About this transcript: This is a full AI-generated transcript of LIQUIDATION: The Stock Market Pain Continues. from Meet Kevin, published November 5, 2026. The transcript contains 20,845 words with timestamps and was generated using Whisper AI.
"Oh man, your boy Kevin just lost lots of money Oh, that's okay, I am with you Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, oh my god, what's..."
[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Oh man, your boy Kevin just lost lots of money Oh, that's okay, I am with you
[00:00:07] Speaker 2: Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, oh my god, what's happening?
[00:00:22] Speaker 3: First of all, all this whining by Wall Street, it's making me sick 140% of GameStop was short, GameStop was short, short You can't allow Wall Street to short 75% of a stock. Crush these companies into the dirt. Thousands of stocks into the dirt. Then when the individual makes money, everyone's entrepreneurs. I have a kid who bought a house. Payed $50,000 and bought a house. After decades of the shorts, you have to accept the fact that individual investors are playing the same game that you're playing and now you're losing. Here we go. Come on. Push it.
[00:00:54] Speaker 2: Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Oh my God. What's happening? Here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip.
[00:01:11] Speaker ?: Here we go. Come on. Push it. Push it. Push it. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Oh my God. What's happening? There's a lot of power in this organization online. See how many people can get together in a subreddit. I think it's really funny that the K-Stop stock is going up and just affects the market in that way. There's 20,000 people live in a Discord who are spamming rocket emojis yelling, Go to the moon.
[00:01:53] Speaker 4: Oh man. What a wipeout in the stock market. We got the devil's number 666 on the queues. We got Diablo. This is no bueno. There are no support lines where we are going. The only support line that's left is at zero. We're going to zero. And I couldn't be more excited.
[00:02:27] Speaker 5: No, this is pretty remarkable. I mean, look at this flush out that's happening right here. This is insane. So, yesterday, we had a minor red flag that, you know, wouldn't have signaled this sort of sell-off today. But yesterday's red flag was rejecting 700. 700 was a previous floor. That previous floor has now become a rejection point. App Lovin' good news is finally no longer falling off a cliff, but it has also been falling off a cliff. Now everything else is falling off a cliff, and App Lovin' is coming up. Lots of opportunity, I guess, in different places out there. But anyway, as you can see, the NASDAQ is now down nearly 4%, which is an insane level of a flush out. You have NVIDIA, which, you know, sits at somewhere on a 0.6 peg in valuation terms, which is now down 5.7%. AMD. AMD overvalued in the high 600s. Generally better valued at 520. Greater valuation down here. Look at this. We're about to be off the 200-day moving average. 200-day moving average right now sits at $415 on AMD. And AMD is almost there. Some of this driven by Qualcomm's miss yesterday. A little bit of a missy-dissy on Qualcomm. We got a support line at 153 for Qualcomm. Looks like we're kind of going full circle, getting back there. Looks like we might be getting a little bit of buying right here. Getting back up off of 666 with 665 our bottom. Let's see if we can start coming back up. This is pretty remarkable, huh? Look at this. Let's go. Yeah, look at that. I'll keep an eye on that. So then we've got Intuit. Look at what's green today. Very interesting. Intuit. Hated stock. And Applovin, which has also been a hated stock. These are your stocks that are up today. Let's see what else is up today. Eli Lilly. The healthcare escapism is also up today at 1.8%. I wonder if that means Moderna is up today, too. Lenar. Lenar up again. Apple up again. Even though Apple is joining the suckening. What else we got? Home Depot, TLT, Dominion. The volatility index is up. Yeah, no doubt. eBay, Walmart. A little bit of a consumer and flight to safety, huh? Berkshire Hathaway. Berk-ay. There we go. Berkshire Hathaway's up. Walmart's up. Let's try to paint a little bit of green over here. We've got Disney. Uh, where is it? I just saw it here. Disney's at 119. Very interesting. Disney's up, uh, about 10 bucks after those layoffs. Six flags up 18%. People are starting to buy the dip on, uh, this deadly stuff. Oh, too soon. This, uh, this one. Very interesting where, where people are going here. Uh, McDonald's, S-box. These don't move too much. Otherwise, everything's red. Other than some nominal greens here. Lots and lots of red. Bitcoin, 78. Holy moly. Yeah. So, some buy the dippage happening over on Six Flags. But outside of that, little room for safety here. Apple. Uh, you know, Apple oven, again, bouncing off the floor. Eli Lilly. I don't, I don't even think Moderna's in here. I think Moderna must be red, too, because I didn't see it. Yeah, here it is. I mean, Moderna, in fairness, is at 250. This has done really well. We bought this here. Like, we didn't buy it before this pop. We bought it after the momentum hit 200. Waited patiently for the momentum to fizzle. Picked it up at about 140. And, uh, and now it's 250. It's crazy. But, uh, yeah. That's pretty remarkable. Let's go take a look at, uh, oil and yields right here. Let's see what we got. So, we've got oils up about 266. Bonds, 486. Honestly, you know what, what this stock market sell-off does is it actually tightens financial conditions. And you know what that's going to be good for, right? The odds of getting one rate hike. Now, no guarantees. Calci doesn't agree. Calci doesn't agree. But I think if the market sells off going into this Fed meeting, you're not going to get another hike this year. Because this, uh, tightens financial conditions substantially, right? And as you tighten financial conditions, the Federal Reserve doesn't go in and add and tighten financial conditions even more. But their goal is to tighten financial conditions. All right. So, let's see what Sarah's saying.
[00:07:48] Speaker 6: Amid more evidence that we're not seeing layoffs across.
[00:07:53] Speaker 5: She's, she's also tripping over rewards. She's even having a hard time today. Somebody helped Sarah.
[00:07:57] Speaker 6: 99,000 last week. We are talking about the lowest numbers of jobless claims since 1969. The four-week moving average ticking down to the lowest number since 1969. So, let's see what the hiring data looks like tomorrow. We'll get the big jobs report. But not a lot of concern there when it comes to layoffs. It's the stair step down and it's been really, really strong. So, wanted to point out those two, I think, big, very good numbers on the economy today.
[00:08:28] Speaker 5: None of that's having anything to do with the NASDAQ. Yeah. I don't really care personally about when they talk about initial claims. I think initial claims are a little bit of a joke. And they're a substantially lagging indicator that don't really tell us anything.
[00:08:41] Speaker 6: That's part of it, right? The political headwinds running into what could be early signs that this is all working for our economy. Just more evidence, the challenge.
[00:08:51] Speaker 7: And I don't mean to, by the way, your point's an important one because it does go to the key point of a lot of this in terms of the spending, creating the efficiencies around productivity for the future, conceivably, that will be brought to bear by building more data centers and more compute.
[00:09:07] Speaker 6: It's kind of ironic that we're starting to see the gains at a time where the politicians might crack down.
[00:09:11] Speaker 7: We do have a significant reversal today in the NASDAQ after, obviously, what was a strong day yesterday.
[00:09:14] Speaker 6: Yeah. I mean, the people have spoken, right? This has been unpopular to build data centers and have this overbuild in people's areas. And so we have all these ballot propositions that passed suggesting either bans or temporary bans or more regulation or higher costs or less tax incentives. And all of that, you know, could mean ultimately fewer data centers. We're also starting to get, you know, or a slower pace of build or slower pace. Yes. Or maybe more in Canada, I don't know, or maybe more built in places that are Saudi Arabia was suggested yesterday, right, where they're welcoming.
[00:09:46] Speaker 5: Yeah, even Cerebris is talking about how they think a lot of what they're going to end up building out in chips next year as it comes online is going to move to foreign countries. And we're going to end up seeing that build out go somewhere else. Now, what I'd like to do is just pull up a few charts that we have here. And they give us a little bit of an idea of where things are moving. So one of them is Morgan Stanley's tech momentum factor. And this is basically where they're just looking at, you know, how is momentum on tech stocks relative to history. And what you can see right now is the correction in momentum is sitting down 62% from highs, which if I drag that line and try to keep it straight. That's roughly straight right there. You can actually see that momentum right now in tech is worse than the dot-com bubble. That's pretty remarkable. Worse. Oops. There we go. Worse than dot-com. That's crazy. So you've got this serious pain over here. And then if we jump on over here, because the other place you could really see this is if you look at RSP. RSP is basically at all-time highs, right? So broader stock market breadth actually doing quite well. This is the concentrated, heavily leveraged, you know, chip sector that's getting wrecked. You're, you're, you're flushing out the debt. Uh, debt. Let's see. Debt. Flush out. That's my take. All right. Oops. I do not want to do that. Just want to go take this. There we go. That looks a little better. All right. What do we have over here? So this is the risk appetite, Goldman's risk appetite tool. And Goldman's risk appetite tool suggests, let's see here. This tool suggests we were this low. That was Leo fold right here. So we're way worse than Leo fold. Leo fold right here. This is liberation. For risk appetite. That's when we got liberated. Liberation. And then this here is the Japanese carry trade. There we go. And then here, this is the Apple correlation to the NASDAQ. Apple to NASDAQ 100 correlation. NASDAQ suckening. Apple recently started sucking. Uh, but, uh, but, uh, but nominal relative to, uh, build out fears. Let's go take a peek at CDS's because yesterday CDS's didn't spike. Let me go to a Apple. Uh, and then we're going to look at CDS. So they're going to raise $7 billion, $7 billion raise for Apple, uh, smaller than others by far. Remember, meta is like $96 billion, right? So let's go to CDS on core weave on the five year. Let's see what those are looking like right now. Uh, uh, all right. So core weave CDS is still at, still at their high point of two weeks ago, but not higher. What about meta CDS's? Because I like to see that underlying movement. Still down. Meta's still down. Oracle CDS. Which suggests that some of these, this hedging is, has somewhat been completed. Yeah. Same for Oracle. You know, that's, it's very bizarre. So let's make a note of that. Apple, uh, or sorry, meta. Meta and, uh, Oracle CDS's stable. Uh, actually they're down, down from peak, uh, 10 days ago. Core weave stable. CDS's are not going up despite sell-off. Which is really interesting. Okay. So that sort of like implies that, you know, the suit's getting insurance. The suit, or the, the debt fear has stabilized. You know, so at least on the, on the bond market, the debt fear is stabilized. Okay. Okay. Let's go take a look again at the sticks over here. So this is Moderna. Six Flags here. Eli Lilly, Apple Lovin. These are your greens. You can see Nvidia, big puppy over here, down 6.6 now. Microsoft's even coming down with this as well. AMD, 13%. Wow. Look at the NASDAQ. 4% day on the NASDAQ. That's pretty aggressive. That is pretty aggressive. Okay. Let's go look at, well, A, we'll look at Al Jazeera. And B, I want to see what some of the suits are saying about this. Because this is quite dramatic. And sudden, too. It's a lot of people getting squeezed out of their indebted positions, huh? Okay. So. Uh-oh. What is this? This doesn't help. All right. The United, uh, here we go. The United States and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes, according to the New York Times. The U.S. is ready to resume major combat operations. Said the strikes would be short and intensive. Wow. It's likely that several bases in the region that were destroyed by Iran. It's unlikely that several U.S. bases in the region that were destroyed by Iran will be rebuilt. Oh, that's a great picture. That's very cool. Okay. Where, where is that Times piece?
[00:18:26] Speaker ?: Let's see.
[00:18:29] Speaker 5: NYT. G.O.P. collapse. Yeah. Where's the Iran piece? World. Middle East. No. That might be an older article. I don't think that's new. Which kind of matters. Yeah. Yeah. I don't see a new piece from the New York Times. So I don't know what Al Jazeera is referencing. Okay.
[00:19:11] Speaker ?: Okay.
