Iran latest: The widening gap between rhetoric and reality

[0:00] This week, our coverage of the war on Iran starts with the media story coming out of Israel. [0:06] Citizens there are not getting the full picture. [0:09] Military sensors are filtering what they see. [0:12] Israel is growing more oppressive, whether it's free speech or a new law that could sentence Palestinians to death by execution. [0:20] Translating propaganda and exporting it online, Israel in Persian is the name of the account and it's being used to target Iranians. [0:29] Plus, the Iranian countermeasures. [0:32] They include an internet blackout. [0:34] This is a way for them to show the populace that they are in control. [0:38] And exporting their own content, including AI, in the battle over hearts and minds. [0:44] The fog of war created by the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran is not lifting, it is thickening. [0:57] Mixed messages keep coming out of Washington, rehashed by the day it seems, generating more confusion than clarity. [1:03] In Israel. [1:05] The gap between political rhetoric and the on-the-ground reality has been widening. [1:09] The Netanyahu government's prediction of a quick war to topple Iran's leadership and destroy its nuclear program [1:16] has given way to a reality that is far messier and much more dangerous for Israeli civilians. [1:23] Complicating matters further still is what Israelis are allowed to see of this war. [1:28] That is being tightly controlled. [1:31] Journalists face unprecedented levels of military censorship. [1:35] While being urged to raise morale, rather than just report the facts. [1:39] And Israelis who do push back against the war, or against a controversial new law legalizing the death penalty, [1:47] but only against Palestinians, know that the authorities are out to repress them, if not silence them. [1:53] Benjamin Netanyahu wouldn't put it this way, but five weeks into the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, [2:02] this is what he's up against domestically. [2:05] Iranian missiles keep hitting Israel. [2:07] Israeli targets, causing casualties and severely injuring the country's infrastructure. [2:13] The collapse that Israel was hoping for, of the Iranian government, [2:16] the galvanizing of rebellion there, has not happened. [2:20] Given the multiple fronts and entanglements, Lebanon, the West Bank, Gaza, [2:26] and the unprecedented number of reservists called up, Israel risks running out of soldiers. [2:32] And, like his ally, Donald Trump, Netanyahu has no clear exit strategy. [2:38] What he can be counted on, however, at times like these, [2:41] is having a media strategy, scapegoating his critics. [2:45] The seats of the opposition, what happened to you? [2:50] Raise the morale of our side, and not of the enemy. [2:53] In the theatrics that Netanyahu sometimes indulges in, he says, [2:57] what are you doing in the TV studios? [3:00] Why are you sapping the morale of the public? [3:04] Why are you helping the enemy, not our own people? [3:09] And that's Netanyahu calling out the media, for two and a half years, [3:15] you've done the job designated to you, of being a fully mobilized machine, [3:20] to create consensus for genocide, and now to make sure this war can continue indefinitely, [3:25] and those are your marching orders, and go back to them. [3:29] Those orders, in their most specific form, come from Israel's military censors. [3:34] In war, we're Israelis, before we're journalists, right? [3:37] But what happens in cases where, in Israel's military censors, there's a war going on? [3:38] But what happens in cases where, in Israel's military censors, there's a war going on? [3:38] But what happens in cases where, in Israel's military censors, there's a war going on? [3:39] It demands a sufficient representation of them, [3:40] and we act upon this and tell them not to. [3:42] Any journalist based there, working for foreign outlets or Israeli ones, [3:47] grows used to dealing with them, whether the country is at war or not. [3:51] But reporters and citizens alike say they have never seen censorship to this extent — where it [3:57] can inadvertently put the citizens the censors are supposed to protect at greater risk. [4:03] Nir Gunn-Tars works for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. After a military base was hit by an [4:10] missile he went on X saying it's nice that they put up warning signs about the [4:14] asbestos scattered from the military base throughout the neighborhood [4:18] following the strike but no government official explained what the implications [4:23] and dangers are what the kids are breathing while the soldiers on the base [4:28] walk around in protective suits and masks tightly controlled images and [4:33] carefully shaped narratives from Israel AI material on social media designed to [4:39] exaggerate