Keynote Speech by Jeffrey Sachs for the Hiroshima International Conference on Peace & Sustainability

[00:00:00] Thanks to Hiroshima University and the Network for Education and Research on Peace for this [00:00:19] kind invitation and especially for the wonderful work that you do. We need more than ever a network [00:00:28] for education and research on peace. We are failing the challenge of peace on the planet [00:00:36] and the situation is dire and far more dire than I think we would have believed possible [00:00:46] when this conference was set. When the conference was set, I was excited to speak about the sustainable [00:00:56] development goals and the sustainability challenge, but I did not dream that we would be in the midst of a [00:01:06] horrific war in Europe and an extraordinary danger, the largest war in Europe since World War II and with [00:01:18] the risks of confrontation between nuclear powers. This is a very frightening time. I was just [00:01:33] looking at the doomsday clock of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists which was established after the [00:01:44] horrors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki to give warning to the world about the dangers of a [00:01:55] nuclear war in the nuclear war. And we are, as you know, according to the doomsday clock, the closest to [00:02:05] midnight in the history of the post-World War II period. And that clock puts us at 100 seconds to midnight, [00:02:19] less than two minutes. But I dare say that the Bulletin will almost surely move the hands of the clock even [00:02:30] closer to midnight in with the events of recent days. The overwhelming fact of our time [00:02:43] is the failure of global cooperation. In fact, we are reverting to a period of big power, [00:02:53] a conflict of alliances that are not creating stability in the world but are creating more and more danger [00:03:06] of outright war and of outright world war even, which in a nuclear age could be the end of everything. And [00:03:21] the cascade of failures to cooperate on the most basic points of common interest is the shocking fact of [00:03:33] our time. I want to discuss briefly six areas of global failure of cooperation, all of them a threat to [00:03:47] survival on this planet, all of them a mark of profound failure of diplomacy, all of them a signal to us that we [00:03:59] must push our governments to sanity, all governments. This isn't just one or another. This is a view of the world [00:04:11] that is increasingly threatening our survival because our governments are not working effectively together [00:04:20] and are not living according to the goals and the standards that we have set [00:04:28] for decency and for peace in the UN system. [00:04:32] John W. I'll start with Ukraine. Of course, a tragedy, a catastrophe, a drama as we speak, [00:04:43] with the major civilian urban centers being shelled with already a million refugees on the move. And there is [00:04:56] no way to reduce the horrors that Russia has unleashed in recent days or to minimize those horrors. But [00:05:13] we also need to understand the background of this conflict and how we went from a period 30 years ago [00:05:25] where there was a new cooperation, an end of a Cold War that had repeatedly threatened the world to what [00:05:36] seemed like an open invitation for creating a new global security structure that could create an era of peace. [00:05:51] John W. I was involved with the Soviet Union in its final years working with the economic team of Mikhail Gorbachev. [00:06:02] I was involved with the new government of Boris Yeltsin in the newly independent Russia [00:06:12] in 1992. I advised briefly President Kuchma of Ukraine in 1993 and 1994. So I know, I remember personally, [00:06:27] that this was a period in which peace could have been created for generations to come. [00:06:38] John W. What happened? Well, I put principal responsibility of failure on the United States. [00:06:46] The United States did not [00:06:50] live up to the possibilities of that time. [00:06:55] John W. The Soviet Union was an economic collapse. [00:06:58] John W. Russia as a newly independent state and the other 14 [00:07:04] newly independent states of the former Soviet Union were an economic crisis. [00:07:09] John W. But when help was needed from the outside. [00:07:13] John W. Sympathy, empathy, financial assistance, [00:07:18] John W. It was not forthcoming from the United States or from US allies. [00:07:26] John W. The crisis in Russia economically was very deep. [00:07:32] The society was deeply dislocated. [00:07:35] John W. It's at times like that with such dislocation [00:07:40] John W. that. [00:07:41] John W. help. [00:07:43] John W. and global cooperation is so essential. [00:07:47] John W. to demonstrate that there is a way forward. [00:07:51] John W. of cooperation and of mutual understanding. [00:07:56] John W. But I'm afraid that the US government at the time viewed the period as a victory. [00:08:03] John W. As a US victory, where many in the United States government [00:08:10] and foreign policy establishment believed that now was the time that the US could do what it wants, [00:08:16] because Russia was too weak to oppose the United States. [00:08:21] John W. One of the things that the US did, contrary to its promise [00:08:28] John W. To the Soviet