[00:19:11] Speaker 5: And then here we have talk of, maybe that's why they didn't link it. Where's the foreign minister? Foreign minister has spoken with counterparts in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Two separate calls covered the latest regional developments and efforts to solve the war. Spoke to Imani counterpart on resuming traffic. I mean, that's, that just all sounds fine. Doesn't really sound like any kind of particular news though. So nothing's new here. First bond sale from Apple in over a year. We saw that. What's Hammock saying? Hammock says, interest rates need to be restrictive to bring inflation into the central base target. Yeah. But as the stock market sells off, you're actually increasing the financial restrictiveness. So financial conditions tighten as the stock market falls. This is something that is frequently forgotten. Where's my note on this? Here. Goldman Sachs financial conditions. So financial conditions have been tightening. And as the stock market falls, you'll actually see that tightening continue. And that, in my opinion, leads to a lower likelihood that you actually get rate hikes. Because the market's basically tightening financial conditions for you. So let's make a note of that, especially with what Hammock is saying here. Okay. So what we're going to do is we'll jot some notes over here. Okay. So we have financial conditions tighten, tighten substantially as the stock market falls. Greatest risk, by the way, greatest risk of stock market fall is companies lay off workers who don't get absorbed. That's how a stock market sell-off can turn ugly. That's how a stock market sell-off can turn ugly. But that takes time. That takes a lot of time, though. Usually six to 12 months. Right. This current bout, clearly in response to, you know, J.D. Vance blaming Iran war for election loss. Trump basically shrugging over that little sign that motivates Trump to make more of a deal. Unfortunately, no pressure to get it done now because election is over. You know, that's obviously bearish. Financial conditions, though. So let's talk about this because that's what the Fed's going to look at. Hammock. Hammock from the Federal Reserve at Fed. This is the Cleveland president. Said that restrictive rates are needed to cool inflation. She said, I expect monetary policy will need to move to a restrictive stance. Adding that she prefers making more frequent smaller adjustments when possible. The strategy would reduce the risk of having policy fall behind. Yeah, but remember, Warsh also talked about financial conditions. And that becomes important because financial conditions. Let me see what note he had about financial conditions. So financial conditions. Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed, Fed. Here we go. Here's the last Fed meeting we had. That was the dovish line. He said, financial conditions have tightened for businesses and households. Market participants are getting more discerning. That's a very dovish line. Remember this from Warsh. So this is Warsh's last commentary. Okay. This suggests, you know, into a bear market. Fed, IMO, unlikely to hike into a bear market. Okay. Let's jot that in. Let's go see. We've now got, okay, some potential stabilization at 6.62, down four and a quarter on the queues right now. You've got, uh, semiconductors are near the most crowded sector based on a hype score, leaving them particularly vulnerable. Sox index had another lamentable day yesterday after a big blue sweep. Sox is down 30% from its highs. Markets reverse midterm, euphoria. Yes, yes, yes. That was the, yesterday morning. So the idea is that you've got substantial crowding at basically just semis, which is your, essentially your NASDAQ. So we're going to make the note here that the doomers, uh, suggest semis are the most crowded trade. And if we go take a look over here, where is my, take a look at this. I thought this was very interesting. AI data center spending is scaling faster than we expected. Higher hardware content, broader mix of operators, pushing more capital towards compute, memory, storage, networking, updated our analysis to include 119 gigawatts of global data center capacity. I mean, this is like, at the same time as there's fear about the AI trade, the actual underlying AI momentum continues its build out. So this is a very interesting divergence. So, okay, labor force productivity numbers just came in. Let's take a look at these. Yeah, then we got some talk about the yield curve, which we should also look at the yield curve. Let's actually go take a peek at that really quickly. 10.2 yield curve. No, it's pretty stable, actually, the yield curve. Pretty stable, 0.31 right now. So, U.S. labor productivity accelerated in the third quarter at the fastest pace in a year. I mean, that's great. I mean, the queues are going down at the fastest pace in a year. They would argue that's true. So, it says, U.S. labor productivity accelerated in the third quarter at the fastest pace in a year, suggesting the capital spending boom is translating into greater efficiency at a time when input costs have soared. Productivity or non-farm business output per hour increased at a 3.6% annualized rate. Revised 2.1 pace in a prior quarter. That doesn't surprise me with how good some of the AI tools have really gotten starting, frankly, in about July. And that's where that measurement would really pick up. Let's make a note of that. So, this is labor productivity. Q3 up fastest pace in a year at 3.6% annualized versus 2.1% last quarter. IMO, as Jensen says, AI just started getting good. AI getting good around April to July would align with this productivity boost. I agree with that. We see that, too. That's pretty remarkable. Okay, productivity or non-farm business output per hour increased at 3.6%. Unit labor costs fell 0.7%. That's also a double-edged sword. Unit labor costs down 0.7%. To me, that's a sign of weakening worker pricing power. So, pricing power for workers is really important. Worker pricing power goes directly into consumption. You know, weaker negotiation ability makes you more prone to inflation. Weaker ability to negotiate pay hikes equals lower ability to absorb inflation impacts. So, that's less ideal. It's good for businesses, though, right? Good for businesses. Bad for underlying employees. Okay. So, then we've got... Dan Williams says, Kevin warned yesterday of volatility after elections. Then it eases out. Yeah, I maintain that. This... You know, people have to digest this shellacking that happened. I'm going to call it the digestion phase. It's sort of like, you know, the economy just had to swallow a shock of an election. That takes digesting. You know, there's a lot of shock, especially amongst Republican communities or older communities, which often have more exposure to stocks. Wow, look at that. We're almost down 5% of queues. I can't remember the last time I've seen the queues down 5%. That's incredible. So, after the October meeting, the Federal Reserve described productivity growth as strong. True. Quarterly productivity remains volatile. But the rebound after a relative slump in recent quarters shows strong... The strong story remains intact. We'll see about that. Maybe AI is contributing to this at the margin. Yes. Initial applications for unemployment were at the lowest level since 1969. Wow. I mean, I think initial claims are generally a really bad stat. But, we'll write it down. Initial claims at a 1969 low. So, the layoff cycle hasn't begun. A crashed stock market could begin the layoff cycle. In fairness. You know, that is something to consider. Layoff cycle is poopy-doopy for... Or, a bad stock market is not good for labor.
[00:31:48] Speaker ?: Okay.
[00:31:49] Speaker 5: So, that's labor productivity. Now, semiconductors are also, according to Simon White, an analyst here, the most exposed to a flattening yield curve driven by tightening liquidity conditions. Right. Well, we have seen liquidity dry up for these, you know, data centers. This is a sign that liquidity has really started to decelerate its availability for the data center build out. So, you know, one way to look at that is, I've got a note here on, let me see here. I'm pretty sure I've got this note on Meta and how much we're looking at for a premium for hiking. Let me see here. Meta, those were financial conditions. Oracle. These were Oracle notes. Meta. Here. This is what we've seen with Meta. So, here we've got this indication that Meta has had to price their 30-year debt about 0.9 points wider than their April bonds. That's a lot. Because 0.9, that's 90 basis points. So, it's getting more expensive to raise because that money is becoming less available. Well, let's see here. Excess liquidity is now sitting. We're not quite at the lows for excess liquidity, but we are quite low. I will show a chart of that in just a moment. And semiconductors are most exposed, which makes sense because they need to raise so much money. So, semiconductors being most exposed to the liquidity pain is not a surprise. Semiconductors, very cyclical sector, of course. Semiconductors are still the most hyped sector. You know what the least hyped is right now? Real estate. Okay, let me grab those charts because those charts are quite neat and they give us a little bit of an explanation because people in hype sectors, they get in because, you know, stocks are going up and, oh, you just can't lose money and everybody's making money and blah, blah, blah, blah. That's the worst time to get in. You got to buy the dip when people start getting nervous. People have been nervous the last few months. All right. So, take a look at some of these. So, this right here shows you liquidity. Not quite at the bottoms yet, but does show you those are 2022 lows. Let me get the actual dates here. Okay, so, that puts us around 20, this is about carry trade right here, roughly. Okay. So, liquidity is not quite as bad as this level, but it's, you know, it's rivaling some of the worst. The worst liquidity we've seen. We're sort of at the bottom here for liquidity. Liquidity, similar to Japanese carry trade times. And before that, you could argue bond market crisis of 2018. Yeah, more like 2019. And 2019 fears. Then, and that's excess liquidity nine months forward. Here's your sensitivity. And you can see semis are most sensitive and semis are also most hyped. So, you've got the perfect storm. Perfect storm. You have most hyped sector equals semiconductors. And the most sensitive to liquidity issues equals semiconductors. That's a perfect storm. The least hyped right now is real estate. Real estate. $2 trillion in spending and hiring in healthcare. $10 donation here. Main thing, holding up the labor market. Oh, you think the cuts from, like, the big, beautiful bill will affect it in 2028. Yeah, maybe. It'll be something to look into unless Democrats reverse some of that, which there's been the idea that they might. So, this is quite interesting. Because this then puts together some color of how you're getting this convergence. And in hype sectors, you generally have, oh, where are they? There was this weenie that I tweeted about yesterday. Here. Okay. This guy posted yesterday that he's hitting my circuit breakers. And he's cleared his account of shares. My breaker is the moment at which my account can cover capital gains plus taxes to pay off my house. That's the line in the sand. So, basically, debt has encouraged this person to weenie baby out. And that's your marginal buyer, typically, sadly, during the hype times. During hype, your marginal buyer is someone, like, grumpier by the day on X. Debt makes them fearful. And that's, they buy when the market is rising. Fearful and dump in the pain. When valuations are cheapest. Lowest. So, this is, let me grab this. Okay. Okay. And then let's go look at what the journal is talking about regarding this as well. But this gives us some color. Because when we now combine most hyped with most sensitive to the Democrat potential rejection or slowdown, right, of building. That's, what we can actually look up is Hina Hina Hosa. Let's go see what she's got for data centers. Give us some color on maybe her initial commentary. Okay. Here we go. So, per plans for Texas, answer some questions about Texas. Now, when was this? This was November 4th in the morning. So, this was right before the election. This is what she planned. She wants to send a $1,500 stimulus check. Good Lord. Her plan would use money from the Rainy Day Fund. Wow. My plan is to send money back to the people. $1,500 as a refund. Okay. Data centers. End the tax breaks. Ending the tax breaks isn't that big of a deal. Voted for 3104, which would have expanded tax exemptions for data centers, but the project failed. Now, she wants a moratorium. Yeah, because it's popular. It's popular to say you want to stop them building, but then, again, they'll end up in Louisiana or they'll end up in a different state. She reconciles that by talking about unions. Now, she wants change. We're all paying for data centers here. These hyperscale data centers are having hyperscale impacts on our communities. Okay, so what's her plan? Now, she wants an immediate moratorium on new data centers and the tax giveaways. See, I—but I want to hear what her commentary is after the election. Yeah. Ask directly whether she would repeal the program. This is the school voucher program. Okay, so we'll see. Let's go in over here. Oh, my gosh. What is all this nonsense? Subscribe to keep reading. Well, then I'm not going to read it, Houston Chronicle. There we go. Oh, okay. You're going to pull that nonsense on me. Fine, then. We won't read. Let's go to Politico. Yeah, a race is starting to crash into Democrats' plan to reign in data centers. Democrats seized control of governor's offices in Texas, Ohio, Georgia. It was a shellacking. It was pretty bad. Let's go over all data centers. Okay. By promising to place more moratorium at the heart of the tech boom, the argument is that this is maybe how they contributed to winning, basically. Upending the race to develop AI. 41% of the country's planned data centers are in states with existing or proposed moratoria. CleanView, a company that tracks the industry, says. So, okay. Her original concerns or claims were go for a moratorium as soon as possible. I wonder if we can see. Let's see if there are any comments that she's made on X since the election, right? Let's see.
[00:42:59] Speaker 8: By oil field workers and truck drivers. By small business owners who put everything they had on the line. Who should come first in the state they built. No one. This is our Texas. This is our government. And this is our one fight.
