Lebanon attacks could be the 'deal-breaker' in US–Iran peace talks: Analyst

[0:00] Okay, let's take a closer look at who's likely to attend those negotiations in Islamabad. [0:04] This is what we've learned from officials in Pakistan. [0:07] Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shabazz Sharif, will host the meetings. [0:10] He's going to be joined by Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, as well as Army Chief Asim Muneer. [0:15] He's widely seen as the country's most powerful security figure. [0:20] The U.S. is expected to send Vice President J.D. Vance and Jared Kushner. [0:24] He's Donald Trump's son-in-law and a former presidential advisor. [0:27] Also likely to attend are Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, as well as General Brad Cooper. [0:32] He oversees U.S. military operations in the region. [0:36] Iran's delegation will include Parliamentary Speaker Mohamed Bahar Khalibaf [0:39] and Foreign Minister Abbasarachi, who was involved in previous nuclear talks. [0:44] They're likely to be joined by the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council [0:48] and the Deputy Foreign Minister. [0:51] Moshakhin Hossein Saeed is a defence and foreign policy expert. [0:54] He's also a veteran Pakistani politician and journalist, and he's joining us from Istanbul. [1:00] So thank you very much indeed for being with us. [1:02] I want to ask you about the latest lines that we've been getting with regard to Israel and Lebanon, [1:07] the suggestion that there may be some sort of movement towards discussion, [1:12] which may lead to a form of ceasefire in Lebanon. [1:16] From Pakistan's point of view as mediator between the U.S. and Iran, [1:20] how much easier or perhaps more difficult does that make Pakistan's job [1:25] to try to work towards some sort of negotiation? [1:30] I would say that we are talking of a comprehensive peace. [1:35] We are not talking of a segmented or compartmentalised peace. [1:39] And peace means peace not just with Iran, but also in Lebanon, [1:42] which is suffering the most because of Netanyahu's bullying. [1:47] So in that regard, Pakistan is very concerned that Netanyahu be reigned in [1:53] because Lebanon could be a potential deal-breaker. [1:56] Iran has taken a strong position in it, [1:58] and there is a strong sentiment all across the Middle East [2:01] that the Lebanese are being getting caught in the crossfire, [2:04] and they're being bullied and browbeaten by a stronger neighbour [2:08] who's just taking it out on them because they can't take it out on Iran. [2:12] So Lebanon is very important, [2:13] and I think probably Trump has pressured Netanyahu [2:16] to start talking of peace talks with Lebanon [2:19] on the eve of the talks in Islamabad tomorrow. [2:23] It is worth pointing out that Benjamin Netanyahu, [2:25] in his latest statement, has said that at the moment [2:28] there is no ceasefire in Lebanon, [2:29] and Israel will continue to carry on its attacks. [2:34] Ali Hashim, our correspondent, Dehran, [2:36] was outlining or making the point that the two sides, [2:40] the US and Iran, seem extremely far apart still, [2:44] and with the two individual documents that they're working towards, [2:47] 15 points on the part of the US, 10 points on part of Iran. [2:52] Is there, as part of the staging process, if you like, [2:55] with regard to these negotiations, [2:57] is one of the intentions just to get people talking [3:00] from a single document, [3:02] so that there is one central document [3:04] that everybody can refer to? [3:07] Say that the most important thing is not just [3:10] 15 points of the US versus 10 points from the Iranian side, [3:15] because then people can become very finicky [3:17] on each comma and colon. [3:19] I think we have to look at the big picture. [3:21] Is the US and Israel really interested in peace, [3:24] or are they seeking a peace meal arrangement [3:27] as a breather for the next round? [3:29] And I think that's the core concern of Iran. [3:32] And I think the message that today we have heard from Iran [3:35] is quite positive, I would say, [3:37] from Mustafa Khamenei, the supreme leader, [3:40] who has given his full support to the peace process. [3:43] He has said that Iran will certainly participate, [3:46] and that Iran does not want a new war, [3:49] provided they are getting some minimum conditions [3:52] for lasting and durable peace. [3:54] So I think that's a very strong endorsement [3:56] from the highest levels of the Iranian leadership, [3:59] that they fully back this process, [4:01] which is being sponsored by Pakistan in Islamabad. [4:04] So the ball is now in the American and Israeli court. [4:07] How do they want it, [4:08] or are they just going to get bogged down [4:10] in these points, [4:12] or they want to look at the big picture [4:14] and try to clinch a settlement, [4:16] which is maybe close at hand, [4:18] if the intentions are sincere and clear [4:20] from Washington and Tel Aviv. [4:23] It's been very obvious the impact that the war has had [4:26] on the world's economy, [4:27] and of course the economy of the Gulf nations as well, [4:30] many of whom still have their ships [4:32] stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. [4:34] One would imagine that Gulf nations [4:36] and other countries around the world [4:38] who have been affected by this [4:39] want to have their views heard, [4:41] have their opinions heard during these talks. [4:44] What role can Pakistan play, if any, [4:47] in making sure that those considerations [4:49] are taken under advisement [4:52] and are at least heard within the talks? [4:56] I think those considerations [4:57] would also be done at two levels. [5:00] Number one, the US itself [5:02] is also representing some of those sentiments, [5:05] although it's by and large [5:06] representing only Israel, [5:07] as it did in the war. [5:09] And secondly, Pakistan, [5:10] since it has good relations, [5:12] have very close ties with GCC countries, [5:14] they'll be doing that also. [5:16] And don't forget that yesterday, [5:17] for the first time, [5:18] the Iranian foreign minister [5:20] and the Saudi foreign minister [5:21] had a telephone conversation, [5:23] the first such conversation [5:24] since the war began. [5:25] So the channel of communications [5:27] are opening up between Iran [5:29] and the Gulf countries, [5:30] and already we have seen positive vibes [5:32] coming out from Qatar and from Oman. [5:35] The leader, Amir of Qatar, [5:38] had a good conversation [5:39] with our prime minister also. [5:41] So Pakistan is in touch [5:42] with all these leaders, [5:43] and Pakistan will certainly convey [5:45] the sentiments and the perspectives [5:47] of the Gulf countries [5:48] who are, as you rightly said, [5:50] in a very serious bind [5:51] in terms of the chokehold [5:53] on the Strait of Hormuz, [5:55] because it's like economic [5:56] and energy strangulation for them. [5:59] You were referring to the relations [6:01] that Pakistan has, [6:03] which has put it in the position [6:04] of being able to carry out [6:06] these negotiations [6:07] and act as a mediator. [6:09] It has strong relations with the US. [6:11] Equally, it has strong relations [6:13] with Iran as well. [6:14] But do you think [6:15] that those relations [6:16] will be enough [6:17] to allow Pakistan [6:18] to be able to keep the talks [6:20] on track and focused? [6:24] I would say that [6:25] at some point in time, [6:26] you will also see perhaps [6:28] behind the scenes [6:29] or maybe a little bit up front, [6:31] some Chinese role also. [6:33] Chinese pushing and prodding [6:35] from the sidelines. [6:37] And the China factor [6:38] is going to be very important. [6:39] And don't forget [6:40] that Pakistan and China [6:41] are coordinating very closely. [6:43] We are on the same page. [6:44] We gave a five-point plan also. [6:47] And China is also looking forward [6:48] to welcoming Trump. [6:49] And they have told Trump, [6:51] apparently, [6:52] according to my information, [6:53] that before you enter China [6:55] on 14th and 15th of May, [6:56] there should be some sort [6:58] of a peace settlement [6:59] in the war with Iran [7:02] because they don't want [7:03] to have talks with Trump [7:04] at the same time [7:05] that Trump is having war on Iran. [7:07] So I think that China factor [7:08] is also going to be [7:09] a force multiplier for peace [7:11] through Pakistan [7:13] in this process. [7:15] I just want to draw [7:16] on your experience. [7:16] I mentioned that [7:17] you were a veteran [7:18] Pakistani politician. [7:19] You've also been a journalist [7:20] and no doubt [7:21] you have covered events [7:22] such as this. [7:23] What's your understanding [7:24] of the mechanics [7:25] of how this might work out? [7:26] We know that [7:27] when there were [7:28] nuclear talks in Geneva [7:29] that were mediated by Oman, [7:32] it was essentially [7:32] two teams sitting [7:33] in separate rooms [7:34] and the mediators [7:35] were moving backwards [7:36] and forwards [7:37] between them carrying [7:38] messages and suggestions [7:40] and so on. [7:40] Is that broadly [7:42] how it is likely [7:42] to happen in Islamabad? [7:46] Yes. [7:46] We have had this experience [7:47] before also. [7:49] As a journalist, [7:49] I remember I was in Geneva [7:51] in 1985, 86, 87. [7:53] We were having these [7:54] what is called [7:55] proximity talks. [7:56] It was the Kabul regime [7:58] and it was the Soviet Union [8:00] and Pakistan and the US side [8:02] and they were Diego Cordavez [8:04] and the UN were the mediators [8:07] at that point in time [8:08] and they were sitting [8:09] in separate rooms [8:10] not talking to each other, [8:12] not meeting each other [8:13] and communicating [8:14] through the United Nations. [8:16] So that same format [8:17] will be there. [8:18] One plus side [8:19] in this situation [8:20] for Pakistan's perspective [8:21] and Pakistan's role [8:22] is that Pakistan [8:23] has a very good [8:25] personal rapport [8:26] respectively with both sides. [8:29] For example, [8:29] with Abbas, Arachie [8:30] and Kale-Bakh. [8:31] They are very close [8:32] friends of Pakistan. [8:33] Kale-Bakh was in Pakistan [8:34] recently. [8:35] I had a long chat [8:36] with him also, [8:36] the speaker. [8:37] Abbas Arachie [8:38] was also in Pakistan. [8:39] We are good friends also. [8:40] He was deputy [8:41] with Jabhat Sarif [8:42] in the nuclear negotiations. [8:43] And Pakistan [8:44] is also a very close [8:45] friendly rapport [8:46] with Jared Kushner [8:47] and Steve Witkoff [8:49] because they have been [8:50] meeting on and off [8:51] the field marshal [8:52] as well as the prime minister [8:53] and our deputy prime minister. [8:55] So that also makes [8:55] it a difference. [8:57] We are not talking [8:57] to strangers. [8:58] We are talking [8:59] to friends on both sides [9:00] and with them [9:01] they have a good [9:02] personal friendly rapport. [9:04] So that is a [9:04] I think an additional [9:06] plus in this [9:07] current situation [9:08] which is very tense [9:09] and unpredictable [9:10] otherwise. [9:11] Mujahid Hussain Syed [9:12] is defence [9:13] and foreign policy expert [9:14] and we appreciate [9:15] you giving us [9:16] your time sir. [9:17] Thank you very much [9:17] indeed.