Iranian delegation arrives in Pakistan for ‘make or break’ talks with US

[0:00] Earlier, Iranian media reported that negotiations would begin [0:03] if Washington accepted Tehran's preconditions. [0:07] Iran insists the talks should include Israel ending its attacks on Lebanon. [0:12] The Lebanese and Israeli governments have agreed to meet for talks on Tuesday, [0:16] but Israel so far has refused to negotiate with Hezbollah. [0:20] Israel has launched heavy attacks in recent days, [0:24] striking what it says are Hezbollah targets. [0:27] The Lebanese group is allied with Iran. [0:30] Lebanon says nearly 2,000 people have been killed in the country since March 2. [0:36] Well, Kamal Haider is standing by for us in Islamabad. [0:40] We'll go to him in a second, but first to Rosalind Jordan in Washington, D.C. [0:43] Rosalind, so the U.S. vice president, we understand, is due to touchdown in Islamabad very soon. [0:50] Is it clear at this stage what exactly the U.S. is hoping to achieve from these talks? [0:54] Well, there are two main goals. [0:57] The first one, which was one of the reasons why the U.S. said it had to start the war against Iran [1:03] on February 28th was to prevent that country from developing a nuclear weapons arsenal. [1:08] We had heard the threats before, and that's when finally the Trump administration decided now or then, [1:15] I should say, was the time to act. [1:17] The other reason, which became much more of a reason as the war hit its third week, [1:23] was the fact that because of its geography, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz [1:29] and was basically able to prevent both military and commercial tankers from crossing the Strait [1:36] and heading out into the Arabian Sea and then onto the Indian Ocean. [1:42] Because of that, there's been a real backlog in the transference of oil and natural gas products [1:49] to the global economy. [1:51] Prices of those products and their subsidiary products have gone up. [1:56] There's been an impact on inflation, and certainly the idea is to try to stabilise the globalised economy [2:04] and not allow Iran to control such an important piece of it. [2:09] Stay with us, Ross. [2:11] Let's go first to Kamal Haido in Islamabad. [2:14] Kamal, so what is the picture where you are? [2:16] We understand there's a huge security operation. [2:19] Tell us how these talks are expected to take place. [2:22] Well, just to bring you up to date, the Iranian team headed by the Speaker of the Parliament, [2:35] Mohammed Bagir Khalibaf, landed in Islamabad. [2:40] The Iranian aircraft was given an escort by Pakistan Air Force jets as it entered into Pakistani airspace. [2:49] The Pakistani foreign minister, accompanied by the chief of the Defence Forces, General Asim Muneer, [2:58] received him on the tarmac. [3:01] Then there was a convoy that led them into the city. [3:05] Amidst very tight security, we are told, that Pakistan's special services group, [3:11] that is Pakistan's Praetorian Guard commando unit, was also giving and providing security. [3:19] The Iranian team, of course, says that they are here with full support and authorisation [3:26] from the Iranian government. [3:28] We are expecting J.D. Vance also to arrive within the next hour or so. [3:34] A very tight security indeed, up to 10,000 security forces personnel have been deployed in Islamabad. [3:42] The red zone has been sealed off and all eyes will be on those crucial talks. [3:49] The future of the region hangs in a precarious balance. [3:54] So the world will be eyeing this very closely as to see what transpires and what kind of progress is made. [4:01] Ros, back to you. [4:04] The Iranians have said one of the preconditions to these negotiations, even beginning, [4:09] is that hostilities by Israel against Lebanon must stop. [4:13] What are we hearing from the Trump administration on that front? [4:17] How much pressure are they under on Hezbollah and Lebanon? [4:24] Well, the Trump administration reportedly has been trying to convince Israel to hold its fire, as it were, [4:31] in order to not endanger this two-week-long ceasefire, which is expected to end on Tuesday, April 21st. [4:39] Now, there are conflicting reports about whether the Israelis are actually going to go along with it, [4:44] but it is worth pointing out that the U.S. will be hosting Israeli and Lebanese government officials [4:50] here in Washington on Tuesday to see if they can work out some sort of ceasefire in that conflict. [4:57] It is worth noting, however, that it's Hezbollah that Israel has been going after, [5:02] not after Lebanese government targets. [5:05] And so unless they're going to actually talk to Hezbollah, which Hezbollah says it won't do, [5:10] then you have to question, well, what's the point of these discussions? [5:13] But they are going to happen here in Washington regardless. [5:16] As for the pressure on the Trump administration, there's a lot of pressure. [5:21] Two out of three Americans and numerous polls say that they want to see the war ended, [5:25] that they think it has gone too far. [5:27] They're complaining about the cost of fuel and products that are affected by rising energy costs. [5:33] Inflation is going back up. [5:35] That's creating political pressure for the Trump administration. [5:38] And within the administration itself, there was not unanimity about whether to even start the war in the first place. [5:45] And it's worth pointing out that the vice president, J.D. Vance, [5:48] was perhaps the most vigorous voice against launching the war. [5:52] But now he is the one who's going to be leading the delegation from the United States in Islamabad this weekend. [5:59] And it's going to be a lot of pressure on J.D. Vance to try to get a formidable, much stronger ceasefire agreement