[00:43:22] Speaker 5: All right. So, nothing really about L data centers. And no, she has not tweeted a lot at all. This was just sort of, these were little highlight reels really from her campaign. All right. Well, that's no fun. It'd be nice to actually get some updates on what's cooking with the latest on the data centers. Or Iran, frankly. But, you know, you're not seeing much on the way of updates over here. Okay. Let's try the info and the journal. Let's see what's cooking over here. All right. CalShare is spinning up new markets, big investors, Palo Alto networks, AI safety bill to lawmakers. That's California. This is interesting. This Microsoft piece as well. We'll look at this Microsoft piece. But Sequoia moving to focus on Silicon Valley. Interesting. Closing London office to go to Silicon Valley. They're coming back to California. All right. So what do we have here? So here we have Microsoft said last week it spent $5 billion less on CapEx in the third quarter than it had previously projected. Because data centers were not ready on time. So much enthusiasm to actually get these data centers built. But it's taking longer to get them up. Third party delays. Let's see here. Fitch did issue a note today. Oh, here's another note. Let's write this down. I like writing down all these notes because they give us a little bit of a summary of the pain that's going on here. So Fitch just put out a note. And Fitch says, let's see here. New state moratoriums and power restraints may further delay data centers. Morgan Stanley said, let's see here. It'll ultimately come down to state legislatures. So the issue with that is that takes time. All right. So we get most of these people take office in January. Of these new governors and legislatures, if not all, take office in January. Okay. So that means the earliest you're generally going to see actually bills pass is probably March to April. March to April is your timeframe for legislation and color on delays, moratorium. So what you have right now, now you just have fear. The Microsoft issue. You know, Microsoft was twofold. You have, they delayed expanding N-scale Texas data center, not adding 700 megawatts beyond 240 megawatt. Now. Let me see what the note was on that. The note for that, which is applicable to exactly what's going on today. And it's in addition to the pain that we're, we're just reading about on the info. Uh, let's see this. And scale, let's see. Microsoft's decision came before their S1. Fervor around data centers has cooled following market concerns over the heavy debt involved. Yeah. As well as, uh, Gina. Let's see here. Ionic Digital told companies provisional approvals for Ward County site. It sounds like, uh, it sounds like Microsoft is trying to, to play it safe with their expansion, right? They don't want to get bogged down in all this nonsense. And I think that's what you're seeing. Where was it? Here. One of them is IREN. Five billion less than, uh, less than, uh, expected. Previous deal with N scale delayed. Data center delays can cause large swings in payments and revenues. Yes. Microsoft announced that it planned to spend 9.7 billion over five years to rent servers at the data center that IREN was developing. But IREN has since faced delays. So usually what happens is they face delays in these local areas because of local permitting. It generally comes down to local permitting. Let's see if there's a note on this particular site that'll give us color. Delays. Data center. What's causing the delays? I'd like to see. Let's just, let's see here. What's causing the delays? Your mom. Oh, let's see. Okay. Primarily driven by a mix of engineering hurdles, technical miscommunications, and a broader regulatory shift. Okay. So according to investor reports of sector analysis, primary bottleneck stems from internal friction and shifting requirements for Microsoft. Communication gaps between Microsoft's AI research platform and its infrastructure teams allegedly led to inadequate network specifications. Then they wanted to overhaul the network topology across the data halls, forcing a recabling. Oh, now that's very interesting. If that's true. Let me see here. Oh, this is from a Yahoo Finance video. Independent tracking has flagged physical component restraints. Satellite analysis from Aterio revealed that Horizon 4 building was missing cooling equipment. High performance generators. So we have a combination of issues here. So it sounds like cabling requirement changes, lack of equipment, lack of cooling equipment. Those are all contributing or happening at the same time. Rewiring. So really what's happening is the data center build out isn't slowing. It's just the requirements are shifting. Plus Abbott's permit slowdown. And the data center connection cues up 90% plus politics. So it's kind of, it really is this perfect storm. That's a very interesting note. So we'll make this as, we'll just sort of note this as a continued perfect storm over here. Yeah, that makes sense. So it's more than just, you know, it's not like Microsoft is wanting to spend less. Microsoft is actively indicating they want to spend more. In fact, we can go look at that. Let me see here if I can pull that quickly. So they have their earnings release on the 28th. Let's pull their call. Because that'll give us some color. Since Microsoft is in the news for this, that'll give us a lot of color on what's cooking up with Microsoft. Let's also take a peek in the meantime at how we're holding up here. We're not. Holy smokes, dude. 5.5% on the cues. That's insane. That's a huge day. Okay. Let's go to Microsoft earnings call. Yeah, Microsoft's down 3% today today as well. NVIDIA is down 7.8% right now. Wow. Let's go grab Microsoft. So this should show us a little bit on appetite, which I think would be useful. Because that's, you know, there's so much fear that, oh, that's it. It's over. Microsoft doesn't want to spend anymore. And I think that is not true, but I'd like to see. But that's, that is quite aggressive. So let's go take a look at this. So this is, uh, let's look at the word delay. Okay. Here we go. Um, capital expenditures were $45 billion as some third-party capacity deliveries were delayed. This is their Q1 call in Q1. Three quarters of CapEx was for GPUs and CPUs. Let's see. Let's see. Remaining long-lived assets. Blah, blah, blah. Returning money to shareholders. Fine. Azure revenue was ahead of expectations despite third-party capacity delays noted earlier. Foundry revenue more than tripled, allowing us to allocate our GPU fleet to customers. Higher revenue per token. I don't know how they're getting higher revenue per token. That's actually very impressive. Because token revenue seems to be declining. Let's see here. GPU service contracts. Delayed. So that's delayed. We've got over here, CapEx. In Q2, CapEx will be over $50 billion. In the second half of the year, we expect CapEx to accelerate. See, Microsoft isn't slowing down. They're actually expecting acceleration. So you're seeing delays. It's not like the boom is over, right? They're not saying boom dead, AI dead. They're saying we want to do more, but we're getting build-out delays. That's consistent with the rumor that Microsoft is recabling or changing spec requirements for data centers because likely the shift to AI, well, basically persistent AI agentic compute. Which is actually increasing labor force productivity. Increasing labor productivity. Fascinating. So, that's an interesting note to watch. Okay. So that's all on delays. Yeah. So, this is consistent with more spend, not less spend. Now, if I go here, the Qs are about to be down 6%. This is remarkable. Now, look at that. NVIDIA is getting destroyed. Down 8% here. Pton, which had good earnings this morning, is down 9 basis. Everything's right. Bitcoin's back at. What's Bitcoin back at? 76. Wow. How's Meta doing? Is Apple still up? Even Apple just turned negative. Oh, Apple's down 7% too. Oh, my goodness. Or, sorry. Yeah, Meta is down 7%, not Apple. That is, whew.
[00:56:20] Speaker 4: That is a, it is a Black Friday. This is not the kind of Black Friday I was thinking we were leading into. Holy smokes.
[00:56:29] Speaker 5: So, let's go. Do we have any Al Jazea updates? Chiefs meeting in the Russian capital again. They did that last week as well. So, we're really seeing no progress is the problem. Even though you had this sort of, you know, this Vance tweet here. You, you really have this blaming on the war that Donald Trump agrees with, yet now there's no pressure to end the war. They had their opportunity to figure this out earlier, and they screwed it up, boys and girls. They screwed it up. And so, because they sandbagged Iran, now, you have all these fears. Here. I know what we ought to do. We ought to try to explain this a little bit. Let's, let's grab a little, uh, a little whiteboard breakdown here. I gotta clean the darn whiteboard first. I didn't clean it last night. Ah, all right. So, Microsoft, and really the broader artificial intelligence sack, all of them are spending more. Uh, that's what we're seeing. But what, if we want to look at more of a bear piece while my whiteboard's dry here for a sec, usually you could go to Zero Hedge and get yourself a really delicious bear piece. They're typically pretty good at bearing. Uh, let's see here. Sponsored. Uh, talking about, oh, they're talking about Epstein again. Okay. Maybe not. Let's, let's go to, let's forget Zero Hedge. Let's go to Bloomberg. So, let's look at their notes. And here's the Microsoft talk about N-Scale. Microsoft sours on NeoClouds. So, let's look at that. That's exactly what we've just been looking at. As well as, um, you know, we had the Qualcomm earnings yesterday. Let's just look at their overall notes here. So, investors bailed from the sector on speculation that Democrats will, uh, sweeping in Congress will usher in a new era of regulation for the artificial intelligence industry. The 9% plunge in the gauge of the chip sector put the group on track for its worst week since the tariff meltdown. Holy moly. Okay. So, what I wanted to draw here, if I can borrow your time to let me draw this for a second. I think this is a good explanation. All right. So, basically what's happening is you have companies like Microsoft. Let's say, uh, we want to spend more. Okay. That's number one. But, now we want, uh, persistent AI agents. So, three. Change. Specs. Okay. All that's good. All that's fine. But then, people here, delay. Okay. This started with, like, Oracle and the gas pipeline, right? Delays. Okay. Uh, Oracle. Gas pipeline. The MSFT, IREN news, whatever. You get it across the board. Then, you get credit default swaps that go up. Then, liquidity down. Then, you get the blue wave. And, the, uh, moratoria. Uh, and then, you get stocks, levered, cooked. Perfect storm. All on one beautiful little whiteboard here. It's actually a pretty big whiteboard. Okay. All right. So, that means we should do an update on credit default swaps. Uh, did we, did we hit bottom yet here? Holy smokes. It's just been straight down. Oh, my gosh, dude. We went to my 650 line. We didn't even bother at 675. We laughed at the 675 line. All right. Let's go see here. So, credit default swaps. Let's get an update on that. Now, we did just look at them moments ago. But, we're going to look again right now. Just to see if it's updated. Korean blowing the SH9T. No. Credit default swaps are stable. Let me go back over five years. Um. No. I mean, they're just not worsening. So, this is, I'll go show these here. I'll pull them up for us. I'll do Oracle, Meta, CDS. What do you buy right now? Well, with this market sell-off, you buy the odds that the Fed is not hiking in December. By going to the Calci betting market, and you make a bet that the Fed will only hike one time. So, you type in number of rate hikes this year, and you make that bet. Calci's a sponsor of the channel. Use code MEETKEVIN when you sign up. You get 25 bucks on your first trade. Okay. I wasn't planning on actually pulling up the numbers, but now I'm pulling up the numbers. So, we have them. Okay. So, take a look here. Let's drop them right in. This is, these are liberation level sell-offs.
[01:03:51] Speaker ?: Okay.
