Is Trump about to attack Iran again? — Global News Podcast

[0:00] Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC. [0:03] Today I'm joined by our diplomatic correspondent, Paul Adams. [0:07] Paul, Donald Trump has a big dilemma. [0:10] He's passed the 60-day deadline to either end the war in Iran [0:15] or make the case to Congress to extend it. [0:18] We're still without peace. [0:19] What are his options now to break this stalemate? [0:22] Well, Alex, just on that question of the 60-day deadline [0:25] and the 1973 War Powers Act, [0:28] there is an active debate going on in Washington [0:31] about precisely what the U.S. administration needs to do. [0:35] We heard yesterday and the day before [0:38] from the U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth [0:40] making the argument that because there is a ceasefire in place, [0:45] that 60-day clock stopped when the ceasefire came into effect some weeks ago. [0:50] So the administration's view is that it still has time on its hands [0:55] and doesn't yet need to seek the kind of congressional approval [0:58] but many, many people in Congress are arguing that it does. [1:03] But as for the president's dilemma, you're absolutely right. [1:06] This is taking much longer than Donald Trump anticipated [1:11] and it is not entirely clear which way the U.S. is going to go. [1:17] He could seek a return to conflict, to all-out war, [1:22] risky for all sorts of reasons. [1:24] It could involve putting U.S. service people's lives at risk. [1:29] It could involve a series of, frankly, rather unpalatable military options. [1:35] The bottom line is that the Iranians have shown themselves [1:37] to be far more resilient than anyone in Washington envisaged [1:41] at the start of this campaign. [1:42] And so the thought of another round of going to war [1:48] is not immediately obviously attractive. [1:53] Equally unattractive is the thought of just simply walking away. [1:57] You don't really envisage Donald Trump simply saying, [2:01] this didn't work and we're going to sign a peace deal [2:04] and end this whole war. [2:07] I don't think that's going to happen. [2:08] So in some ways he's left with the third option, [2:11] which is just to continue the economic pressure. [2:14] If you like, it's a kind of military campaign by other means, [2:18] these competing economic blockades on the Strait of Hormuz, [2:23] which is certainly having an impact, [2:26] but it's not quite clear how long it'll take [2:29] before Iran buckles under the pressure. [2:33] And so really none of these options are terribly attractive. [2:36] I'll come back to the Strait of Hormuz in a moment, [2:39] but first of all, the military options, [2:41] however unattractive, there are reports [2:43] of another major U.S. build-up of military force. [2:48] If there were a fresh offensive, [2:50] what would it look like and what would its aims be? [2:54] Well, you're right. [2:54] There's certainly plenty of talk about this [2:56] and the President has probably more military means [3:01] at his disposal now than he has had at any point [3:04] since the conflict began at the end of February [3:07] with three carrier strike groups at his disposal. [3:11] Now, that's not an indefinite option [3:14] because one of those carriers is, [3:19] the General Ford has been at sea for a very long time [3:22] and it is thought it needs to go back to base pretty soon. [3:27] I think there's a view that Donald Trump has a window [3:30] of about a couple of weeks [3:31] when he has all of these assets at his disposal. [3:35] So in a sense, there's a little bit of use it or lose it [3:38] about the current arrangement of forces. [3:41] In terms of what they might do, well, [3:44] he's got a lot of U.S. Marines [3:47] and other troops at his disposal. [3:49] He could use them to enforce the opening [3:52] of the Strait of Hormuz. [3:54] Pretty risky given Iran's ability to close it, [4:00] whether by the use of mines or missiles fired from land. [4:05] That would be a risky operation, [4:08] possibly the taking of territory. [4:10] We heard a few weeks back the possibility [4:12] that the U.S. might seize the strategic petroleum island [4:18] of Haag Island up in the northern part of the Gulf. [4:21] In some ways, that seems a much less obvious option now, [4:24] given the fact that the Americans chose [4:27] to impose their own blockade on Iranian ports instead. [4:31] So it's hard to see how the capture of Haag Island [4:35] would really make much of a difference at the moment. [4:39] Other possibilities include the use of special forces [4:42] to go into Iran and capture the several hundred kilos [4:46] of highly enriched uranium thought to be still in Iranian hands. [4:51] And again, an incredibly risky option [4:53] that I doubt that many people would be too keen on. [4:56] We've also heard in the last 24 hours or so, [4:59] some American media reports talking about [5:02] the deployment of a new hypersonic missile [5:05] known as Dark Eagle. [5:07] This seems a little bit rhetorical. [5:10] It's a weapon system that hasn't actually been deployed before. [5:14] And what would you use a $30 million or $20 million missile? [5:20] What would be the target? [5:22] What kind of target would