Is a US-Iran deal still possible? — The Take

[0:00] Today, is the naval blockade of Iran the key to an eventual peace deal? [0:05] Our blockade is growing and going global. [0:10] Trump said on Thursday he was in no rush to reach an agreement, [0:14] while asserting that the U.S. had an upper hand in a standoff in the strait. [0:18] As Iran builds allies in the region, why the U.S. still thinks it holds the cards [0:23] and that a deal could be on the table? I'm Kevin Hurton, and this is The Take. [0:28] Hi. So before we continue with today's show, remember to leave us a comment. [0:38] We do read them, and it does help us shape future episodes. [0:42] What do you think about this topic? Do you think a deal is imminent? [0:45] Do you think war could come back sometime soon? Let us know. [0:49] And remember, if you're on your favorite podcast app, [0:51] please leave us a five-star rating. It does help people find the show. [0:58] My name is Osama bin Javed. I'm a senior correspondent for Al-Tazeera English. [1:01] I've just come off a flight from Islamabad, and I'm talking to you from Doha. [1:06] Well, Osama, welcome back to The Take. What has it been like in Islamabad [1:10] these past few weeks? It seems like the center of the universe. [1:14] Whiplash is one word that describes it. It's been a roller coaster on again, off again, [1:19] lots of sleepless nights, time zones where the U.S. president wakes up, [1:22] and then when he goes to sleep, the Iranians wake up. [1:25] Okay. Lots to talk about. But maybe we start with kind of a reset here. It is late April. The Strait [1:32] of Hormuz is effectively closed. Global energy prices have spiked. We're barreling towards a [1:38] summer where we will certainly be seeing shortages, maybe even rationing in certain countries. There's [1:44] serious economic damage that's being inflicted all over the world. Yet, both the Americans and the [1:49] Iranians, who are the ones who have power to maybe solve this crisis, seem to be proceeding at a rather, [1:55] maybe we'll say charitably, a measured pace. In fact, this weekend, Donald Trump canceled his [2:00] negotiators' planned trip to Pakistan. President Donald Trump canceled a trip by [2:06] two U.S. envoys to Iran war mediator Pakistan on Saturday, dealing a new setback to peace prospects. [2:13] We're not going to spend 15 hours in airplanes all the time going back and forth to be giving a [2:19] document that was not good enough. And so we'll deal by telephone and they can call us anytime they [2:26] want. But despite this, there are signs that a deal is still possible. And I was thinking, [2:33] before we get into the finer points and the news of the day, and there is a lot of news to get to, [2:37] I want to ask you about something that you've been focusing on in some of your reporting for Al Jazeera. [2:43] And that is how the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports has really changed the balance of power [2:49] and how it might actually maybe hasten these negotiations along. [2:53] The U.S. naval blockade on Iran began on April 13th. And as of Friday, [2:58] U.S. General Dan Cain said 34 ships had been turned around. [3:02] So maybe we could start there. How has the blockade changed things, in your opinion? [3:07] Well, I asked my editors the question when we were writing that headline, [3:11] Has Donald Trump found the Achilles heel to tame the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz? [3:18] And this is a question that we are all wondering because of how this blockade is having a real [3:25] impact on Iranian imports and exports. [3:28] At Tehran's Ebensina Hospital, Chief Erash Anisyan says they are already experiencing shortages in [3:35] chemotherapy drugs, analgesics, and hypertension medications due to halted air cargo operations. [3:41] Disruptions to petrochemical production could also affect the hospital. [3:45] Remember, let's rewind to the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the United States and Israel [3:51] decided to attack. And then you saw the shifting goalposts that the U.S. President wanted the [3:56] Ayatollah gone, an end to the nuclear program, and to the ballistic missiles program, and a complete [4:03] surrender. And now it is focused on the Strait of Hormuz. And what he's done right after the Iranians [4:08] blockaded it, well, he's put his own ships just on the outskirts of that in the Arabian Sea, [4:14] so that every ship going in and coming out is being questioned by the U.S. Navy. That doesn't [4:20] mean that it's a complete blockade. There's dozens of ships that have gone back and forth [4:25] despite this blockade. But it does go to show that he has now control over it. And if he wanted [4:31] to exert more pressure, he has a lot of tools at his disposal that would expedite that blockade. [4:37] Having said that, it is going to be very difficult as well, because