[01:03:52] Speaker 5: So, we have CoreWeave, Meta, Oracle. Okay, below. Below are CoreWeave. No. That's Oracle, CoreWeave, Meta, CDS's on 5-year. You can see the stability, despite, you know, the madness that's going on. These guys aren't moving. So, you can see that. I'll zoom in on those right here. Here, this is Meta, which has come down in risk. CoreWeave is still stable. And then here's Oracle, which is pretty surprising. What's, um, what's HUD at? Yeah, let me see here. I see somebody commenting on HUD. Ooh, it's almost at my $69 target. Juicy, juicy. Wow. Okay. Let's go, let me take a look at what else the suits are saying right now. Because this is pretty brutal. So, let's see. Over the past several weeks. Let's see. Some concerns about, uh, I told you, okay, what do we have here? Uh, let's see here. Hey, hi, adjacent names. Interesting. Also, not easy. No, that's not very useful. Broad sell-off comes with a defensive rotation. Ish. I don't know that you can call it as much of a rotation. Okay, here we go. Intraday chip decline is quite profound. The single-day decline in the socks is rare. Accentulation on Thursday. The Broadcom fallout in June and Liberation Day tantrum. Okay. That's when we've last seen the socks move this bad. Yeah, this is the worst. Okay, so let's write that down. This is the worst move in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Uh, since Leo Fold. And Liberation. Uh, I'll actually just drop that off the top. Here we go. Worst move in socks since Leo Fold and Liberation. Uh, pure capitulation has hit. Okay. Thanks, Obama. High volume sell-off. Uh, let's see here. What else? What else? What else? Okay. Let's take a peek at some other coverage. This was the Neo Cloud here. Microsoft helped create the Neo Cloud boom. Signing tens of billions of dollars in contracts. Okay. Okay. Uh, even AppLovin's having trouble holding onto its 30% right now. It's now down at, it's now dropping into the 21 range, or 29 range. Okay. Tens of billions of contracts with upstart data center operators with crushing appetite. As Neo Cloud companies grapple with delays, regulatory snags, and high costs, some Microsoft leaders have developed a case of buyer's remorse. Well, that's not ideal. So, this is one of the tough things, by the way, about, you know, these are more than just buying the chips. Running a data center is much harder than just buying NVIDIA's chips. Okay. Let's make a note of that. Company is tight. Okay, let's get rid of that. There we go. The company is tightening oversight. Okay, let me watch the queues here on the left. Q, Q, Q. Even RSP's down today. Wow. 5.6 on the queues. That's, that's an aggressive day. Uh, the company is tightening oversight of some of its data center projects, stepping away from ones that deems risky, and debating internally whether to ink new NeoCloud deals, according to people familiar with the matter. Okay. Friction was on display during the recent earnings call that delay of some third-party capacity was disrupting their spending plans. Right, so they want to keep spending, but they can't. Some of the recent hiccup involves issues with cabling at a site being developed by IREN. Fiber optics. They suffered a generator fire at a campus in April. Disclosed hardware delivery delays in August. Right. So, basically, these smaller guys are just less capable of actually getting that infrastructure out. So, Microsoft wants to spend the money, but they can't. At the same time, their ability to finance their survival is at risk. This is how some of these little guys go bankrupt, as Elon, you know, happened to call. But the benefit is, Elon will be able to swoop in and buy these sort of companies. Yeah, this is how the bankruptcies start in the little guys. It doesn't even matter what the reason is. Microsoft providing for the likes of CoreWeave and Scale massive contracts. Let them get big quickly. Even though Microsoft has a huge fleet of data centers, it was willing to pay up to meet demand. It couldn't handle on its own. We've had to pinch our nose and borrow GPUs from some of our competitors. Done that because we have a very strong demand signal. Microsoft pledges. Hundreds and billions, hundreds of billions of data centers. These are their commitments, right? So, their commitments are literally going to the moon. I mean, we have seen commitments skyrocket recently. Let me see Meta's commitments. I'm pretty sure Meta's commitments have skyrocketed, too. But I have a note on this. Meta. Let me see here. So, my Meta note, where was it? It was, I want to say it was two days ago. For, we do so many notes. All right, should be within this. Meta, Meta, Meta, Meta, Meta commitments. That was their pricing for their bond. That's their watermelon. There we go. Here we go. Big tech has $4.01 trillion of AI commitments. Look at this increase in commitments right here. This is insane. So, the commitments to AI spend have not stopped. The commitments have not stopped. So, basically, companies are committing more spend. But, the roadblock isn't the AI boom ending. It's speed to build, component shortages, blue wave fears, power, etc. Because, if we take this, this is pretty remarkable. I mean, this, just, we should really chart that out. But, going from $1.8 trillion in spend in June to now $4.11 is insane. More than 250 U.S. data center projects are delayed. That's a lot. That's a great stat, too. So, let's move that up over here into today's topic. You've got Morgan Stanley. Let's see here. That's on power, power pricing, off-balance sheet commitments. Amazon's purchase orders have doubled since August. That's crazy. They're all blowing more money on this. So, this is not the boom is over. This is the boom is here. It's just going a little slower. SpaceX. We know they're raising, they're going to raise a trillion dollars. If they can. You know, Meta actually, remember how Meta was nervous. That it would actually get harder to raise money. They were right. Like, let's go grab Meta's 8K on this. I mean, this is actually a pretty incredible read. If you go... Wow, we're almost down 6% on the queues. This is insane, dude. Do we hit a floor yet? Ah, we're hanging out on that little gray line right now. What, are so many people loading Meta Investor Relations? Can't get it out? I need the... Was it in their earnings call or their 10Q? It might have been in their earnings call. Marketable Securities. Marketable Securities. Market. Workflow. Anyway, wherever it was, I remember them talking about how, hey, like, we need to raise money sooner rather than later. Because it's about to get harder to raise money. It might have been this. Let's see here. Meta's expanding its infrastructure commitments. Meta expects. 135 to 145 billion of CapEx. 2026. Family of apps. Business momentum. Details of the offer. Okay, Meta expects to go to... This was their announcement that they were going to offer preferred. See, mandatory convertible preferreds. That's what Barron said was likely to happen. That they would end up doing this. So they probably had a leak, honestly. But that makes a lot of sense. The mandatory preferreds are great because they give you a yield during the pain. But they give you the stock upside, too. So anytime you hear mandatory convertible preferred stock, I generally think of that as a good tool for fundraising. There we go. We are now creating a bottom. Look at that. You got a little bit of a double bounce going on right here. What is coffee doing? Little bit of recovery. Hopefully that holds on the queues. Let's go see if we ended up getting... Yeah, we're almost... Actually, yeah, almost at circuit breaker level, honestly. I think that would be like 7%. Bonds. Oh, wow. Bonds tanked. Well, yields tanked. Yields are down. Oil's up. So that should indicate our... A reduction in yield expectations. All right. Let's see what we have here. So this is... You've got... Oh, wow. Fewer than two right now. Yield expectations are plummeting for the Fed to hike. Yeah, because financial conditions are tightening. Wow. Wow. All right. So let's try to put all of this together. Because this is a lot. So we're going to keep the yields up. Let's now cover... This insanity. So let's just drop this. We'll keep this for yields over here. Okay. Still somewhat creating that little bottom, which is nice. Ideally, we could keep holding that bottom. I mean, look at the pain here. Microsoft, Microsoft, in fairness, only down 3%, which is, you know, not that big of a day. Meta's 5%, but hood's 11%. These are some big numbers. Wow. Tesla, 10% day on Tesla. SpaceX lost 132. Holy moly. SpaceX now down 8.6%. Home Depot turned negative. Opendoor gave up its rally yesterday on housing, down 12%. Dave & Buster's down 8%. Supermicro's down 10%. Dell's down 12%. Holy moly.
[01:18:05] Speaker ?: All right.
[01:18:07] Speaker 5: So let's break down all the insanity that's going on here. As we are somewhat bottoming here, I mean, I don't want to say it too soon, you know? All right. So we looked at this. We looked at this. Looked at this. We're just going to close a few things here, and then we're going to do a little summary on on my take on all of this. Oh, yeah. And our stimulus. Oh, that was her stimulus check. That's all right. We don't need that. These are some of the notes we'll look at. Nothing over here on the Mideast, which is important as well. Trump cop between two realities. Qatar mediations offer him a way out, but Iranian leadership is gambling with his electoral weakness that'll end up forcing Washington to concede more. Right. That's why making a deal beforehand would have been better. That's actually bad. That was the war note. This we've got. Oh, wow. Yeah, look at this. This is the one I've been talking about. The odds of exactly one hike. This literally on my stream went from 21% to 33%. So, like, if you bought that one, I said buy it. It would have moved quite a bit since then. Okay, that's the yield curve, which honestly doesn't matter so much right now. That's your scary people. Okay. All right. So, let's go through some of this, and then we'll look at some of these charts as they come up.
[01:19:51] Speaker 2: All right.
[01:19:52] Speaker 5: A lot to cover. Let's see. Let's see. Let's see. Let's see. Let's see. Oh, yeah. And then I do want to pull up one thing. Let's see here. There's a – hold on. Let's just briefly listen to them for a quick moment.
[01:20:12] Speaker 9: We found it pretty swiftly.
[01:20:14] Speaker 10: Right. I mean, I think the way I look at it is, again, the market thought that it could just check off the boxes and have a scripted comeback, which was NASDAQ 100 hits the 200-day for a day or two, doesn't really break it, and then we rallied, you know, yesterday, and it wasn't enough. You didn't have follow-on buyers. S&P 500, the futures clicked 7,500 overnight on election night and then rallied hard. So, I do think that it's sort of like when it works, it works, and when it doesn't, you have to have a little more of a give-up trade, and you have to, you know, redefine how extreme things have to go to get to capitulation. The remarkable thing, and everyone's trotting out the extremes of how weak semis have been for how many months and all the rest of it. They're still up 30% year-to-date. I mean, as a group, it's up 20%, 30% year-to-date. So, it's all a measure of how wild things got in the first half of the year that we've had all this dismantling of the trade, and still, if you own them coming into the year, you're still, you know, in the green.
[01:21:16] Speaker 9: Yes, which we could say about Caterpillar for a while, but no longer has Cats Red for the year. Mike, I imagine we're going to talk a lot more. We'll see you in a bit, Mike Santoli, this morning. Meantime, Sherry's at GE Aerospace are down today, getting caught up in the sell-off. Our Morgan Brennan joins us now from Kennedy Space Center with the CEO of GE Aerospace. Morning, MB.
[01:21:36] Speaker 5: Yeah, we don't care.
[01:21:38] Speaker 6: Hey, Carl, that's right. So, joining me now is Larry Cole.
[01:21:40] Speaker 5: All righty, all righty, all righty, all righty, all righty. Let's break all this insanity down, boys and girls. There is a lot to talk about. All right, let's try to understand it all. What the heck is going on?
[01:22:00] Speaker 4: This is the worst move in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index since Leo Fold got his butt liquidated and since all of America got liberated. We have not seen capitulation until today. Holy moly. Now, knock on wood that maybe the bottom is in on the day, but boy, oh boy, I don't want to say the bottom's in.
[01:22:25] Speaker 5: Look at that. We're down 5% on the NASDAQ. This is a multi-standard deviation hit to what is normal. This is not a normal move. We got down to 6% on the NASDAQ 100, which is almost circuit breaker level. We almost hit circuit breakers that we have not hit since COVID. This is insane. Dell's down 11%. Tesla's down about 10%. SpaceX is down 8%. Robinhood's down 10%. There is pain across the board. And it's too brute. Apple has joined the suckening. I kid you not. Apple has also joined the suckening. Their first bond raise in over a year. Apple realizing the writing is on the wall that, uh-oh, it's getting a little tighter to raise money, which is exactly what Meadow warned two weeks ago when they said, boys and girls, we need to raise money.
[01:23:24] Speaker 4: A-S-A frickin' P. The wall is closing in on us. We need to raise $96 billion. Apple's now, you know what?
[01:23:32] Speaker 5: We will also join Apple joining today, the suckening, raising $7 billion, their first in over a year. I'm not exactly sure why. I don't know. Maybe they could raise $7 billion to fix Siri, which has somehow gotten even worse. It seems like every time they have a WWDC and they're like, guys, you can now get Siri with AI, it actually just gets worse. But what's also getting worse are financial conditions. And this is going to have a big impact on the Federal Reserve, which is pretty important. So when we think about financial conditions, you have to think about what yields are, a combination of what liquidity is doing, which, you know, that's certainly tightening down, and what the stock market is doing. People regularly forget that the stock market is a component in financial conditions. And so when the stock market goes down, financial conditions actually tighten. Financial conditions are exactly what the Federal Reserve tries to fight. For example, in the last meeting, when the Federal Reserve decided to hold, Kevin Walsh said, quote, financial conditions have tightened for some businesses and households as market participants are getting more discerning. Financial conditions matter. Because as they tighten down, we ultimately get a Federal Reserve that says, hey, maybe we don't actually have to tighten as much. And that's exactly what we're seeing in the futures markets right now. We only now have a 70% chance of a hike in December based on the current pricing and pricing for how many rate cuts we're going to get by September of next year has actually fallen even more. We are now at 1.98 potential rate hikes for next year by September 15th. That's down from about 2.4 yesterday. So we've really come down. So financial conditions are tightening, which lower the chance that the Federal Reserve will hike more, which is good because as stock markets go down, people get nervous. But the flush out is pretty extreme. And these are some charts that we could look at. Morgan Stanley's technology media and, well, and the telecom factor is about 60% below its 12-month high. We are now seeing lower momentum in technology than we have seen since the dot-com bubble. Holy smokes. That's insane. At the same time as you have the RSP, which is the equal weight S&P 500 at essentially all-time highs, although it is slightly red today, the broader stock market breadth is doing decently. You know, you've got Disney up at, like, 118. It's actually climbing. You've got stocks like Peloton and Loan Depot coming off their bottoms. You've got Dave & Buster's and Red Robin coming off of their bottoms. You've got Walmart back to the 130s. So you've got some of these consumer stocks coming back. You've got AppLovin', which is a stock we own, up 30% today. We've been seeing this as a cheap value deal. Advertising, I think, is one of the big next frontiers. I keep