Iran says it has seized two cargo ships in Strait of Hormuz after three vessels attacked — BBC News

[0:00] Hello, I'm Azdeh Meshuri. Welcome to the program, which is live from Islamabad, [0:04] where we were expecting peace talks between the United States and Iran to end weeks of war. [0:09] But those talks are now very much uncertain. [0:13] In the meantime, in the last few hours, we've been receiving reports of attacks on at least three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. [0:21] Now, the latest we're hearing is that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran [0:25] is claiming that they've transferred two ships to Iranian waters for what they've said are inspections. [0:32] We'll have more on that in a bit, and our BBC Verify team is also going to break down what they've been gathering. [0:39] But in the meantime, let's look at the state of play right now. [0:42] President Trump has extended a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. [0:47] He says it will last until Iran presents a unified proposal [0:52] and until discussions are concluded one way or the other. [0:57] The United States has countered Iran's effective blockade in the Strait of Hormuz [1:00] with one of its own on Iranian ports, and President Trump has said it will continue. [1:06] That's a problem for Iran. [1:07] That's said it won't return to the negotiations until that U.S. blockade is lifted. [1:13] Now, if you remember, we did think J.D. Vance, the U.S. vice president, [1:16] would board a plane yesterday to reach Islamabad for peace talks, but that trip is now on hold. [1:23] So what now? [1:24] As I was saying earlier, we've been receiving those breaking news lines [1:28] that at least three cargo ships have been shot at by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps [1:32] in the Strait of Hormuz. [1:34] As Tehran continues to impose those restrictions on the key waterway, [1:38] the BBC has confirmed that the vessels are registered in Greece, the UAE, and Panama. [1:44] But so far, no casualties have been reported. [1:48] So let's look a little closer at what we're hearing. [1:51] I have our diplomatic correspondent, Paul Adams, who's here with us now. [1:55] Paul, the situation seems to be changing every hour. [1:59] What is the latest right now? [2:01] Well, as you say, you know, we've seen an escalation this morning as a day in the Gulf, [2:06] close to and around the Strait of Hormuz. [2:09] And I think that was always a possibility, [2:12] given that in the wake of the American interception and firing on Iranian vessels [2:20] and intercepting them, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said that they were likely to retaliate. [2:25] Now, that could have been put off if there had been a successful round of negotiations here. [2:29] We could have been talking about those negotiations right now, but it hasn't happened. [2:36] And as a result, I think we are seeing that slightly inevitable escalation in the Gulf itself. [2:43] That doesn't necessarily mean that the ceasefire is in jeopardy. [2:47] Obviously, Donald Trump has extended it for an indefinite period of time, [2:51] saying he's willing to allow space for negotiation. [2:54] But with those tensions so high, it is always possible that things could escalate [3:01] and a kind of conflict at sea could spill over once again into a conflict on land. [3:07] So I think we are in that very febrile situation now where Pakistan, [3:12] which had really high hopes of hosting another round of talks, [3:16] possibly a decisive round of talks this week, [3:19] I think probably feels that it's sort of slipped out of its grasp, at least for now. [3:24] And it's worth remembering just a couple of dates in Donald Trump's diary that are coming up. [3:29] The king, the British king, is due in Washington on Monday for a state visit. [3:35] A couple of weeks after that, Donald Trump is due to go to China for an even more important visit. [3:40] He doesn't want the war in Iran, the kind of messy, unpredictable, [3:47] possibly about to break out into the open again war, hanging over him. [3:52] So I think he is going to be keen for some kind of deal, [3:56] even if it's a deal that patches over the immediate issues [4:00] and kicks forward the negotiations on the big stuff to the future. [4:04] And I bet you the Iranians are acutely conscious of those two events [4:08] and are kind of playing on them. [4:10] Right, and trying to run down the clock. [4:12] Paul, thank you for that. [4:13] Paul's going to be with us for the rest of the day as he's watching those developments. [4:18] Ben Chu at BBC Verify has also been