Labour has 'no coherent plan' for country, says former Prime Minister Tony Blair — BBC Radio 4 Today

[0:00] It's possible we're about to have the seventh prime minister in 10 years. [0:03] A serious country can't do that to itself. [0:06] And what is bizarre about the present situation [0:09] is that we're all talking about politics [0:12] when the key thing is to talk about policy. [0:14] If you don't decide what your policy direction is, [0:17] there's no point in changing the leader. [0:19] And so the whole essence of the essay is to say [0:21] it should be policy first, politics second. [0:24] So the Labour Party, you think, is asking itself the wrong question? [0:28] Yes, because, look, what I say is there are two major changes [0:34] going on in the world today. [0:35] One's geopolitical, leave that to one side. [0:38] The other is this technology revolution, [0:40] which I say is the 21st century equivalent of the Industrial Revolution. [0:44] It's going to change absolutely everything. [0:46] You've got a refashioned policy and the way government works around it. [0:50] And it's not even part of the debate. [0:51] So you can have a different personality occupying number 10. [0:55] But unless you have a policy agenda, [0:57] which makes sense of the way the world's changing, [1:00] then you're not going to be any further forward as a country. [1:03] And you'll find the country keeps shuffling the deck with prime ministers. [1:06] OK, let's try this one. [1:07] That didn't work. [1:08] Let's try that one. [1:09] And we'll carry on doing that [1:10] unless we have a serious debate about how the country is changing. [1:14] Hold on a second. [1:14] People might say, look, Labour was elected on a promise of change. [1:18] It got a vast majority on the basis of that promise. [1:22] And here you are arguing that when Labour ministers came to office, [1:27] they should have ripped up their promise to protect workers with more rights, [1:30] to increase the minimum wage, to turn our energy supply green and clean. [1:37] Blair comes along and says, no, no, forget all that. [1:39] Now you're in office. [1:40] That's a daft idea. [1:41] Yeah, no, it's a really good point. [1:42] But here's the problem. [1:44] If this AI revolution is what I say it is, [1:48] and if we need higher levels of growth as a country, which we obviously do, [1:53] then even if you put these things in a manifesto, and let's be clear, [1:58] I don't think Labour won the last election [2:00] because people read the manifesto and said, this is what we want. [2:04] I think people thought that conservators have behaved completely unacceptably. [2:07] And to Keir Starmer's great credit, the Labour Party was an acceptable alternative. [2:13] Now, when it came in, it saw the state of the inheritance. [2:15] I think at that point, of course, it would be difficult. [2:18] Everything in politics is difficult. [2:20] But if I'd been there, I'd say, look, all of these commitments, [2:23] they may be very worthwhile. [2:25] They may be proper commitments in easy times. [2:27] But in these hard times, we've got to prioritise growth. [2:31] We've got to prioritise support for the business sector. [2:33] And this artificial intelligence revolution, we've got to grasp it, [2:37] both its opportunities and its risks, with both hands. [2:40] And so I think, yes, it would have been tough, [2:43] but I think you could have explained to the country why it was necessary. [2:46] And there are more tough things that you propose in this essay. [2:49] You talk about fundamental reform of welfare. [2:53] Saying what to voters? [2:55] Saying that, for example, we're about to end up in a situation [2:59] where just before the pandemic, it was only five or six years ago, [3:02] we had 2.8 million people, working age people, [3:05] on disability and capacity benefits. [3:08] We're going to have, by the end of this decade, [3:11] almost five million people. [3:13] You can't carry on. [3:16] You can't carry on in a situation where you're going to end up, [3:19] if you're not careful, spending more on incapacity [3:21] and