solid breakdown if you missed that i don't know rewind the stream like 20 minutes exactly 20 minutes ago is when you will find the start of that i'll put time stamps on the stream at the end so if you missed you can go back then no speech today there is no speech i'm sorry friends i'm sorry i know whenever we do this a lot of people get confused they think that the fomc speech is happening the minutes are released two weeks after the fomc there are summary notes behind the scenes thing and they do tend to have some valuable information in them the next fomc is july this month the 29th it's the last wednesday of this month so tune in then for that don't miss that but to even stream daily do that i mean a lot of different stuff yeah certainly certainly i don't stream a thousand trades every day no no uh we've been streaming i say daily you know daily enough we've been streaming daily on youtube for seven years lie just trades charting fomc monetary events all kinds of good stuff let's blow up our accounts today sure let's do it uh yeah i'm i'm bearish i gold isn't a downtrend i'm bearish on gold until it breaks the downtrend i mean let's be real it's facts are facts uh if you can get back about 4 300 things look decent for gold to break that downtrend if you don't you are just putting in more lower highs lower lows and i think you're trading back i'll say like 3 500 minimum this was a this was from a stream we're talking about possibilities 3 500 minimum back to the resistance of april of 25 untested resistance could look to see support there um oh i'm gonna hesitate to go lower to like make a forecast beyond that there's no real point of it i do think gold would be a long at 3500 if it retraces to there in this year it'd be a long what else can we look at i guess nasdaq added oh yeah nasdaq added spacex yesterday and the rug has begun the rug has begun why gold silver not moving why would they be moving today uh on iran war i guess because the markets are exhausted from hearing about the same war that's my guess what's up fg mert mk there's a lot of new subscribers welcome brothers i need you guys to hit the like buttons tap the screen send hearts subscribe join our fam grow up gold we'll look at bitcoin yeah david we'll do bitcoin next uh spacex though right now is actually taking the cake in my opinion it was just added to nasdaq officially yesterday and it is now traded to the lowest price post ipo post ipo lowest price right here right now uh 146 dollars on the dot yikes yikes uh we did have a little scalp long looks like we scalped the swing low to swing high and got out and it dumped spacex is now in a downtrend surprising i don't know hopefully not anybody here the ipo price at 135 probably gonna be the next spot to look for a bounce that would be my best guess bye you guys are bought right 35 not coming 38 max yeah yeah we'll see time will tell my friend uh spacex let's see 135 dollars at the ipo price i think that's where we're going i think that's where we're headed we just broke lower again the inclusion in nasdaq not giving it any buying power apparently just trading lower on this news that makes no sense makes no sense to me looking for oversold on the hour that's going to be like in the day there's just not a lot of candles here to work with breaking lower all right just i guess send it send it lower if i want it to be contrarian to the short position i might look for a long here back to like that 157 156 area previous support i don't like this trade though at this point i think you're catching a knife for something that's looking to go to to 135 i think i i probably would be hands off here until i should put 135 alert at minimum 135 on top of spacex let me see spacex versus tesla actually not trading at its low we'll come back to that we'll come back to that on base metals like copper dick capper i actually haven't looked at copper in a while we could look at copper i'll keep looking at metals if you guys keep subscribing how's that sound are they hawkish or dovish i think that they're hawkish i personally think they're hawkish i think everything that um warsha said himself has been hawkish i think that there's room for interpretation with his task forces as these ideas especially depending on who's on them and how quickly they're filled that maybe those will uh add a little dovish tone to it but i don't understand how anybody would have listened to him at the fomc or at the european central banking committee and taken away dovish i just don't know hawkish means sell everything gin chunk uh probably not i don't know i don't think anything ever means sell everything usually panicking is not a great idea i've looked at copper in quite a bit copper the slow mover of these metals uh 6.75 slight pullback copper looks healthier at this point in my opinion than gold or silver copper is moving really slow but but it isn't it is in an uptrend gold and silver cannot say that tested six dollars i think six dollars would be a good entry it already hit it son of a b hit it monday even worse i guess not light is away like is a but no no no no no no no no man put on music i'll do that later got some bearish divergence here on copper for your highs we have higher highs in price we have a lower higher highs on rsi not exactly what you want to see money flow trickling off with momentum copper the thing that copper has going for it in my opinion is simply that it doesn't seem to be following gold and silver at this point uh anything not following gold and silver has a shot it continues to climb up the high the lows continue up the highs continue up not in the downtrend i'm not seeing particular strength here though uh it looks like a double top here for may and june rejected right around our 1618 extension our 675 target if copper does break 675 wow this is indian market there you go thank you chris uh it does break 675 i think you can see a run run to eight dollars pretty quickly but this is not this is this is the only thing this has going for it is it's not going with gold and silver eyed it out eyed that 618 maybe uh yeah what's the draw down there nine percent get like a two to one risk to reward ratio back to 675 i think any of these can be played if you're looking for bearishness i think 675 is the the target gold down to 3900 says bruno lola bruno lola but everybody's about gold today everyone i'll take it i don't i don't know what's