Iran's new Supreme Leader 'gravely injured'. Who's really leading Iran now?

[0:00] Mosh Taba Khamenei running the country in some sense as you describe it. [0:04] Let's just start, though, with the state, his state. [0:06] His injuries, you report, are disfiguring. [0:09] There have been so many rumors, but you now have some facts. [0:13] Can you tell us about his physical condition? [0:18] Hi, Iran. Thank you for having me. [0:20] Mosh Taba Khamenei was gravely injured in the airstrikes on February 28th [0:25] that started the war and killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. [0:30] He has suffered from severe leg injury. [0:35] His leg has been operated on. [0:37] There are suggestions that it may even be amputated, [0:40] and he's waiting for a prosthetic leg. [0:43] His hand has been operated on, and it's gaining functionality. [0:47] And more importantly, his face and lips have been severely burned [0:51] to the point where it's difficult for him to speak, [0:54] and he will require plastic surgery. [0:57] So we know that he's gravely injured. [1:01] We know that there's the president of Iran, President Pazashkian, [1:05] who's a heart surgeon, and the health minister are in charge of his health care, [1:09] and he's mostly surrounded by a medical team in a hiding place. [1:15] And access to him is incredibly difficult. [1:17] And that's probably one of the reasons why we haven't seen the new supreme leader [1:22] in any video messages, nobody has, and his voice has not been heard. [1:27] To the extent that he's communicated, it's been with written statements read on state television. [1:34] I mean, it is incredible what you're reporting. [1:36] And I know, you know, in your article, Faraj, you detail how, as you mentioned, [1:41] he is surrounded by doctors, and to the point that senior leadership of Iran has, [1:47] they're not able to get in to see him, to talk to him. [1:50] You know, is that merely because they're worried about possible assassination [1:55] or elimination that this could find where he is? [1:58] Or is it also because he doesn't want them to see him? [2:01] And do you know about his mental capacity? [2:06] Well, we've heard his mental, all the sources I spoke to said his mental capacity was intact. [2:13] So he was able to engage and communicate. [2:16] Now, we also know that as soon as he was appointed as the successor of his father, [2:23] Israeli officials said that they would assassinate him if they found him. [2:28] And, you know, there's been airstrikes that have killed not just Ayutollah Khamenei, [2:35] the late Ayutollah Khamenei, but also very senior commanders. [2:37] So there is a real threat and risk to his life in the view of the Iranians and from what we can gather. [2:46] So, you know, part of the reason why there's no access to him is because I heard from sources [2:53] that Iranians are worried that if officials try to visit him, their movement might be traced to him [2:59] because we know that also that the movement of senior officials has been sort of monitored. [3:06] So that's one of the reasons. [3:08] And I think you also mentioned his physical condition, right? [3:11] He probably doesn't want many people to see him in this vulnerable and weak physical condition [3:18] and wants to recover. [3:19] Now, you report that he has been working very closely with the IRGC. [3:25] And this goes back in part to his own time with some of these individuals back when he was a teenager in the Iran-Iraq war. [3:33] And so it's personal, but it is an even more solidification and rise of the IRGC, which you're reporting about. [3:39] But on this issue of what sort of control he has, how is he even communicating with them, [3:48] given that you're reporting they can't go and visit him? [3:51] How is the communication happening? [3:54] Well, they can't go visit him. [3:56] There's absolutely no electronics around him because of possible tracing him through electronics. [4:03] So there's no telephone, there's no, you know, email, no video. [4:07] So the only way is sort of the old way, you know, they write handwritten notes, [4:12] they seal it in an envelope and a huge chain of human couriers sort of carries it around. [4:17] I heard on motorbikes, in cars, and it's like handed from one secure trusted source to the other until it makes it to his hiding. [4:26] And then it snakes back out, his replies snake back out the same way. [4:32] So this is not a system where you can communicate every day or in real time, right? [4:37] So one of the reasons that he's delegated so much power in decision-making to the Revolutionary Guards [4:44] is the circumstances of his injuries and his hideout. [4:49] But as you pointed out, because he trusts and has very deep ties with the commanders who are in charge, right? [4:55] So decision-making under, sorry, go ahead. [5:00] No, no, no, I was just, go ahead, finish your sentence. [5:04] Yeah, decision-making under the father used to be really the veto of one man. [5:09] Aytola Khamenei, the father would say yes or no, it was his will, and he had the final say. [5:14] We're saying, we're seeing a very different decision-making system now in the current