Israeli-Lebanese talks more symbolic than substantive, former State Dept. official says

[0:00] For more on the wider war, we turn now to Barbara Leaf. She was assistant secretary of state for [0:05] Near Eastern affairs during the Biden administration. She's now a senior [0:09] international policy adviser at the law firm Arnold and Porter. Barbara Leaf, [0:13] welcome back to the news hour. Let's start with that meeting today here in Washington [0:17] between the Israeli ambassador and Lebanese ambassador hosted by U.S. Secretary of State [0:22] Marco Rubio. How significant was that meeting today between these two parties? [0:27] Well, on the one hand, it is significant, but it's significant more in symbolic terms than in [0:35] substantive terms. I found it interesting that Secretary Rubio said at the front end of the [0:41] meeting that he emphasized that it was this was the start of a process, not just a single meeting. [0:48] That was not even the framing that the U.S. accorded the Islamabad talks over the weekend. [0:56] But, in fact, this is a very fragile start. [0:59] Well, you know, Lebanese officials have been asking for this kind of a meeting for a while. [1:02] What's your understanding of why this happened now? [1:05] Well, I think, look, in fact, it was an important way to off-ramp a very volatile issue for the talks [1:14] over the weekend in Islamabad. In fact, leading from Wednesday all the way through to Saturday, [1:21] when the two sides actually finally sat down, there was a great deal of volatility about the question [1:28] of whether the ceasefire would hold and whether the Iranians would, in fact, show up because of [1:34] this dispute that went on for days over whether or not Lebanon was supposed to have been agreed to be [1:41] part of the ceasefire region, if you will. And the U.S. eventually took the position alongside Israel [1:48] that it was not part of the deal. Although, strangely, the Pakistani foreign minister said that it was. [1:56] Well, you know, Israel says that it continues to fight the war in Lebanon, that it has a stated goal [2:01] of disarming Hezbollah, right, of removing them from any position of power and influence there. [2:06] The Israeli ambassador even said after the meeting that he called it a crushing victory over Hezbollah. [2:11] What about for Lebanese officials? What is the goal for them here? [2:17] Well, look, it's true that President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have been asking [2:25] since early March, since the onset of the war and the devastating campaign, Israeli campaign in Lebanon, [2:32] they had been asking for direct negotiations or discussions with Israel hosted by the U.S. [2:38] or supported by the U.S. and Israel had waved that off. But given this friction point that Lebanon, [2:46] that the campaign in Lebanon was providing to the main game, the effort to bring an end to the war, [2:54] negotiate an end to the war with Iran, the U.S. did essentially lean on the Israelis for this off-ramp. [3:02] And you see in the statement that was issued sort of the variance of goals, if you will. [3:11] The ambassador, Lebanese ambassador, had no room to negotiate. She simply was there to show up, [3:18] to show the goodwill of the Lebanese government. But she has absolutely no leeway to negotiate over [3:26] the terms of disarmament. And indeed, disarmament is really a political task. It's not going to be [3:33] achieved from the air or through ground incursions. Well, help us understand that tension a little bit [3:40] more, because we've seen the Lebanese president in the past make very clear, at least rhetorically, [3:45] that Hezbollah is not the state, that they believe that the armed force should only reside with the [3:50] state, not with a militia group, a militant group like Hezbollah. What is that tension on the ground? [3:56] Why has it been so difficult for them to contain or control or disarm Hezbollah? [4:01] The tension on the ground is pretty simple. Hezbollah has overwhelming means to coerce, to threaten, [4:09] and actually to kill those who would stand in its way, whether they are in uniform as the Lebanese [4:14] armed forces or they are politicians. And they have a... Hezbollah has a very bloody track record [4:20] of tracking people down and their families and killing them, punishing them through coercive means. [4:28] The task for the Lebanese government is really, as I said, a political one. And it would eventually be [4:35] also going in and taking arms. But in the first instance, [4:40] the Lebanese government has to corral the political chieftains of the Lebanese political camp, [4:49] spectrum. And most importantly, the speaker of the parliament, Nabi Beri, who as head of Amal, [4:59] Amal is the non-Hezbollah Shia party that is closely aligned and supportive of Hezbollah. And Nabi Beri has [5:08] been key to Hezbollah's ability to regenerate financially and otherwise. And so the Lebanese [5:16] government has its job to do, but it will need help from the U.S. and it will need help of a different [5:22] kind from Israel. [5:23] In the minute or so we have left, what can and should be, in your view, [5:27] the U.S. role in all of this moving forward? [5:29] Nabi Beri, U.S. President of the United States, Well, look, the thing that concerns me is that [5:34] every day of this really ferocious military assault on Hezbollah targets accrues more and [5:43] more civilian casualties. And it undermines the standing of the Lebanese government. They are made [5:49] to look more and weaker and weaker and unable to do anything. [5:55] The other thing is, if the U.S. is really serious about this being the start of a process, [6:00] Secretary Rubio is going to have to put together a team and devote some real staff and leadership [6:07] commitments to it. And, frankly, given the really dire state of the State Department, [6:12] the ranks of the Foreign Service and Civil Service, I think that's a very hard, hard call. [6:17] AMNA NAWAZ, Ph.D.: That's former Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leif joining us tonight. [6:21] Barbara, thank you so much. Good to speak with you. [6:23] AMNA NAWAZ, Ph.D.: Thank you. [6:24] AMNA NAWAZ, Ph.D.: Support journalism you trust. Support PBS News. Donate now, [6:40] or even better, start a monthly contribution today.