Iran vows to expand attacks as tensions with the US escalate

[0:00] Well, Eli Breimer is a former major in the U.S. Air Force. [0:02] He's also a Republican strategist, and he's joining us live from Colorado. [0:06] And here in the studio, I'm joined by Neha Mosaveh, [0:10] a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy. [0:14] She's also the host of the Iran podcast. [0:16] And here in the studio, we have our senior correspondent, Osama bin Javid. [0:20] Thank you very much indeed to all of you for being with us. [0:23] Osama, I want to start with you because I want to talk to you about this note [0:26] that's come out from Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shabak Sharif, [0:29] requesting a two-week delay for consultations and for negotiations to continue. [0:35] What more do we know about this? [0:36] Well, speaking to our sources, we can now confirm that Shabak Sharif [0:40] is pushing for a last-ditch effort. [0:42] In the last few minutes, there's been a flurry of phone calls [0:45] between the Pakistani foreign minister and the foreign minister of Turkey, [0:48] of Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. [0:50] This is the quad that has been involved in so much of those negotiations [0:55] that have been taking place first in Riyadh and then in Islamabad, [0:58] pushing for these sides to come together. [1:00] What these sources have also told us is that Pakistan is in touch with all parties to the conflict [1:05] and no one has shown a willingness to ditch diplomacy. [1:10] So there is still a flicker of hope that is available [1:13] as the clock ticks to this deadline by President Trump. [1:17] What the Pakistani government wants to show is that there are still off-ramps [1:22] that can be taken by both sides, appealing to President Trump [1:26] as well as to Iran of possible options. [1:28] And it is, according to our sources, this is also a message [1:31] to the detractors that exist on both sides. [1:34] And according to Pakistan, the biggest detractor on all of this [1:37] is Israel, which does not want to see an end to this conflict. [1:41] These sources are telling us that Pakistan wants to shoulder this responsibility. [1:46] This is not a Pakistan-only proposal that is on the table. [1:51] Pakistan is leading the effort, but it has the backing of all of these countries. [1:55] And it is in a unique position to push this forward. [1:58] Because it has the backing of regional countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, [2:02] of the region, because Pakistan has a border with Iran, [2:06] and Turkey has a border with Iran. [2:08] So it has the backing of Turkey. [2:09] It is also in a unique position to have open lines of communication with Iran [2:13] and with China, as well as the United States. [2:16] So all of this is putting it in a position where it is still hopeful. [2:20] We've seen quiet diplomacy in the last few weeks, [2:23] and now it appears that Pakistan is going all out to try and bring, [2:27] at the last minute, [2:28] some sense of sanity to bring people off the ledge. [2:32] Eli Bremer, the way that Osama is describing it there, [2:35] there are a significant number of countries who are backing this proposal. [2:38] This is not just necessarily something that is coming from Pakistan. [2:42] There does seem to be a sense that there is a hope for some grounds for negotiation. [2:47] How do you think this is going to be accepted by the White House? [2:53] I don't really see President Trump being influenced by having more countries out there [2:56] supporting this particular proposal. [2:59] What President Trump is doing right now, [3:02] is rectifying 47 years of failed policy around Iran, [3:05] particularly with the concerns of Iran being allowed to pursue nuclear weapons [3:10] as well as rockets that can now reach Europe [3:13] and potentially could reach the United States before too long. [3:16] I think that President Trump is very likely to basically say [3:20] he doesn't mind going it alone. [3:22] Continuing to pressure the Iranians to fully disarm and dismantle their systems. [3:27] So I think what I say is because of the extreme, [3:28] Because of the extreme, [3:29] think i think with other previous presidents this would have had a bigger impact i think president [3:33] trump right now believes that he's got the ability to finish the disarming of the iranians [3:38] um potentially by taking out their power plants and their bridges and then forcibly you know [3:44] require iran to not have uh the nuclear weapons and the rockets that he has said from the beginning [3:51] he is going to prevent them from having uh nega motasevi um the pakistan is suggesting that iran [3:56] should open the state of hormuz for the similar amount of time couple of weeks in order to make [4:02] it essentially a goodwill gesture so the negotiations could continue given the threats [4:07] that