there's so many ships that the U.S. [4:42] Navy can board. There's so many engine rooms that they can destroy without creating a cataclysmic [4:49] effect in a very busy waterway, which has already been mined by the Iranians. So that is why it [4:56] appears that when you said measured, I would say it's been relatively reckless the way the Americans [5:02] and the Iranians have been dealing with this crisis. Last week, you did a report about, I think, [5:08] 3,000 containers of goods destined for Iran that ended up in Pakistan as a direct result of the [5:14] blackade. And then Iran was going to try to move the containers overland. Is this feasible? Is this [5:21] anything more than a stopgap for Iran? Well, that was about four days ago when we [5:26] broke the story on Al Dazeera. And now it seems like everybody's followed. And there's a special [5:32] notice that has been issued by the Pakistani customs that now these goods from third parties [5:38] will be able to navigate their way through to Iran. And there's a number of routes that have been [5:43] announced. So it appears that there is headway in that. The Iranians, because they're feeling the [5:48] pinch, there's a lot of ships that were going to go through to Iran, but they dropped their cargo on [5:55] Pakistani ports, including Gawadir and Karachi. And it appears that those transshipments are going to [6:02] find a land route to enter Iran. But the interesting thing is that this is not the only way. If you look [6:08] at the northern border with Turkey, the port of Mersin, I've just been told by some marine agencies, [6:16] is also being used in a similar fashion, where transshipments destined for Iran would be going to [6:21] these ports and making their way by land. It's going to be slower, more expensive, and it's going [6:28] to take a lot of red tape. But it appears that there are alternatives available. And if anything, [6:33] this could have been the catalyst to go through all of those routes across Central and South Asia [6:40] that you probably would not have heard of. Okay. So we mentioned that Donald Trump canceled Steve [6:47] Witkoff and Jared Kushner's trip to Pakistan. But the Iranians, and specifically Foreign Minister [6:54] Abbas Arachi, have been racking up some serious frequent flyer miles in the past few days. Arachi [6:59] went to Pakistan. He then went to Oman and back to Pakistan. And now he's in Russia, St. Petersburg, [7:04] Russia. Well, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi has met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in [7:09] St. Petersburg. The visit is part of a diplomatic push to bring an end to the war with the U.S. and Israel. [7:15] President Putin has pledged to do everything in the interest of Iran and to halt the Middle East war. [7:22] This is a new twist. What role do you see Russia playing here? [7:26] Well, I think the Russians have been trying to claw back their relevance into this. [7:30] Because remember, Russia has been an Iranian ally. Look at all that they did in Syria together. So [7:38] Russia, through the Syrian crisis, was able to find a foothold back into the Middle East. And also, [7:44] not all the times in, you know, agreement with Iran, they did have their differences inside Syria, [7:50] but they were partners during the rule of Bashar al-Assad. So now that the Russians want to get [7:57] involved as well, because of that historic context that I just gave you, but also the Russians also [8:04] operate the nuclear power plant, the Bashar plant in Iran. So it will be up to the Russians to try and [8:11] navigate the nuclear minefield, because that is a big question. Remember, the Americans want the [8:17] Iranians to give up all of the enriched uranium. Iranians say, well, that's not going to happen. [8:22] And the Russians have said and have been rejected in their proposal that, well, there could be [8:28] something that they could do there. They could go to Iran and help dilute the uranium, or perhaps [8:34] take it away from the Iranians and keep it with them for safe keeps. I don't think that either of [8:40] those options are really working right now, but it appears that they're back in the game and they [8:46] want to have a say in this. And as you mentioned that the Iranian foreign minister has been doing [8:51] these rounds, you have to see, look at it now in a wider picture, that it is no longer just a conflict [8:59] between the Iranians and the Americans. There's a lot of other players that are involved. [9:03] So during the latest trip to Pakistan, the Iranians kind of clarified their [9:07] positions on a framework that could permanently end the war. What would you say are the major [9:13] sticking points other than the Strait of Hormuz and you mentioned the nuclear issue? So you kind [9:17] of covered that. But what are some of the other sticking points they talked