disability benefits than you are on defence. [3:24] And then I know, again, all of these changes are really difficult, [3:28] which is why I think whoever takes them on [3:30] is going to have a really tough time. [3:33] But it's like the triple lock on pensions. [3:35] You look at the figures and you look at where Britain's going to be [3:40] in 20, 30 years' time that continues with this policy. [3:43] It's not affordable. [3:45] And at some point, you've got to be able to stand up [3:48] and have an honest debate with the public, [3:50] which is to say, look, ultimately, [3:52] we're probably taxing people too much, [3:55] spending too much, borrowing too much at the moment. [3:57] If we carry on like this, with these large increases [4:01] in incapacity benefit, with the triple lock on pensions, [4:05] we're going to create a situation where economically [4:07] we're not able to grow because we've put such a weight [4:10] affecting growth on the back of our economy. [4:13] And there's yet more of these difficult choices. [4:16] You talk on health, of a fundamental realignment, [4:19] getting rid of old shibboleths. [4:21] Now, most people reading that will say, [4:22] if not privatisation of the health service, [4:26] much greater involvement of the private sector. [4:28] Is that right? [4:29] Yeah, it is right. [4:30] Because let me tell you why. [4:32] The whole of healthcare is under... [4:34] This is part of this artificial intelligence revolution. [4:37] It's going to revolutionise drug discovery. [4:39] It allows you, if you use data properly inside the health service, [4:43] to engage in a completely different way [4:45] of organising your healthcare system. [4:47] People are already, if they can afford to, [4:50] for example, these weight loss drugs, right? [4:52] We've got a programme that makes them available [4:55] to quite a small number of people on the NHS. [4:57] Outside of the NHS, people who can afford to [5:00] are already buying them. [5:02] So it's not that you're... [5:04] It's not this whole debate about [5:06] are you privatising, inverted commas, the NHS? [5:09] But when I was in office, we improved the NHS [5:11] and we doubled the spending on it. [5:13] But it's a different world today. [5:15] And you've got both the opportunity and the responsibility [5:18] to do healthcare completely differently. [5:20] Well, we've got the agenda now. [5:21] Let's turn a little bit to the leadership. [5:23] And people might think, listening to this, [5:26] well, we know who advocates all this. [5:28] It's Kemi Badenoch. [5:28] It's the leader of the Conservative Party. [5:30] She says, let's get rid of net zero targets. [5:33] She says, let's get rid of business taxes [5:36] that are doing damage. [5:37] She says pretty much everything you've just said. [5:40] And indeed, Rishi Sunak was in that chair [5:41] just minutes ago saying, yeah, wholeheartedly endorse the lot. [5:44] Yeah, he does wholeheartedly endorse the lot, by the way, [5:47] including the artificial intelligence revolution, [5:50] including things like digital ID and so on, [5:52] which we can come to if you want. [5:54] But, you see, I'm not asking the question about, [5:59] is it Tory? [6:00] Is it reform? [6:00] Is it Greens? [6:01] Is it Labour? [6:01] I'm just saying, OK, take a step back, [6:05] analyse the world. [6:05] Where do we go? [6:07] And I don't really... [6:09] I think part of the problem with the way we have this debate [6:12] is that it always does start, and usually end with politics. [6:15] You started a sentence there and you stopped. [6:17] I don't really... [6:18] I thought you were going to say, [6:19] I don't really care. [6:21] Well, I was going to say, [6:22] I was going to say, [6:22] I don't really care whether it's left or right [6:24] in a traditional sense. [6:25] You don't really care whether it's Labour anymore, [6:27] do you? [6:27] In that sense, as long as the policies are right. [6:29] I don't think Labour's got something... [6:32] I'm not tribal in the sense that I think [6:33] one political party's going to have [6:35] the exclusive