Lebanon ceasefire begins after days of deadly cross-border strikes

[0:01] A fragile calm descends on Lebanon tonight as a 10-day ceasefire with Israel comes into force. [0:08] Announced by Donald Trump, the truce comes after weeks of relentless cross-border strikes [0:12] and intense Israeli bombardment across Lebanon. [0:16] The fighting has had a devastating impact on the country, [0:19] with close to 2 million people displaced from their homes. [0:22] More than 2,000 people have been killed, while thousands of others have been wounded. [0:27] Close to 2 million people have been driven from their homes in the south, [0:31] in one of the country's worst displacement crises in years. [0:35] Diplomatic efforts to secure a more lasting peace continue. [0:40] Well, we have a team of correspondents covering the story for us from the Lebanese capital, [0:44] Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, Washington, D.C., and the Iranian capital. [0:48] We start with Heidi Pett, who's in Beirut for us. [0:52] Heidi, any signs of de-escalation as this ceasefire now comes into effect? [0:57] So, the ceasefire is technically in effect now, but certainly the last hour did not look like a de-escalation. [1:07] In fact, it looked almost like an escalation. [1:10] There were dozens of Israeli airstrikes across the south of Lebanon. [1:14] In the hour before the ceasefire took effect, Hezbollah continued to claim attacks on Israeli troops, [1:20] both inside Lebanon and also across the border. [1:23] They targeted a settlement where they said there was Israeli military infrastructure. [1:27] One minute into the ceasefire, let's see if that holds, if the front goes quiet. [1:32] Obviously, many people here are hoping for that. [1:35] But Israel's military activity today, I mean, in the last couple of minutes, [1:39] they announced that they had struck 380 what they described as Hezbollah targets across the country in the last 24 hours. [1:46] So, it was certainly, it appears to have been both sides getting in as much damage as they possibly can [1:53] before this pause, which everybody hopes does hold. [1:56] There's been fireworks and celebratory gunfire audible and sporadic bursts across the capital tonight. [2:03] Down here by the waterfront, where many displaced people are still sleeping on the streets in tents. [2:09] People here are nervously waiting to see if it's safe to start moving back to their homes, [2:14] whether they try and start doing that tonight against the advice of Hezbollah [2:18] and also the Amal movement, who've said that people need to be patient to see how this actually plays out, [2:24] whether or not it holds. [2:25] They are asking people to refrain from going home. [2:29] But speaking to people across Beirut tonight, [2:31] some have indicated their intention to start doing so no matter what. [2:35] And we have seen that celebratory firework in the skies of Beirut this evening. [2:40] Nita Ibrahim, in Ramallah, in the occupied West Bank, [2:43] what's the situation in northern Israel? [2:46] As Heidi said there, up until an hour ago, there were reports of rocket fire from Lebanon. [2:54] Well, up until minutes ago, according to Israeli sources, [2:59] Hezbollah continued firing rockets into northern Israel, [3:02] the area of Qaryat Shemone, which had seen its share of rockets throughout this battle. [3:07] But at the same time, we are talking about a rocket attack that was expected to be intensified in the minutes [3:16] before technically the ceasefire takes effect. [3:20] According to the Israeli sources, the latest barrages have caused three injuries too seriously. [3:26] But that goes to show why the anger in the northern Israeli communities is real. [3:33] They believe that Israel did not diminish Hezbollah's ability to threaten communities in that area. [3:41] They know that the disarmament of Hezbollah might have been difficult during this round of battle. [3:48] But at least they were hoping that the area that the Israeli forces have tried to infiltrate, [3:55] have tried to occupy, have pushed deeper in, would at least protect communities in northern Israel from these rockets. [4:04] But that has been challenged by the reality. [4:07] That has been challenged by the Israeli military sources who have been saying [4:11] that much of the rockets being fired from Hezbollah are fired from places far away from the Israeli army's presence. [4:18] But all of that is showing us how much anger there is in Israel that the Israeli government had to respond [4:26] to President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire. [4:29] And just now, the Israeli Channel 12 has released a poll saying that it conducted amongst its viewers. [4:36] And 51% of Israelis do not want this ceasefire with the negotiations, [4:43] while only 21% of those polls want the ceasefire. [4:48] So we are talking about a majority of Israelis who were hoping to keep striking targets in Lebanon, [4:56] but they had to, or the government had to listen to Trump's announcement. [5:02] Israelis may not want this ceasefire, as you say, Nida, [5:05] but the Lebanese people are certainly celebrating it. [5:09] As we see on our live pictures there from Beirut, [5:12] celebratory fireworks as the ceasefire came into effect just a few minutes ago. [5:19] The Lebanese breathing a sigh of relief tonight, no