about? [9:21] Well, the immediate thing was before the first round. Remember, there's just been such a flurry of [9:27] news events that we did have a first round, a historic first round, where after the Iranian [9:33] revolution, the Americans and the Iranians for the first time at the highest level sat face-to-face [9:39] at the level of the U.S. Vice President and the Speaker of the Parliament and their chief negotiator [9:43] sitting face-to-face. So that was a big deal. But what happened is that after that first round, [9:50] J.D. Vance, we were expecting that there's going to be continuity, but he immediately got up and left [9:55] and said, well, this is our best and final offer, take it or leave it. The Iranians had said, even [9:59] coming before coming there, that they want a complete ceasefire in Lebanon, right? They don't [10:03] want the Israelis to carry on occupying more lands and continue to attack Beirut and other parts of [10:09] Lebanon. Then there was the issue of frozen Iranian funds, billions and billions of dollars in many [10:16] countries that are frozen in Iranian assets they do not have access to. Then there was the issue of the [10:22] Strait of Hormuz, which has been, well, the Iranians going into the second round opened it, but then [10:29] very quickly shut it again because the American blockade was there. And then there is the issue [10:35] of the nuclear file. There are two nuclear issues. One is Iran building a weapon. Iranians have [10:41] insisted. They don't want to. They actually have a religious decree from the previous Ayatollah that [10:46] they're not going to build a nuclear weapon. And the Americans insisting they want to see it in a way [10:51] where they believe it. Vant said Iran chose not to accept American terms, including on nuclear arms. [10:57] The simple question is, do we see a fundamental commitment of will for the Iranians not to [11:04] develop a nuclear weapon, not just now, not just two years from now, but for the long term? We [11:08] haven't seen that yet. We hope that we will. And the second nuclear aspect is the nuclear enriched [11:13] material. Remember, when Donald Trump pulled from the Iran nuclear deal, the Iranians said, well, [11:17] all bets are off. We're now going to start enriching uranium from 3% all the way up to 60%. And they've [11:25] got enriched uranium, which is believed to be somewhere between 440 to 460 kilograms. And that [11:33] is the bone of contention. The Americans want it out. The Iranian wants to keep it in. And the region [11:38] essentially is watching a tennis match between these two sides. So if you had to sum that up, you'd say, [11:44] number one is a permanent end to the war, making sure that Israel and Iran and the United States [11:49] don't immediately start bombing again in another six months. Then you have the Strait of Hormuz. [11:54] They've said pretty clearly that they want to have some sort of financial stake in what goes through [11:59] the Strait of Hormuz. That's one. That's number two. You have the nuclear issue and then some sort of [12:04] sanctions relief or unfreezing of assets. I got that? Absolutely. And they also want reparations for [12:10] the war damage. And there is one indication that they could ask the Americans to pay. The Americans [12:18] could ask the Gulf states to pay, who've also been damaged. Or this could all go away if the [12:23] Iranians could charge a toll on the Strait of Hormuz. As we've said in our reporting, what the [12:28] Iranians have done now is built that toll booth on the Strait of Hormuz. It's got three categories. [12:35] One is friendly countries like Pakistan, some Chinese containers, some Iraqi ships who've gone [12:43] through toll free, no charge. But then there's a second tier where you've seen some Chinese vessels, [12:50] some Indian vessels and others who've essentially paid a toll to the Iranians. And then there's the [12:55] third category of military ships, Israelis, and all of the American allies that it's a no-go area for [13:02] them. Now for the second category, they're charging it in two ways. They charge in the deeply dark web [13:09] cryptocurrency, or they're building yuan channels in the Chinese currency. And so the shippers, [13:21] the suppliers, and the Chinese brokers could essentially benefit from it. And it just [13:27] completely undercuts the petrodollar system that has been in place since the 1970s. [13:31] Are there any material differences to what we're hearing now from the 10-point plan they presented [13:38] earlier this month? [13:39] I don't think there's any fundamental differences between the 10-point plan. I think you're kind of [13:45] now getting into a more granular form of it and then a more involved form of it. So let's recap the [13:53] last 48 hours. The Iranian foreign minister announces that he's coming to Pakistan. The Americans say, [13:59] well, he's