capability of deciding the right answer. [6:39] And I guess, you know, [6:41] the interesting thing when you go out of politics, [6:44] and this is where I think the most interesting politics today [6:46] comes from people outside of politics, [6:48] because when you step out of politics [6:50] and you start seeing how the world is changing, [6:54] it's not really about traditional left and right politics. [6:58] In fact, I think that gets in the way [6:59] a lot of the time of just asking the question, [7:01] OK, look at the world. [7:03] What's... [7:04] What do we... [7:04] How do we make sense of it? [7:05] How do we keep Britain strong? [7:06] Its economy strong? [7:07] How do we build its military and so on? [7:09] Now, central to that, [7:10] I do want to come to the leadership arguments, [7:12] because you do address the individuals who are involved. [7:14] I'll come to that in a second. [7:15] But central to your argument, [7:17] it seems that underpinning it all [7:18] is that technological revolution. [7:21] And you say in your essay, [7:22] let's end the hostility to technology. [7:24] Let's embrace it and the change it can bring about. [7:27] Now, this programme every day, though, [7:29] is filled by people scared of technology. [7:33] They want government to protect their children. [7:35] They want government to protect artists' copyright. [7:39] Even the Pope has talked about AI being disarmed. [7:44] It's not realistic, is it, [7:45] for you to come along and say, [7:46] look, guys, it's the way of the world. [7:48] You say, it is what's happening. [7:50] No, but I'm not saying that. [7:51] What I'm saying is it is the biggest single change [7:56] you're going to have, right? [7:57] It is the 21st century equivalent [7:59] of the Industrial Revolution. [8:00] Now, was the Industrial Revolution all good? [8:02] No. [8:03] You look at the conditions of the workers [8:04] in the Industrial Revolution. [8:05] You look at the displacement of people [8:07] from the countryside. [8:08] There were huge problems [8:09] with the Industrial Revolution. [8:10] There are going to be massive dangers [8:13] with this revolution. [8:15] So I'm not saying, [8:16] despite what people think, [8:17] I'm not saying you embrace the opportunities, [8:19] there aren't any risks. [8:20] It's general purpose technology. [8:23] There are huge opportunities. [8:24] There are huge risks. [8:26] I mean, this latest invention [8:27] from the anthropic company, Mythos, right? [8:31] That is, I mean, [8:32] most people probably don't even know what that is. [8:34] That is itself revolutionary. [8:36] You're going to be able to have people [8:38] sitting in their front room, [8:39] potentially hacking into the infrastructure [8:41] of the country. [8:42] So I am not, and social media [8:44] and its impact on young people, [8:45] yes, of course. [8:47] But look at the opportunities as well [8:49] to do government and public services [8:51] completely differently. [8:52] One of the most interesting things, [8:53] I think, in this essay [8:54] is your description of leadership. [8:55] And you say you've studied Donald Trump. [8:57] You make clear that you're not advocating [8:59] the way he does things, [9:00] but you describe him as a man [9:01] who, when he sees a wall, [9:03] drives through it at speed. [9:04] People get injured, [9:05] bits of the car fall off, [9:07] but they're injured. [9:08] You say he's got attitude, [9:09] a tribe, a project. [9:12] Is that the sort of leadership [9:13] you think we need now? [9:15] Well, I think what I say [9:16] is the challenge of democracy [9:17] is advocacy. [9:19] It's getting big things done. [9:21] And therefore, [9:23] you do need to understand, [9:24] if you're ever going to defeat [9:25] this populism, [9:26] you need to understand [9:27] its essential appeal. [9:28] And I think its essential appeal [9:30] is we're going to make [9:32] the thing happen, right? [9:34] Everyone else is arguing about, [9:35] well, it's very difficult. [9:37] I'm not sure we can do this or that. [9:39] The populist appeal [9:41] is I'm going