trying to pick apart what we're hearing. [4:23] There have been reports on some of these attacks by the UK Maritime Agency as well. [4:27] Here he is with more. [4:29] The day after President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, [4:33] three vessels have come under fire in the Strait of Hormuz. [4:36] Here's what we know about them. [4:37] BBC Verify understands that the first was a container ship [4:41] called the Epamimondas, which is owned by a Greek company. [4:45] According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operation, UKMTO, [4:49] the body to which vessels report dangerous incidents, [4:51] the vessel was approached by one IRGC gunboat at 3.55 GMT, [4:57] while 15 nautical miles from Oman. [5:00] Now, IRGC refers to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, [5:04] and it was fired upon, resulting in heavy damage to the bridge. [5:08] Importantly, the Epamimondas was not transmitting its position via radio transponder [5:13] while crossing the Strait, possibly to avoid detection. [5:16] It only pops up here. [5:18] And this underlines that ship tracking data only gives us a partial picture [5:21] of maritime activity in the Strait. [5:23] And we have to use other sources, such as satellite data, [5:26] to show the fullest possible picture. [5:29] Now, a second ship, which, according to the maritime intelligence firm Vanguard, [5:33] was the MSC Francesca, was fired upon at some time after 05.05 GMT, [5:40] while approximately six nautical miles off the coast of Iran. [5:44] Third ship, which we understand was a Panama flag vessel called the Euphoria, [5:50] also reported being fired upon at 6.38 GMT, [5:54] eight nautical miles west of Iran, [5:56] though this one did not specify it was attacked by the IRGC. [6:02] Now, Iran has said the Strait will remain closed [6:05] while the US maintains its own blockade on Iranian ports. [6:09] And Donald Trump has said that the US blockade will remain in force [6:13] despite announcing the ceasefire extension. [6:17] US CENTCOM has claimed its blockade is working [6:19] and that the US Navy has directed 28 vessels [6:22] to turn around or return to port since it began. [6:24] Although, Verify estimates, using ship tracking data and other sources, [6:28] that a number of Iranian-linked vessels [6:30] have actually crossed the US's blockade line, [6:33] shown here since it was imposed, in one direction or another. [6:37] It's also worth noting that the attacks on commercial shipping [6:39] by the IRGC are at odds with President Trump's claims [6:43] that Iran's offensive naval capabilities have been totally destroyed. [6:47] That was Ben Chiu at BBC Verify. [6:52] So, as we're trying to understand the viability of these peace talks, [6:56] whether they do happen and whether people do travel here to Islamabad, [7:00] what has Iran been saying? [7:01] We know that the adviser to Iran's Speaker of Parliament, [7:05] Mohammad Varaghalibaf, [7:06] who was expected to lead the Iranian delegation here, [7:09] his adviser has called President Donald Trump's ceasefire extension meaningless [7:13] and has even accused it of being a ploy for a surprise attack. [7:18] That's how deep the mistrust is between the two sides. [7:22] Now, our chief international correspondent, Lise Doucette, [7:25] has been reporting from Iran [7:26] under the condition that none of her material is used by our BBC Persian service. [7:30] That's actually a restriction that all international media outlets [7:34] must abide by when they're reporting from inside of Iran. [7:37] She's been able to speak to not only officials but also people on the ground there [7:43] to get the view from Iran. [7:45] Take a listen. [7:46] The first reactions to President Trump's ceasefire announcement [7:50] on social media by official aides and spokespersons [7:53] were predictable, sceptical, defiant. [7:57] An adviser to Iran's lead negotiator described it as meaningless. [8:01] He said it was just a ploy to buy more time for a surprise attack. [8:06] Two previous rounds of negotiations last year and this year [8:10] were shattered by surprise attacks. [8:13] So it underscores the deep distrust here of diplomacy. [8:17] Iran, though, has its own commitments to keep under this truce. [8:21] But it says it's not going to open that strategic Strait of Hormuz [8:25] until the U.S. lifts its naval blockade of Iran's ports. [8:30] So that's where the impasse is now [8:32] and there's no sense of how and when it will be resolved. [8:35] When we speak to Iranians here, we hear a range of views. [8:39] Iranians who are taking to the squares of this city every night [8:42] in