Union made in 1990 was to expand the NATO military alliance eastward. [00:08:37] John W. And if you have doubts about whether such promises were made. [00:08:42] John W. Careful historians have demonstrated unequivocally [00:08:48] that the United States, Germany and others promised. [00:08:53] John W. To the Soviet Union leadership that with the unification of Germany, [00:09:00] there would be no NATO expansion to the east. [00:09:04] John W. And they lied they cheated by the mid 1990s. [00:09:10] John W. President Clinton began to expand the US military alliance into central and eastern Europe. [00:09:19] John W. Then President Bush came into office and extended the alliance into the Baltic states. [00:09:28] John W. Bush also unilaterally withdrew from the anti ballistic missile treaty in 2002 [00:09:37] to Russia's great consternation. [00:09:39] John W. NATO bombed a Russian ally in Europe in 1999 bombing Serbia. [00:09:49] John W. And showing that NATO was [00:09:52] John W. Going to deploy its power without consultation [00:09:59] John W. With Russia and potentially as a direct threat to Russia. [00:10:05] John W. Then came the Afghan invasion by the United States in 2001. [00:10:11] John W. The Iraq war by the United States in 2003. [00:10:16] John W. The invitation to Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO over vociferous Russian objections in 2008. [00:10:29] John W. The US attempt to overthrow Bashar al-Assad in Syria in 2011. [00:10:37] John W. The NATO bombing of Libya in 2011. [00:10:43] John W. And the US assistance to overthrow a pro-Russian government in Ukraine in 2014. [00:10:52] John W. I mention all of this because all of these steps by the United States, in my opinion, were provocative. [00:11:00] John W. They gave Putin the notion that NATO would encircle Russia step by step. [00:11:12] John W. And in the past year Putin made demands that NATO not expand into Ukraine. [00:11:22] John W. The United States ignored those demands. [00:11:25] John W. It said that Ukraine has the choice to join NATO, which translated means the US has the right to expand [00:11:36] John W. into Ukraine, because that's what it means. [00:11:40] John W. It means that a US military alliance could expand right up against Russia's border. [00:11:48] John W. So while I don't mean in any way to exculpate or exonerate [00:11:57] John W. Putin and Russia for crimes against humanity being committed in Ukraine. [00:12:04] John W. I do mean to say that there are antecedent causes that contributed to the current disaster. [00:12:12] John W. And one of those causes of great importance was the profound arrogance of the United States. [00:12:20] John W. In not listening to the security concerns of the Soviet Union and of Russia and mocking and ignoring those security concerns. [00:12:35] John W. For 30 years, in fact, until now. [00:12:40] John W. And now we are paying a dreadful price, but it's the Ukrainian people who are paying this dreadful price. [00:12:49] John W. And we are not out of escalation. [00:12:53] John W. We are not out of danger of direct confrontation. [00:12:57] John W. And I put the failure of diplomacy of the United States as a major part of this current crisis. [00:13:07] John W. It's not popular to say. [00:13:09] John W. It is not remembered in the United States. [00:13:15] John W. It's not carried by the mainstream media. [00:13:18] John W. But there is some important US responsibility in this disaster. [00:13:24] John W. Let me turn to a second area more briefly. [00:13:29] John W. The COVID pandemic. [00:13:32] John W. We now have more than 15 million dead around the world. [00:13:39] John W. From this pandemic. [00:13:42] John W. And this horrific outcome. [00:13:45] John W. Is also in part a reflection of the failure of global cooperation. [00:13:54] John W. Because when this pandemic broke out. [00:13:58] John W. The chance to contain it. [00:14:01] John W. The chance to stop it from being a fulminant worldwide pandemic. [00:14:08] John W. Depended on cooperation across governments. [00:14:14] John W. To stop the transmission of the disease across borders. [00:14:17] John W. To synchronize control efforts. [00:14:21] John W. To share vital commodity supplies of PPE testing equipment. [00:14:28] John W. Medicines hospital equipment. [00:14:32] John W. And when the vaccines were developed. [00:14:36] John W. To ensure that there would be. [00:14:38] John W. Access of all countries to these vaccines. [00:14:43] John W. None of this cooperation occurred. [00:14:47] John W. This pandemic has been fought. [00:14:52] John W. Almost entirely. [00:14:54] John W. On a country by country basis. [00:14:57] John W. Some countries taking strong actions. [00:15:01] John W. Others taking almost no actions at all. [00:15:04] John W. But with very little cooperation by countries. [00:15:10] John W. Again, the United States played a terrible role in this. [00:15:15] John W. During the first year of the pandemic. [00:15:18] John W. Donald Trump was president. [00:15:20] John W. And Donald Trump was more interested in his reelection. [00:15:25] John W. And in attacking China. [00:15:27] John W. Than he was in global cooperation. [00:15:31] John W. And part of his election campaign. [00:15:34] John W. Was to attack China and to attack the world health organization. [00:15:39] John W. As allegedly