doubt, [5:22] after weeks of relentless Israeli bombardment of Beirut, but also of southern Lebanon. [5:28] Heidi, President Trump, when he announced this truth, [5:32] also invited the Lebanese president and the Israeli prime minister to the White House in the coming weeks. [5:40] Is there consensus in Lebanon for this to happen? [5:44] What would Lebanon want to get out of these stocks if they were to happen? [5:49] In a word, no. [5:54] I mean, there is very rarely consensus in Lebanon. [5:57] That's partly due to the nature of the society and partly due to the tripartite political system here. [6:03] I mean, so we've had both the president and the prime minister welcoming this ceasefire, [6:07] the president thanking U.S. President Donald Trump for his efforts in arranging it and setting up that meeting. [6:14] But the response from Amal has so far been silent on the political implications. [6:21] What we have heard from Nabi Peri, the Speaker of Parliament, [6:24] is a statement asking people not to go back to their homes [6:27] until everybody is absolutely certain that this will hold and that it is safe. [6:32] He's asking them for patience. [6:33] But in terms of any actual comment on the talks, we haven't had that. [6:37] And Hezbollah, for their part, again, we're getting the message from them to their supporters [6:40] and people in the South to be patient, to not go home just yet. [6:44] And as part of that message, what they said, and they made a real point of noting [6:49] that there have been previous ceasefires with Israel which have not been respected. [6:54] And that was very heavily emphasised in their statement. [6:58] And so there is a sense that while many here are very hopeful that this lasts, [7:03] it was one of the conditions that many in the political establishment here, [7:08] including the Speaker of Parliament, Nabi Peri, had for any negotiations, [7:12] was that there should be a ceasefire first, that there should be no negotiations under fire. [7:17] So this is potentially clearing the path for that to actually happen. [7:21] Nida, what are the expectations in Israel about this possible meeting? [7:27] And how is Prime Minister Netanyahu selling this to the Israeli people? [7:34] Well, he's been saying since the beginning of this battle with Hezbollah [7:38] that the negotiations with the Lebanese government and the Lebanese army [7:43] should lead to them disarming Hezbollah. [7:48] And again tonight when he talked about the ceasefire, [7:51] he said that Israel did not agree to Hezbollah's demands and conditions for a ceasefire, [7:57] which is quiet for quiet, as well as withdrawing the Israeli troops from southern Lebanon. [8:03] This is seen as one way he's trying to show force, to show defiance, [8:07] to show that not everything Israel is doing is being forced on it. [8:13] But at the same time, we are looking at the situation where the Israeli government [8:16] has been threatening the Lebanese government for weeks now, [8:20] saying if they do not disarm Hezbollah, then Israel will do that. [8:25] And yet again, we've heard the repetition of these statements from military officials, [8:29] as well as previous military commanders, saying that the Israelis will indeed want that. [8:35] So what they want from the Lebanese government is one thing. [8:38] What the Lebanese government can achieve is another. [8:41] But at the same time, we are talking about the situation where [8:44] this is an announcement by President Trump. [8:47] This is something that Netanyahu cannot reject or say no to. [8:51] So what he could do is try to sell it to his audience [8:54] as something that will benefit Israelis on the long run. [8:58] He has been there before with Iran, as he's been wanting to strike more targets. [9:03] But he's been forced to listen to Trump's announcement of a ceasefire there. [9:09] Now he finds himself in another position where he needs to lobby. [9:12] He needs to talk to his audience. [9:14] He needs to convince them that this is the right way to go. [9:17] But everyone knows that this was not the ideal situation for Netanyahu. [9:21] He wanted to keep striking Hezbollah while demanding the Lebanese government [9:27] to take on the role of disarming the group. [9:30] All of these issues are expecting to affect his popularity. [9:34] We are looking at elections towards the end of this year. [9:37] And this is something that could play against Netanyahu, [9:40] especially as we've been saying about these recent polls that show [9:44] that a lot of Israelis wanted this war and this battle to continue. [9:50] Nida, thank you very much. [9:51] That's Nida Ibrahim in Ramallah and Heidi Pett in Beirut. [9:55] Thank you both. [9:57] Let's discuss all this further now with political commentator Abed Abu-Shehada, [10:02] who joins us from Jaffa in Israel. [10:04] As we are seeing and hearing in Lebanon celebrations tonight, [10:09] a more muted response as we heard from Nida there in Israel. [10:13] First of all, Abed, how do you view this ceasefire? [10:16] Can we expect a full Israeli compliance with it? [10:19] This is extremely problematic, not only for Netanyahu, [10:25] but for the Israeli public who was promised for two and a half years now, [10:30] absolute victory. [10:31] And for the Israeli public, Lebanon and Hezbollah is different. [10:35] It's