response to their government's call are also defiant. [8:46] Others we speak to are just trying to get on with their lives, [8:50] exhausted by years of failed nuclear talks, [8:54] sanctions, spiraling prices, tighter security and surveillance. [8:59] All of the many restrictions on their freedoms and on their futures. [9:03] That was our chief international correspondent, Lise Doucette. [9:10] So what does all of this mean when it comes to nuclear negotiations? [9:13] One of the biggest stumbling blocks in all of this. [9:16] Iran wants to continue enriching uranium. [9:19] Donald Trump says that nuclear program is exactly one of his core aims, [9:23] controlling it, restricting it. [9:25] One person who was involved in the initial negotiations for that JCPOA deal, [9:32] the nuclear deal under the Obama administration, [9:35] is Alan Eyre with Middle East Institute now. [9:37] He was formerly from the State Department. [9:40] Alan, good to have you. [9:41] Those negotiations were extremely complex. [9:44] They took a great deal of time. [9:47] What were your expectations this week [9:49] when it comes to this next round of negotiations, [9:52] if they had happened? [9:57] What's happening now reminds me of the first three years [10:00] we did nuclear negotiations with Iran, [10:03] from 2010 to 2013. [10:05] But neither side was really that eager to negotiate. [10:09] It was performed, punctured. [10:11] We spent as much time trying to negotiate [10:13] about where to meet to negotiate [10:14] as about actual issues. [10:16] So what I'm taking away from the developments [10:18] of the last 40 hours [10:20] is that for a variety of reasons, [10:22] neither side is really that keen to negotiate with the other. [10:27] They're each vying for sort of more marginal leverage. [10:33] And, Alan, could you remind us, [10:35] when Donald Trump stepped away from the JCPOA deal [10:39] in his first term in office, [10:41] what was he saying simply wasn't good enough about that deal? [10:46] I think he said because it allowed some indigenous enrichment, [10:49] it allowed Iran to continue enriching on Iranian soil. [10:53] There were some time limitations in the deal. [10:56] So, yeah, it wasn't a perfect deal, [10:58] but it was far better than the alternative. [11:01] And had President Trump wished to improve it, [11:03] he had the option of negotiating a better, stronger deal [11:06] without ripping up the JCPOA. [11:08] Unfortunately, he chose to rip it up. [11:13] And, Alan, right now, [11:14] obviously we're seeing these events [11:15] in the Strait of Hormuz. [11:17] We're seeing that control of Strait of Hormuz, [11:19] which is the long-term goal Iran has [11:21] of declaring its sovereignty, [11:23] as it put it, over the Strait [11:25] as a key challenge here. [11:27] But these are different people [11:28] across the negotiating table in some ways, aren't they? [11:31] Abbas Archi was involved in those initial negotiations, [11:34] but how has the regime changed? [11:36] Because Donald Trump is claiming [11:38] that it has been regime change. [11:40] Well, there has been regime change, [11:43] but the new regime is more militaristic [11:44] and more hardline. [11:45] And it's also lost a coordinating figure at the top [11:49] in that when Ayatollah Khomeini, the father, was alive, [11:52] he settled internal disputes [11:54] and he sort of laid down the line [11:56] and people followed it. [11:57] You don't have that now. [11:58] His son doesn't have that power. [12:00] So domestic squabbles among various factions [12:03] that could have been solved more quickly [12:06] probably are taking a little longer now. [12:09] Plus, as I said, you've got a government [12:11] that's trying to work out relationships [12:13] internally with each other [12:14] and are really not in the mood to negotiate [12:17] with a country that's killed most of its leadership [12:20] and is still attacking them. [12:24] So, Alan, what do you make of the road to diplomacy now? [12:27] Is there any way to bridge that deep mistrust [12:30] between the two countries? [12:32] Not just deep mistrust. [12:33] It's just that, you know, it's like a slot machine. [12:36] If everything is lined up, you get a payout. [12:38] Everything is not lined up in either the United States, [12:41] which is approaching domestic midterm elections. [12:44] So President Trump is loath to give any sort of carrot [12:48] or inducement to Iran. [12:49] And it's not lined up in Iran because, as I said, [12:53] you're lacking... [12:53] It's a new system, new people, new relationships, [12:56] and they're not willing to show leniency [12:59] toward the United