being in the hands of China. [00:15:43] John W. And thereby weakening the world's central institution. [00:15:48] John W. That should have taken the role of helping coordination around the world. [00:15:55] John W. We lost that chance. [00:15:58] John W. And until today. [00:16:00] John W. It is the case. [00:16:02] John W. That US, Chinese, Russian, European Union, Indian, and British officials. [00:16:11] John W. The countries that produce the vaccines. [00:16:15] John W. Have not sat down to work together. [00:16:20] John W. On how to ensure universal vaccine coverage. [00:16:25] John W. It is shocking to me. [00:16:28] John W. The failure to have technical cooperation. [00:16:32] John W. On an issue that is of common global need. [00:16:37] John W. When we help countries in Africa, for example, to become immunized. [00:16:44] John W. That's not a matter of generosity alone or even primarily. [00:16:51] John W. It is a matter of common global interest. [00:16:54] John W. That all parts of the world need to be protected against this virus so that new variants [00:17:03] are not emerging and are not spreading around the world. [00:17:08] John W. In addition, of course, to the humanitarian case to ensure [00:17:14] that all parts of the world have the protection that they need. [00:17:18] John W. The pandemic has been an illustration of a world that fails to have even the minimal levels [00:17:28] of cooperation. [00:17:29] John W. Again, I put the United States as a central part of this global failure of diplomacy. [00:17:39] John W. The third area of cooperation or failure of cooperation that I would like to [00:17:45] John W. Note is the US China relationship, and this is obviously of direct concern immediate concern [00:17:56] for Japan as well and for East Asia, but it's of concern for the whole world. [00:18:02] John W. This heightening of tensions between the US and China [00:18:08] John W. is often attributed, again, to China's provocations. [00:18:14] John W. But I think that this is too simple an explanation. [00:18:19] John W. What we have here is an escalation of tensions [00:18:24] because the major powers, the two most powerful countries in the world, the US and China, [00:18:31] John W. are not speaking with each other. [00:18:33] John W. Now I've watched this deterioration of relations between the US and China [00:18:40] during the last seven to eight years. [00:18:43] John W. And once again, I attribute a significant part of this [00:18:48] John W. not to China's actions, but to American actions. [00:18:53] John W. The United States has a very hard time accepting China's economic and technological success, [00:19:03] John W. which is a human success as well as a national success, because what China succeeded in doing, [00:19:16] John W. Using, by the way, lessons and strategies that Japan had developed already back to the Meiji restoration [00:19:25] and then again after World War II and with the decade of development under Prime Minister Ikeda, [00:19:32] when Japanese income doubled within the decade, [00:19:38] John W. China followed in that path with 40 years of rapid economic development [00:19:45] that brought a billion people out of poverty. [00:19:48] John W. And we should be hailing this achievement as a great success of China [00:19:54] and as a great success for humanity. [00:19:57] John W. But instead, in the United States, it came to be viewed as a direct threat [00:20:05] John W. to American hegemony to American predominance because the United States is not satisfied [00:20:14] John W. with being one power among many. The United States insists on being the most powerful. [00:20:21] And so the rise of China was viewed as a threat, not as a success. [00:20:25] John W. And already several years ago, the United States began a campaign [00:20:31] John W. To try to contain China. To try to smash China's success in technology. [00:20:38] John W. To try to break Chinese companies like Huawei. [00:20:42] John W. By making charges that were, in my opinion, absolutely unverified. [00:20:50] John W. About Huawei being security risks and so forth. [00:20:55] John W. But the idea was that the United States took measures to try to stop China's technological advance. [00:21:06] John W. This year, under President Biden, those measures were further intensified [00:21:13] John W. To actually stop the export of the advanced microchips needed, for example, for 5G systems. [00:21:22] John W. Well, this is not conducive to peace. [00:21:25] John W. This is a kind of economic warfare that is extraordinarily dangerous. [00:21:32] John W. And in my opinion, the United States also has acted with further provocation by [00:21:40] John W. undermining the basic agreement of the one China policy [00:21:47] that dates back to the normalization of relations between the US and China in the 1970s. [00:21:54] John W. The Biden administration is taking every opportunity [00:21:59] to feature its close ties with Taiwan. [00:22:03] John W. As a matter of course. [00:22:06] John W. Asking for Taiwan's participation in this place and in this institution. [00:22:12] John W. But this is direct provocation. [00:22:14] John W. And unnecessary provocation to China. [00:22:19] John W. And then we wonder why the tensions are rising. [00:22:25] John W. And I believe that we need to stop this kind of provocation [00:22:33] if we are going to have any kind of safety. [00:22:36] John W. Now, with the conflict in Ukraine, we're looking to China. [00:22:41] John W. Will China join the US sanctions? [00:22:43] John W. If not, will sanction China, goes the story in our press. [00:22:49] John W. How many fronts of confrontation do we really want to provoke right now? [00:22:55] John W. And that, I think, is a huge question for the safety of the world. [00:23:02] John W. The fourth area of failed cooperation is climate change. [00:23:07] John W. This year is the 30th anniversary [00:23:12] John W. of the signing of the UN framework convention on climate change. [00:23:16] John W. That convention called for stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases [00:23:27] John W. to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system. [00:23:33] John W. To stabilize the greenhouse gas concentrations means to stop emissions [00:23:43] of the greenhouse gases or to bring them to very low levels. [00:23:47] John W. But not only have we failed. [00:23:51] John W. To bring the emissions down to near zero. [00:23:55] John W. We have not even stopped the rise of emissions from year to year. [00:24:01] John W. In other words, the [00:24:04] John W. carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane emissions [00:24:11] John W. annually continue to rise 30 years after signing the UN framework convention. [00:24:19] John W. Of course, as you will recall. [00:24:22] John W. The Kyoto agreement reached in 1997 in top three. [00:24:29] John W. Of the framework convention on climate change in Kyoto. [00:24:34] John W. was never accepted by the United States. [00:24:38] John W. It walked away from the Kyoto agreement. [00:24:42] John W. And from 1997, it took 18 years to reach a new agreement. [00:24:48] John W. In Paris. [00:24:50] John W. And then immediately after that. [00:24:53] John W. President trump was elected and he walked out of the Paris agreement. [00:25:00] John W. So again, a massive colossal failure of cooperation. [00:25:07] John W. And now we have warming already pushing the earth's temperature [00:25:13] to the highest levels in more than 100,000 years. [00:25:18] John W. To higher temperatures than during the entire period of civilization. [00:25:24] John W. And to an accelerated rate of warming now above 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade. [00:25:33] John W. Meaning that we are very likely to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold. [00:25:41] John W. Within the next few years. [00:25:44] John W. This is a danger that we are seeing played out in droughts, in floods, in heat waves, [00:25:50] in rising sea levels, in increased storm activity, in mega forest fires all over the world. [00:25:59] John W. And the IPCC report [00:26:02] John W. Just a few days ago highlights that we are seeing these unprecedented climate [00:26:10] John W. Damages occurring with increasing intensity and increasing frequency. [00:26:16] And it warns us that when we breach the 1.5 degrees C level, we could have a cascade of tipping points hit. [00:26:25] John W. So this is a fourth area of failure. [00:26:29] John W. Again, I have to look at my own country, the United States. [00:26:33] The US Senate, since ratifying the UN Framework Convention, has not [00:26:39] John W. voted one major climate change piece of legislation in 30 years. [00:26:49] It's a travesty. [00:26:50] It is because of the corruption of US politics. [00:26:54] The power of the coal, oil and gas lobby. [00:26:59] The fact that our Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee is chaired by a senator who owns two coal companies. [00:27:09] John W. And so, once again, we have vested interests and national interests taking [00:27:17] John W. predominance over the global interest. [00:27:21] The fifth area that I want to mention is development finance. [00:27:27] I can illustrate that by the pandemic itself. [00:27:31] John W. Since the pandemic hit the high income world has borrowed a tremendous amount. [00:27:40] Through government deficits. [00:27:42] John W. In order to finance emergency outlays, perhaps $20 trillion of extra fiscal spending. [00:27:51] But the poor countries have had to cut spending because the poor countries don't have access to finance. [00:28:01] John W. in order to finance. [00:28:08] John W. And the United States under two percent. [00:28:09] John W. Europe near zero interest rates. [00:28:13] John W. But what about countries like Egypt or Pakistan or Ghana or Nigeria. [00:28:21] John W. No access to borrowing on terms that are remotely like those of the rich world. [00:28:30] John W. So we have had a widening of inequality where the rich world was able to. [00:28:37] John W. Extend fiscal spending to provide some cushion for the population and to revive the economies. [00:28:46] Whereas the poorest countries in the world have been laid low by this pandemic. [00:28:51] John W. And are unable to find the financing that they need for safety nets. [00:28:58] John W. Much less to achieve sustainable development. [00:29:03] John W. We have 17 sustainable development goals. [00:29:07] We committed to a global partnership to achieve those goals. [00:29:12] But it is demonstrable that the international financial system has failed. [00:29:18] The low income countries and the lower middle