Jobs Report Doesn't Mean Fed Should Hike Rates, Hassett Argues

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Let's continue the conversation now. Welcome to our television and radio audiences around the world. I'm Dani Berger. I'm sitting alongside Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent Michael McKee. And joining us now, I'm pleased to say, from Washington, is White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Director Hassett, great to see you this morning. We're speaking just after a blowout's jobs report. We saw, again, the figure beat all estimates at 165. Also, on the heels of an election where people are worried about inflation, those things put together, Kevin, does it make sense to you that this is a Fed that needs to be hiking rates in December? [00:00:39] Kevin Hassett: Well, I think let's look back at the week because it was really one of the better jobs weeks that I've ever seen because we had initial claims for unemployment insurance go down even from about the lowest levels since World War II. We had the jobs opening status say there are a lot of jobs openings and also that the quit rate went up, which means that people are so confident that if they leave their job, they're going to get a better job, that they're even quitting. And now we have a jobs report that was way more than double expectation, and the upper divisions were ginormous for the last couple of months. And so what we've got is a job market that's hitting at all cylinders. And what I believe, and I think what the White House believes, is that Kevin Warsh had it right when he gave a speech about growth like this, where he said that if you have supply-side growth, then it's not necessarily inflationary. And if you have demand-side growth, then, of course, it is. And since we've done so much to increase supply by having expensing for capital goods and so on, we've got 120,000 in this jobs report, it's now 120,000 people building new factories, that's a big positive supply shock, isn't necessarily inflationary. And what Kevin has said publicly is that he's going to watch the inflation data and watch it like a hawk and respond more to that than to growth when we're seeing such high growth that's potentially supply shock-driven and productivity-driven. You saw the productivity this week was also through the room. [00:02:04] Speaker 3: Well, Kevin, the numbers you cited for this week and the number we got today that you saw last night, did you go into the Oval Office and tell the president, look, forget about the idea of rate cuts, just not going to happen? [00:02:18] Kevin Hassett: I didn't talk about rate cuts with him, but I did spend almost 45 minutes with him last night. His spirits are high. I got a veto hat, which I guess is his new hat, and we talked about a lot of things. But the fact is that he's concerned that the positive momentum that we built is something that could be upended by Democrats now that they've taken more power. But I think that they're going to have a real hard time repealing all the great policies that have created this strong job market because the president will veto it. And we have a huge amount of executive authority to do other things like deregulation to make sure that the momentum keeps going. [00:02:56] Speaker 1: Well, Director Hassett, I'm happy you went there because that's where I wanted to go. This is an American electorate that voted on Tuesday that clearly they are unhappy with something. All of the exit polls showed number one issue over and over again is inflation. Is this a White House that's prepared to change its economic policy, shift anything in order to address those voter concerns? [00:03:17] Kevin Hassett: Well, the White House, of course, you know, you can listen to the voter concerns, but as an economist, you also have to look at the data. And the data are very strong on growth and inflation has been decelerating. And so I think that the policies that we've been pursuing, the supply side policies, give us prosperity, great job creation without creating Phillips curve effects that would run away inflation. And that contrasts with what happened under President Biden, where they basically helicopter dropped money down to people after the covid crisis was over. And that's like a classic example of what creates the inflation and the inflation that you saw. So I don't think that we think that we have a policy change that we need to play at. I think that the policies are working. The growth is there. Inflation is coming down. But it's coming down from a high level. Remember, that was like 22 percent total inflation under President Biden. And so if you go up 22 percent and then you get it down to going up 3 percent, say, that it's still going up. And so the frustration that people feel is real. But we're making great progress. [00:04:25] Speaker 3: Well, the inflation rate was lower when President Trump took office than it is right now. So is it any surprise that people voted the way they did on Tuesday? Do you think if they'd seen these jobs numbers, it would have made any difference? [00:04:40] Kevin Hassett: You know, I'm not a political scientist, but I could say that the top line inflation numbers are, of course, being driven by energy prices, which are related to, you know, the situation in Iran that the president says he has no regrets about. And if you look at what happened prior to the last CPI, then core inflation was back to around the Fed's target for the previous three months. And so I think that we've succeeded at creating growth and helping inflation go down. [00:05:09] Speaker 1: You know, Director Hassett, I would say some in your party don't necessarily agree with that. And I would point to what the Senator Ted Cruz put on an X the other day, saying that this is very real pain for real Americans. And too many Republican politicians seem like they don't understand or they didn't care. Food is too high. Gas is too high. Diesel is too high. Insurance is too high. Life is too high. Tariffs have made everything expensive. And the war in Iran has dragged on for too long. This is Republican Ted Cruz saying that tariffs are a problem for inflation and the war is a problem for inflation. Director Hassett, does the White House, will the White House do anything different on both those accounts to reduce their contribution to inflation? Or are you expecting more pushback from the likes of Republican senators who themselves say that they are heeding a call from voters? [00:05:58] Kevin Hassett: Look, the bottom line is that the energy price spike is real and it in fact inflation numbers like up and down. So airfares go up and things like that. But absent that, the policies that we're pursuing are supply side policies that put downward pressure on inflation. Food prices, we've done an enormous amount to lower food prices. So if you look at, it used to be the only thing that you guys would talk about when I came out of the air was egg prices. They're way down. Beef prices are down four out of the last five months. But again, if you have a big spike and then you start making progress to get the rate of increase to go down, then it doesn't mean that prices have gone down. And I think that that's one reason why people still feel those frustrations. [00:06:43] Speaker 3: Does the Senate flip to Democratic control in January increase the urgency at the White House to get Fed Governor Lisa Cook off the Fed? Because come January, you probably won't be able to get anybody confirmed to replace her. [00:06:59] Kevin Hassett: Look, the president's team, the White House counsel's team has set up an orderly, fair process, has been negotiating collegially with Governor Cook and her team to schedule a meeting where we can put all the evidence on the table and then prepare a report for the president on where things stand. And there's nothing that's changing that schedule at all that I'm aware of. [00:07:23] Speaker 3: Well, forgive me if you're asking this, but the president continues to insist that she be fired. And you're one of the three that will recommend whether she should be or not. Can people believe there is any possibility that you would tell Mr. Trump there is no case here, he should drop it? Because the whole thing sort of sounds like the Queen of Hearts, sentence first, trial after. [00:07:45] Kevin Hassett: No, it's completely not. It's completely not. We're going to put the evidence on the table and then we're going to have an evidence-based report that we present to the president based on basically what happens when we go over the facts with the governor and her people. And I would not have agreed to do this if I hadn't absolute confidence that I get to vote with my conscience when I write the report and even dissent if I disagree with the others on the commission. [00:08:14] Speaker 3: Well, if you suggest to him that she not be fired, will he accept that? [00:08:21] Kevin Hassett: He'll read the report and he'll decide what's the next. But our job is to create a fair process that puts all the facts on the table so that he can make a rational decision. [00:08:31] Speaker 1: Director Hassett, thank you so much for joining us. By the way, have you had to rethink how much you smile after Bill Murray? That was pretty bruising the other week. [00:08:41] Kevin Hassett: Oh, that was fantastic. And, you know, I think that I had so many different ways that I could have teased him about it, but I still think that when I made him tell me that it was my dog, not his dog, that that was one of my better, most fun moments in memories. Bill Murray's a big star, and getting to be on TV with him was really, really a joy. [00:09:01] Speaker 1: Well, maybe lucky for you today, we have no actors to grill you on questions. Director Hassett, thank you so much for joining us. White House National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett. Thank you. Thank you.