Latino Voters & Trump Support — Florida This Week

[0:00] First joining by Zoom is Professor Eduardo Gamarra of Florida International University. [0:05] He is the director of the Latino Public Opinion Forum, which conducted the National Latino Voter Survey. [0:12] And later with Tampa Bay Deep in a stadium debate, few know the ballpark playbook better than Mark Hyman. [0:19] He's the director of the Shirley Povich Center for Sports Journalism at the University of Maryland. [0:24] He and his students produced the docuseries Creating Camden Yards. [0:28] It's an oral history of how Baltimore pulled off one of the most influential stadium projects in baseball history. [0:37] We begin with a seismic shift in voter support. [0:40] In 2024, President Trump made history with Latino voters, winning 46 percent to his side. [0:47] That was the highest share ever for a Republican presidential candidate. [0:52] Now, a new national highly regarded survey from Florida International University suggests that much of that ground has been lost. [1:01] The poll of more than 1,000 Latino adults finds that two-thirds now disapprove of the president and believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. [1:11] Cost of living, immigration, and health care are driving their concerns. [1:15] The notable exception is the state of Florida. [1:19] Joining us via Zoom with the survey's findings is the poll's director, FIU political science professor, Eduardo Gamarra. [1:27] Thank you so much for joining us. [1:29] Pleasure to be here. Thank you. [1:31] Immigration enforcement, that is a very high topic. [1:35] What was the result of the study in terms of Latino voters nationwide versus Florida voters nationwide, the sentiments on the immigration enforcement? [1:48] They are some very interesting results. [1:51] First, Latinos want a coherent immigration policy. [1:57] They're in favor of border control. [1:59] They're even in favor of the deportation of undocumented aliens who deserve to be deported. [2:08] But at the same time, they're extraordinarily critical of ICE and, most importantly, of ICE tactics. [2:16] And then the other thing that Latinos are in favor of, and which sort of shows you the coherence of the argument, is they're in favor of granting undocumented aliens who have not committed crimes a pathway to citizenship or at least a pathway to residency. [2:35] So there's, I think, the clear message there is the need to have that immigration debate, that immigration policy debate that we have, you know, basically not had over the last 30 years. [2:48] In terms of foreign policy, how was it different between the responses of Latino voters in the rest of the country and Latino voters in the state of Florida? [2:58] Well, most of the country rejects the policy, foreign policy, and we've largely measured policy toward Latin America. [3:09] So policy toward Cuba, policy toward Venezuela, not just the extraction of Maduro, but working with the current administration there. [3:20] Most of the country rejects it. [3:22] But Florida is an outlier in Florida, and particularly among the Cuban-American population here in Miami-Dade, there is still strong support for the administration's foreign policy. [3:36] When you look at the Cuban-American vote, which you've just referred to, do you see striking differences between what could be coming in the midterm elections? [3:51] So, for example, Hispanic voters that were interviewed in other states like Arizona, Texas, New York, New Jersey, how far apart are these two groups from each other in terms of the Cuban-Americans in Florida and everyone else in the rest of the country? [4:08] Well, in the rest of the country, it appears quite clear that when you ask them a generic vote on congressional elections, there's a very significant favorability for the Democratic candidate. [4:23] And the same thing goes for a generic presidential ballot. [4:27] But in Miami in particular, the difference, it's still not all good news for the Republicans, because, for example, just in the Cuban-American vote, 53 percent are very positive on the president. [4:44] But that's down from almost 70 percent in the vote in November of 24. [4:52] So even though Cubans are still largely with the president, that level of support has fallen significantly. [5:00] Professor Gamara, thank you so much for joining us. [5:03] We will be on the lookout for the next survey that you will be doing. [5:07] That's coming up in September, October, right before the midterm, correct? [5:11] Correct. Yes, ma'am. [5:12] Thank you so much. [5:13] And now I'd like to turn to our panelists. [5:16] You both have heard the results of this national study. [5:19] What would you say this realignment of Hispanics could mean for Florida politics? [5:24] Patrick, I'll start with you. [5:25] Well, I'd call it a reset. [5:27] I mean, this is where we were before, a few years before you had Hispanics across the country, people with Mexican backgrounds and Puerto Rican backgrounds and others who were favoring the Democrats. [5:39] Miami Cuban exile community, if you'd call it that, has always been very pro-Republican. [5:46] Donald Trump's moves earlier this year with Venezuela gave these Cubans a big hope that they would do something in Cuba and gave these Venezuelans hope that something was going to change at home. [5:57] Nothing's changed dramatically in either place. [6:01] It's just gotten harder to live in Cuba and Venezuela hasn't had that much improvements. [6:05] And so, you know, I think that what you're seeing is a result of things not panning out the way everybody thought they would. [6:14] And, of course, with immigration, everybody always thinks the guy down the street's going to get deported, not me. [6:19] And I think with the aggressive way that immigration happened, they started to realize, no, these are kids going to school, these are people who have long-term jobs, these are families, and this is not what they thought this was going to be. [6:32] Akash, do you think that, looking at the numbers, do you think that that Cuban-American stronghold that everyone is talking about will remain, or that certain things can shift by the time we get to the midterms? [6:44] No, I think things will get better in Florida, especially with the Cuban-American community. [6:47] I think the governor has actually reached out to a lot of Latinos and appointed them into higher positions, and you're seeing a little bit of that. [6:54] And, of course, this is the president's background, and the saying goes, as Florida goes, so does the country. [6:57] So I think things will shift as we get to the midterms. [7:00] Thank you for that. [7:01] As we talk about voting, a few important Florida dates to keep in mind. [7:05] If you need to register to vote or change your party affiliation ahead of the August primary, the deadline to do so is July the 20th. [7:14] To vote in November's general election, the deadline is October the 5th.