Is Trump’s tripling of Hormuz minesweeping realistic? Ret. colonel reacts

[0:00] Donald Trump posting this on his social media platform, that he has ordered U.S. forces to [0:07] quote, shoot and kill any boat that is laying mines in the strait. He also writes that U.S. [0:13] mine sweepers are clearing mines from those waterways right now, according to him, at a [0:19] tripled up level. And the U.S. Defense Department announcing its forces have seized another vessel [0:26] in the Indian Ocean that it says was carrying oil from Iran. I want to bring in CNN military [0:32] analyst Colonel Cedric Leighton and Sina Asodi, who is the director of the Middle East [0:38] Studies program at George Washington University. Good to have you both on board today. Colonel, [0:45] a lot of fast moving developments right now, certainly militarily speaking. Let's start [0:52] there. How does the Navy demine the strait? And does Donald Trump's order, to your mind, [0:58] mark an escalation in hostilities? Well, Becky, I think it could be interpreted [1:04] as an escalation, but it's actually kind of normal procedures because the strait-of-war moves [1:09] should not, under international law, be mined. So if there is mining going on, as the Iranians [1:16] have said, then the mines need to be swept up. How do they do it? Well, normally, in the past, [1:23] they would have used mine sweepers. Unfortunately, those mine sweepers have been decommissioned. They [1:28] were based in Bahrain, and they were supposed to be used for events just like this. But being [1:35] decommissioned, that makes it a bit more difficult. They can use what are known as LSTs and other ships [1:42] to do mine sweeping duties. It's a little bit more cumbersome. But according to some of the [1:48] officials in the Pentagon, what they're talking about is taking about six months to actually remove [1:54] the mines from the strait-of-war moves. And that assumes that there are not going to be other mines [1:58] that are going to be added to the mix out there. So I just wonder, that does beg the question what [2:03] the US can actually achieve in the short term then? Yeah, and that's a real problem. In the short [2:10] term, it might be really difficult to open the strait-of-war moves just from a technical [2:15] perspective. But, you know, clearly the effort has to be has to be made in order to do this to [2:21] you know, to keep the backlog down and hopefully eliminate it at some point. But it definitely [2:28] will take some time to do this. Sina, let me bring you in. How do you believe Iran will read [2:33] Donald Trump's new threat? Well, I think Iranians have a very difficult time reading President Trump [2:42] because every few hours, every few days, he changes his tone. He changes his attitude. One [2:47] day he says that, you know, the ceasefire will not be extended. And next day, the president [2:53] decides that he will indefinitely extend the ceasefire. I think for the president, this strategy [3:03] works. But it is extremely hard for Iranians to decipher what the next move of the president [3:09] is. Now, I think that with the current tit-for-tat operations to seize tankers, I think both sides, [3:20] they're trying to test the limits and show that they're not backing down. But in terms of [3:28] minesweeping, I think Iranians have achieved what they wanted to achieve. And that was to [3:33] create risk to the global shipping. As the colonel correctly pointed out, for the next six months, [3:40] it's going to cause trouble, which means that global markets, oil tankers that will cross the [3:47] Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf will have difficulty. All you have to do is to, one tanker [3:54] is struck and then you're going to have problems there. Colonel Leighton, the U.S. says it's boarded [4:01] another vessel in the Indian Ocean. That after Iran seized two ships, when Zezina said, you know, [4:07] this is what feels like sort of tit-for-tat action, but it's really serious stuff. Is this type of [4:15] action at sea our new normal? And what are the risks here? Yeah, it's not really normal to do this [4:23] at sea, you know, unless there's a, you know, a hot pursuit to where there's piracy involved, [4:29] like, let's say, off the coast of Somalia or something like that, or the vessel is under [4:35] sanction. Now, you can make the argument in the Iranian case that vessels going to and from Iran [4:41] are potentially under sanctions, but it is a bit abnormal to go outside of the