you select [5:24] that you haven't already hit in some other way? [5:26] So it's not at all clear what the military objectives might be, [5:31] but it is clear that Donald Trump certainly has plenty [5:34] of military options should he choose to use them. [5:37] Who's under more pressure, Paul, the US or Iran? [5:42] Well, I think thereby hangs the answer to this whole dilemma, [5:47] because we just don't know. [5:48] You have these competing blockades, as I said. [5:51] One is causing Iran enormous economic hardship. [5:57] It is clear that the economic situation in Iran is deteriorating. [6:02] It is trying to deploy all sorts of workarounds, [6:06] whether it's doing more trade across the Caspian Sea to Russia, [6:10] whether it's exporting oil by rail to China. [6:13] You know, it is improvising. [6:17] But the longer this goes on, the tougher it's going to be. [6:20] The problem being, of course, that Iran, [6:23] over decades of international sanctions, [6:26] has proved extraordinarily tough and able to withstand pressure. [6:32] Is it also a regime having, you know, [6:35] killed tens of thousands of its own people just a few months ago? [6:38] Is it a regime that really cares if those people, [6:41] those citizens experience more economic hardship? [6:45] That, you know, that's debatable. [6:47] On the other side, you have the Iranian blockade, [6:51] which is still having a significant impact on the global economy. [6:56] You know, we've seen in the last few days, [6:59] in the wake of the reports that suggested [7:02] that Donald Trump might be looking at a long-term blockade, [7:06] US blockade, that is, [7:08] you've seen the price of oil spiking once again. [7:11] And that is having all kinds of impacts, [7:13] which are extremely undesirable if you are the US president, [7:17] not least the increase in the price of petrol at the pumps in the US, [7:22] despite its energy independence, [7:25] inflation in the US, [7:27] also, you know, all sorts of economic pressures, [7:30] on top of the fact that this is an unpopular war. [7:32] And, you know, he has, [7:34] or his party has midterm elections coming up in November, [7:37] and the economic situation needs to be rosier now, [7:42] rosier then than it is now. [7:44] So, you know, this current sort of stalemate [7:49] is having enormous economic impacts in both directions. [7:53] The question is who can withstand that pressure for the longest? [7:58] And I wouldn't bet against the Iranians being able to withstand more. [8:02] Where does Israel and its war objectives fit into this? [8:08] I noticed that Israel's defence minister, Israel Kat, [8:11] says it may soon be required to act to, as he puts it, [8:14] remove the Islamic Republic's existential threats. [8:18] Well, yes. [8:19] So, you know, Israel is the country, [8:21] the only country, really, [8:22] that regards Iran as an existential threat. [8:27] And not just Iran, [8:29] but all of the groups around the region, [8:31] whether it's Hezbollah in Lebanon, [8:33] the Houthis in Yemen, and so forth, [8:36] that can act as a kind of, [8:39] as levers of power in concert with Iran. [8:43] So for Israel, [8:45] this is a far more fundamental and existential business. [8:50] And the thought that the war might be ended, [8:52] sort of just when it was in the middle of achieving results, [8:56] I think is something that would be causing grave misgivings [9:00] in Israeli government circles. [9:04] This is definitely an unfinished war. [9:07] They went into this believing, [9:10] hoping that this would result in regime change. [9:14] And right now, [9:15] you don't hear that kind of language from the Americans. [9:18] You did at the beginning, [9:19] but you don't really hear it now. [9:21] And so I think, you know, [9:23] the longer this war has gone on, [9:25] the more we have seen a kind of divergence in objectives [9:28] between Israel and the United States. [9:32] And that will cause Benjamin Netanyahu, [9:35] I think the Israeli prime minister, [9:38] a big headache, [9:38] because I think this is not something that he looks at all [9:42] ready to walk away from. [9:44] A last question. [9:46] Has Operation Epic Fury trapped the US in the sort of quagmire [9:50] previously experienced in Afghanistan, Iraq and Vietnam? [9:55] Well, you know, [9:56] if I was Pete Hegseth, [9:57] the US Defence Secretary, [9:58] I would throw that back in your face and say, [10:00] this has been two months, [10:02] two months, not, you know, multiple years. [10:06] You know, the administration bristles at any comparison [10:10] between what has gone on in the last couple of months [10:13] with those never-ending wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. [10:17] So I think to call it a quagmire is probably a mistake. [10:24] It's certainly a dilemma. [10:25] It's certainly a conflict with no obvious end in sight. [10:30] But it is not yet the kind of never-ending war [10:34] that Donald Trump, [10:35] when he was campaigning for his second term in office, [10:38] promised the American public he would not get into. [10:40] Thanks, Paul. [10:41] Our diplomatic correspondent, Paul Adams. [10:44] If you'd like more from the Global News podcast, [10:47] please click on the link below.