Iran's military prowess combined with videos first posted weeks [4:44] ago of missile strikes on Israeli targets then reposted and presented as [4:49] new have caused all kinds of confusion with mainstream outlets under the thumb [4:55] of the sensors Israelis are scouring sources online where it is increasingly [5:00] difficult to separate fact from fiction reality from propaganda the image that [5:07] you see out ofейle is very [5:09] very difficult the image that you see out of [5:09] carefully choreographed this is a country self-professed as a democracy but it has a [5:16] military sensor that can and does control the kind of information that can be you know used [5:22] or disseminated by the media but in this war the kind of restrictions that have been imposed are [5:30] unprecedented the only thing you see are damage to civilian areas and so on you know that you're [5:36] not getting the full picture and that in itself tells you that it's something that [5:41] the state doesn't want you to know about they are definitely trying to portray an israel that [5:48] is much more capable of defending itself than it actually is and is implying that iran knows [5:55] less about the country's infrastructure and sensitive sites than it does there is a reason why [6:03] only after the fact when israeli officials are on [6:07] the scene are news crews able to film exact locations of strike sites and why most of these [6:13] videos of sensitive sites being bombed are oftentimes by anonymous people not journalists [6:19] on the ground although the percentage has fallen slightly from roughly 90 percent down to 80 an [6:26] overwhelming majority of jewish israelis still support this war the authorities are out to keep [6:32] it that way cracking down on the relatively small anti-war protests on the streets this [6:38] protestor says she was roughed up just for being there [6:45] another demonstration called after israel's parliament passed a new capital punishment law [6:50] applicable only to palestinians got similar treatment protesters rounded up journalists [6:57] hit by water cannons for the security minister who championed the law itamar ben-gavir its passage [7:04] was a champagne moment worth savoring for this popular [7:10] and sometimes depraved israeli tv comedy show the prospect of executing palestinians was played for [7:17] laughs [7:24] that law essentially forces the death penalty on palestinian prisoners who are convicted of [7:31] terrorism offenses but even within opposition to this law it was on the basis that it would [7:37] threaten potential future israeli hostages [7:40] not the crime of mass executing by hanging Palestinian detainees. [7:46] So it's a problem of process, not of moral depravity. [7:52] And this was an extremely popular bill amongst the Israeli public. [7:56] Would you broadcast it on TV about what they saw and heard? [7:58] Yes, of course. [7:59] I went to the protest in Tel Aviv, and the security forces were very quick to crack down. [8:04] I told them I'm a journalist, I'm, you know, filming, and they took a clearly aggressive position. [8:09] And the death penalty. [8:11] Some people say, well, there will be challenges, it will never really be implemented, even if it is passed. [8:15] You know, I don't think it matters. [8:16] These are signposts of where our country is going, and it is not a good direction. [8:21] With news feeds still dominated by Iran's blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, [8:26] the Israeli occupation of South Lebanon, the missiles still landing in Israel and Iran, [8:32] the typically scant coverage of Israeli settler violence in the West Bank has all but evaporated. [8:38] When the West Bank story does get reported, [8:40] in Israel, the settlers are usually described as rogue operators, [8:46] separate from the state and the army that supports them. [8:52] This week, an American news crew from CNN was confronted by Israeli soldiers in the West Bank. [9:01] Their guns pointed at the journalists, one of whom was put in a chokehold. [9:06] That story made news even in Israel, not because it happened, [9:11] but because of who it happened to. [9:13] It's rare to hear these soldiers speak so openly, especially to foreign media. [9:19] They believe that all of the West Bank is Israel's land, that it is Jewish territory only. [9:25] I watched that report from our colleagues at CNN, and I would never dare do what he did. [9:32] Because had this crew not been an American crew, things would have turned out very different. [9:37] Many of our colleagues were beaten to a pulp. [9:41] They were in similar situations, because they were Palestinian. [9:44] But Israelis don't hear and don't see what happens to Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. [9:51] And at this point, most of them don't care. [9:54] They want to try to show that they are doing