region, outside of [4:49] the Persian Gulf region, in order to conduct basically what amount to hot pursuit actions. So [4:54] that is an escalation of sorts from the U.S. They've, of course, done that by sinking the Iranian [5:01] naval vessel off the coast of Sri Lanka early in this war. So that, you know, is an indication of [5:07] an attempted escalation. And I think what we're seeing is basically an attempt to go after all [5:13] Iranian vessels or all vessels that are destined for Iran. And that is part of their enforcement, [5:21] to the U.S. Navy's enforcement mechanism. But it is unusual and could potentially pose some legal [5:28] problems as well. I note your use of the term piracy there. This Gulf region where I am would [5:35] argue that what Iran is up to at present, or does argue that what Iran is up to at present [5:41] is piracy, holding the region and the world economy hostage. And to that point, Sina, Iran says it has [5:50] collected its first revenue from the Strait of Humus tolls. And it uses that term in its announcement. [6:00] At this point, is there still a pathway for diplomatic negotiations? Or do you see a period now of more of [6:08] this sort of brinkmanship at sea? I think that we are in a contest or a battle of wills, meaning that, [6:21] as I pointed out, I think both sides are trying to bring more bargaining chips to the table. [6:30] The Iranian position is that as long as the U.S. blockade continues, they will not enter negotiations. [6:37] Domestically, there are different factions in Iran who are pushing for different directions. [6:44] One faction mistakenly thinks that because they didn't lose the war in the first round of fight, [6:52] they can continue to fight, which I think is a great mistake for Iranians. The other faction [6:57] thinks that they have to take the win from their perspective and once for all achieve a political [7:06] settlement. But this issue of the double blockade that the U.S. has imposed has made things very [7:13] difficult for those in Tehran who are pushing for a ceasefire. Just give me your take on what you [7:23] expect in the next 48 to 72 hours. Colonel, first, briefly. So what I would say, Becky, is that in the [7:33] next 48 or so hours what you're going to look at is an escalation of what we're seeing right now, [7:39] more ship seizures potentially, the possibility of the Iranians taking some more tankers if they [7:45] can get them. Same thing for the U.S. And I don't see an immediate off-ramp, but at some point it will [7:53] be necessary for both sides to come to the table one way or the other. But I don't think we've achieved [7:59] that point yet. Sina? I absolutely agree with what the colonel said. I think that for the next few [8:09] days both sides will try to survive and do not say, avoid saying uncle. And then because both sides [8:22] want to think or to appear that they enter the negotiation table with more leverage. But I also [8:28] think that both the Iranian side and the American side have a vested interest in reaching a political [8:36] solution. I think that President Trump has realized that the war wasn't that easy as he was sold. I [8:44] think he wants to bring an end to the conflict because of the impact on U.S. economy. Airfares have [8:53] gone up. The price of gas has gone up. And we are in an election season. We are already seeing the [8:59] signs of the Democrats gaining more seats or Democrat candidates being elected more. And the [9:07] Iranian side also has vested interests. They need sanctions relief. They need to rebuild their economy. [9:14] They cannot continue to fight for a prolonged period. So both sides, for different reasons, [9:19] of course, have a vested interest in ending the conflict. Thank you both. And just a note for [9:25] our viewers, as Sina was talking there, I'm listening and looking at that map. And I think [9:30] it's just worth keeping that tracking map of Hormuz up just for a moment. When I consider where we are [9:39] here in Abu Dhabi, just below the sort of Strait of Hormuz down to the left-hand side there, [9:45] and you look at the amount of shipping there in the Persian Gulf and in the Sea of Oman, [9:52] it seems remarkable to me that, you know, eight weeks ago, that was a functioning sort of waterway. [9:59] So much of the world economy depends on those little red and green dots there, which are all laid up, [10:08] waiting on what happens next. It really is a moment in time, this. Thank you both very much, [10:14] indeed.