iran perceives from the u.s and from israel do you think that it's likely iran would be open [4:12] to that suggestion i don't think so i mean iran is subjected to a war that's unlawful according [4:20] to u.s and international law without a vote from the u.s congress without a vote from the u.s [4:24] security council without consultation with closest u.s allies etc [4:28] a war that's unpopular inside the u.s among the majority of the population every poll shows and [4:33] also no u.s ally you know europeans nato wants a part in this war and the iranians feel like their [4:40] uh hormones the straight hormones card is essentially one of the golden cards that [4:44] they've played this is part of a strategy of a weaker party the underdog that doesn't have [4:50] that can't match of course the military might of the world's superpower which is the u.s and the [4:55] regional power which is israel but at the same time they have [4:58] escalated in an asymmetric war they've escalated horizontally they have opened new fronts [5:03] across the region they have spread the war outside of their borders and now with the [5:07] straight of hormones they have a chokehold on 20 of global energy and they've been able to drive up [5:12] energy prices and really put you know transfer some of this pain to the global community hoping [5:18] that then they would put pressure on washington to end this war so i don't think they're going [5:23] to give that up at the beginning um and potentially we're seeing that they want [5:28] to expand this into even potentially after the war into some form of economic gain as a result of [5:35] this osama you wanted to come in there well i think it depends on who you speak to uh i asked [5:41] this question with the pakistanis that you know why would donald trump who has amassed all of these [5:47] troops who's put himself in this corner who've upped the ante so much would back down and then [5:52] vice versa with the iranians because state of hormones is essentially their nuclear option and [5:58] for them to be able to give that up they need some real guarantees and according to these [6:03] pakistani sources what they want to tell iran that if you want to tell the world that you're [6:08] in control you should be able to open it and close it what the iranians have been doing is that [6:13] allowing about 15 or more ships in the last 48 hours to pass through the strait of hormuz so [6:19] iran could come back and say well it is already open for our friends and president trump because [6:23] he wants to be the president of peace the president who wants to establish [6:28] peace in the world, this is something that he rallied his vote bank on, can actually take this [6:33] opportunity to regroup and rethink. And it just gives more time for diplomacy to function. So [6:38] there is the possibility of an off-ramp. And again, as one source told us, that the Pakistanis [6:44] said that they can only take the horse to the water. Whether it drinks or not is up to them. [6:49] Yeah. Eli, I want to ask you about this question of the role of Israel in this, [6:53] because at the moment we're talking about this as though this is a two-way street, which is Iran [6:57] and the U.S. It's not. There are three people in this, three countries. And the third one, [7:01] of course, is Israel. What's your assessment of how much influence President Trump now has [7:06] over Benjamin Netanyahu? It should remind people, of course, that there's a lot of speculation that [7:11] it was Benjamin Netanyahu who brought or encouraged Donald Trump to be part of this conflict [7:16] in the first place. I think that obviously the United States and Israel have a very friendly [7:25] and cozy relationship. I think it would be... [7:28] overstating it to say that the United States is substantially influenced by Israel. The United [7:33] States, particularly President Trump, I think does what he wants to do, which can be difficult [7:40] if you're Pakistan or other countries, European allies trying to get him to the negotiating table. [7:47] I think he is a man of deep convictions of his own that believes he's doing the right thing. [7:54] So I don't think Israel impacts the United States much. I think the United States has, [7:58] more influence on Israel than Israel has in the United States, because I think, [8:03] you know, Israel needs the United States support to maintain the power that they have as regional [8:08] power. So they can't afford to really get on the wrong side of the United States. But the United [8:12] States is going to do what it wants to do, regardless of Israel's opinion. [8:16] I want the three of you just to stay with me briefly, because a short while ago, [8:19] Iran's military spokesman had vowed to continue attacking U.S. assets and push their troops out [8:24] of the region. [8:29] Devastating attacks by the Iranian armed forces against the military, security