Israel's 'Gaza model' for Lebanon

[0:00] Welcome to the Global News Podcast on YouTube. [0:03] Hello, I'm Oliver Conway. [0:04] And today we're joined by the BBC's Hugo Bechega in the Lebanese capital, Beirut. [0:10] And Hugo, Israel's been hitting targets there for the best part of a month. [0:15] Now it says it wants to occupy the south of the country. [0:19] What are its plans exactly? [0:21] Yeah, Oliver, so what we're hearing from the Israeli officials [0:23] is that they plan to create this security buffer zone in the south. [0:28] In other words, this is an invasion that is happening [0:30] and that this could lead to an occupation of parts of Lebanon. [0:37] So what we're seeing here is that, let's go back to what happened after 2024. [0:42] Those villages and communities along the border, they were completely destroyed, empty. [0:48] Residents, you know, hadn't been allowed to go back to their homes. [0:52] And I think we're seeing an expansion now of this so-called buffer zone. [0:57] So. [0:58] The Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz saying that Israel will keep security control [1:04] over the area between the border and the Litani River. [1:08] This is a river that is 30 kilometers, 20 miles from the border. [1:12] So this is a huge area of the country. [1:15] Is Israel planning to occupy, you know, this entire region of Lebanon? [1:22] We still don't know. [1:23] But I think it is clear here that what the Israelis are planning to do [1:28] is to create this area in the south that is clear of any kind of presence [1:33] as this invasion continues. [1:35] And we could see some kind of occupation of parts of Lebanon well beyond this conflict. [1:42] Yeah. [1:42] In order to create that buffer zone, Israel Katz says, and I quote, [1:46] all homes in Lebanese villages near the border will be destroyed [1:49] in accordance with the Rafah and Beit Hanun model in Gaza. [1:54] What does that mean for the people living there? [1:56] Yeah, I think this is very concerning, [1:58] because we're seeing similar tactics that were employed in Gaza [2:03] being now employed in Lebanon, [2:05] which is the destruction of villages, the destruction of communities. [2:10] More than a million people have been displaced across Lebanon [2:13] because of this conflict. [2:15] And I've met many families, displaced families, [2:19] and there is the real concern here that their houses may be destroyed [2:24] and that because of the situation in those villages and those communities, [2:28] that even after the end of the war, and we don't know when this is going to be, [2:33] that they're not going to be allowed to return to those homes. [2:38] And obviously, there is the fear that this could lead to a major humanitarian crisis in this country. [2:45] And, you know, Lebanon has suffered so much in recent years. [2:48] If you look at what's happened in the last six years, [2:52] there was the pandemic, there was the massive economic crisis, [2:55] there was the port explosion here in Beirut. [2:58] War in 2024, and now another war. [3:01] So, obviously, there's a lot of suffering here in this country, [3:06] and there is this real concern among these displaced families, [3:11] particularly the families that have come from those villages in the south of the country [3:15] that, again, they may never be able to go back to those villages. [3:19] Yeah, as you say, a million already displaced, [3:23] according to the Lebanese authorities. [3:25] Israel is saying something like 600,000 people, [3:28] who live in the south, won't be able to return until Israel is safe, [3:33] which could be a very long time. [3:34] What is day-to-day life like for the people forced to flee? [3:40] It is a very difficult situation, [3:43] and the government simply doesn't have the ability to provide basic services, [3:48] to provide, you know, what those people need in terms of supplies, [3:55] in terms of, you know, basic needs, really. [3:59] They're relying on human rights organizations, on, you know, external help. [4:04] And we've met some families living here in Beirut, [4:08] and they were talking about, you know, a very difficult situation, [4:11] especially for the children, because, obviously, schools have been closed, [4:14] schools have been turned into shelters, [4:16] and entire families living in improvised tents, [4:21] in places like squares and public spaces. [4:25] So it is a very difficult situation for those families, [4:29] and, you know, as the conflict continues, [4:31] they simply don't know when or if they'll be able to go back home. [4:36] Now, as well as the people who have been displaced, [4:38] more than 1,000 people have been killed, according to Lebanon. [4:43] Those include UN peacekeepers, at least one Lebanese soldier, [4:48] and three journalists, and you went to their funeral. [4:52] Exactly, and this really gives you an idea of the fear [4:56] that people across the country have of not knowing [4:59] when the next Israeli airstrike will hit. [5:04] You know, in many of those attacks, the Israeli military issues warnings, [5:10] giving people some time to leave those areas. [5:13] But in some of those cases, particularly in suspected targeted assassinations, [5:19] there's no warning. [5:19] So, obviously, this has created fear, panic, and, obviously, anger across this country. [5:27] So I went to the funeral on Sunday of the 3, [5:29] journalists who were killed in what seems to be a targeted Israeli airstrike [5:34] on at least one of them, Ali Shaeb, [5:37] who worked for the Al-Manar television station, [5:40] which is owned by Hezbollah. [5:42] And the killing of these three