States. [13:01] So, yeah, I'm quite pessimistic [13:04] about the chance of a negotiated outcome. [13:07] Far more likely that this ceasefire just keeps rolling. [13:12] But ceasefires are intrinsically unstable. [13:15] So I think escalation is in the cards [13:17] unless something significant changes. [13:21] Yeah, that is the big question now, isn't it? [13:23] Alan, thank you so much for your insight. [13:25] Former State Department official [13:26] who is now with the Middle East Institute. [13:29] Now, the last time that we were here in Islamabad [13:31] for that first round of talks, [13:34] the Iranians had made a key demand [13:36] before negotiations could begin. [13:38] They said there needed to be a ceasefire [13:39] between Lebanon and Israel. [13:41] There is a 10-day truce that is now in place. [13:45] The two sides are due to have another round [13:47] of diplomatic talks on Thursday, [13:49] hosted by the White House. [13:51] With more on the situation there [13:53] and how that fits in with everything going on [13:55] between the United States and Iran [13:56] is our Middle East correspondent, Yolande, now. [14:00] So, I mean, when it comes to Lebanon, [14:03] at dawn this morning there are reports from Lebanon [14:05] that one person was killed and two wounded [14:07] in what was said to be an Israeli drone strike. [14:10] We've asked the Israeli military about that [14:12] and it says it's unaware of such an attack. [14:15] But this comes after yesterday the Israeli military said [14:18] that there were drones and rockets launched by Hezbollah [14:22] targeting its soldiers who remain on the ground [14:25] in their thousands in the south of the country. [14:29] And Hezbollah said it had done that [14:31] because of violations of the ceasefire, [14:33] saying that there had been attacks on Lebanese civilians [14:36] by the Israeli military, that the Israeli military [14:39] was continuing to destroy homes and villages [14:42] in southern Lebanon, [14:44] which Israel sees really as being a Hezbollah stronghold. [14:49] And this just underlines for you how fragile [14:52] that 10-day ceasefire that came into force [14:54] on Friday morning, how fragile it remains. [14:58] And Hezbollah has made clear [14:59] that it opposes those direct talks scheduled to take place [15:03] in Washington at the State Department on Thursday [15:06] between Israel and Lebanon, [15:09] these two countries that have technically remained at war [15:12] since the State of Israel was created in 1948. [15:16] Nayim Qasim, who's the leader of Hezbollah, [15:18] said that the talks were futile. [15:21] The Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, [15:23] came out defending them, [15:25] saying it's not a weakness, [15:26] it's not a retreat to hold such talks. [15:28] And basically laying out how, for Lebanon, [15:31] the objectives there are to end Israel's occupation [15:34] of southern Lebanon, [15:36] to have the Lebanese army deployed right up to the border, [15:39] basically about regaining sovereignty. [15:42] Israel, when it talks about its objectives in these talks, [15:45] has got a long-term goal of having a peace deal with Lebanon. [15:50] It wants a proper delineation of the border. [15:52] It wants to make sure that Hezbollah is completely disarmed [15:56] and it can no longer pose a threat to its communities in the north, [16:01] which have been, in parallel to the war in Iran, [16:04] have been under rocket fire and drone attack. [16:08] So the Israelis have been saying [16:10] that they will maintain a presence on the ground [16:13] in southern Lebanon. [16:15] So that is going to be, you know, [16:17] a real obstacle when it comes to these talks. [16:20] That was our Middle East correspondent, Yolande Nell. [16:25] Now, as a reminder, [16:27] we are continuing to receive these breaking news reports, [16:30] developments in the last few hours, [16:31] about multiple attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. [16:35] The latest we know is that three cargo ships have been attacked. [16:39] Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is claiming [16:43] they've seized two of those ships, [16:45] that they're transferring them to Iran's waters [16:48] for what they called inspection. [16:51] And that is happening as that big question [16:54] keeps hovering above us here, [16:56] which is will the two sides choose the path of diplomacy [17:00] or are we going to see further conflict? [17:03] We'll bring all the latest for you here from Islamabad, [17:06] but for now we're going to take a short break. [17:09] Around the world and across the UK, [17:11] this is BBC News.