Iran-US tensions escalate after ship seizure incident

[0:00] for more on this and all the latest developments in the conflicts let's now bring in our guests [0:03] here in the studio with me is hassan ahmadian associate professor at the university of tehran [0:08] and in washington dc alex vatanka a senior fellow at the middle east institute and author of the [0:14] battle of the ayatollahs in iran the united states foreign policy and policy rivalry gentlemen [0:20] welcome to you both thank you so much for joining us quite a few developments happening in the last [0:24] hours so professor ahmadian let me start with you we heard our previous guest a former navy officer [0:30] say that what's happened what's unfolded in the gulf of oman is an act of war under international [0:37] law will iran be seeing it that way is this an escalation a violation of the ceasefire from [0:42] iran's perspective for sure the iranians were clear from the day the united states announced [0:48] that there will be a siege they said we will not observe the limits of any siege on our shipments [0:56] and that we will move according to our previous code and so they did up until tonight they did this [1:03] the what what they used to do uh there was no there were warnings as the iranians are saying but there [1:09] was no act again aggression again there against the iranian vessels but tonight things changed i'm hearing [1:16] from tehran that they already retaliated against a u.s ship uh by via by using drones okay iranians [1:25] are you a ship in the gulf of near the strait of homos i think so that's i mean we haven't had any [1:30] yeah we haven't had any information i'm not sure but i i just checked uh iranian sources there are talks [1:35] of that i think that can uh escalate quite fast if the united states decides to carry on targeting iranian [1:44] shipments will this be a one-off counter reaction from iran or could we expect uh further i think [1:49] they they as the story is going uh the one american ship was targeted in retaliation for the americans [1:57] attacking one iranian ship so i think it's one incident for one uh it can escalate if the united states [2:05] decide to carry on attacking iranian shipments or seizing iranian ships uh the iranians will have no [2:12] choice but to retaliate in kind all right alex fatanka how do you view this incident will this [2:18] derail any prospects of talks in islamabad folly i i really think fundamentally that depends very much [2:26] on the uh kind of inner readings that you have in washington tehran whether the prospects of [2:33] diplomacy in islamabad are real or not as you've had in your program already there are questions on [2:39] the iranian side if the united states is genuinely interested in diplomatic solution i think that's [2:44] a wrong reading in tehran i think the united states generally is interested in some kind of the [2:49] diplomatic process it's a different question if what the us is asking for is plausible for the [2:55] iranian side to live with but i think diplomacy for now is very much what united states want to at [3:01] least try continue to to experiment with and if that's true and the iranians also come to that [3:07] conclusion then one would hope that this incident will not derail the diplomatic process because as we [3:13] all know so much is at stake and again we can play with words i mean iran and uh us have been at war [3:20] with one another um at the very least since the position of the blockade you could argue from a [3:26] legal point of view imposing a blockade in the country is a declaration of war the american side the [3:32] gulf countries can declare iran to have declared war on them but with the attacks that they have [3:37] carried out in recent weeks so again we can play that game if you will or we can focus on the key [3:43] issue here which is is there a viable diplomatic process if so can they focus on the substance and [3:50] agree on a bottom line basic framework to work from because again that could be the best case scenario [3:56] if they ever get to that point professor amadian will this derail the negotiations prospects of [4:00] negotiations as you say because the iranians have said they're not uh going to head to islamabad [4:05] unless this uh naval blockade is lifted what are your sources telling you about that will tehran send [4:11] a delegation i'm not sure really there are discussions i imagine in tehran being held on [4:17] the merits of going to pakistan because the previous time they went things were going quite smoothly [4:25] but then all of a sudden the u.s decided to withdraw its delegation where when the iranians were [4:31] expecting a signature of a framework for future dealings and now uh we see after that negotiation [4:39] that round the u.s enforced a blockade and now tonight the first incident happened i suspect the [4:48] iranians will think twice before going to pakistan i'm not sure yet what the official line but for [4:54] president trump to say that he's sending his vice president to islamabad would suggest that there [5:00] must have been some sort of agreement perhaps with iran that this would go ahead at some point yeah i [5:05] think he's not reading iranians well he thought that sending the vice president and attacking a ship [5:11] can go in parallel that doesn't work with iran that never worked in the past and i i suspect it will not [5:18] work in the future when you have a dealing when you are dealing diplomatically with iran you have to [5:25] stick to diplomacy i think that cannot really go in parallel with attacking iranian assets and expecting [5:32] them to just uh you know sit on the on their hands and go for negotiations because they don't feel they [5:38] are the weaker they the weaker after 40 days of war all right alex vatanka let me just ask you we've had [5:44] a soundbite from centcom but i just want to ask you uh what about what uh professor ahmadian said there i [5:50] mean did trump misread this situation by announcing that he's sending his vice president to islamabad [5:57] can you negotiate credibly while also seizing ships and threatening infrastructure or does that harden [6:05] positions on both sides look we can discuss the merits of the best way of negotiating certainly in [6:13] this case us and iran for a long time because the two countries obviously have a long history of [6:18] successes and many failures in terms of negotiations going back to the birth of the islamic republic [6:24] in 1979 but this american president likes to look like he's the strong one and that you know he walks [6:31] into the room and he gets what he wants that is his style that's