Iran's strategy in Hormuz aims to scare shipping, not fight US Navy, says US security expert

[0:00] The past 24 hours had briefly raised hopes that freedom of navigation would return to the region. [0:06] This is a time-lapse of what the Strait of Hormuz looked like on Friday, [0:10] in the hours after Iran announced the waterway was open. [0:13] There was a flurry of activity as vessels moved into position to try and cross. [0:18] And this is what it looks like now. [0:20] Vessels are once again staring clear at the passage. [0:23] Iranian forces have been warning ships to turn back. [0:25] Scott Eulinger is a retired U.S. Navy officer and a former CIA officer. [0:32] He joins us from Philadelphia in Pennsylvania. [0:35] Donald Trump was very clear about this. [0:37] He said that the Iranian Navy lies at the bottom of the Gulf. [0:42] But there are assets of the Iranian Navy that are still in play, [0:47] these speedboats, which seem to be very effective. [0:50] Are they effective? [0:53] Actually, they're not very effective. [0:55] And their use shows that Iran is scraping the bottom of the barrel. [1:01] Using 25-foot boats with .50 caliber machine guns on them is a desperate act. [1:07] It is definitely intimidating. [1:09] And it has compelled a lot of shipping companies to decide to stop transiting the Strait of Hormuz. [1:16] But these vessels are generally not capable of creating a lot of damage on any ship. [1:24] And now, with Trump deploying attack helicopters more than before, [1:29] I expect within the next week, any of those vessels, which dares to show itself, [1:35] is going to be destroyed. [1:37] And that will be one of the few remaining cards Iran has to try to close the Strait of Hormuz. [1:44] I mean, that's the military side of this, the technology side of this. [1:48] But there's a financial side of this. [1:50] You mentioned it there. [1:52] You know, the boats are less a military threat, but much more of an insurance threat. [1:59] It's the shipping companies that are scared of them, not the Americans. [2:03] So any attacks on them is just going to make the insurance people jittery. [2:07] And the Strait effectively remains closed, right? [2:12] Right. [2:12] That is true. [2:14] Although I also want to point out one reason that Tehran is speaking about the blockade [2:19] is because the blockade has been devastatingly effective. [2:23] With all Iranian ports closed, the United States is carrying out a distant blockade, [2:29] basically tracking assets using surveillance. [2:32] And the Navy, the U.S. naval vessels are actually outside the Straits in the Gulf of Oman. [2:38] And so Iran is losing about $160 million of oil revenue every single day, which it uses to pay [2:48] the IRGC and the Iraqi terrorists brought in to protect the regime. [2:53] And that money is going away. [2:55] And that's why Iran is angry about that. [2:58] I think the use of these small boats also indicates an absolute fragmentation of the Iranian leadership. [3:09] It's hard to determine how much of Iran's official statements are for propaganda purposes, [3:14] or perhaps reflect the simple fact that the IRGC is ignoring what the foreign ministry is saying, [3:23] and it's just conducting a war by itself on the United States and the world by trying to close down world trade at the Straits. [3:31] But that's an effective weapon. [3:34] You said the $160 million a day is what it's costing the Iranians, but it's also costing the Americans. [3:39] A conservative estimate suggests it's nearly a billion dollars a day that they're spending. [3:46] Is this sustainable for the Americans in simple terms? [3:51] It is. It is sustainable. [3:53] I want to point out that about 5% of U.S. oil imports are from the Persian Gulf. [3:59] So that's not an issue. [4:00] And people stating that, you know, it costs the Navy and the military X amount of dollars to be in a certain area is true, [4:08] but it's really only a half-truth, because the bottom line is most of those ships would have been deployed anyway. [4:15] Now they're being deployed to... [4:17] Sorry, Scott, I think we've lost you there. [4:21] ...to a conflict. [4:22] However, most of those vessels would have been deployed for a while. [4:26] Scott, I think we've lost you there. [4:30] We're going to try and get you back. [4:31] That's Scott Eulinger there. [4:34] I know we have got you back. [4:35] Scott, so when we're talking about money then, this is less of an issue for the Americans, [4:41] but it is an issue for the international community, [4:43] and they are the ones putting pressure on the Americans to try and come up with a diplomatic solution. [4:50] But it's not really... [4:51] I also think it's clear, as countries like the UAE are prepared to join the conflict with the United States, [4:58] there is no apparent negotiating with this regime. [5:02] Now, like I said, the attacks may reflect a fragmentation of the government, [5:07] but the United States intelligence is going to have to determine how sincere the previous negotiations were, [5:14] or is it that they were sincere and that certain parts, rogue elements of the government, are not going to abide by it? [5:22] So it's that judgment that is going to decide what the United States is going to be doing on Wednesday [5:29] when basically the ceasefire ends. [5:31] And now, Scott, you are a former U.S. Navy officer, but you're also a former CIA officer. [5:38] So I want to put your CIA hat on, as it were. [5:42] What is the CIA doing right now when it comes to trying to get the Strait of Hormuz open? [5:48] Is there a strategy that they'll be using? [5:54] I think, right, I was a CIA station chief in Eastern Europe, [5:58] and I actually went head-to-head with Iran quite often. [6:03] My greatest successors were actually against Iran. [6:07] U.S. intelligence in the Straits of Hormuz is going to be primarily military in nature [6:13] to sort out what remains of the Iranian Navy. [6:17] As I said, it's probably just several speedboats. [6:20] They can avoid detection, however, because they're so small. [6:24] You cover them with a couple of palm fronds, and it may be difficult for U.S. reconnaissance [6:33] satellites, and it's going to be a concern. [6:36] The CIA would be concerned very much with strategic intelligence [6:39] and things like trying to identify rogue IRGC elements that are prosecuting these attacks [6:47] and perhaps trying to contact them to try to get them to work for our side. [6:53] Scott, thank you so much for your perspective there. [6:56] It's fascinating to hear.