to make it happen. [9:43] And therefore, [9:44] what I'm saying, [9:46] discussing the radical centre, [9:47] which is where I think [9:48] the best politics come from, [9:50] is that's got to be radical. [9:52] The centre's not going to be [9:53] the place of managing [9:54] the status quo. [9:56] It's got to be the place [9:57] of making big change, [9:58] but it's based on policy first, [10:00] politics second. [10:01] And many people hearing you say that [10:03] say, well, we know what radical is. [10:05] It's going back into the EU, [10:08] where Streeting has just said it [10:09] as one of the leading [10:10] leadership candidates. [10:12] And yet in this essay, [10:13] you go, forget it. [10:14] It's not going to happen. [10:15] I don't say it's not going to happen. [10:16] What I say is you don't start there. [10:19] And look, [10:19] no one was more passionate [10:21] against Brexit than me. [10:22] And I think the results [10:24] were both predictable and predicted. [10:26] But if Britain's going to go back [10:28] into a structured relationship [10:29] with Europe, [10:30] it's got to do so from strength. [10:32] We're not strong at the moment. [10:34] And it's going to be a negotiation. [10:36] And in particular, [10:37] if I'm right about [10:38] the technology revolution, [10:40] we've got to make sure [10:41] Europe is not moving [10:42] in a direction, [10:44] and presently, [10:45] by the way, [10:45] it is, [10:46] which is hostile [10:47] to that technology revolution. [10:49] Now, I think Europe [10:49] may well change its position [10:51] around that, [10:51] but it's got to be [10:52] a negotiation. [10:54] It's not a, [10:54] just as it wasn't the answer [10:55] to Britain's problems [10:56] in 2016, [10:58] reversing it isn't the answer [10:59] to Britain's problems [11:00] in 2026. [11:01] I remain of the view [11:02] that, of course, [11:03] we should have [11:04] a structured relationship [11:05] with our own continent, [11:06] but you can't just [11:08] click your fingers [11:09] and have it. [11:09] So, you have the joy, [11:11] as you say, [11:11] of now being, [11:12] in inverted commas, [11:13] outside politics, [11:15] but Labour MPs don't. [11:17] They have to make a choice. [11:19] Keep the leader, [11:20] get rid of the leader, [11:21] choose Andy Burnham, [11:22] choose West Streeting, [11:24] or someone else. [11:25] What's your advice? [11:26] My advice is [11:27] choose your direction first, [11:29] and make sure that [11:30] before you have [11:30] any leadership change, [11:32] you make all the candidates [11:33] set out in detail [11:34] their policy. [11:35] What the government's got right, [11:36] what it's got wrong, [11:37] what we should do differently. [11:38] And we've seen some of that, [11:39] and you're pretty scathing [11:40] about it, aren't you? [11:41] You say that Burnham and Street [11:43] are both getting it wrong [11:44] in the promises [11:45] they've made so far. [11:46] Well, I just, look, [11:48] I just think [11:49] when you look at [11:50] the analysis, [11:51] for example, [11:52] and by the way, [11:53] I hope Andy [11:54] Winsmaker-Field, [11:56] I think he's a great guy, [11:58] I want to see him [11:58] in Parliament, [11:59] but when he does this thing [12:00] about 40 years [12:01] of wasted, [12:04] I don't know what it is, [12:05] we'd be going [12:06] the wrong direction. [12:07] 40 years of neoliberalism, [12:08] he says. [12:09] Right. [12:09] OK, so, I mean, [12:11] we're 2026, [12:12] let's go back to 1986. [12:15] Well, we assume [12:15] he doesn't mean [12:16] the first seven years [12:16] of Margaret Thatcher, [12:17] right? [12:18] So, back to the 70s? [12:22] I mean, OK, [12:23] and what, [12:24] nothing good [12:24] happened in that period [12:26] of Thatcher [12:27] with the business community [12:28] or new Labour? [12:29] I don't think [12:30] he really means that, [12:31] but what I'm saying, [12:32] if you're going [12:32] to change leader, [12:35] you've really got [12:35] to force people [12:36] to say where they stand, [12:37] because otherwise [12:38] you'll