saying it. I've said it up for a while. But anyway, what matters here? What matters here is that we have not seen this level of despair in technology momentum since the dot-com bubble burst. The dot-com bubble bursting didn't even get this low. Momentum was down 55%. We're down 62%. And guess what, folks? This chart was created before today. In other words, momentum is going to be even lower, which is wild to think about, how extreme this momentum is getting. Now, the good news is you could play the betting markets with this. Not that you necessarily want to, but we've been talking about this one for a while. If the stock market sells off, I do not think the Fed is going to hike again in December. So I placed a bet that the Fed is going to hike exactly one time. If you go to CalShea, you could type in, hey, number of rate hikes this year. You could play along with this if you want. It's a prediction market. It's got about $400,000 in volume. It's not, you know, one of the most popular ones. But it's one that I like playing because I watch it with the Fed. And so if you want to join that one, too, remember, you could use our sponsor, CalShea. Go to calshea.com slash r slash meetkevin. And you get $25 when you sign up for CalShea and make your first trade. But remember this. As financial conditions tighten, it does mean that either bond yields are going up, which is not happening, or stocks are falling. And right now, we're getting the stock falling side of this. Now, the underlying economy is doing fine. The underlying economy, broadly, that is. We know there are segments of the economy that aren't doing well. But ADP at $86,000 yesterday for the month. $86,000 the month before that, even though it was a slight negative revision of $4K, we still beat by $19K. ISM and PMIs are booming. Data center spend is skyrocketing. This is not a sign of the AI bubble is over. This is a sign of a digestion phase and volatility after the election, which we said, there's got to be volatility after the election. Did we think we were going to have a negative 6% day on the NASDAQ? In fairness, no. That's pretty crazy. Although, you know, it might recover. Look at some of these other charts. Risk appetite right now is lower than where we were on the Leo fold time frame. Now, we're not quite as low as we were during Liberation or the JPY carry trade. But risk appetite is really risk off right now. And then if you take a look over here, look at Apple's correlation to the NASDAQ. We have never in the history of Apple seen this low of a correlation to the NASDAQ 100 technology index. Apple to the NASDAQ, even though Apple is now joining the suckening, has going all the way back to the 1980s, never been this bad. Which is pretty wild. So why is this happening? Because it seems like spending is actually doing really well, right? Yeah, it actually is. And let's consider some of the tech spending numbers for a moment. Because when you actually see these visually, you can see that this AI boom isn't over. If anything, spending is honestly just getting started. Jensen told us, and I think he's right, that AI has just gotten useful within the last six months. Which does sort of beg the question of, like, why was it so euphoric before, right? 23, 24, 25, it wasn't that good. Now it's actually getting useful. And so what's happening with spending? We've touched on this before, but it's really important to look at this visually, okay? We're at, if we draw a little chart over here, and we call this June. June, we were at $1.8 trillion of off-balance sheet spend, okay? This is off-balance sheet spend. We're at $1.8 trillion in June, okay? That's June. What happened by August? By August, it almost doubled to 3.1. So all of a sudden, we go from here to here in the span of two months. It's literally two months, and we've skyrocketed over here. What's since happened? Has the spending gone down? Well, here we sit, what are we, 8, 10, about two months later, you know, the beginning of November. So two-ish months later, we now sit at 4.11. That's slightly less of an increase. This is a little bit more extreme over here. So this would be a little bit more drawn out. Whatever, you kind of get the idea. This slope is higher than that slope. It doesn't matter. But the point is, the spending is going up by insane amounts. We've gone from 1.8 trillion to 3.1 to 4.11 trillion of spent in the span of four to five months. So what's happening? Why is there so much fear if purchase orders are skyrocketing? I mean, what happened to Amazon's commitments? Amazon's commitments, like Amazon alone, just Amazon, okay? Amazon went from about 125 in commitments to $254 billion. Why are the rich companies spending more money on AI and the market is selling off? How do you reconcile those things? Well, you reconcile it on a bigger whiteboard. So this is what we drew. All right, so here we go. First, Microsoft, we want to spend more. Yeah, that's literally what they're saying. If you look at the Microsoft earnings call, we can pull it up. We look at the Microsoft earnings call. We're going to see that this is a company that says, hey, we don't see, you know, an economy or sort of this bubble situation where we should be spending less money. Now, Microsoft is in the headlines right now because of delays of neocloud deals with companies like Nscale or iREN. And so a lot of people are like, oh, my gosh. They read the headlines and they say, oh, my gosh. Well, if Microsoft is delaying those deals with those companies, with those neoclouds, then the AI boom must be over, right? Let's bail. Let's jump ship. Let's pull what the paper hander guy did over on Twitter. Who's the paper hander guy on Twitter? Well, you can follow me there at RealMeKevin. I tweeted about it yesterday. But this is very common. When you get high momentum areas, a lot of people flow into high momentum stocks when everybody's buying them and they can't lose money because the stock market just keeps going up. Here's this guy who posted, grumpier by the day, I hit my personal circuit breakers. I've cleared my account of shares. This guy literally liquidated everything. My breaker is the moment at which my account can cover capital gains plus pay off my house. So, in other words, this guy has debt and then panics because his portfolio went from 1.3 million to 650K or under it. So, the guy paper hands and sells everything because he's got debt. We don't know what kind of margin he has or what. But now people look and go, oh, I got to pay off money. I better get out. Oh, but wait, the AI boom is over, right? It's dead, right? I mean, Microsoft, if they're killing deals with Nscale or these other companies, it's over, right? Well, no. Capital expenditures in the second quarter will be over $50 billion by Microsoft. In the calendar year, Microsoft expects to spend $170 billion. Now, why are they not going to spend more? They're not going to spend more because of third-party capacity delays. In the second half of the year coming up, we expect CapEx spend to accelerate primarily from CPUs, inclusive of higher memory and storage costs. I'm actually really bullish NAND right now. I think you buy the dip in NAND storage. That's different from RAM. Okay? Look up the difference. But I think an oversupply is coming from memory but not NAND. It's an interesting play. But anyway, that's a little more niche and really a topic for a different video. So, what you have here is you have delays happening with these data centers. Why are some of these delays happening? Well, there are reports that because we're moving to what's called persistently online artificial intelligence agents, there are reports that Microsoft is respeccing what they want on their data centers. And they're saying, oh, well, we want different cabling architecture. Maybe we weren't as clear about what we wanted before. So, now there are all these articles that are coming out that are leading to even more fear in the market like this. Microsoft sours on NeoClouds owing to data center delays. And basically, they're saying costs are going up. There are regulatory delays. Microsoft has buyer's remorse for working with the NeoClouds like IREN. Delivery of third-party capacity has been delayed, mostly because of these intricate networks of fiber optic cables and basically bad specking for what would ultimately be needed. Elon, of course, has jumped on this bandwagon and said, hey, some of these puppies are going to go bankrupt. But anyway, that's basically what he said. Microsoft over here has pledged hundreds of billions of dollars to data centers. You can actually see the total pledges here outside of their earnings call here. These are Microsoft leases which have not yet commenced. You'd actually see that in the second and third quarter, we've skyrocketed in how much money they want to spend on data centers. So, the problem isn't the willingness to spend on AI. The problem is that there are delays happening in data centers at the same time as other things are going on. So, Microsoft wants to spend more. Okay, well, that's bullish, right? Then over here, but now, we want persistent AI agents. Okay, that's fine. That's bullish because it's going to take more CPUs. It's going to take more memory. It's going to take more compute. We're changing the specs. That creates a delay. People in the stock market don't do well with delays. There is no patience in the stock market. People pay per hand anytime patience is required. It's a great buying opportunity. Delays, which not only occurred with Microsoft-related companies like IREN, but gas infrastructure at Oracle or whatever, make credit default swaps go up. When credit default swaps go up, liquidity goes down. It's a doom loop. This right here is a doom loop. And then, you get the blue wave with moratoria threats. Levered stocks get crushed. And a lot of people are leveraged up in 3X leveraged ETFs, and they get absolutely smoked on days like today. Because then, they lever up on leveraged ETFs, which, guess what, don't show up on FINRA margin statistics. And now, you're margined up on, like, a 3X leveraged ETF so you can get rich quickly, and then you go bankrupt. It's a terrible idea. You should be owning great quality companies without exposure to debt right now. Some of the valuations right now, worth mentioning, are very, very low. We look at, for example, Micron right now is trading for a 0.35 peg. Microsoft's at about 1.5. Lumentum's at 0.72. Marvell is at 0.68. Broadcom is at 0.58. NVIDIA is at 0.59. How much of a cyclicality discount do those plays need? SanDisk, 1.2. These are very low. These would generally be closer to 2 to 2.5 at the margins that they run. And you can look at even a company like Applovin. In fairness, Applovin's up, like, 30% today. Applovin's excellent pricing power. Excellent valuation. Excellent momentum. Excellent balance sheet. Everything about it is excellent. It's only trading for a 1 peg right now. And they've got some really big catalysts coming up, which is also pretty exciting. But that's Applovin. I've got exposure to Applovin. I like it. Big fan. I'm also a big fan of buying the dip. I'm not bearish on any of this stuff that we're seeing. And my goal is to show you exactly why. So what I'll also do now is I want to show you what's going on with credit default swaps. I'm going to show you the actual chart. I do just want to shout something out if the volatility of the market is driving you freaking crazy right now. One thing you could do is you could actually now invest in venture capital with as little as $500. You could go check out usvc.com. They're a sponsor of my startup, Reinvest. And I made a little video breaking them down if you wanted to take a look at the video. But there's a detailed video on it. It's called Investing in AI Venture Capital with Just $500. Here's how. Paid partnership with USVC. But you can learn more about how you can invest in AI Venture Capital, including one of my favorites, Mercury Bank, the fintech. Technically not a bank, but they've applied for their banking license. And I think they're getting it, which is kind of cool. But anyway, now they're doing payroll software, which is a threat to Intuit. They're doing bookkeeping software. It's incredible what that company is doing. But anyway, you can get exposure to companies like that by checking out usvc.com. And I actually, I guess I do have an affiliate link I'm supposed to use. Oops. But anyway, you're welcome. I'll put a link on screen later. But there's, I think it's, let's see. I think it's slash MK at the end. I care more about if you're interested in it. Go check out that company. But we'll put a little link. For now, though, let's just get back to focusing on what's going on in the market. Yeah, it's slash MK at the end. So usvc.com slash MK. And one of the cool things they're doing right now is they're doing a 5% match. So if you sign up, they'll match your investment with a 5% offer. So if you check that video out in detail, you can see how you can get exposure to AI venture capital investments through that fund, USVC. I'm personally excited about what they're building. And they're adding a 5% match to every investment now for a limited time. So if you invest $1,000, for example, you get an extra $50. So you can check that out at usvc.com slash MK. Okay, so that's that in case the volatility of the public market is driving you nuts. Let's now focus on credit default swaps. So here you go, credit default swaps. Credit default swaps. Below, you're going to see Oracle, CoreWeave, and Meta credit default swaps. These, in my opinion, are very useful because of what we see with what I call the doom loop. So I've written about the doom loop. In fact, I made a little sub stack, and then we're going to talk about it, Ron. So I made a little sub stack. The first post that I ever made on the sub stack was actually here. My first stack ever for free on the AI doom loop. Okay, so how does the AI doom loop work? The AI doom loop is basically there's a delay. The delay leads CDSs to go up. Credit default swaps to go up. When CDSs go up, momentum comes in. This is basically a trade that comes in, and you drive CDSs up even more. That increases the cost of bond yields. So it makes it more expensive for these companies to borrow. That increases the financing risk of the neoclouts, which then increases delays, which then increases credit default swaps, which then increases credit default swaps more, which then increases the interest rates these companies have to pay. Okay, this is the doom loop. Add to this the stock going down, right? Which would be over here. Risk and the stock down. So that's the doom loop. Delays lead to more expensive debt, more insurance. More insurance leads to momentum insurance, which leads to even higher costs of capital, which leads to the stocks going down even more. So that's the AI doom loop. So is the AI doom loop worsening? No. Not right now. Even though the stock market is selling off, Oracle has actually come down, which is shocking. Oracle is down on its credit default swaps. The momentum is starting to come out of the insurance protection that people are seeking against the AI bubble going poopy doopy. If you look at core weave, in fairness, it is still at peak. But it hasn't gotten worse, which is really interesting. You would think that, I mean, we just pulled these charts. You would think that right now it would be getting worse. Then, over here, you have Meta, which is also getting less bad. You know, the numbers are still not great, but they're getting less bad. Which is the opposite of what you would expect when the stocks are selling off, which suggests that what's really broadly happening in the stock market right now is a capitulation because of the Democratic victory. This Democratic victory is creating this fear that, instantaneously, Democratic governors in states, like Texas, are going to be able to immediately stop data centers. And Democratic governors, like Hinojosa, have now been pledging $1,500 stimulus checks to start giving money back to the people and how they're going to stop the data centers. But these people don't take office until January. Then they're going to have to work with their legislatures. It's going to take probably until March or April before you actually see legislation on data centers. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up coming to the conclusion that, wait a minute, do we really want the data centers to go to Louisiana or to the red states? Or do we want to keep those construction jobs in Texas? So, I think what happened, and this is my opinion, I think what happened, is at the same time you had these AI safety fears, remember at the, kind of the end of August and the beginning of September, everybody got really nervous about those rogue agents breaking out, and they're breaking out of containment, and all of a sudden you get this giant safety fear. All right, so you get this massive safety fear. And what happens when you get a giant safety fear? People say, okay, what we need to do is stop AI. Well, who can stop AI? I know, I know, vote Democrat. Now, whether or not those politicians are actually going to do what they say, I questioned. I questioned that substantially. But AI safety fears have driven this election. At the same time as Donald Trump screwed up. He didn't get a deal done with Iran. That was a big mistake. J.D. Vance himself says that was one of the reasons why Republicans got shellacked here. Republicans got destroyed because they didn't end the war. This is J.D. Vance's tweet where he literally says it. And Donald Trump says, in response to this, that J.D. Vance is mostly correct. That he agrees with J.D. Vance that we should have ended the war before, and that the war was underestimated as a reason for why people voted the way they did. We should have focused on the cost of living, we should have focused on inflation, we should have focused on putting America first, and our relationship with Israel. And we didn't, and therefore Republicans lost. So then the question is, where do we stand on a deal now? Well, the problem with that is, it's not good. Now the Iranians, more than ever, feel they want a nuclear weapon. There is more talk now than ever before that the Iranians say, we need the same nuclear deterrence that Pakistan has, that North Korea has, that India has, that Russia has, that China has. We need the same thing that they need, which is not great. And so that's what's stalling, excuse me, that's what's stalling negotiation efforts now. I think the greatest chance to make a deal was before the election. It's harder now. New York Times now saying that Iran is reviewing a set of proposals that could shape the future of their nuclear program. Now there's a hope that maybe that'll represent a breakthrough. We hear this every other day. I'm hopeful eventually we'll get a deal. And if we get a deal, everything goes back to the moon. All this painful by the dipping will have been worth it. But I did think that Donald Trump would have realized the best time to make a deal was before the election. The next best time to make a deal is now. Iran's willingness to re-engage on nuclear talks after weeks of refusing to budge suggests recent mediation efforts by Qatar to prevent a full-blown return to war have had some success. That's good. We like to hear that. They've described the terms being reviewed as, quote, concrete proposals. That's nice. Because a deal with Iran right now would bail out the stock market. It would bail out the pain on yields. It would bail out the pain on oil, which is actually up 3% today. Why is it up 3% today? Well, it fell under $100 yesterday on the J.D. Vance post. But that doesn't mean Donald Trump's actually going to do anything about it. That's the problem. The pressure to do anything is off the table now. So, we don't know. We don't know when we're actually going to get a deal with Iran. But between now and us getting a deal, we have to deal with tighter financial conditions, which, yes, lowers the odds that the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates. We have to deal with more spending and more money raising by companies like SpaceX, who have to raise a trillion dollars, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, who's now raising money, Amazon, who's raising money, all at the same time that the labor market hopefully keeps holding up. See, the worst thing that could happen right now is the stock market falls to the point where it forces layoffs. That is the worst thing that could happen right now. If the stock market falls to where it forces layoffs, you go into a recession. Fortunately, that does not appear to be what's happening right now. ADP strong, ISM strong, PMI strong, all of them indicating more hiring. Labor force productivity came out this morning. What did we hear? Q3 labor force productivity is up at the highest annualized pace we have seen in over a year. 3.6% annualized labor force productivity. Again, AI is just getting started in the productivity boost. Unit labor costs are down 0.7%. Now, in fairness, that does mean worker pricing power is weakening. Worker PP is getting smaller. Okay? We want big PP. All of us want big PP. We all want to be able to make more money. Big PP. That's what we want. But AI actually makes it easier for companies to get rid of you and do work without you, which isn't great. We do not want the labor market to roll over. Right now, what's happening right now? Well, what's happening right now is the labor market is doing very well. And the AI spend is increasing. So if we look at the two real recession canaries, okay? And trust me, I will scream recession at you as soon as I actually think we are heading towards a recession. Who knows? Maybe it will be too late by then. No guarantees. But I think there are two. Labor and AI spend. Okay? Those are your two canaries for a recession. Right now, AI spend is going up and to the right. Right now, the labor market, as crazy as it sounds, in aggregate, not every portion of the economy, in aggregate, is going up and to the right. When these winds start fading, these tailwinds, that's when you should really get nervous. But I actually think what's happening right now, like, you know, if I had to put together why the market is selling off right now, I would simplify it into a combined answer. Okay. One sec. Here we go. There you go. Fear about Democrats, which in my opinion is overblown, plus debt. Equals people we need bitching. This market is basically a graph of human emotion. You know, the market doesn't have to align with where we think valuations are at all times. That's how fundamental analysts make money over the long term. They buy when things are fundamentally cheap. There are a lot of fundamentally cheap companies right now. NVIDIA. I mean, we went through some of the peg ratios. These are really good companies that are dirt cheap, that are printing money. But fear and a lack of momentum, like we saw in that Morgan Stanley momentum index, that's what's creating this pain. Now, what about that labor market? People are like, oh, but, you know, what about unemployment claims? Unemployment claims, which I do think are a lagging indicator, but unemployment claims right now have not been as low as they are right now since 1969. So, despite the fact that you hear, oh, Disney's laying off or voluntary buybacks at Microsoft or whatever, people actually filing for unemployment insurance on a weekly basis are at the lowest level that they have been in. I got to do the math on a calculator. 57 years. Over half of a century. That's how low unemployment claims are right now. That's insane. To me, and this is what we called in our alpha report, is expect volatility after the Dem sweep. It's not going to be straight up. After the election, it could take 6 to 12 months after a midterm election for things to go up. I think right now, a lot of people are swallowing a really fat pill, and they got to digest this brick. At the same time as there's a lot of digestion going on with the liquidity sucking that's going on, people don't really care about all this data when they go hit the sell button. What they care about is making, you know, making their portfolio look like it's going up every single day, when really what they should be doing is focused on how can I acquire more high-quality companies that I can hold forever. The stocks that we are buying long-term in our membership of reinvest1.com, these are stocks we are holding for at least 10 years. We've made that clear. Every single one of those puppies. Hold, hold, hold, hold, hold. 10 years. That's, going into that makes you ignore these little weenie babies. Guys, I'm hitting my personal circuit breakers as if the person had to have some logic for selling when the reality is that's sort of post-branded fear sold in a package of logic. That's my opinion. So, one more thing. One more set of data. Sensitivity right now, unfortunately, is elevated for fundraising, and it's elevated in exactly the market you kind of don't want it to be elevated in. Semiconductors. You kind of have what I call the perfect storm. The most hyped sector right now in markets, semiconductors. That's the problem. Guess what the least hyped sector right now is? Real estate. I kid you not. Look on the screen. The most hyped, right here, semiconductors. This is the most hyped sector that you can buy in the stock market. Well, I mean, you've got utilities and capital goods over here, but these are all kind of together. They're all sort of like in the same group at a max hype level. Real estate is almost at the lowest hype level possible. This is why 90 cents of every dollar that we put to work goes to real estate. Because we are buying the dip where people hate it, and that's real estate. And debt just makes people weenie baby. Semiconductors are getting fearful. This is going to reverse. You know, these bars are going to start coming down in hype because people are going to get bearish. That is an opportunity to buy. If you look over here, you can actually see semiconductors are also most sensitive to the yield curve flattening. Real estate is not. Total opposite ends of the extreme. So, if you want a barbell approach, you buy the dip on semis, you buy the dip on real estate. That is, in my opinion, a glorious barbell. Except I'm like 90% real estate and, you know, the rest other things. Flatter yield curve, as liquidity is getting squeezed. We haven't been at these levels of the yield curve since 2024, which is really where we had the Japanese carry trade crisis. In fact, I think there's a third chart that we didn't look at here. Yeah, right here. Oh, we looked at this. This is the risk appetite indicator that liberation in the Japanese carry trade areas have actually indicated risk appetite has worsened or was even worse. Now, in fairness, this chart is from three days ago. So, this could be way worse right now. We might be closer to those levels right now. That's the problem. You don't tend to see that until after the fact, which is a little bit of a bummer. But, you know, what are you going to do? So, yeah. Let's take a peek here at the market one more time. So, the market, we now have the NASDAQ 100 sitting down about 5% on the day. It's pretty rough. Did briefly bounce here. Roughly a double bounce at the 650-34 line. We laughed at the 675 line, which is a little bit scary. Even Lennar's down today. Even Eli Lilly, which has been killing it. Look at that. Straight down intraday. We own Eli Lilly. I've been buying this since about probably around 1090, somewhere around here. Maybe 1100. Somewhere in this mess over here. Moderna as well. We've been picking up Moderna, which is down also today. But, we've been picking up Moderna at around 145. Peloton had earnings yesterday. And, look at this. Skyrocketed after the earnings to over $6. And, even it has gotten hit today in this sort of tech sell-off. This broad-based indiscriminate selling or margin calling or liquidations or whatever that are going on. It's a disaster out there. Crazy, huh? All right. Let's listen in to CNBC for a second. Let's just see what they have to say about all this craziness.
[02:00:29] Speaker 3: CNBCevents.com slash digital. Oh, nothing.
[02:00:32] Speaker 5: Okay. Well, fine then. Let me switch channels here. No problem. No problem, CNBC. We will just switch channels on your butt.
[02:00:43] Speaker 11: On some of the spending. But now, everything's moving lower.
[02:00:46] Speaker 12: AI is all, you know, kind of together in terms of how this build-out would affect them. So, I don't think anyone is perfectly insulated here. Yeah. Hyperscalers do have a relatively better positioning compared to, I would say, the chip makers because they have the live capacity. So, if you can't have new data centers come online, the existing data centers become more valuable, and hyperscalers are the ones who are renting that capacity.
[02:01:14] Speaker 11: Okay. What about NeoClouds? I was shocked to see that CoreWeave is down more than 75% from its highs of last year. Brody's got a great story out. We spoke to him about it regarding Microsoft potentially pulling back a little bit. What's your view there, very briefly?
[02:01:29] Speaker 12: I mean, that's where, if you are leasing to, you know, a handful of customers, and your customer base is so concentrated where two or three customers decide your fate, and suddenly they are like, oh, we're looking at, you know, different options when it comes to whether we want to lease or not. And, you know, that's where the long-term agreements come into play, what sort of pricing they have logged in, and what do they do about the leverage? In the case of NeoClouds, it's just the leverage that they have and what kind of ROI is embedded in the debt that they have already taken.
[02:02:03] Speaker 11: Mandeep Singh of Bloomberg Intelligence, he is the man for this moment. Check out his research and his entire team's research on the Bloomberg Terminal. The Nasdaq 100 down about 5% right now. A lot.
[02:02:14] Speaker 6: That is going to do traffic pressures on brick and mortar, not necessarily online. So there's a more cautious guy there moving forward on Europe in particular, but he says they are taking up estimates in North America and Asia while down in Europe. In North America specifically, the home market, Patrice says that they are driving growth above expectations. They're done mostly on the wholesale reset. In other words, they got rid of some of the lower-priced outlet stores and that sort of thing and have been really focused on growth both in wholesale and direct-to-consumer. Olympics, he says, is a major opportunity in the U.S. And then overall on the consumer, he says they see resiliency across key cities around the world. The core consumer, he says, for Ralph, is now higher value, less price-sensitive, and younger, and they have higher basket sizes. In other words, they've really upgraded who they're catering to over the last few years. He also notes that the shape of the customer is materially different than 10 years ago. And one way that investors in Wall Street see this, Carl, is in AUR, which is the annual retail, average unit retail, which is basically, it's not that they're just raising prices, which that comes with it, but just the value perception and the elevation of the brand where they get more premium pricing. That's gone up for the last 38 quarters, went up another 9% this quarter.
[02:03:33] Speaker 9: I wonder how much of the story involves China, because we did have a China Miss at Apple, BMW guided lower in part because of China. Is that an issue?
[02:03:41] Speaker 6: They have 35% growth in China, so it hasn't been an issue for Ralph Lauren and also Tapestry, too, with Coach. It's been really strong, double digits in China. I think both of these brands are growing share at a time where luxury, you know, the ultra-luxury brands, they just went up too much on price. There's been a pushback for consumer. And so that presents an opportunity overall.
[02:04:02] Speaker 9: Yeah, I definitely have seen that from the big luxury names in the last couple of weeks. So we sit here at $74.50 or so, having bounced off a $7,400. At one point, it was, we were looking for a bid and weren't getting them in the mid-morning part of the action.
[02:04:16] Speaker 6: Look, it's not helpful. You see headlines from Dina Powell, the president of Meta, talking at this Wall Street Journal conference, saying maybe we look to build data centers outside the United States. I mean, that's the conversations. We've talked to a few folks, too, who have said, I don't know, Saudi Arabia has voracious demand for building data centers. If that's where the electorate is with this pushback, then.