happening a lot of gold i don't know a lot of gold bugs from india today what's up india welcome our indian friends we are actually dovish are you julius caesar are you the fomc is not clear and mark has moved enough today that's why it's just accumulating i don't really know i don't really know what you're saying there my friend uh i again i am personally looking for further downside on gold personally placed this short position the end of june let's look at this again really not a super difficult uh analysis here not not looking for anything super complex or super confusing basically basically gold hit its all-time high in a euphoric frenzy it had what i would call like a a blow off top a failed rally into march a lower low and then it's just failed highs when buyers come in they do not buy higher sellers are taking profit it seems like on every little uptick when i got actually bearish on gold was probably in like early may the bounce from march was not a bounce that convinced me that this was still trending up um just lackluster buying pressure the return to 4100 in june retesting that support with an even smaller bounce that just immediately rejected uh from 4300 this previous support in march broke lower uh broke lower once it closed under 4100 that's when i started to look for the short there and i mean on monday there was a shot that this was like maybe maybe gonna like hunt me out here on the short at still of course possible but man i i don't think long is the play i don't think long is the play 3900 i think is definitely possible but i uh this trade will take patience if i am on the correct side of this trade if if short is the answer here which i think it is but if i'm right this is not going to be a trade that resolves like this week like this is probably a trade you're looking for i don't know by the end of july maybe into august like at some point in q2 i would not look at a short on gold today and expect it to be at i don't know 3500 tomorrow that's that's probably not happening that's probably not in the cards thank you folks appreciate you dude how much time remaining for big move chris are you timing these people out are you are you i can't even tell timing them out yeah just time them you can time them out don't hide them gold is principle similar to bitcoin i agree similar i think people are doing themselves are not doing themselves a favor when they say that like bitcoin is a digital gold or something but i can agree that they are similar because they are commodities they are they're non-yield generating i think that's a strength for them though bitcoin is definitely not having a great time though bitcoin's not having the best day here the fomc minutes don't seem to have had a meaningful impact on price today we are 200 week moving average we are back below it now that's like 62 62 62 62 6 currently at 62 000 what i really do not enjoy right now is our beautiful bounce on monday that busted back to all two highs via like after sailor's cell this was looking so awesome um you retook the 200 week moving average you tested july's vwap right here i should make this a different color tested july's vwap things were looking awesome at that higher high and now we've just collapsed back down um lost the 200 week again now trading below july's vwap this is actually almost this is the first time in july that we've traded under the vwap for multiple candles since the first on the first of july for a few hours we did then we were finding support there and it looked like we had a bullish trend established above not as much today definitely not as much today bitcoin is just in a really rough spot um i love bitcoin bitcoin is my passion i am where i am all in i've been all in for like 10 years but uh i do i do not see super bullish things for bitcoin in the near future i pray that changes i really do but uh prayers thoughts and prayers man are just probably not the training strategy right it's really done nothing we have another lower high i wish i had more to say about bitcoin my analysis has not changed in weeks now really last week's close was nice it was back above the 200 week and you just lost it right away we could still close back above by the end of this week but it's 59.5 if i was looking for like a scalp long 59.5 scalp long i don't know back to 62k if we see 59.5 back 62k could be played xlm what's up mr slippers it's just timed out that's good can quantum crack bitcoin no i agree not not not reasonably in like a i don't know any time frame that's worrying now [00:57:10] Speaker 2: what a weird statement and bitcoin is about to be one dollar [00:57:14] Speaker 1: dude we have some we have some very very interesting people here today i love it i appreciate it we got a lot of new subscribers today we got denisha's here i am 47 gaio david jinn we've had like i don't know maybe a hundred subscribers new subscribers on youtube today that rocks what's up a uh angel pina c2 romero band holo band hollows chowed hairy fleet consultante dark sigh what's up bro finally names david b dark side good names i names i recognize brutal market bro it is it absolutely is a brutal market bitcoin is this is the most brutal cycle that i've ever experienced i've been in bitcoin 10 years this is the most brutal cycle i've ever seen it's crazy what's up digital content dlo brown dxb some familiar names there's a lot of unfamiliar names here today it's good to see some familiar ones what's up eoc evil g4rb ivan r jin chung jewel one kevin de pawon pawon kiru belt chris pax what are we looking at chris larry manto dude the vergody tuxnor who are all these names welcome people who are who are all of you i don't know but welcome it's good to have you here today's a different day we went over the fomc notes uh we're kind of like parsing through some charts there's not a it's not a huge amount of trading going on today lots of people here somehow maybe maybe we're getting rated by some other streamer i don't know looking at gold gold isn't moving that much it has did not move off of the fomc minutes today i don't think anything's changed here there could be a narrative there could be an argument to be made that the war in iran is not over and that should be bullish for metals i mean i agree but i would also say it hasn't been over since it started not even for one minute and it's probably not going to end so i don't think markets are really responding