Iran stalls talks as Hormuz crisis deepens: US seizure sparks tensions & China steps In

[0:00] is life for us in tehran we're hearing from the iranian foreign minister basar akji any update [0:05] on iran's position or preconditions for these talks well the situation in tehran is very [0:14] complicated it seems like there is no clear intention for iran's to go and join the negotiating [0:20] table in islamabad and at the same time there is a flurry of diplomatic efforts in the past 24 hours [0:27] especially between iran's foreign minister and pakistan's foreign minister there was a two [0:34] phone calls between them and in the last one we hear from abbas araqji emphasizing the stance and [0:41] the position of iran's position saying that the threatening rhetoric and also the attacks on [0:52] the commercial vessels is a fundamental uh obstacles for joining that diplomatic process so [0:59] that as a situation is complicated but there is no clear intention from iran's to join the [1:08] negotiating table but might things change later in the coming hours now what about the state of [1:16] what's going on in the strait of hormuz this is the sticking point is it not and of course that [1:20] iranian cargo ship being boarded by u.s troops yes indeed the naval blockade and the recent attack [1:29] from u.s navy make the situation over the status of hormuz is very complicated and very sensitive [1:37] that the iranian side and also the reaction from iranian officials here comes from many officials [1:45] especially from ismail bakai the spokesperson for foreign minister and also from khatam al-anbiya which [1:51] is the headquarters for armed forces here the situation is my to be there might be a real [1:57] retaliation from iran's iranian forces as the the commander of khatam al-anbiya headquarters saying [2:05] in the past 24 hours there might be a retaliation but they held their attack because there is a families [2:12] of crew members and they want to avoid the uh violation or to avoid the civilians injuries in [2:20] that shipping so uh the situation there is also is very intricate is very delicate and might be any [2:27] escalation or de-escalation uh it's it's also upon the the the next few hours thank you very much [2:37] indeed al-migdad rohaid joining us live from tehran china has criticized that u.s attack and seizure of [2:45] an iranian cargo ship in the strait of hormuz on sunday the foreign ministry urged all parties to take [2:50] advantage of the window for peace and to restore the normal flow of traffic the situation in the [2:57] strait of hormuz is sensitive and complex china expresses concern over the united states falsed [3:02] interception of relevant vessels and hopes that the party is concerned will act in a responsible [3:08] manner honors the ceasefire agreement avoid aggravating confrontation and escalating tensions [3:14] and create the necessary condition for the restoration of normal passage through the strait [3:21] iran and russia's foreign ministers have also held a phone call to discuss the ceasefire moscow says that [3:25] iran confirmed it'll be doing everything in its power to ensure uninterrupted passage of russian ships [3:30] and cargo through the strait of hormuz now marco vicenzino is a geopolitical risk specialist and a [3:37] global strategy advisor and he joins us now from new york what's your read of this situation at the [3:42] moment marco listen i think um deep down inside the reality is is that iran wants to negotiate [3:51] but the also reality is is that it doesn't want to be perceived as negotiating from a position of [3:57] weakness optics count a lot here because it doesn't want to be seen weak as it's among its own people [4:04] internationally and what i mean by that also is that it will take what you call its reluctance it'll [4:10] demonstrate a reluctance to negotiate but that reluctance is strategic it's not emotional it's [4:17] transactional many ways and it's not in any way i would say conciliatory by putting up such a face by [4:24] putting up such a posture being gradual bringing methodical uh it wants to also have key states and key [4:32] countries sort of help out in the process to mediate once again it provides that mediation [4:38] third-party mediation particularly from a big country like china that can help save face it can [4:44] provide off ramps it can help with climb downs i think in this sense iran what it really wants to do [4:50] also by buying time and taking the slow gradual route what it does that it expands the portfolio [4:57] beyond purely the nuclear agenda they want to involve also the idea of sanctions of lifting of [5:03] sanctions and other ones such as security guarantees so what they're trying to do is play a very slow [5:09] game not to be perceived as dealing from a position of weakness yeah i mean the thing marco is here [5:15] that the nuclear subject is the biggest sinking block is it not and is there