[02:04:36] Speaker 5: You heard that yesterday from Cerebris as well. Yesterday, Cerebris, I think, went to BlackRock or Blackstone conference. And they're like, yeah, look, we might have to just, if there's going to be this dem wave over here in the U.S., we'll just sell our chips to the Middle East. We'll sell our chips to other locations. Like, whatever. F it, then. Then, you know, we won't. I think it's mostly overblown, honestly. Mostly overblown. But, you know, whatever. Let's go take a look at what the good old FinTwit has for us today. So, let's see here. Look at this. Hearing several pods blowing up. Two credit pods earlier from the week from Millennium and many equity pods. Yeah. This is, uh, here. Here's another one. Lots of pods closing, including an entire division of a fund. Wow, dude. These are, these are the buys, man. Those are the times you buy when they're getting liquidated. Stock sell-off looks like Algo's offloading. Sure. Move was sharp and fast. 150 point benchmark contraction. Characteristic of algorithmic execution. Uh-huh. Yeah. CTA slid through 7, 6, 6, 5. A level where, uh, algorithmic, uh, programmatic selling's coming in. Sure. Goldman thinks the market has gone too far in pricing and the memory downturn. So, I actually agree with this. I think that, you know, yes. Is there a discount that you should have for cyclicality? Of course there is. So, you know, memory stocks historically have been extremely cyclical and prone to very prolonged downturns. Should you discount what you're willing to pay for those companies because of that? Of course. But how much? You know, Micron's trading for like 0.3 right now. It's insane. Totally agree with this. Current beaten down valuations. The market is already pricing in, or baking at 65% cut to earnings of 2027. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I actually, I agree with this. Let's, uh, let's slap some of these together here. And, uh, just see some other notes that we've got going on. So, let's see. Okay, let's do this. Oh, I gotta close up some markers here. You know, a lot of markers. There we go. All right. So, we'll just call these, um, other notes. So, we're gonna say, uh, rumors of equity and credit pods, uh, getting blown up. TAs is, may have triggered technical algo sell level at 7665. Uh, then you've got, you know, Bloomberg thinks, Bloomberg thinks this is classic algo selling. Then you've got this comment here on memory. All right. So, this is current beaten down valuations. Market is baking down. Okay. So, Goldman argues, uh, current valuations are baking in a 65% cut to 2027, uh, earnings. That's insane. Goldman sees a potential for the sector to double. Yeah. Yeah, I, I, I, so I agree with this. Uh, I think the memory sell-off has gotten too extreme. Uh, too much of a cyclical, uh, discount. You know, you've, you've basically just gone into extreme bear territory. Oh, speaking of which, we should look at CNN, Greed, and Fear. That would be fun to look at right now. Uh, back to extreme fear, boys and girls. So, market momentum is at extreme fear. Breath is neutral. But everything else is extreme fear. That's interesting. That's why RSP is holding up so well. You know, that's your equal weight S&P 500. Let's see here.
[02:09:20] Speaker ?: Let's see here.
[02:09:21] Speaker 5: So, that is extreme fear is back. All right. Let's see here. Yeah, here's another one. Uh, city indicating that data center, uh, bands and pauses, basically moving, uh, I don't know that I would call it exponential. But, uh, the chart doesn't look good. Oops. That's wrong. That's wrong. Grab. Let's grab. Where is JPEG? Here we go. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I could see it. Okay. Yeah, I see it. So, this is the Kospi Semiconductor Index for memory is trading at the lowest level that we've seen since October. Oh, wow. Ever. Holy smokes, dude. Look at that. That's insane. Wow. That is so low. Like, that's, that's what you want to buy. These are buy levels. Let's jot that in here. Today, that's this one. Yeah. Yeah, that's incredible. So, this is really AI related. And, as one of our node earlier, AI related.
[02:11:00] Speaker ?: Okay.
[02:11:02] Speaker 5: Let's keep cooking here. Let's see what else is going on. So, I agree with this. Like, substantially. Okay. Continuing to cook. Then we've got. Oh, let's see. Justin Leopold's fund has blown up. Again? Use him as a lesson why you never want to leverage in. No kidding. Like, how many times can you blow up? But we don't know that that's true. Oh, here. Yeah. Big fan. This is the USVC.com pitch. They're doing a match. Okay. This is Flight Audio. Rubio on Resignation Watch. Some of the posts on X are just weird. Robinson. Like, you get, like, five good posts. And then you get a bunch of trash. Let's go into situ. What's situ saying? All right. So, this is Wally Capital blown up. Is that true? Let's go see. Wally. Is that, like, Wally Coyote? Wally. Capital. Wall Eye. Oh, Wall Eye. I'd love to see where those. Oh, here we go. Behind Wall Street's plunge. AI liquidation threatens Anthropic. Oh. Let's go see what's cooking over here. That's interesting. Okay. Here we go. So, this says. Oh, my gosh. Stop. Oh. Oh, dude. I just want to read the article. Okay. Here we go. So, this is. Where's the liquidation talk? Intensifies the liquidation. Liquidating positions. Bloomberg reported Thursday that hedge fund Wally Capital plans to return part of its capital to clients, according to a client letter. Oh, a client letter, eh? Oh, we can probably find that. I'll come right back to that.
[02:14:21] Speaker 13: Earnings are going to get hit. If this trade unravels in a more substantial way, how can these stocks be valued at current levels? How?
[02:14:31] Speaker 14: You can't. And you're seeing the re-rating going on. And you saw it in October as well. And if you look at the equal weighted S&P in October, it outperformed the market cap. And the rotation that you're talking about kind of started four to six weeks ago. And really, if you were invested, to Josh's point, in health care and staples and had a diversification strategy, you know, those are the stocks that even yesterday, look at health care. It was a three standard deviation compared to kind of the rest of the market. So, you know, to the point of semis, if you look back, they peaked at 20% of the S&P. They were 16% really as of last week. They're probably down to 12 or 14 now. But the largest that it ever became was 2008 when there was 8% of the S&P. So you had a lot of money following really fast and growth that is probably not going to be there. But the opportunities there, and we've talked about it at length, you can be in other areas that can't have organic growth.
[02:15:23] Speaker 13: Oh, I understand that. But, I mean, this has been the story. I caught your eye as we were having this discussion here. And I got the feeling that you disagree on part of this.
[02:15:36] Speaker 15: I don't know that I completely disagree. I may disagree on the timing. To me, it's all about what happens to earnings going forward. Microsoft told you about the demand side. It's insatiable. You're going to hear about the supply side of this from NVIDIA on November 17th. I think right now what's being threatened is the future build. As I said, compute is going to become more expensive for those who are able to provide it. I also think this whole notion that the financing of this is built on pillars of salt and sand is true maybe for some companies. But it certainly isn't true for others. Look at Meta's financing. They went out to raise $9 billion and had $53 billion of demand. They're sitting on cash. You know, you look at a private equity company. It's five times levered. They're trading at one times free cash flow. It's ridiculous that we're worried about financing for the best companies.
[02:16:35] Speaker 16: The way the NASDAQ looks right now, it's as though everyone were about to take off their hard hat and say, oh, Democrats won? No more Internet, I guess. Yeah, I agree with him. And walk off the job site like Fred Flintstone, slide down the back of a dinosaur. Like, that's literally not happening. It's not happening. But you've got power. There's no Democrats saying that that's going to happen. What is more likely, what is more likely, and Malcolm's point on where are the earnings going to come from, the market never believed in them anyway. Yes. And that's why NVIDIA is selling at 14 times forward. If anybody thought that their 28 and 29 estimates were anything other than, like, a best, best, best case scenario, that stock would, at a minimum, sell at a market multiple. SanDisk is three and a half times earnings. Does that tell you that anyone believed that this was going to go on at the same pace that it was? By the way.
[02:17:27] Speaker 5: Yeah, in other words, like, it's already, like, some build-out slowdown is already built into pricing. I totally agree with that. It's like, the question is just how much of a discount, right?
[02:17:42] Speaker 17: In this moment where they might seize this opportunity to reduce guidance on CapEx going forward, where they were the company that came out and made it very clear, we're not going to go free cash flow positive. We've had the reporting for several months about how Amy Hood was not a fan of how aggressive they had been with spending on the AI build-out. And now's the opportunity for those hyperscalers to say, you know what? We see what's happening out there with the political climate, and we think maybe we ought to walk back with those commitments or what those expectations are. I don't think they can, Malcolm. This is the window to do it, is my whole point. It may well be. This is their window to do it. It may well be. And if they're going to do it, then they won't need the levels of debt financing that you're talking about.
[02:18:22] Speaker 15: We agree on that, but if I see a business that is far outstripping my ability to sell, then why are they canceling projects within scale and others?
[02:18:35] Speaker 5: Yeah, we already explained why they're canceling projects. They're not canceling projects, they're delaying projects because they can't get the shit up fast enough. Component shortages, not because the AI bubbles over. But that's the thing. People read the headline, or they hear the headline, what? Microsoft is canceling projects? Oh my gosh, that's it. The AI bubbles over, sell everything. Then you actually put your freaking pants on. Your pooping pants on. You put your pooping pants on. You pull yourself up. And you actually read the data. And it's exactly the opposite. Microsoft's spending more money. Please let us spend more money. Microsoft is frustrated at how hard it is to spend money. Kind of crazy if you think about that, eh? Anyway. Okay, cool. So let me... Okay, it does look like I am getting a bunch of info here about the walleye capital. It does look like that is a hedge fund that has gone poopsie doopsies. The time to buy is when other people are getting liquidated, right? Like, you find... What's the Warren Buffett quote? When the tide goes out, you can see who's really swimming naked. Well, that's what we're seeing right now. People's swimming naked out there. And it's not good. Not good. The AI bubble crash. The AI bubble crash. Depression. Recession. AI. AI crash. It's all a bunch of nonsense. But anyway, let's go... Let me see here. Uh... Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha. Okay. Let's... Let me pull up... Because I can't... I can't find the actual letter. It looks like it was a private letter that they sent to their clients. But I can put... I am finding some just notes on it.
[02:20:42] Speaker ?: Uh...
[02:20:42] Speaker 5: I think there's a Bloomberg piece on it. Return to Capital. Reason... Let me see here. No. All right. So this is the note I'm seeing on it. But I don't actually see the Bloomberg story on it. Uh... This says here... These are assets they have. Hedge fund walleye to return part of its capital per client letter for Bloomberg. So this must just be a headline that's coming through. Let me see. This is... Eh... Company news. Oh, got it. Okay. Yeah. No. It's... So it's just a red line headline. Bloomberg news. Okay. Here we go. Walleye Capital is returning a portion of its cash as the hedge fund revamps its internal equities business following the worst monthly performance since March of 2020. Aha. Aha. So they got hosed the last time the circuit breakers were going off as well. Now that's interesting. All right. Now we get some color. That's what I've been waiting for. Okay. Here we go. So it says, uh... Worst monthly performance since March of 2020. Uh... Pro... But not a coincidence that, uh... Stocks also... Stocks hit circuit breakers... Then and almost did today. Within 1% on QQQ. I'll just say NASDAQ 100. Okay. So it says here... The firm's head of equities has been let go. Fired. Along with substantial portion of equities team. Oh, wow. Uh... They lost 5.9% in October. You know. And today decided to return a portion of cash as, uh... Yeah. As they revamp. What else does it say? It says... Simplifying. Long, short business. Uh... Let's see. Founded in 2005. Prop firm. Substantially underperforming. Failed efforts to improve internal business. Competitive advantage. Has been failing. Firm has pursued ambitions to become a multi-strategy hedge fund. But has retreated. 2025. Uh... It fired its credit and commodities team. And now this. Wow. All right. Well, yep. So there's... There's your... First liquidation here. Now what assets did they have? Wallet. Capital. AUM. 17 billion under management. Wow. Wow. Uh... So that was Wall-Eye Capital. I guess they didn't have an I. Um... Uh... Sorry. I can't think of a good pun there. I feel like there's a good pun there. Here. Let's try. Give me a good pun for Wall-Eye Capital going bankrupt. They're not going bankrupt. Right? So I'm just... To be clear. But let's see if Gemini has any good puns. No. That's not good. That's not good. Nah. Gemini suck. All right. Whatever. Um... So Wall-Eye Capital, um... Firing head of equities and substantial portion of team, of stock team, as, uh... Team. And, uh, returning some cash to, uh, investors. Liquidations. Starting. 17 billion under AUM. 17 billion in AUM. That's crazy. All right. Let's go see what else is cooking out there. So that's that. The other things that we've got cooking. So that's that. Oh, yeah. We'll just say, uh... 17 billion AUM. Okay. Uh, so what else? So, that's that blow-up. Let's see here. Ski slope. JP Morgan down 3% on new Epstein probe. Oh, no. Never buy ETFs. Leveraged ETFs. Soxel is down 85% from local highs. Wow. Yeah, leveraged ETFs, man. Just keeps going down. Keeps going down. Microsoft Meta and Musk have effectively nuked Neo Clouds. Wow. Okay. What else is going on here? Okay. Then. Uh.