coming to Pakistan because the Iranians have requested, they want a meeting, [14:02] and we're going to send our envoys. And the Iranians go, well, hang on, we didn't do that. [14:06] Or actually comes to Pakistan, leaves Pakistan. The moment he gets on a plane, Donald Trump [14:11] tweets on his Truth Social that he is pulling out Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff for logistical reasons, [14:19] that he doesn't want them to take an expensive, long flight. And the Iranians go, well, [14:23] we never asked for a meeting. We've already said that unless you lift the blockade, there's no second [14:28] round. What happens next is very interesting. The Iranians go to Oman. And in Oman, they met the [14:34] Sultan, the Iranian, the Omani foreign minister. And then there are phone calls that happen between [14:40] the Iranians and the Turks, the Iranians and the Egyptians, the Iranians and the Saudis, [14:44] the Iranians and the Qataris, the Iranians and the French. So it just gives you that sense that [14:50] whatever is being built now is going to be in coordination with the entire region, with the [14:57] Europeans. And then once everybody's on board, the sense is, then they will put a joint foot forward [15:04] for the Americans, where the Americans will have to decide what they do. [15:09] So Osama, Donald Trump keeps complaining that he doesn't know who he is negotiating with. [15:15] We don't know who the leaders are. Nobody knows who the leader, I don't think they know who the [15:20] leaders are, very importantly. Now, the Iranians would probably say [15:24] that's something similar. Are we supposed to call the secretary of state or the president's son-in-law? [15:28] But he does have a point. He's posted, there's tremendous infighting and confusion within their [15:33] leadership. Nobody knows who's in charge. Is that true? Who is in charge in Iran? [15:39] Well, I think you see that according to everything that the aliens have been saying, [15:43] it is still being run by the supreme leader, the son of the previous Ayatollah, Mushtaba Khamnayi, [15:51] who is, well, we don't know whether he's dead or alive. [15:55] But that's a problem. If we don't know if he's dead or alive. [15:58] Exactly. So that's the question that many are asking, because you've seen statements from him, [16:03] but not seen him. There are all sorts of speculations about him losing both his legs, [16:08] to him being fatally wounded. So because there is no confirmation from the Iranian side, [16:14] so it just gives fuel to the rumor mill. But what is the reality in Iran? We got a glimpse of it, [16:20] because the Pakistani military chief had to go to Tehran and stay there in a war zone for three days. [16:27] You wouldn't normally do that. The reason he had to do it is because he had to speak to all of the [16:33] power circles inside Iran. You've got the IRGC, you've got the clergy, you've got the presidency, [16:41] and you've got the foreign ministry. So there's multiple institutions that are working [16:48] in tandem with each other. And the perception that the US president would like to give is that they're [16:53] actually all vying for power. There's a power struggle, which is not the sense that I got from [17:00] the Pakistani negotiators. They say that there is still a unified chain of command. There may be [17:06] very strong opinions one way or the other, especially when it comes to negotiating with [17:10] the United States. That seems to be dividing Iran because of what has happened in the past, [17:16] not because of what is going to happen in the future. Twice the Iranians say they have been attacked [17:22] by the United States. When they went to Oman and they started negotiating, the Israelis and the Americans [17:27] attacked them. Then they went to Geneva. And it was on a high note, I was there, of some sort of a [17:34] negotiating victory that people were expecting. And then the very next day, the Americans and the [17:40] Israelis started attacking Iran as well. And while this whole push for negotiations is underway, [17:46] what you're seeing is a massive buildup of US military hardware and personnel arriving in the [17:53] Middle East. So it appears that there is a direction that is there for diplomacy, [17:59] but the drums of war haven't stopped ringing. Okay. So that brings us back to where we [18:04] started and which is where I want to end as well. And again, talking about the naval blockade [18:09] as a response to closing of the strait by the Iranians. So you have these two sides who are now [18:14] exercising real leverage, right? Essentially seeing which will blink first. But in both cases, [18:20] there is a heavy cost to be paid, right? And that's on really three levels for both sides. [18:25] There's the tactical level, there's the domestic politics level, and then the international [18:29] politics