new era, right? [5:21] We're seeing more a collaborative system where the generals are in charge, [5:25] where they're calling the shots, and they're deciding what key decisions about how far Iran's [5:31] going to escalate the war, about closing the Strait of Hormuz, about accepting a ceasefire, [5:37] and most importantly, diplomacy with the United States. [5:40] These are all decisions that the generals are making. [5:43] We haven't really seen any disarray at the top, although differences of opinions may have, [5:48] you know, are there, of course, but it appears that the decision-making is cohesive, [5:54] and it's in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards. [5:57] Yeah, and obviously very significant, because the Revolutionary Guard is obviously not who [6:02] has been leading the negotiations, right? [6:04] That has been Iqbala Bhav, Member of Speaker of Parliament, and others. [6:08] So very significant what you're reporting here, all of it. [6:11] Varnaz, thank you so very much. [6:12] I appreciate it. [6:13] Thank you. [6:14] Seth Jones and Kareem Saad-Japur are here with me. [6:16] Seth, Varnaz reporting so much there, but let's start with Muqtaba Khamenei being disfigured, [6:21] that he needs plastic surgery, a prosthetic limb. [6:24] His inability, at best, to be seen is imperiled. [6:29] What is the implication of all of this, Seth? [6:32] Well, I think, Aaron, there are at least two implications. [6:36] One is that, as you just discussed, the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, is playing [6:44] a very influential role in the decision-making right now, including influencing the negotiations. [6:51] And the second thing, I think, is that we are seeing a very decentralized and diffuse apparatus. [7:00] That means that, despite all of that, we've seen the Iranian military continue to be able [7:07] to fire cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones off from a decentralized perspective, [7:14] even with all of this happening. [7:15] So they still have been able to figure out how to conduct a war, even with all of this [7:21] trouble at the top. [7:23] And Kareem, you know, when we hear that Khamenei is surrounded by doctors, there's absolutely [7:26] no electronics around him, not even to the extent that somebody would bring in a random [7:32] phone to tape a video, nothing, and that no senior leadership have visited him because [7:37] of the fear that they could reveal his location to Israel or the United States and have him [7:40] be assassinated. [7:42] Kareem, what are the implications of such total and utter isolation? [7:46] So, Aaron, the Iranian system already was very inefficient in making decisions. [7:52] It oftentimes took them many months, if not years, to come to a consensus. [7:56] That was when there was one clear leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. [8:00] Now, under these circumstances, when you have a supreme leader who's been badly injured [8:06] and living and hiding under paranoia, totally disconnected from the outside world, you can [8:12] only imagine the additional inefficiencies. [8:15] And I'm reminded of an observation which the great North African historian Ibn Khaldun made [8:21] in the 14th century said that empires are built and destroyed over three generations. [8:26] The first generation build, the second generation consolidate, and the third generation squander. [8:32] And Mosheb al-Khamenei is the third generation of the Islamic Republic's leadership. [8:37] And he is not someone I would bet on to be ruling Iran several years from now. [8:41] You know, and Seth, in that context, it is also fascinating what we're hearing about that [8:47] chain of couriers, right, with this inefficient communication Kareem's talking about. [8:52] You know, she's talking about person-to-person-to-person in sealed envelopes on back roads and motorbikes. [8:58] I mean, it's pretty incredible, Seth. [9:00] And it sort of makes you think about, right, the way that Osama bin Laden was found, right? [9:05] That was one courier. [9:06] That was one guy they were tracking. [9:08] This, you know, they're trying to go to some level of Byzantine sort of communications. [9:14] It is pretty incredible, though, because obviously they are incredibly terrified of an assassination, [9:19] and they're looking at the Osama bin Laden model. [9:22] Yeah, two interesting things from this, Aaron. [9:24] One is that it did make it difficult for Osama bin Laden to actually run his organization [9:29] without the ability to have routine communication with al-Qaeda leadership, [9:35] not just in Pakistan, but also around the globe. [9:38] I suspect the same thing is happening to some degree here, [9:41] which is why we're seeing a lot more of a role of the IRGC. [9:45] The second thing is that it actually made it a little bit more challenging for intelligence agencies to find. [9:51] I suspect if the Americans and the Israelis are trying to target him now, [9:57] that they are really focused on couriers. [9:59] That's human intelligence in addition to imagery and the signals intelligence as well. [10:04] So it does create some challenges if you're trying to track.