[02:27:08] Speaker 4: Ha ha ha ha. Somebody says Market Wipe Day.
[02:27:14] Speaker 5: Yikes. It's like, it's like Rust. But Market Wipe Day. Ha ha ha ha ha. Ha ha ha. Microsoft is tightening oversight of some of its data center projects. We've talked about that. Spike in the VIX. We saw that. Wow. Micron's at 693. That's incredible. That's incredible. Ha ha ha ha ha. Yields down, sells semis. Yields up, sells semis. Whiperscalers raise CapEx, sell. Cut CapEx, sell. AMD blows out, sell. Democrats win, sell. Republicans would have won, probably sell semis. Sold out of high bandwidth memory through 27. Sell semis. Ha ha ha. There have been 113 trading sessions in QQQ history where it was down 5% each a day. It only closed positive 6 of the 13. Well, yeah. All of those happened in the middle of the dot-com collapse? No way, dude. Oh. Ha ha ha. That's crazy. But honestly, valuations have collapsed like the dot-com market. Like the dot-com bubble. Which is actually really incredible. Let's see here. Worth noting, valuations have collapsed like the dot-com bubble. We're at Cisco post-crash valuations. Let me see what else they're saying over here. So, let's see here. Talked about the yield curve. Force de-risking. Sell-off appears to have morphed. Let's see. Force closure. Blah blah blah. Extreme dispersion. Barclays warned that eventually, let's see, this dispersion becomes correlation. That's fine. Liquidation could spread. Oh, nice. Here's your Barclays warning for the dead. So, Barclays is now reporting. Barclays. Warning. So, what they're saying is. Support levels. And breath holding for now are good. But, the extreme moves in semi-names could lead to correlation where everything breaks lower. That's how you spread the liquidation beyond just the growth heavy losers. Basically, buckle up. Buckle up. Any possibility this is due to Donnie maybe nuking Iran? Yeah, sure. That, that would definitely cause some fear. I mean, we're in that zone where, you know, Trump originally said, oh yeah, yeah, we'll go strike Iran again. Oh, is there a, is there a post about the holdings that Walleye has? Let me see here. Oh, let's see. Actually, I could, oh, here we go. Now, that's interesting. Oh, they did have some hedges. Amazon. Some Microsoft. G.P. Morgan. Tesla. Cisco. Sandisk. Carnival. Yeah, interesting. All right, what else? classic rotation out of AI and into obesity. Wow. Capitulation volume. Oh, Jim Cramer says, the NASDAQ 100 bounces at the situational low. Oh. Oh. Yeah, I don't think our spy ended up getting anywhere close. to the breakers. Let me see here. Q, Q, Q. Yeah, Q's are kind of going back down in that direction. Yeah, spy was really only about 4%, so not quite. Not quite bad enough. Bad. Wasn't bad enough. Stocks plunge as democratic sweep sparks AI worries. Tech stocks plummeted on Thursday as traders assess the implications of a democratic sweep in midterms on data centers, with the rotation out of semis morphing into a broader rut, with all 11 sectors in the red. Yeah, basically, it's turning into indiscriminate selling. Whoa, that was loud. It's turning into indiscriminate selling. All right. So, sell-off in tech stocks that have powered a four-year bull run comes amid worries that the democratic sweep could bring tighter regulation, as investors price in a possible slowdown of the AI build-out. The market is repricing growth expectations across the board. Democrats took control on Tuesday. The market is starting to discount that there could be more anti-data center regulation. Traders cautioned against interpreting the bottom move as a fundamental shift. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. We're looking at everyone coming down and saying, okay, let's dig in the weeds a little bit and see what this really means. Economic front, jobless claims, well below estimates, broader market, may find support from seasonal trends. Oh, this is very interesting. Here's a chart that shows you midterms. Midterms, okay. Historical, I like this chart. Let's look at this one together. Pull this up for us. I think this will be useful. So here, this chart, the zero day is right here. Post, midterms. You can see the midterms. Pre-election. This is a little confusing how they wrote this. Average gain for the S&P 500. Midterms follow the best cycle. So the data says, okay, data indicates best performance post-midterms, not post-presidential elections. But it seems to be really concentrated, but it seems like it takes at least 50 days. 50 days. 50 days of like digestion, right? Maybe that's digestion. We'll call it digestion. I like that. It's a good, it sort of, it helps explain that a little bit. NASDAQ open. Yeah, that's a good one. That's a good one right here. It's Normandy. CoreWeave. Currently do not anticipate any impact. CoreWeave commitments. Sure you don't. What else? Is Pete Hex Seth still around? Says Hakeem Jeffries. Oh no. Institutions abandon real estate for data centers. This is the opportunity of a lifetime for Americans to take back real estate from institutions, says Grant Cardone. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Semis are going to have their SaaS moment where they get sold relentlessly for weeks. Make your peace with it, says someone here. Okay. They need to investigate the SH&IT out of Jared Kushner. What is this? The company is looking at other countries where it might be able to build data centers in a more friendly environment. yeah, I mean, you saw that now, I mean, you're hearing that now with Meta. So this would be outsourcing. Cerebris CEO yesterday said at a, I think it was a BlackRock Stone conference that they see a lot of their supply going out of the country next year. And then here's the meta note. Meta. Let's see here. Special situations. Meta, Goog, considering hyperscalers moving out of country to more friendly environments. We'll see that. Two trillion wiped out in 40 minutes. Nice. Nice. Today at Mercury, we're launching agent controls. See every agent connected to your account, what it can do to this activity. Oh, that's awesome. Big fan. So the security chief of Tehran, Tehran will not open the strait of Ormuz before seven conditions are met. Yeah, but they've said that. That's old news. That's old news. Okay. Okay. Getting laid off and then thanking the company on the internet is the biggest load of BS on the internet. I kind of disagree with that. You know, or SpaceX's credit spreads going up. Let me see. I'll look at SpaceX's. Mostly because you, you know, you want to be respectful. Like, no one wants you to be a jaded a-hole. Jaded people have a hard time winning back relationships. You know, like, there are times people have to transition, but sometimes you can reconcile that. You can't reconcile that if you become a jaded a-hole. Okay. Okay. So now, let me see, SpaceX, five-year CDS. Let me see here. that's going
[02:40:44] Speaker ?: that's going
[02:40:44] Speaker 5: to be no, they topped out October 30th. So they also haven't been going up in this latest volatility. I mean, how are yields? Oil's still up two and a half and we're at 4.8 here. Oh, what's this about, Dan? Blue Origin pushes launch to 2027 as it raises a rebuild damaged launch pad. Okay. All right, what else is going on here? Rotation out of chips, rush for safety, defensives, consumer staples are rising. Yeah, I think Walmart is pushing. Let me see here. Still down 5.4% on the queues. This is insane. Walmart, nah, even Walmart is sinking a little bit. NVIDIA is still down almost 8%. Pretty remarkable. Micron has suspended plans for a memory chip plant in Taiwan due to a labor dispute. Peloton forecast holiday revenue that was slightly above Wall Street's expectations. I wonder when they're going to come out with some strength training equipment. Krispy Kreme raised its revenue outlook for the year, showing efforts to turn around the donut chain by refranchising and cutting costs. Nice. Kava sank on concern Mediterranean momentum is slowing. Well, yeah, that's the thing about these stores is they have to keep adding new stores, and as soon as they stop adding stores, it just doesn't work anymore. So we explain this, we explain the Microsoft talk. Webull to pay a $4.2 million fine over compliance issues. FINRA will come for you, man. Oh, more than 50 Webull customers submitted photos of scenic landscapes instead of government issued IDs. Some customers got approved for trading despite indicating customers were dead. Oops. Failing to implement AML controls. Oops. That's crazy. All right. What else here? So we looked at this earlier. Let's jump in here. Palo Alto, voters, Sequoia. Okay. How about the journal? Wall Street Journal. Blue wave touched nearly every part of America. Your finances could change if Democrats repeat their win in 2028. Well, look at that. Just tight. Oh, the editorial boards bag it on the shady vans. Peace. We'll look at that. Russell Brand found guilty of rape and sexual assault charges. Wow. Sentencing will occur on Monday. Oh, wow. Four-week trial in London, accompanied by his wife, Laura. That's got to be awkward. word. Police investigations began in 2023 involving interviews of more than 100 witnesses. Brand uses influence, status, and fame to exploit and sexually offend women. Okay. How are your finances could change if Democrats, that looks like Florida, if Democrats repeat their wins. Oh, well, what do you know? West Palm Beach, Florida. Americans are sizing up their finances after Democrats blow out victories. estate taxes. Ron Wyden renewed his calls to target the ultra-rich. The committee will redouble its efforts to ensure billionaires pay their fair share, so they think the estate tax could be what they come for. Higher taxes on ordinary income and capital gains or lower gift and estate tax amount if Democrats sweep in 20 28 sort of reversing some of the Trump moves. Leiden has also proposed taxing unrealized capital gains or capital gains in general at death. Oh, wow. Richer taking advantage of generous gift tax estate limits tax strategies the IRS has already been looking at 351 conversion for appreciated stock single appreciated stock positions. Long and short strategies private placement life insurance has become pretty increasingly popular amongst ultra wealthy. It's basically all these things in the cross airs they're saying. Social security shortfalls. one way or another they'll fix the problem and I don't know if they're going to fix the problem. Take on more debt. Alright, well that was boring. What do we have over here? J.D. Vance. This is J.D. Vance's theory of election defeat. Never mind corruption, tariffs, or ice rates. He only blames the Iran war. Yeah, I mean that's fair. You have a lot. Right? 90% of national exit polls rated it as a major importance to their vote. Corruption. Said nothing about tariffs even though 89% mentioned tariffs and immigration scored even with the Iran war. Yeah. And that's unfortunately the thing that takes off the pressure for Donald Trump to make a deal with Iran is that it actually seriously isn't just the Iran war. It's a broad host of issues with the Trump administration. Iran war, raised fuel prices, badly unpopular. Nothing on Vance's list wins back to the 2024 campaign. anyway. All right. All right. That's the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal. All right. How's this cooking? Still coming in. Look at that. Wow. The pain. Pretty remarkable, huh? Pundits say market rocky until mid November. Yeah. I mean, I think you need to expect volatility during sort of the adjustment phase. Right? Like, these are liquidations after this Dem sweep. You kind of got to get it priced in. Yeah. Kevin, I saw a car in Philadelphia looking similar to a Waymo. They said they are with NVIDIA collecting information. Yeah, well, NVIDIA has the NVIDIA Drive, Orin, and Thor platforms. Actually fantastic. You know, they've been building that for years, though. Tesla has just stayed so far ahead. It's been pretty remarkable.
[02:49:23] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[02:49:24] Speaker 5: How low did Tesla get right now? Because during the Leofold liquidation, it got down to like 280. Let me see. It got down to 297. Wow. Wow. Pretty remarkable, huh? Yeah. All right. Well, boys and girls, you know what I have to say about it. Oh,
[02:49:58] Speaker 1: man. Your boy Kevin just lost lots of money. Oh, but that's okay. I am
[02:50:03] Speaker ?: with you. With you. Oh,
[02:50:05] Speaker 1: man. Your boy Kevin just lost lots of money. Oh, that's okay. I am with you.
[02:50:12] Speaker 2: Here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Oh, my God. What's happening?
[02:50:27] Speaker 3: First of all, all of this whining by Wall Street is making me sick. 140% of GameStop was short. GameStop was short. Short. You can't allow Wall Street to short. 75% of a stock. Crush these companies into the dirt. Thousands of stocks into the dirt. Then when the individual makes money, everyone's entrepreneurs. I have a kid who bought a house. Payed $50,000 and bought a house. After decades of the shorts, you have to accept the fact that individual investors are playing the same game that you're playing and now you're losing. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip.
[02:51:00] Speaker 2: Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Oh, my God. What's happening? Here we go.
[02:51:13] Speaker ?: Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Push it. Push it. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Oh, my God. What's happening? There's a lot of power in the organization online. Too many people can get together in a subreddit. I think it's really funny that the K-Stop stock is going up and just affects the market in that way. There's 20,000 people live in a Discord who are spamming rocket emojis yelling, go to the moon. Go to the moon.