Iran-US nuclear talks face hurdles despite Lebanon ceasefire optimism

[0:00] All right. Let's discuss these latest developments now with Barbara Slavin, who's a distinguished fellow at the Simpson Center and a specialist on U.S. foreign policy and Iran. [0:09] She's in Washington, D.C. Thank you so much for your time again, Barbara. Thanks for joining us on Al Jazeera. [0:15] Let's start with the big picture first. Do you think the ceasefire announced in Lebanon will make it easier for Tehran and Washington to reach an agreement? [0:25] Well, I think it will help, but it's how should we put it? It's necessary, but not sufficient. [0:32] There are serious differences between the United States and Iran, at least as we understand their positions, particularly when it comes to the nuclear question. [0:43] So this helps the atmosphere. It will make it easier. [0:47] But there have to be these understandings reached between the United States and Iran on the most serious issues. [0:55] Lebanon, unfortunately, for both Iran and the United States, is a side issue. It is not the meat of the issue. [1:02] Okay. We'll get into the nuclear issue in just a moment. I just wanted to ask you about the Iranian foreign minister, when reacting to the ceasefire announcement in Lebanon, said that they needed to be a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, [1:17] which we know Prime Minister Netanyahu has said is not going to happen. Do you think that could complicate things on the Iran-Washington front? [1:26] I don't think so. I think that Iran understands that the Israelis are not going anywhere. [1:35] I think from their point of view, it's sufficient for the Israelis to stop bombing Beirut, to stop these mass casualty attacks, because the optics of that were certainly terrible. [1:48] But I think the Iranians understand that the Israelis intend to remain in southern Lebanon for quite some time. [1:55] All right. Barbara, let's now talk about the nuclear issue, because this, of course, is one of the big sticking points. [2:00] President Trump, when speaking to reporters earlier outside the White House, gave more details about the negotiations with Iran in relation to the nuclear issue. [2:11] Let's listen to what he has to say, and I'll ask you about it right after that. [2:15] Very important is that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon, and they've agreed to that. [2:21] Iran's agreed to that, and they've agreed to it very powerfully. [2:25] They've agreed to give us back the nuclear dust. [2:28] It's way underground because of the attack we made with the B-2 bombers. [2:31] So we have a lot of agreement with Iran, and I think something's going to happen very positive. [2:36] So, Barbara, President Trump says there that Iran has agreed to give back the nuclear dust, in his own words there. [2:44] What do you make of that, and do you think they're seeing eye-to-eye on this nuclear issue? [2:49] Well, first of all, Iran has insisted for years that it does not have any intention to make nuclear weapons. [2:55] And, of course, that was in the preamble of the nuclear agreement that Donald Trump left unilaterally in 2018. [3:02] As for the so-called nuclear dust, this is actually gas, and it is buried deep under rubble. [3:10] I'm not aware that the Iranians have agreed to ship it out of the country. [3:15] What they have said is that they're willing to retrieve it and to downblend it so that it's no longer such a high concentration of U-235, [3:24] so it's not so close to weapons-grade uranium. [3:27] If there's some new understanding about actually exporting this material, that would be a major concession on the part of the Iranians. [3:37] All right, Barbara, let's get the view now from Tehran. [3:39] Joining us is Abbas Aslani, a senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies. [3:46] Abbas, your reaction to what President Trump has said earlier this evening, that Iran has agreed to almost everything, including not having a nuclear weapon. [3:57] Is that the case? [4:01] You know, Iran also in the past had said that they are not seeking nuclear weapon. [4:07] That is, you know, for sure. [4:08] But there have been some new demands by the United States that were raised back in Islamabad that was maximalist from the Iranian point of view. [4:19] And the U.S. somehow raised those in the last minute during the talks, which in some ways prevented a final understanding on the framework of that potential deal. [4:30] And this, you know, goalpost moving and shifting is somehow from Iranian sources' perspective hindering the progress in the talks. [4:44] So, and they say that, you know, those positive remarks by the American officials aim to ease and calm the market rather than to reflect the real breakthrough in the talks. [4:58] But, Abbas, are there any areas of overlap here between the two sides to make Donald Trump say that a deal could be reached as soon as this weekend? [5:12] There has been discussions, you know, but sometimes we see political shifting from the U.S. side. [5:18] But they have made progress, including in the nuclear issue to some extent, as well as straight-off hormones and other issues like the cessation of the hostilities or when it comes to the lifting of the sanctions. [5:33] But nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. [5:37] And the momentum or the trend sometimes is positive, sometimes negative in the talks. [5:45] This is the nature of Iran-U.S. negotiations. [5:48] This was also the case in the past. [5:50] But this time we are seeing much more fluctuation of this kind. [5:54] And every issue or every, you know, discussion on a specific topic can impact others. [6:03] So, that's why I think we cannot, you know, predict the final outcome in the middle of negotiations. [6:09] And we can say a deal is done when it's, you know, over. [6:13] All right. [6:13] Barbara, Abbas says nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. [6:18] What do you see as sticking points that risks derailing progress? [6:23] Well, Iran has always insisted that it has a right to enrich uranium on its own soil. [6:30] It has agreed to suspend enrichment for a period of time. [6:36] We heard that in Islamabad last weekend, Iran offered to suspend enrichment for five years. [6:43] Reportedly, J.D. Vance wanted 20 years. [6:46] Donald Trump has said he wants in perpetuity. [6:49] So, I think there needs to be some agreement on at least a lengthy suspension of enrichment. [6:56] There also has to be an agreement on downblending or sending out the highly enriched uranium, [7:03] some 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium, which Iran still possesses. [7:09] There would need to be substantial sanctions relief or unfreezing of assets, I think, to sweeten this deal. [7:19] So, look, I mean, if Donald Trump wants an agreement that he can say is better somehow than the Obama-era deal, [7:26] I think that's eminently doable. [7:29] But if he's going to insist on no enrichment forever, and if he's not going to be willing to agree to substantial sanctions relief, [7:38] I don't think he's going to be able to get there. [7:41] We're not in the room. [7:42] We don't know what the Pakistanis are saying to the Iranians, what they're saying to the United States. [7:47] But, you know, there is a possibility, but both sides have to give a little. [7:54] It has to be, as Javad Zarif used to say, the former foreign minister, win-win, or it's not going to work. [8:00] Abbas Aslani, what is Iran willing to give at this stage for this to work? [8:08] And what internal dynamics right now in Iran could bolster this deal, this agreement, if it were to happen? [8:17] You know, the internal dynamics in the country is not in a way to somehow contribute to the process [8:25] because, you know, some elites or average citizens or population are not, may not be supporting those talks [8:35] because they are saying that every time that there has been negotiations and the United States and Israel have been attacking the country. [8:43] Okay. [8:43] This is not the whole society, but there is a major part of society who opposes those talks. [8:48] But in the meantime, you know, this is not meant to be an endless war. [8:54] So that's why Iran is trying to somehow translate those, let's say, achievements in the ground into, let's say, long-term opportunities. [9:05] And that's why we are seeing that those negotiations are taking place. [9:10] Thank you. [9:10] And I think that's important to take note that if they can find a middle ground or not. [9:14] Thank you both very much for that.