Israel and Lebanon hold first direct talks since 1993 — BBC News

[0:03] Hello everyone, I'm Lucy Hockings in Qatar's capital Doha. [0:06] It is day 46 of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, and over the next quarter [0:12] of an hour or so we'll bring you up to date with all the latest developments and what [0:16] they could mean for the conflict. [0:18] Let's start with the main developments today. [0:21] Talks between Israeli and Lebanese officials are taking place in Washington. [0:25] It's the first time the two sides have sat down face to face in decades. [0:32] President Trump says talks aimed at ending the war in Iran could resume in the next two [0:37] days after they broke down at the weekend in Pakistan. [0:42] Projections from the International Monetary Fund suggest the war in Iran may lead to a [0:46] global recession with estimates suggesting the UK could be the hardest hit of the world's [0:51] major economies. [0:59] But let's start with the historic meeting between diplomats from Israel and Lebanon taking place [1:04] at the US State Department in Washington. [1:06] Israeli talks follow six weeks of Israeli bombardment in Lebanon that has left more than 2,000 people [1:12] dead with at least a quarter of them women, children and medical workers. [1:17] Hezbollah, who have been firing rockets at Israel, described the talks as futile, saying the group [1:22] will not surrender. [1:24] Israel and Lebanon do not have diplomatic relations. [1:27] This will be the first formal face-to-face meeting for both sides in decades. [1:32] We have correspondents for you from across the region. [1:35] At the US State Department in Washington is Netta Taufik, Joel Gunter is in Jerusalem for [1:40] us and Hugo Bechega is in Beirut. [1:43] So let's take you straight to the US State Department in Washington and join Netta Taufik, [1:48] who is there covering the talks. [1:50] Has any progress been made, Netta? [1:54] Well, Lucy, these talks have been going on for more than two hours, and we understand [2:00] they are going to be wrapping up. [2:03] But look, I think from the outset, the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, despite calling this [2:09] a historic opportunity, really did kind of temper expectations, saying that the goal of this [2:16] meeting was to lay out a framework for an eventual lasting peace deal that they hope to achieve. [2:24] We were told that this is, of course, at low-level, ambassadors from Israel and Lebanon speaking, [2:30] but that the fact that the U.S. secretary of state is there shows that the U.S. takes this [2:33] seriously, that they are going to have these working discussions to see if future talks can [2:41] also be planned. [2:43] But, Lucy, I think there's also a real understanding, again, as the U.S. secretary of state, Marco [2:48] Rubio, underscored about the complexities here, the decades of history. [2:53] And you really can't forget that Hezbollah is not a part of these talks and has rejected [2:59] these talks. [3:00] So, while the U.S., Israel and Lebanon might be on the same page about having Hezbollah disarmed, [3:07] they are already not on the same page there, and that is no easy task. [3:12] Israel, of course, has been trying to do that. [3:14] The Lebanese government doing that, of course, evokes for many people memories of the bloody [3:19] civil war that the country endured, and no one wants to go back to that. [3:23] And so, for the Lebanese government, they are coming into these talks saying very clearly [3:28] that, for them, this is about their sovereignty. [3:31] There are real fears about Israel continuing to occupy the south of Lebanon. [3:36] They want that to come to an end. [3:38] For Israel, the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is saying that he will continue Israel's military [3:43] campaign against Hezbollah, that these talks are more about establishing a peace deal in [3:49] the future with Lebanon. [3:51] And it's interesting, we did have a State Department official share, Lucy, that they want to make [3:57] it clear that the U.S. does not see this as part of the talks with Iran, that, for them, [4:03] this is about divorcing Lebanon from Iran's influence. [4:08] But experts I have been speaking to, everyone clearly state that you really can't divorce [4:13] these two issues, that, unless there is an agreement between the U.S. and Iran, it's hard [4:18] to see movement when it comes to Lebanon and Israel being forced at the table to kind of [4:26] have a cease-fire for Israel to have a cease-fire and for a deal in the future. [4:30] And certainly for Iran, they have always believed that a cease-fire with the U.S. included Lebanon. [4:36] And for them, strategically, for their credibility, they would need Hezbollah to be part of that [4:41] cease-fire and ultimate agreement. [4:42] Neda, thank you so much. [4:47] To Joel Gunter now, who is in Jerusalem for us, as Neda was saying, calls from Lebanon for [4:52] a cease-fire. [4:53] Joel, that has been rejected by the Israelis. [4:56] So what has Israel brought to the table today in Washington? [5:00] We're waiting now any minute for the Israeli ambassador, Yehiel Leiter, to come out of this [5:05] initial round of talks today to speak to the press. [5:10] But Leiter, among other Israeli officials, has been very, very clear in recent days. [5:15] As you said, that