something about Israeli perpetrators committing terrorist attacks in the West Bank, [10:02] to show the White House primarily that they're doing something. [10:05] But it's really the system of settlement expansion, annexation. [10:09] Many Israelis will say, oh yes, it's terrorism. [10:10] Many Israelis will say, oh yes, it's terrorism. [10:11] This is terrible. [10:11] These very few people, a handful of bad eggs. [10:16] These very few people, a handful of bad eggs. [10:17] Among this group, how many criminals, how many rotten apples, we need to treat them, just like they treat criminals. [10:24] And what the settler leaders say is that many of them are not even from the settlements, they're troubled youth, [10:28] that they give the entire settlement project a bad name, we better crack down on them so that we can continue expanding the settlement project. [10:34] That's what they say very openly. [10:36] Israel is in an impunity-fueled march. [10:41] towards seeing how far it can go to impose its its domination the largest military operations [10:50] in the west bank in half a century seizing more territory in lebanon still holding 60 of gaza [10:58] that continues as long as israel can get away with it but it only actually becomes overreach [11:05] when blowback arrives when something holds israel to account diplomatically or on the battlefield [11:14] and unless that moment comes i don't expect the israeli side to recognize how far out of its depth [11:25] this may take it staying with israel and the propaganda it has directed at iranians in their [11:34] native tongue this is a playbook we've seen before with palestinians taraknafa is here with more [11:40] since the start of the war on iran one of the most active platforms for messaging aimed at iranians [11:47] has been israel in persian the israelis have become our main source of 텔лس of the incursion [11:49] the Israeli government's official Farsi language account on X. [11:54] It's posted a steady stream of content mocking Iran's leaders, [11:58] framing them as the drivers of this conflict [12:01] and trying to position Israel as a friend of Iranians. [12:06] This week, the account posted this video, [12:08] ridiculing a woman whose home had just been destroyed in an airstrike [12:13] because she was holding a nice handbag. [12:16] There are also these posts which suggested scenes of destruction [12:20] in Tehran had been fabricated by the Iranian government using a paid actor. [12:26] These claims have been thoroughly debunked by fact-checkers, [12:29] but that hasn't stopped this narrative that the Iranians are faking it from spreading, [12:34] including by voices in the Iranian diaspora who are supportive of the Israeli-U.S. war. [12:41] Casting doubt on victims, questioning their legitimacy. [12:44] These are tactics that the Israelis have used before on Palestinians, [12:48] summed up in terms like, [12:50] and that suggests Palestinians have staged their own suffering. [12:55] Another Farsi language account is operated by Mossad, [12:58] Israel's foreign intelligence agency. [13:01] It is being used to openly try and recruit Iranians as spies. [13:06] Just as it has done elsewhere in the region in Arabic, [13:10] Israel's use of Farsi is designed to whitewash its image and shape public opinion, [13:15] leaving Iranians with the realization that even their online spaces have been infiltrated. [13:21] Thanks, Tarek. [13:23] Turning now to the counter-narrative, the one that's coming out of Tehran. [13:27] Officials there have been framing their case to international audiences, [13:31] tailoring their language and ideas accordingly, [13:33] while accusing Western media outlets of distorting the facts of this war. [13:39] Inside Iran, a sweeping internet blackout remains in place, [13:42] severely limiting what people can see and share. [13:46] And a new front has been opened, shaped by some increasingly sophisticated AI content, [13:52] further blurring the line between information and the truth. [13:56] To help us understand the strategy behind all of this, [13:59] we're joined now from Washington by the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for [14:03] Responsible Statecraft, Trita Parsi. [14:07] Mr. Parsi, let's start with this. [14:08] This past week, Iran's president, Massoud Pazeshkian, addressed an open letter to the [14:13] American people, urging them to look beyond what he called a machinery of misinformation [14:19] in the U.S. [14:20] What are the chances of a message like that [14:22] actually cutting through, given the current media environment in America? [14:28] I find the likelihood of that message getting through to be rather limited. [14:33] At the end of the day, the American public is very skeptical of this war. [14:38] Even Trump's voters are starting to turn against this war. [14:41] And certainly they're already very much