not just unique to how he's dealing [6:37] with the iranians the iranian side have very obviously and consciously refused to play that [6:43] game you know other countries have been more than happy to pamper the american president [6:48] but not this islamic republic president trump has kind of ignored that and he continues to sort of [6:54] if you will play this muscular approach time will show if it works or not but i go back to a point i [7:00] made earlier end of the day um there's so much at stake uh based on iranian estimates 57 of the economy [7:09] of iran uh was was impacted or lost because of this war that just happened for 40 almost 40 days okay [7:16] iranian leaders uh have an american president they don't like is an american president who killed [7:21] their supreme leader they have a lot of reason to be angry with him but the question is what's best [7:25] for them as as a country they can you know bring iran as a country to a waste just to prove a point [7:30] that they don't negotiate with trump but is that really the smartest way forward for for the country [7:35] of iran okay that's something that the leadership of iran professor ahmadian to respond to that in [7:39] just a moment but before that gentlemen we've just now had video from centcom about that incident that [7:45] incident that we talked about earlier involving the tosca let's listen to what that sounded like [7:52] motor vessel tosca motor vessel tosca vacate your engine room vacate your engine room we're prepared to [8:17] subject you to disabling fire so centcom u.s central command releasing now video of that incident [8:31] involving the tosca which the u.s says it's uh seized professor ahmadian your initial reaction to that [8:38] well i think i think that's an escalation clear escalation the siege in itself according to [8:43] international law is an act of war now seizure of an iranian ship of course is an escalation within that [8:49] act of war i think the iranians have viewed it that way and are reacting to it the same way but [8:55] on the points that were raised i think uh you know we have to look back the iranians made many proposals [9:02] not to be dragged into this war but none worked with this president and previous administrations only [9:08] the only uh time that it worked was with president obama who also went for a give and take not uh surrender [9:17] uh but this president has been forcing or trying to enforce a surrender capitulation according to [9:24] whitkov he he is shocked why the iranians are not capitulating the iranians will not capitulate i think [9:31] what's lacking in this line of uh you know argument is iran's independence this is a very important issue [9:39] for any iranian inside the country and outside it and i think the iranians what they paid in this war [9:46] and what they are willing to pay is way beyond what they have already paid to keep their country [9:53] independent and we have to weigh in israel as well right it's not about iran and us only israel plays [9:59] a key role to derail any negotiations between iran the united states and i think so far they have been [10:06] very effective in previous uh rounds and in this one alex watanka your response to that look again we can [10:14] relitigate so much of the history here in terms of who did what to whom but end of the day we've never [10:20] been here before there's so much at stake there's so much at stake for the country of iran the people [10:25] of iran who are suffering there's so much at stake for the united states a war that the american people [10:30] don't want and we all know there's so much at stake for the gulf i mean the gulf countries have invested [10:36] years preparing themselves for post-oil economies and they didn't want this war they argued against this war [10:41] and now they're paying the price for it so there are so many countries that have so much at stake [10:45] here and and it's you know it just i maybe i'm being too hopeful here but i i can i cannot remember [10:52] another moment where we were so close to something that is disastrous more than we've already seen [10:57] so it would be best to put everything from the past aside and focus ahead and if there is a question [11:04] of what iran does with its nuclear program and they're saying they don't want a nuclear bomb that's enough [11:09] for trump then you have to reassure you again you bring your technical experts in and if as the old [11:14] saying goes if there is a will there is a way uh and that remains to be the case today as far as i'm [11:20] concerned they have to go out there and prove it professor ahmadian a lot of stake what is iran [11:24] prepared to show flexibility on today i think it has shown a lot of flexibility so far i mean the [11:31] the foreign minister of oman said so the you the uk uh official who was in the room when the war [11:38] started the negotiations before the war he said iran showed immense flexibility we're not talking [11:44] about history here just last week there was discussion in pakistan right after it a blockade [11:53] was enforced against iran the u.s president is viewing any sign of iran moving towards discussion [12:01] and diplomacy as a sign of weakness and he's willing to strip it off its leverage as he sees [12:06] but will iran be be willing today to accept a partial agreement that postpones the key issues [12:13] the key disputes or does it fundamentally clash with its negotiating doctrine would you be prepared to [12:20] accept a framework and then discuss the key issues much later on i think that that's a very uh very much [12:27] present uh i think on the table opportunity for both parties to sign on as i said last week the [12:33] iranians were like we we are getting to a framework but all of a sudden the u.s we drew its team [12:39] there are clear issues you can't just solve them all but you can get to a framework for discussions on [12:46] sensitive issues but but agreeing on the basics that you know some sort of transparency on iran's [12:54] nuclear program opening of the strait and sanctions relief iran cannot get out of this war without [13:01] an economic outcome after its infrastructure being targeted after these years of sanctions [13:08] suffocating its society that would be suicide for iran to let go of its leverage for something that [13:15] might come or might not they have to guarantee something out of this all right gentlemen thank [13:19] you both very much for joining us on al jazeera we'll leave it there for now hassan ahmadian [13:23] professor at the university of tehran and alex watanka joining us there in washington dc thank you [13:29] both very much for your time