income countries. [00:29:22] John W. By failing to provide the flow of finance. [00:29:27] John W. Needed by governments principally. [00:29:31] John W. To achieve even basic standards such as universal access to education universal access to. [00:29:39] John W. Health care universal access to basic energy services, including electrification universal access to safe water and sanitation. [00:29:52] John W. And while this. [00:29:53] John W. Unequal access to finance is painfully clear. [00:30:00] John W. The rich countries don't want to take it on. [00:30:04] John W. And so again dislocation. [00:30:08] John W. Poverty rising inequality rising tensions. [00:30:14] John W. Failure to fulfill even basic promises. [00:30:18] John W. To provide climate finance which was supposed to reach 100 billion dollars for the developing countries, but did not come close to that. [00:30:27] John W. And again, I can tell you the United States pays no attention to this in our domestic politics. [00:30:36] John W. And the final area, the sixth area where cooperation is failing is the one that is. [00:30:46] John W. Closest to the meaning of this conference and the leadership of Hiroshima university and the network for education and research on peace and that is cooperation on nuclear disarmament. [00:31:03] John W. We are in the midst not only of rising tensions between the nuclear powers but the United States has walked out of nuclear treaties. [00:31:16] John W. And is engaged in a new round of massive spending on new generations of nuclear arms and we know that China is building its nuclear arsenal. [00:31:34] John W. Though its warheads are much fewer in number than in the United States and in Russia. [00:31:42] John W. Russia is modernizing its nuclear warheads and nuclear proliferation has proceeded a pace in the last 20 years because we failed to. [00:31:55] John W. Honor agreements reached and to pursue agreements with North Korea, we had an agreement with Iran, which maybe will come back into force, but if so at the last moment, because even the news today said that Iran is close to. [00:32:14] John W. Having enough enhanced uranium to start building nuclear weapons and this because after reaching a treaty with Iran again, the United States walked out of what he had agreed and showed itself again to be a wholly unreliable. [00:32:36] John W. counterpart in such international agreements if you add the number of agreements that the United States has walked out of or never ratified in recent years, whether it is walking out of the. [00:32:55] John W. A. A. B. A. B. M treaty walking out of the world health organization at the height of the pandemic walking out of the Paris agreement walking out of the Iran agreement. [00:33:10] John W. All of these demonstrate that my country fails the most basic test of international cooperation. [00:33:22] John W. Why, because it arrogantly seeks. [00:33:26] John W. preeminence globally, rather than partnership and the true global rule of law. [00:33:34] John W. So. [00:33:36] John W. We are. [00:33:38] John W. 100 seconds to midnight. [00:33:41] John W. or perhaps even closer right now. [00:33:44] John W. And we are more interconnected than ever. [00:33:50] John W. Our fates are completely interconnected on this planet. [00:33:56] John W. For every challenge that I talked about Ukraine and NATO enlargement the pandemic and vaccine access US China relations. [00:34:10] John W. Decarbonization of the energy system. [00:34:14] John W. Decarbonization of the energy system. [00:34:14] John W. Shifting finance. [00:34:16] John W. To enable developing countries to meet the sustainable development goals. [00:34:21] John W. And pursuing the path of nuclear disarmament. [00:34:24] John W. Under the nuclear non proliferation treaty after all, we are bound by international law. [00:34:31] John W. To pursue nuclear disarmament all of those areas of cooperation. [00:34:38] John W. Are not only feasible. [00:34:41] John W. They are not only within reach. [00:34:44] John W. They are not only practical. [00:34:47] John W. They are not only affordable. [00:34:49] John W. They would save us a fortune. [00:34:51] John W. Worldwide so that we could put our resources to truly important human purposes. [00:34:59] John W. What is missing is the global ethos of cooperation. [00:35:06] John W. The alliance system of the United States is not a system of peace. [00:35:11] John W. The attempt to create the quad to oppose China is not a method of reaching understanding and cooperation in East Asia. [00:35:24] John W. The enlargement of NATO is not a trajectory of safety in the world. [00:35:30] John W. We need the safety of the United Nations Charter. [00:35:38] John W. We need the safety of mutual respect and the safety of all human rights observed under the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. [00:35:52] John W. These are our methods of survival at this point. [00:35:58] John W. And I want to thank the NERPS and the University of Hiroshima for helping to lead the efforts for peace. [00:36:08] John W. Let's work together to push that second hand in those minutes away from midnight. [00:36:14] John W. In the weeks and months and years ahead. [00:36:18] John W. Thank you for letting me be with you on this important conference. [00:36:23] I'm deeply honored. [00:36:24] John W. Thank you very much.