Israel’s overstretched army threatens Netanyahu’s ‘Greater Israel’ strategy: Analysis

[0:00] Debris from an intercepted Iranian missile attack has injured at least five Israelis near Tel Aviv. [0:05] Fragments from a cluster missile also damaged water infrastructure in Bnei Brak district. [0:11] A number of vehicles were damaged and several areas of Tel Aviv have reportedly been hit. [0:16] Let's speak to Abed Abushaydeh, a political commentator joining us now from Jaffa. [0:22] Thank you and good morning to you. [0:24] What sort of a day would you say, or last 24 hours, has it been in Israel when it comes to those missile attacks? [0:32] Good morning. I think yesterday everybody was surprised because Iranian media kept saying that the Iranian missile capability [0:40] has been going down in the last few days, especially that we have seen a decrease in number of missiles, [0:46] especially to the center. And yesterday was extremely difficult throughout the day and throughout the night, [0:53] which brings more and more. [0:55] I think it was really to ask serious questions concerning all the promises they've been hearing since the beginning of the war, [1:01] concerning, first off, the goals of the war and now concerning the Iranian missile capability. [1:08] So I think it was extremely difficult, especially today. [1:11] Yesterday and today are the Jewish Passover holiday. [1:15] They didn't get to celebrate the holiday. [1:17] And now many of the citizens here couldn't even get a good night's sleep. [1:22] All right. And what do you think? [1:25] The reaction will be from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that's the Israeli prime minister, in terms of the Trump speech. [1:33] There was no mention of Israel within this speech, but we know that they started this war together. [1:40] Israelis are extremely concerned from two reasons. [1:42] First of all, the objective of the war concerning the Iranian regime wasn't achieved. [1:48] The other thing, and this is what worries them the most, is Lebanon. [1:52] Any talks concerning the ceasefire. [1:56] The Iranians are talking about it. [1:57] They're talking about ceasefire that includes also Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Israel is moving forward toward the Litani River. [2:06] And they are extremely worried that the Americans, just as we've seen last year, will force a ceasefire also with Lebanon. [2:16] While by the end of the year, Netanyahu has election. [2:19] He promised for the past two and a half years an absolute victory. [2:23] And now when the Israelis are going to the parliament, they're going to the parliament. [2:27] They're saying that Hamas is still in Gaza, Hezbollah is still in Lebanon, and he didn't manage to change the regime in Iran. [2:34] This is extremely not good for Netanyahu. [2:37] And as we've been seeing, there are more threats on Israel today than there were before the 7th of October. [2:46] And even though Israel has used massive force and power and destruction in Gaza and Lebanon and Syria, they need more military power now. [2:56] They need more military power. [2:56] They need more men to join the military. [2:59] And there are obviously also internal problems concerning the Haredi Jews, who are still refusing to enlist their young men into the military. [3:09] That actually does bring me to the next point, which is that the Israeli military is massively overstretched, overstretched rather. [3:17] They've been at war for a few years now. [3:19] Since October 7, 2023, they fought in Gaza, they fought with Hezbollah, and now they're fighting. [3:26] In Lebanon, can you give us sort of an understanding of why they're so overstretched? [3:31] I think the best example came when the Israeli military chief of staff, Yael Zamir, answered back to the Israeli Knesset members who sent him letters concerning the decision he made over the Netzach Yehuda battalion who attacked the CNN reporters last week in the West Bank, [3:53] who asked the chief of staff to allow... [3:57] to allow the same soldiers who attacked the CNN reporters to go back to the military. [4:03] His answer was, instead of focusing on this, it's better to push for policies that will get more men enlisted into the military, more soldiers to the military. [4:13] And this shows the problem that the military has with the political elite concerning the overstretching of the Israeli military. [4:24] The political elite wants to expand the... [4:27] the war to stay in northern Lebanon and northern Syria, while the military has an extreme problem with not enough soldiers to keep all of these occupations happening. [4:38] So how does that marry up with the fact, and, you know, this is no hidden secret, that Israel, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have talked about a greater Israel? [4:45] They have, they call it the so-called buffer zones, areas in Syria, areas now in Lebanon, which is effectively an invasion in southern Lebanon, [4:55] more land in Gaza. [4:57] Gaza as well, expansion in the West Bank. [5:00] How will they have the resources to do that, if that's the plan, to have a greater Israel? [5:07] Some things are physically impossible. [5:12] Both Israel geography and demography is not in its favor. [5:17] The number of Israelis that could take part in all of this military expeditions is limited to a couple of hundred thousand. [5:28] Last week, the... [5:29] the chief of staff, Yael Zamir, said that he doesn't have enough power to maintain the lawlessness that the settlers are making in the West Bank for itself. [5:39] Now they have also problems in Syria and occupations in Syria and in Lebanon. [5:44] Some things are not possible, but I do think that the whole purpose of this whole discourse over greater Israel is primarily Gaza and the West Bank. [5:54] Israel can't keep the occupation, as long as there's resistance, obviously, in Lebanon and in Syria. [5:59] But they are focusing more and more on the West Bank, on Area C. [6:04] Other than that, when you take the number of the population of the Israelis and you take into consideration that there is an economy and that people can stay at war all the time for many years to come, [6:15] I don't think that's sustainable, but I do think they are pushing to change the reality on the ground in the West Bank and in the... [6:23] especially in Area C. [6:24] And they're using Lebanon and Syria as cards to allow the... [6:27] Right. [6:28] Right. [6:28] Right. [6:29] ...regions that they want to normalize their relations with to allow them to push their policies in the West Bank and to go back to the borders in Lebanon and Syria. [6:41] Okay, thank you very much for your thoughts there, Ahmed Abou-Shahadeh, a political commentator in Jaffa.