to that right now that there's no change sup charles by all side what's up brother you're buying gold right now do it then then you can do it it's up silent orbit uh there's no change there like it we're gonna hear of more ceasefire we're gonna hear more oh i ran like come sunday night oh i ran as they said that they want peace now they're giving us everything and then by monday morning it'll be like ah we're gonna bomb them like all right nothing's changed i we're not getting out of there anytime soon we very well like at this point we very well may be there past trump's term like we don't have a great history of getting out of places especially not iran um soul a lot of you looking at soul i think there's a solid trade on soul coming up uh 83 target take profit target hit prices rejected awesome uh looking potentially for a fill at 75 dollars when we place this trade it didn't look as good as it looks now it looks very good now today's about four and a half percent downside candle reaching down to that 75 dollar mark and i like this entry i like it for a few reasons um one it is a pretty pretty classic support to resistance move resistance doing its thing looking for a pullback i like this because it's still like this it doesn't invalidate an uptrend it doesn't invalidate further highs for solano let's see yeah 382 retrace is what it is um but looking left we have a beautiful order block here that is likely to act as support this was our previous resistance both in june and uh both in june and july you can see that right here 75 was tapped multiple times before finding a higher low and climbing back up 75 long position would be a classic resistance flip to support on top of that we have the 20 and 50 moving averages on the day converging bullishly right there i think that's solid we had some really compelling evidence for solana against bitcoin and ethereum but i think that both of those things have started to reverse here and this is what i'm paying attention to solana was giving us a very solid bullish signal through its bitcoin pair and simultaneously it's ethereum pair that is not the case at the moment not at the moment here's what i'm going to be looking at to invalidate that though tapped zero zero zero one now pulling back looking for a retest of zero zero one two against bitcoin i think if solana is trading at 75 while it tests this level previous resistance um i think it will likely bounce i think solana usd will likely bounce the f pair i think i got alerts on not doing quite as good that looks a little uglier oh that could it could line up right here could line up with the previous resistance as well it's interesting both of these pairs are pulling back i like the way this is lining up honestly g4rb dude this we got the strangest people in chat today i'm digging it your first year in crypto i'm so sorry man [01:03:05] Speaker 2: i'm so sorry [01:03:10] Speaker 1: on bitcoin i see it pull back to 59k probably i probably realistically solana shortlana strc strc bouncing wow strc bouncing here we go talked about strc and its crazy v sheep recovery what are we looking for here the right shoulder 77 74 longs played short got nuked of course at 82 long potentially from 85 or 80 to 50 because this can still move down equal lows across that inverse head and shoulders and return to 90. i think strc is looking to go back to its 100 peg which is weird weird because i didn't expect it to micro strategy filling our short at 100 clockwork dude i need to start trading uh strategy instead of bitcoin fire weak bounce on strategy here back to previous support i think sellers are going to find it i think it's still heading lower up to five years away uptrend brah what's not which what's up trending kim someone tell you a good day or good after sidemen best clips good day sir good day to you extreme fear could be matt uh could be we've been technically clear all of those uh fear and greed meters have been saying where we've been in extreme fear but i mean i don't know it's not really fear it's just boredom it's like fear that this is so boring that it's never gonna like we're gonna downtrend forever that's like the fear i don't know what the hell nbis is nibbis group still pulling back hymns hit 38 profit taken it's kind of looking like maybe a higher low there what's up bayanda crazy disadray benham what's up friends what's up my friends stream is against me i don't know why it keeps i wonder like why i keep saying that it just keeps saying stream disconnected on my software but it it hasn't been [01:05:59] Speaker 2: damn damn it's wild it's round what a weird stream what's strange strange stream [01:06:15] Speaker 1: i'm not mad i'm not mad about it's a good stream what a strange stream um yeah i don't know i don't know guys there's not that much going on we had the fmc minutes we went over it did a good job a lot of you tuned in here i appreciate it i think i'm gonna wrap it up we're gonna be live again on friday at the latest we may be live tomorrow if something spicy happens but we we will be a lot we will be alive on friday we will be going live right here and you should join us we have the fmc at the end of the month and i will uh give you guys a heads up here next week i will not be around i'll be taking my very first vacation ever live streaming here for seven years and never taking a vacation i'll i'll be out all next week i know i'll miss you guys it'll be rough it'll be rough but i'll come back with a new a renewed energy and a renewed passion for trading and charting if you haven't joined our discord you should join it right now discord.gg slash tom crown it's free just get in there and then just jump ahead join the community there you should sign up with our exchange partners they are in the video description below femex and byd5 use my link you don't have to do kyc they're great places to trade i've been working with them for a long time they help keep the channel running during the slow times and i'm very appreciative of that um make sure you've liked and subscribed turn your notifications on while i'm gone on vacation i will be dropping a new trading video a new trading uh how-to tutorial guide you can check those out on the channel on the playlist they are wonderful awesome videos they're also free the best in the biz what's up ayaz appreciate you appreciate you all tuning in i love you guys i will catch you very soon