be, [12:39] in what I think [12:40] was always a problem [12:41] for Keir, [12:41] and I'll be very honest [12:42] about this, [12:43] and I like him [12:44] and I wish him well, [12:45] but when we switched [12:47] from that Corbyn agenda, [12:50] there wasn't enough [12:51] explanation, [12:52] not as to why [12:53] Corbyn was an election loser, [12:54] that was pretty obvious, [12:55] but why the whole agenda [12:57] was wrong. [12:58] You have to explain [12:59] to people [12:59] why it's wrong [13:01] if you want to lead [13:02] the party in the future [13:03] in a coherent way. [13:04] You see, [13:05] I think some people [13:05] listening to this, [13:06] particularly in the Labour Party, [13:08] will say, [13:09] yes, [13:09] we do want leadership [13:10] that has a mission [13:12] and an agenda. [13:13] It is protecting [13:14] working people, [13:16] and what Burnham [13:16] calls neoliberalism [13:18] has protected the rich. [13:20] And they look at you [13:21] and they say, [13:22] look, [13:22] Tony Blair, [13:23] he flies around the world, [13:25] he's with the tech bros, [13:26] he's staying in smart hotels [13:27] and on private jets, [13:29] he understands [13:29] the have-yachts [13:30] and not the have-nots. [13:32] Yeah, [13:32] I mean, [13:32] that's the easiest thing [13:34] for people to say [13:34] so that they don't have [13:35] to deal with the argument. [13:36] But by the way, [13:37] when I was in office, [13:39] we had a strong economy, [13:41] we had improving [13:42] public services, [13:43] you know, [13:44] we had improving [13:44] results in education, [13:46] we reduced poverty, [13:47] both for pensioners [13:48] and for children. [13:49] You know, [13:49] we were a progressive government, [13:50] we weren't a neoliberal government, [13:51] we doubled the spending [13:52] on the health service, [13:53] for heaven's sake, [13:54] and introduced [13:54] the minimum wage. [13:56] So people know [13:57] that you spent some time [13:58] during the Corbyn years [13:59] thinking whether it's time [14:00] to launch a brand new [14:02] political party, [14:03] a kind of movement [14:05] like Emmanuel's Macron. [14:07] This essay reads to me [14:09] like a man who wishes [14:09] he'd done it. [14:11] No, [14:11] I don't wish I'd done it, [14:12] but I think a lot of the issues [14:13] that were raised at the time [14:14] are still there [14:15] and with us. [14:16] And look, [14:17] my whole belief [14:17] about the Labour Party, [14:18] it's had 120 years [14:20] of history. [14:22] It's been in power [14:23] really for about [14:24] a quarter of that time. [14:26] And the reason for that [14:28] is what I always call [14:29] the birth defect [14:30] of the Labour Party, [14:31] when you separated [14:32] the liberal progressive side [14:34] from the Labour side. [14:35] And New Labour was an attempt [14:36] to fuse those two things [14:38] back together. [14:38] And that's why we won [14:39] successive elections. [14:41] The trouble is since then, [14:42] we've moved away from that. [14:44] And you do have, [14:45] I think, [14:46] this unrepresented centre [14:47] in British politics. [14:48] And I think it's basically [14:49] a supply problem [14:50] and not a demand problem. [14:52] There are a couple of other [14:52] things they say about you [14:53] and you know they'll be saying [14:54] today, [14:55] now that you have re-entered [14:56] the political fray. [14:58] Not just is he a friend [14:59] of the rich, [15:00] but his institute, [15:01] which has, what, [15:01] a thousand staff around the world [15:03] now, [15:03] of the Tony Blair Institute, [15:04] gets an awful lot of money [15:06] from a tech bro, [15:07] from Larry Ellison. [15:08] This is a man [15:10] who is working on behalf [15:11] of someone who has an interest. [15:13] The reason we are very happy [15:16] to work with people like Larry [15:18] is because we share [15:20] the same view [15:21] about the importance [15:22] of this technology revolution. [15:23] It doesn't mean to say [15:24] we share the same politics [15:25] on everything. [15:26] And