fundamental. [10:36] It's been going on for the past 40 years, [10:39] especially if you listen to the residents of northern Israel, [10:44] Kiryat Shimonis, other cities. [10:46] They are extremely disappointed. [10:48] And they are, by the way, they vote for Netanyahu. [10:52] They are Likud voters. [10:54] They didn't expect it. [10:55] And they didn't expect it also that Donald Trump would announce this ceasefire. [11:00] Yesterday, the Israeli cabinet had a four-hour meeting. [11:03] We were expecting some sort of an announcement. [11:06] Nothing came out of it. [11:07] And today, out of the blue, we get it from true social from Trump. [11:12] And then two hours later, Netanyahu published the video. [11:14] And the video that was published, this is the fight over the narrative of what just happened here, [11:21] how Trump forced Israel into a ceasefire, while Hezbollah is still armed [11:28] and still very close to the northern Israeli borders. [11:32] Abed, you say Israelis, the Israeli public, is disappointed with this. [11:38] But don't they want peace with their northern neighbor? [11:40] Peace doesn't exist in the Israeli political lexicon for the past 15 years. [11:50] And we've seen it in the past two and a half years. [11:52] And not only that, we should follow up on what the political discourse in Mechazeh after the genocide. [12:00] And common sense says that any country should aspire for peace with their neighbors. [12:05] Unfortunately, the Israeli public, nobody's talking about peace. [12:09] Nobody's talking about real diplomatic negotiation. [12:13] On the contrary, if you follow up on what the Israeli defense minister, Israel Katz, [12:19] he mentioned occupying up to the Netany. [12:23] Finance minister, Betzalel Smotrich, even said that maybe the borders of Israel should be up to the Netany River. [12:31] This is unfortunate. [12:32] But it's also very childish that they even think that everything could be achieved through military force. [12:39] So what has Israel achieved realistically in this current conflict? [12:44] And can they claim any symbolic victory in Lebanon? [12:50] Absolutely not. [12:51] Because in Lebanon, it was a zero-sum game. [12:53] Unlike Iran, the Israeli public can accept the idea that the regime didn't fall. [12:57] And they understand that Iran is a much bigger country, but it's also very far away. [13:01] Lebanon, for the Israeli public, it's a trauma. [13:07] They occupied Lebanon for 19 years, and then you had the 2006 war. [13:12] Any Israeli who served the military, who was born since the 60s and forward, [13:16] has a very bad experience with Lebanon. [13:19] And by the way, before the 7th of October, the main military threat on Israel was seen as Hezbollah. [13:25] And it was—it's extremely a sensitive topic. [13:29] By the way, also, most of Israeli political and military elite, one point of their life, also fought in Lebanon. [13:36] The idea that Israel can't dismantle a military group and can't disarm it after being promised that for two and a half years. [13:46] And after Israel didn't respect the peace agreement, and if you follow up on the Israeli media, [13:51] they just kept telling the public that they've bombed another military infrastructure, [13:55] they've killed more Hezbollah militants and so on. [13:58] But at the end, even to the last minutes of the—before the ceasefire, [14:04] the Israeli cities in the north were bombed until literally the last minute. [14:11] And this projected that Hezbollah's still powerful and Israel couldn't disarm it. [14:16] So, Abed, let me ask you this. [14:17] What do you expect to happen after 10 days of ceasefire if it holds? [14:22] Is there a political goal that could outweigh any further Israeli military operation in Lebanon? [14:32] We're seeing a shift in the Israeli strategy. [14:36] And this came also after the military published about a week ago that they can't disarm Hezbollah [14:44] unless they occupy all of Lebanon and they're running low on military units [14:49] and they're running low on budgets and so on. [14:52] And they also need some sort of an agreement with the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. [14:59] So, the Israeli public shifted. [15:00] And you've seen it also with Netanyahu, before the Iran-U.S. ceasefire, [15:06] he wasn't—he didn't want to talk to the Lebanese government. [15:10] Now we're seeing something different playing out. [15:13] And it's shifting into the political Israeli strategy in the West Bank, [15:17] where there is a strict and very solid security coordination between the PA and Israel. [15:24] But Israel is still holding its land, especially in Area C. [15:27] You still have settlement. [15:29] And Israel does what it wants in Gaza, obviously, [15:32] even though the PA has relatives and political affiliation with Gaza, obviously. [15:39] And this has turned into the Israeli goal in Lebanon. [15:43] And another interesting thing, they want not only to neutralize Iran from Lebanon and Hezbollah, [15:48] but also any other country. [15:50] They also want to neutralize France in some sort of idea of turning Lebanon into a satellite state for Israel. [15:56] Abed, thank you so much for talking to us about this. [15:59] Thank you for bringing us a view there from Israel. [16:01] Abed Abu-Shehada, a political commentator, joining us from Jaffa.