a way of perhaps [5:22] getting an off-ramp on that i mean there's been several years there's been several ones i mean one [5:28] was that i think the u.s recently rejected was a russian proposal to take in uh you know this uh the [5:35] the uh iranian nuclear material uh that was under that's pretty much been on the debate for a very long [5:41] time basically to store it the u.s rejected that that had been something that was put on the table [5:47] back even during the jcpoa uh what you call the obama deal that was also put on the table never was [5:54] taken but it's it's something it's many things from the past many topics from the past may be raised [5:59] again but perhaps obviously in a different form uh so i think in this sense um it's gonna it's not a [6:06] short game this is more of a long game we're taking care it's gonna require strategic patience [6:11] whether the american side has that strategic patience to want us to go to allow this to go on [6:17] remains a big question mark there may be a resort back to armed up to hostilities again use of armed [6:23] force we call major hostilities so iran is when it's in its ability in its pursuit of that long [6:30] gradual game it also has to be fully aware that the clock is ticking and not to underestimate the [6:36] strategic the patience of the american side here so then once i go back to that point about strategic [6:43] about that strategic key allies of iran or partners of iran and out of the u.s to get to the table and [6:50] try to help facilitate this process and i think in this sense for the from the iranian perspective [6:56] china has a major role to play because they come to the table with real leverage real resources they [7:01] obviously need they need iranian resources which they purchased the majority of and to be able to [7:07] use the chinese in a way in their style of diplomacy which is more reserved behind the scenes uh very [7:15] calibrated rhetoric to use the chinese front as a way to be able to you can say kind of de-escalate or [7:22] kind of make concessions without being seen as making concessions or actually being weak that's where i [7:28] think china right now has been involved in the process but i think as time goes by china will [7:33] be increased increasingly playing a more uh prominent role well it is interesting to note that [7:39] the pakistani foreign minister actually did have a meeting before this started with the his chinese [7:44] counterpart so that kind of reaffirms what you're saying uh that there is china behind the scenes playing [7:50] out uh a game of diplomacy yeah i mean listen for them and for many other countries around the world [7:58] obviously trade is critical if you don't have the movement of of resources of products and [8:04] particularly a country like china which is basically the bottom line it's the world's global assembly [8:09] line uh and plus all the energy most of its energy it's dependent upon the middle east um as a risk so [8:15] it has it's not just a diplomatic role to play it has a key economic vested interest in making sure [8:22] that this crisis at least stabilizes and the whole moose the strait of hormuz is opened [8:27] and commerce at least maybe not in a very 100 secure way but at least the vessels are flowing [8:34] into the gulf and coming out of the gulf itself so i think right now they don't they didn't want [8:39] to go immediately to the front lines in terms of diplomacy they've allowed i think backing the [8:44] pakistani in the pakistani process but if that process doesn't start to yield results uh fairly soon [8:51] on the next days and weeks you'll see an increased uh a more prominent chinese role and in indirect [8:57] involvement so far it's been behind the scenes and indirect but i think it'll be increasingly grow [9:02] get more involved publicly in order to ensure that there is not a return to the use of major hostilities [9:08] and armed force uh mark do you have any grounds for optimism here i said optimism i wouldn't say pessimism [9:16] i'd say realism it's important to be realistic about this one's expectations need to be kept in [9:21] check and to be very very sober what i mean by that is understanding that this is not a conflict [9:27] that just started in recent weeks it didn't just start on on february 28th uh it was a stage of a [9:34] wider conflict that's been going on for a very long time and if these event if what is can you get what [9:40] took what's taking years and arguably decades you're not going to be able to resolve in days and weeks [9:45] this is a very long process ahead that's going to require the participation of all major powers [9:51] in order to prevent like i said another outbreak of major hostilities which threatens to bring the [9:57] world the global economy down a vicious downward cycle marco thank you marco vicenzino as you have [10:05] political risk specialist joining us there from new york [10:15] you