the institute, [15:27] we work in almost 50 countries [15:30] around the world today [15:31] and therefore we see [15:33] what's happening [15:33] in these countries [15:35] and the importance [15:36] of technology [15:37] to their development. [15:39] So of course, [15:39] you know, [15:40] it's like when I argue [15:41] against the net zero, [15:42] people say, [15:43] oh well, [15:43] but they do work [15:44] in the Middle East [15:45] so it's all because [15:46] of the, you know, [15:47] the oil producing countries. [15:49] It's honestly to do with [15:51] looking at the world [15:52] and asking what [15:53] the right answer is. [15:53] And the other thing [15:54] I noticed the Guardian [15:55] have picked up [15:56] is that they say [15:57] that you want [15:58] the Labour Party [15:59] of the country [15:59] to get closer [16:00] to Donald Trump [16:01] or like him. [16:02] Now you praised his [16:03] Gaza plan [16:04] as bold and intelligent. [16:07] I think people listening [16:08] who are generous [16:09] to Donald Trump [16:10] would say [16:11] the problem with that [16:12] it's all talk, [16:13] isn't it? [16:14] What happened [16:15] to the Board of Peace [16:16] that we thought [16:17] at one stage [16:18] you might chair in Gaza? [16:20] We've got terrible politics. [16:21] And I mean, [16:22] the Guardian, [16:23] you've got to love them. [16:25] I always used to say [16:25] when I was Prime Minister [16:26] that the most, [16:28] the greatest source [16:29] of election losing advice [16:30] was always from the Guardian. [16:31] I'm not saying [16:32] the Labour Party [16:33] should love Donald Trump, [16:34] get close to Donald Trump. [16:36] I'm simply saying [16:36] the American relationship [16:37] matters to Britain. [16:38] And on Gaza? [16:39] And on Gaza. [16:40] Look, [16:40] we put together a plan [16:41] that ended the war. [16:43] Now, [16:43] at the moment [16:44] you've still got [16:45] some fighting going on. [16:46] You've still got [16:47] a dire situation [16:48] for the people. [16:49] Actually, [16:50] this next week [16:51] we will have [16:52] further negotiations [16:53] with Hamas [16:54] because, [16:54] you know, [16:55] we need to move [16:56] this new government [16:56] into Gaza. [16:57] And we need Hamas [16:59] to agree [17:00] that this government [17:00] should be in control [17:02] of Gaza. [17:02] So it's a very tricky, [17:05] difficult situation. [17:06] But we have, [17:08] if the plan [17:08] is allowed to work, [17:10] it will give [17:11] Gazan people [17:12] a fresh start [17:13] with a new [17:13] Palestinian government [17:14] and a large amount [17:16] of funding behind it. [17:17] Let's be clear, [17:17] you're not on [17:18] the Board of Peace, [17:19] let alone chair again, [17:19] but you've just said we. [17:21] You're involved. [17:22] Now there's a lot [17:22] of misunderstanding [17:23] about this. [17:23] The Board of Peace [17:24] itself is sitting leaders. [17:26] Right, [17:27] underneath that [17:27] is an executive board [17:28] and I'm on that. [17:29] And therefore it is we [17:31] when it comes to Gaza. [17:32] Now you're in another we [17:34] which is the trade union [17:35] of former prime ministers. [17:37] We've had two of them [17:38] on the programme today. [17:39] I want to end by asking you [17:40] if you could advise [17:41] whoever is the next prime minister [17:43] after it's over. [17:45] They're in office, [17:46] there's an envelope [17:47] in front of them [17:47] and you've got a line [17:49] or two of advice [17:50] you can give [17:51] to the next prime minister [17:52] of this country. [17:53] What would it be? [17:55] Well, [17:55] first I'd start [17:56] with an expression [17:56] of sympathy [17:57] and solidarity [17:58] but the advice [18:00] I would give [18:01] is get the best people [18:02] in from wherever [18:04] they are [18:04] who understand the world, [18:06] who understand [18:06] how it's changing [18:07] and who can give you [18:08] a proper, [18:09] worked out, [18:10] coherent strategy [18:11] for putting the country [18:12] back on its feet.