with the Iranians, [6:09] given that he is the one who really did not want to see this war start in the first place. [6:15] OK, thank you for that. [6:16] Rosalind Jordan there for us in Washington, D.C. [6:18] Let me go back to Kamal Haidin in Islamabad. [6:21] So, Kamal, tell us more about the role of Pakistan in all this. [6:25] We know, of course, they played a pivotal role in bringing about the ceasefire. [6:29] The Pakistani economy also came under major strain because of the war. [6:33] So, they too have a lot to gain for making these talks work. [6:44] Absolutely. Pakistan imports 80% of its fuel and petroleum products from the Persian Gulf. [6:51] The country's economy has been hit hard because of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, [6:57] although the Iranians have allowed some of those Pakistani ships to cross the Strait of Hormuz. [7:03] The other important thing is that Pakistan's endeavors have borne fruit primarily also [7:10] because friendly countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and also, crucially, [7:17] China, have played an important role in supporting Pakistan in this movement [7:22] and are in constant touch with the Pakistani government. [7:26] So, an auspicious occasion for the Pakistani foreign policy. [7:31] But at the same time, there is cautious optimism as to whether these talks will succeed. [7:37] I've been told by an important, credible source that the deal is almost done. [7:43] The preliminary work has been done by the forward teams that arrived before J.D. [7:49] Vance's arrival and the Iranian team's arrival. [7:52] And there is an expectation that perhaps a deal may be signed between the United States and the Iranian. [8:00] Now, these talks are going to be indirect in the sense that Pakistan will be taking passing messages between the two. [8:09] But we are told that most of that work is done. [8:11] Pakistan, of course, could not have done this alone, although it takes credit and deserves credit. [8:17] But this would not have come about without the input from friendly countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, [8:25] just to name a few. [8:27] Kamal Haider reporting there from Islamabad. Thank you. [8:30] Let's cross to the Iranian capital now, where Zoray Karazmi, an associate professor at the Faculty of World Studies, [8:38] University of Tehran, joins us now live. [8:41] How much is at stake for ordinary Iranians in ensuring these negotiations succeed and that the war does not resume? [8:51] For Iranians, actually, it was a hope and despair simultaneously appearing [8:57] when they are just talking and discussing the ceasefire negotiations. [9:02] I think that, as I take, actually, for Iranians, now the ball is in Americans' court. [9:12] And when from the unconditional surrender, from backing Iran to stone age and having new regime, [9:21] actually, Trump is coming to this agenda of having an endgame for the war in one way or the other, [9:28] it indicates that where the United States stands. [9:31] And I think this is the time that the United States should try to see that against the full devotion they had for Israel, [9:42] how much leverage they have to convince Israel not to destroy these peace talks. [9:47] So, I think Iran is really firm about both preconditions and the conditions, [9:54] particularly those relating to the financial issues and Lebanon. [10:00] So, for the Iranians, actually, they are just looking forward to seeing that what's really running on Islamabad. [10:11] And they are not really very optimist about the future of talks because there is no trust to the United States [10:19] and its allies in the region. [10:21] And the hope in Iranians' hearts is that... [10:28] Apologies for interrupting you. [10:30] Let's just move. [10:31] If I could ask you, I mean, do you think... [10:33] Do Iranians believe they now have a greater leverage in these talks, [10:37] particularly given the control they have over the Strait of Hormuz? [10:43] Sure. [10:44] I think that Trump is not going to tuck down the prices of the energy in coming days. [10:53] And when you're talking about the Strait of Hormuz, you're not talking only about oil or LNG, [10:59] you're talking about fertilizer, you're talking about helium that makes the whole industry come down. [11:06] And for the breaking and bringing down the global economy, [11:09] everybody will blame the United States for taking such a dangerous adventure against Iran. [11:16] So, the United States is in a very delicate situation and also his allies in the region. [11:23] And Iran has the upper hand, both in the military side and the negotiations. [11:29] And in terms of the negotiations, we have the U.S. Vice President, J.D. Vance, leading the talks. [11:36] That was on the request, I believe, of Iran. [11:38] But we also have Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff involved, who were involved in previous negotiations. [11:44] How are they likely to be received by the Iranian negotiating team? [11:48] Actually, when you're talking about negotiations, you're talking about gives and takes. [11:57] So, I think for Iran, having these two preconditions, that one was the frozen fund of Iran, [12:06] that's about $6 billion to be released. [12:12] And at the same time, the Israelis to push back and letting Lebanese actually go back to their homes [12:21] after months of the forced displacement. [12:27] And as the official account of the Iran embassy in South Africa wrote, [12:35] was that these preconditions were met by Americans. [12:38] So, we should see if, in practice, they are being realized, actually, in the fields of the negotiation. [12:46] Okay. Thank you for your analysis, Zohreh Karansby, an Associate Professor, Faculty of World Studies [12:52] at the University of Tehran.