journalists, [5:45] Fatima Fortuny and also Mohamed Fortuny, [5:48] from the Al-Mayadeen television station, [5:50] sparked a lot of anger in this country, [5:53] a lot of commotion as well, [5:55] and criticism and condemnation of Israel, [5:58] because, you know, [5:59] the Lebanese president, Joseph Fon, [6:03] described this as a blatant crime, [6:05] saying the journalists had been targeted. [6:07] And, again, the Israeli military said that [6:11] two of those journalists, Mohamed Fortuny and Ali Shaeb, [6:15] had involvement with Hezbollah. [6:17] The IDF said Ali Shaeb was an intelligence operative within the group, [6:24] even though there has been no evidence to support the claims [6:26] that they had military involvement. [6:29] Hezbollah is an intelligence operative within the organization, [6:33] and there's been a lot of anger here, [6:35] a strong reaction in this country following those attacks. [6:38] Now, this is a difficult situation for the Lebanese government. [6:42] This latest bout of fighting was sparked by Hezbollah firing rockets into Israel [6:48] in response to the killing of its sponsor in Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei. [6:53] But Hezbollah is separate from the government, [6:55] sometimes described as a state within a state. [6:58] How popular is Hezbollah? [6:59] Is it? [7:00] And is this violence turning people against it? [7:04] Yeah, it is a very complex situation [7:06] because you have this organization, Hezbollah, [7:09] which is not only a militia, you know, [7:12] I think outside Lebanon, people, you know, [7:15] know of Hezbollah as being this powerful armed organization. [7:20] But here in Lebanon, Hezbollah is a political party. [7:24] It has representation in parliament, representation in the government. [7:28] You know, the labor minister, the health minister, [7:30] come from Hezbollah and Hezbollah came under a lot of criticism [7:36] in the very beginning of the war, including from some of its supporters [7:42] who blamed Hezbollah for dragging Lebanon into another conflict with Israel. [7:48] I think that situation has changed. [7:50] I think we're back now to those old divisions and old positions. [7:53] Those who oppose Hezbollah remain critical of Hezbollah, [7:56] saying that Hezbollah is more interesting. [7:59] They are interested in defending its own positions [8:01] and defending the interests of Iran. [8:03] And those who support Hezbollah continue to be, you know, [8:09] in favor of the group, support the group. [8:11] And many people, you know, have been telling me that they see Hezbollah [8:16] as being the only force, the only group in this country [8:19] capable of defending them and protecting them. [8:22] So it does feel that we're back to the old situation here. [8:26] And what makes everything, you know, much more difficult, [8:29] much more difficult for the Lebanese authorities [8:31] is that they simply don't have the means to disarm Hezbollah by force. [8:36] And this has been, you know, something that's been rejected [8:39] by the Lebanese authorities even before this war to use force against Hezbollah. [8:44] And, you know, the president and many others here have been saying [8:47] that disarming Hezbollah will only happen with time, [8:51] but through a diplomatic process, through negotiations, [8:55] that it is going to be impossible to disarm Hezbollah, [8:58] or even to try to destroy Hezbollah, if you like, [9:01] by bombs or by military incursions. [9:05] And I think one of the problems here is that Hezbollah was created [9:10] during the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. [9:13] And a lot of people are saying that what is going to happen [9:16] is that this is going only to embolden Hezbollah [9:19] and reinforce Hezbollah's position that their presence is needed [9:24] to fight the Israeli occupation of parts of Lebanon. [9:28] You mentioned the occupation of Lebanon in the 80s and 90s. [9:32] Israel was there for 18 years before it was forced out. [9:37] Are we seeing history repeating itself? [9:40] It is very difficult, and I cannot see at the moment [9:43] any kind of appetite in Israel for some kind of long-term, [9:48] massive Israeli presence and occupation of parts of Lebanon, [9:53] because that would come, you know, with a huge, huge cost [9:57] for the Israelis. [9:59] What is very likely is that Israel will try to seize some territory [10:04] and occupy some territory that it may consider strategic. [10:09] Remember, before the war, Israel was already occupying [10:13] five locations along the border. [10:16] So I think we're going to see an expansion of this Israeli presence [10:21] and occupation of parts of Lebanon. [10:23] But I think it is very difficult to see, you know, [10:26] a situation in which Israel will be sending thousands, [10:30] if not tens of thousands of troops to occupy parts of Lebanon. [10:34] And again, I think, you know, there's only one way to try to come up [10:39] with a solution to this crisis, and that is through diplomacy. [10:42] But right now we're not seeing, you know, any talks. [10:45] The Lebanese government has, you know, made an offer [10:49] to engage in negotiations with the Israelis. [10:52] But I think Israel sees this as a window of opportunity [10:55] to really try to degrade Hezbollah further, [10:59] to destroy whatever infrastructure capabilities Hezbollah has [11:04] near the border, to then try to engage in some kind of diplomacy here. [11:09] Hugo, thank you. [11:11] Hugo Beshega in the Lebanese capital, Beirut. [11:14] If you'd like to hear more from the Global News podcast, [11:17] click the link below. [11:18] Thanks for watching.