level. And maybe you could take those kind of one at a time, starting with the kind of narrow [18:34] tactical military costs of keeping a blockade going, keeping the straits closed. How long can each [18:40] side keep that up? Well, I think let's just simplify it all down. The Iranians, their equation is [18:48] the day after. They have to look at whatever they do in that negotiation, whatever happens [18:52] to their economy, their security, their infrastructure. What does it mean for their [18:57] power structure inside? The IRGC is firmly back in power. Whatever issues there were before, [19:03] they seem to have with the war united a lot of Iranians under their leadership because they're [19:08] fighting an outside enemy. Now, the Strait of Hormuz, a fifth of the world energy supplies go through it. [19:14] It has devastated economies of the very rich Gulf countries who are essential to keep the engine [19:21] of the global economy moving. Remember, it is not just oil and gas, it is helium, aluminium, [19:27] various other downstream chemicals. Fertilizer is already a big problem. [19:32] And it is creating havoc in the global south, in various countries in Africa. [19:38] So even in the United States, farm bankruptcies are at record levels. [19:41] There you go. You said it. So this is a global supply chain and you can't get up and replace it [19:47] very quickly. And I think as you're hearing from the European Central Bank, the International Energy [19:53] Agency, you're hearing it from various central banks of the region and beyond that we are slow walking [19:59] into a disaster. The world economy right now for Europe, it's a low point in energy consumption, [20:05] but the high point is in Asia and Middle East energy consumption. It's the warm months that are coming. [20:12] And then European gas supplies are at the lowest level in the last couple of years. [20:16] So what happens in the next few months is going to reverberate for maybe years to come. So that is [20:21] why the question of how long can they keep the Strait of Hormuz closed is essentially a question that has to [20:27] be answered by the entire international community, not just the region, but beyond as well. [20:32] So final question, bottom line, Osama, what would it take for both sides to walk away feeling like [20:38] they've won enough to sell it to their people? Could opening the Strait and ending the blockade [20:44] while punting on the tough stuff, could that be the cleanest and most likely exit for everyone? [20:50] Well, the beauty of an illegal war that is decided by one person is that it can be ended by that one [20:56] person without any international backing. So the United States could today decide, and you've seen [21:05] the talking points by Donald Trump. He's winning. He's annihilated their Navy. He's destroyed their [21:09] Air Force. He's taken out their military commanders. He's killed the Supreme Leader. So he's got multiple [21:15] off ramps whenever he wants to take them. He's not there yet. The Iranians on their part, [21:19] well, they sacrificed their entire leadership. They continued to choke the world with their [21:25] blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. They still have the country going. They still have people coming [21:29] in the streets supporting them. So they've got enough to send to their local audience as well. [21:33] The Gulf and the other wider international community, well, it's a lose-lose situation for them, [21:39] whichever side comes on top. Because right now, what you're seeing in this agreement, as I mentioned, [21:44] that because of those multi-layered international involvement, it appears that now the [21:49] new shape that this framework will take, it will probably have the Middle East discussing the [21:54] Strait of Hormuz with the Omanis in power, in power to do those negotiations on their behalf. [22:00] You'll have a security agreement with the Pakistanis will be in action on establishing security [22:07] for the region. You'll have the Turks coming in within both of these spheres. Then you'll have the [22:13] Chinese and the Russians playing their role as global mediators of global energy supplies, the big [22:20] consumers as well as producers. And then there's the United States, because it's not what is at stake for [22:27] the U.S. credibility and future longevity in the region. Go back to the United States itself with higher [22:33] fuel prices, a fertilizer crisis looming, a U.S. midterm coming, and a president who needs to get results, [22:42] quick, fast, that he can sell to his audience. And he's apparently frustrated that he's not getting [22:48] them. He sure does. Wow. All those sleepless nights have really paid off. You are a font of [22:54] information. This is unbelievable analysis and wisdom. Osama, thank you for coming on The Take today. [23:00] Thank you for having me.