Israel is not prepared to commit to, even to discuss a cease-fire with [5:21] Hezbollah, let alone remove the many Israeli troops who are involved in ground operations [5:28] in the south of Lebanon. [5:30] As you've been hearing, that was made very clear that that was a precondition for Hezbollah, [5:36] and Lebanese officials saying the same thing, that before there was any real peace and normalization [5:42] process, that there would have to be a cease-fire with Israel. [5:48] So the two sides seem to still be a part on that fundamental issue. [5:54] The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has backed this process. [5:59] But it is hard to see. [6:00] He's backed it somewhat under pressure from the U.S., but it is hard to see a clear way [6:04] forward for Israel without that commitment to a cease-fire with Hezbollah. [6:09] And also standing by is Hugo Bochega, who is in Beirut. [6:13] Hugo, it has been made very clear by the Israelis that Hezbollah needs to disarm. [6:19] That is something that the Lebanese government hasn't been able to do. [6:22] How have Lebanese officials and the Lebanese ambassador approached these talks in Washington? [6:27] Yeah, Lucy, so everybody here in Lebanon has been, you know, waiting to see what these [6:38] what is going to emerge from these talks today. [6:41] I think the Lebanese authorities, the priority for them is a cease-fire. [6:45] This war has been devastating for this country. [6:48] You mentioned the humanitarian crisis, with more than a million people displaced. [6:52] You mentioned that more than 2,000 people have been killed since the beginning of the conflict. [6:57] We've seen large parts of the country completely destroyed. [7:01] But the Lebanese have very little to offer, as Nara was saying, that, you know, [7:05] they cannot deliver Hezbollah's disarmament. [7:09] And this is one of the key roots of this problem, you know, Hezbollah's weapons. [7:14] So here in Lebanon, this is a country divided. [7:17] Opponents of Hezbollah have been accusing the group of defending the interests of Iran, [7:23] which is Hezbollah's main supporter of dragging Lebanon into these wars with Israel. [7:28] And they want Hezbollah to be disarmed. [7:31] And this has been a key demand, not only of many Lebanese, but also the US and Israel. [7:36] On the other hand, you have supporters of Hezbollah saying that, look, [7:40] this is the only force we have to protect our land, particularly in the south of the country. [7:46] They see Israel as the enemy, in their words, intent in seizing Lebanese territories. [7:54] So they say they need the weapons. [7:55] They say, look, the country is being invaded. [7:58] The state is unable to protect us. [8:00] And we need our weapons to protect our territory and to protect our community. [8:05] So it is a very difficult situation for the Lebanese authorities. [8:09] And the president has been clear for a very long time that disarmament is not going to happen [8:14] by force and that a deal is needed with Hezbollah. [8:18] Hugo, thank you. Here are some of the other top lines from today. [8:22] The United States has insisted no ships pass through its blockade of Iranian ports [8:27] during the measure's first 24 hours. The BBC had earlier analyzed data suggesting [8:32] at least four Iran-linked ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz since the blockade was imposed. [8:37] China's foreign ministry has condemned the blockade as dangerous and irresponsible. [8:45] The BBC also understands that Chinese officials have held talks behind the scenes to try and help [8:49] nudge Tehran back towards the negotiating table. [8:53] China, to remind you, is Tehran's biggest trading partner and buys around 80% of Iran's oil. [9:00] Italy's government has announced it would be suspending its long-standing defense agreement with [9:05] Israel. The Prime Minister, Giorgia Maloney, said the decision was made in light of the [9:10] current situation and didn't give any further details. [9:13] Well, let's focus a bit more now on the global economy, the world's finances. [9:23] The International Monetary Fund, the IMF, today issued a number of warnings about the global economy. [9:29] Speaking at the start of their spring conference, the boss of the organization said any continuation [9:34] of the conflict in Iran could put the global economy at risk of recession. [9:38] It's particularly bad news for the UK, which the IMF singled out as the one that could be [9:43] hardest hit of the world's major economies. [9:47] Straight to Washington, that's where the IMF is based. We can speak to our business [9:50] correspondent, Michelle Fleury. And it's Michelle who has been speaking to the head of the IMF. [9:54] He was pretty gloomy, Michelle. [9:59] Yeah, I mean, he said that this was certainly worse than the oil shock of the 1970s. I mean, [10:03] we knew it was going to be bad. But they have revised down their growth forecast. Now, [10:08] this is a sharp contrast, Lucy, to where we were at the start of this year, when they were talking [10:12] about the resilience of the global economy. Instead, they're painting a pretty dire picture here. [10:18] But because the situation is so fluid, they've done something they haven't done before, [10:23] and that is that they've come up with three forecasts. So what they're saying is a kind of [10:27] referral