and economic [8:35] infrastructure of the Zionist regime in the occupied territories and centers associated [8:41] with the criminal America in the region will continue to be heavier and more extensive. [8:48] We will target the infrastructure of the United States and its allies to deprive them of the [8:54] region's oil and gas for years and force them to leave the region. [8:59] Okay, Negar Motasavi, I want to come to you off the back of that, because throughout this, [9:04] the U.S., Donald Trump particularly, and Pete Hexeth, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, [9:08] saying that they have control over the Iranian skies, that they have, to use their word, [9:14] decimated, which if I understand means one in 10, the Iranian missiles and so on. And yet, [9:19] Iran seems absolutely determined that it's going to stick the course. [9:24] Absolutely. Like I said, they are the underdog, but they're also not a paper tiger, [9:28] as Benjamin Netanyahu has sold to President Trump. [9:31] Don't forget, this war is not just one war. This is, in the Iranian mind, [9:35] a continuation of the June war. Last year, the 12-day war, essentially, the Iranians agreed to [9:40] a ceasefire. And then the war came back to them or restarted again by U.S. and Israel in a much [9:45] bigger way. This time, the Iranians see it as existential, as a battle of survival, and they [9:50] have changed their defense doctrine. They have realized that with President Trump, they think [9:55] they have shown too much restraint. They have offered off-ramps too early. They accepted a [10:00] ceasefire. And that's why the war came back. And they have shown too much restraint. And they have [10:01] accepted a ceasefire. And they have accepted a ceasefire. And they have accepted a ceasefire. [10:01] So when we talk about a ceasefire and an end to the war, the Iranian thinking is long-term. [10:06] How do we end this permanently so it doesn't come back to us in six months, in a year, [10:10] sort of this mow-the-grass mentality that the Israelis have, the way they treat Gaza or the [10:15] way they go into Lebanon? So that's also the longer game. For the Iranians, they would have [10:19] fight it once and end it, so it doesn't come back to them. That's why the issue of guarantees is [10:27] very important. And that's why they also want to come out of this war in a better way. [10:31] Better shape economically, either with sanctions removal or fee collection from Hormuz for [10:36] reconstruction and for essentially combating what they have seen as a silent war over the years. [10:44] The campaign of maximum pressure is not just military. It's also sanctions that have really [10:49] crippled the Iranian economy. Eli, I want to come back to you because [10:52] in the face of this apparent defiance from Iran, of course, there are thousands of [10:57] U.S. service personnel who are in that region. We've already seen some of them who've been killed, [11:01] we've also seen aircraft brought down, and of course, those extraordinary rescues that [11:06] were carried out in the next couple of days. As this conversation, as this conflict, rather, [11:11] continues, that does increase the risk to the lives and the safety of the U.S. personnel. [11:17] And do you think that the U.S. president and Pete Kegseth really understand the risks that [11:22] the personnel are facing? Well, I think so. And anytime you're involved in kinetic conflict, [11:29] you need to expect casualties, you need to expect fatalities. [11:33] The United States military has really been putting on an interesting display of new [11:38] capabilities with their operation in Venezuela. And frankly, the amount of kinetic operations [11:44] that have happened in this particular conflict is pretty stunning that you've had very minimal [11:50] casualties. You've had none over Iran. You've had a few service members who were killed when [11:55] an Iranian missile hit a foreign military base. So obviously, casualties are expected. That's one [12:02] of the very unfortunate things that we're seeing. But I think it's a very important thing that we're [12:03] seeing. I think it's a very important thing that we're seeing. I think it's a very important thing [12:03] that we're seeing. I think it's a very important thing that we're seeing. I think Americans will [12:07] obviously see that very, very poorly. And that's something that President Trump's going to be [12:11] looking at. But again, I think this is why he's probably looking to escalate to try to put maximum [12:17] pressure back on Iran militarily, disarm them. And then once they're fully disarmed and they can't [12:22] rearm, I'd be surprised if President Trump doesn't say, OK, we've declared victory and we're going [12:28] home. And we're just going to leave it there. Eli Abramo and Nago Mossadegh. And, you know, [12:34] Osama bin Javid, thank you very much indeed for being with us.