forecast where growth would be trimmed slightly, but two others which are much more [10:34] severe, the worst one being projecting essentially a global recession if this conflict continues for [10:41] a long time. What's interesting is that I'm hearing from people here that even that worst-case scenario [10:48] may be too optimistic, that they say that is the baseline that we should be thinking about, [10:53] certainly for countries. Obviously, you mentioned the U.K., which, of the rich countries, is one of [10:59] the kind of hardest hit initially. But, amongst other net oil importers, the damage is going to be [11:06] pretty stark. Countries like Pakistan, other countries where you're talking about not just job losses, [11:13] but potentially also hunger and sort of poverty there caused by this crisis. [11:21] Michelle, thank you. The fallout from the conflict [11:25] in the Middle East is throwing a number of issues into the spotlight for Western nations. [11:29] In the U.K., the former head of NATO has accused the country of complacency in defense, [11:34] saying Britain's security defenses were in peril. The amount that NATO country spends on defense [11:40] has long irked President Trump, but this criticism is coming from someone who was a former [11:45] Labour politician. Our defense correspondent Jonathan Beale has been looking at where the U.K. comes [11:51] among other nations in terms of what it spends on defense. [11:54] The government says defense spending is rising and will reach 65 billion pounds next year. That's [12:03] two and a half percent of national income or GDP. Longer term, it said it will meet a new NATO target [12:10] of spending 3.5 percent of GDP on defense. But that's by 2035, still a long way off. [12:18] The reality is the U.K. is already falling behind other NATO allies. Look at this chart. In 2020, [12:25] the U.K. was the fourth largest spender in the alliance in terms of GDP on defense. But this latest [12:33] NATO chart 2025 shows it's dropped to 14th place behind many other nations which are living closer to Russia [12:42] and are ramping up their defense spending much faster. Let's cross to Westminster and speak to our [12:50] political correspondent Ian Watson. So this report from Lord Robertson, Ian presents yet another headache for [12:55] Keir Starmer. Yes, it does. I think Keir Starmer, the victim of friendly fire, if you like, from George [13:00] Robertson, because as you say, he is not somebody who would naturally attack the government. He's a former [13:06] Labor defense secretary, a former secretary general of NATO, but also the person chosen by Keir Starmer [13:12] to conduct to lead the strategic defense review during this government's time in office as well. [13:19] And the criticisms from Lord Robertson are quite simply that the means to put his recommendations [13:25] in that review into force are simply not being delivered or delivered quickly enough. [13:29] He says, not mincing his words, that we are underprepared, underinsured and under attack. [13:35] We are not safe. Britain's national security and safety is in peril. So he doesn't mince his words. [13:40] But politically, the difficulty for Keir Starmer, too, is that what Lord Robertson is saying is that, [13:46] look, we are spending too much on welfare and not enough on defense. And that has given opposition [13:52] parties an opportunity to kick the prime minister as well. Reform UK saying they agree with Lord Robertson. [13:58] Kemi Bader, the conservative leader, similarly saying that less should be spent on welfare, [14:03] but also she said that should divert money from net zero projects into defense as well. [14:08] So this has given Keir Starmer a big political challenge. What the government says they're spending [14:13] more on defense than at any time since the Cold War. They'll continue to increase defending year after year. [14:20] And in addition to that, they say they reject the accusation that Britain's currently not safe. [14:26] IAN, thank you so much. Well, that's it from me here in Doha. As I prepare to head home, [14:37] I leave a watchful region. It is full of hope here that the current ceasefire between the US and Iran [14:43] will hold, that there will be these talks that could take place in Pakistan to find some sort [14:47] of common ground. And that will continue over the next few days. People here want a return to [14:53] predictability. They want a return to stability. And for the Gulf nations and the global economy as a [14:59] whole, the stakes couldn't be higher. They're also so high as we've been hearing too for Lebanon, [15:05] facing a humanitarian crisis after Israeli strikes and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of [15:10] people from the south. Without a lasting ceasefire between the Israel-US alliance and Iran, [15:15] there's no hope for a ceasefire there either. But tonight here in Qatar, I've just been for a walk. [15:22] Daily life is returning to normal. The skies are quiet. But in the straightforward moves, [15:27] it's about 300 miles behind me. The chance of it escalating into a military conflict is very high. [15:33] And the shattering of this calm is ever present. Whether you have joined us on YouTube, TikTok, [15:40] sounds, radio or TV, thanks for your time. I won't be back with you, but one of my colleagues will be [15:46] tomorrow with the Iran War today.