against going in with ground troops. [14:45] But the Iranian government's ability to be able to take advantage of some of those schisms, [14:51] beyond scoring points, [14:53] on social media, I've not seen any clear signs that there's any success there. [14:59] And again, through the mainstream media, you will hardly be able to get any impact from [15:05] that end. [15:06] But the Iranians are nevertheless doing this because from their standpoint, this is not [15:10] America's war. [15:12] They strongly believe that Israel led America into this war. [15:16] And the more they can hammer that point home with an American audience that already is [15:19] very receptive to that view, particularly on the right, the more they can hammer that [15:21] point home with an American audience that already is very receptive to that view, particularly [15:22] on the right. [15:23] they think they can increase the opposition inside of the U.S. against this war. [15:28] Now, the Iranian state is displaying some online skills here that many in the West were unaware [15:34] that it had. Both the foreign minister and the speaker of the parliament there have acquired [15:38] a fan following on X, and there are AI animations that are in the mix as well. [15:44] What are the core messages being sent here? How effective do you think [16:00] those techniques have been in influencing public opinion outside of Iran? [16:05] It's really fascinating because I don't know if there's been a lot of other major wars that [16:12] simultaneously have been fought on the ground, but also within an arena of meme wars, essentially. [16:22] Various videos produced by both sides, propaganda videos, AI-produced propaganda videos. We really [16:29] haven't seen that until this war. [16:31] The Iranians are clearly scoring some points. Now, whether that is the core reason why [16:37] the public is negative to this war or not is really difficult to disaggregate because at the [16:43] end of the day, the public was overwhelmingly against this war from the outset. It may have [16:48] reinforced their opposition to it. It may have made it stronger, but I don't think it necessarily [16:55] has led to a shift in public opinion. If anything, what has shifted is because of higher gas prices, [17:01] a clear sign that Trump doesn't have a plan. And certainly, I think there will be an even greater [17:07] shift if he goes in with ground troops and you have a large number of American soldiers coming [17:11] home in coffins. [17:13] Let's turn to Iran itself now, the internal narrative there. The Iranian authorities, [17:18] as you know, have largely blacked out the internet there for more than a month now. [17:22] And it's not the first time that this has happened. Give us an idea [17:25] of how crippled communications are there with the outside world. And is this blackout, [17:32] and the censorship within the Iranian media space, defensible in your view? [17:38] So the manner in which the government closed the internet entirely on January 8th, [17:47] roughly till January 10, and then slowly, slowly they'd open it up, [17:51] is a degree of closure I don't think we have ever seen before. And it's during this short period as [17:57] well that a very large number of Iranian protesters and others were killed by the government, but also [18:03] by some elements amongst the protesters who used violence. That level of closure is not what you're [18:10] having right now. There's still a lot of limitations. It's still difficult to get [18:15] through to friends, et cetera. But if they use VPNs, et cetera, it is possible. Whereas during [18:21] those first couple of days in January, even with VPNs, even with Starlink, it was very difficult [18:27] to get in touch with people because the Iranian government was shutting everything down and [18:31] jamming Starlink as well. [18:33] What do you make of the Iranian [18:34] authorities' [18:34] and their argument that part of this is defensive, protecting Iranians and their [18:40] institutions by blocking off the outside world from penetrating via the internet? [18:45] Well, let's first remind ourselves that during these times of war, this is measures [18:53] not necessarily similar to this one, but others that are taken by almost everyone. [18:57] So in Israel right now, if you film Iranian missiles hitting Israel, [19:02] you can end up in jail. Same thing is happening in Dubai, in which everything [19:05] is being censored right now in order to make sure that this information does not come out. [19:10] Now, internal communication has not been blocked by those countries. It has been by the Iranian [19:16] government. Now, is there an element of truth in some of what they're saying? I think there is, [19:23] because you already have admissions from the former head of the CIA that Mossad and other [19:30] American agents were on the ground in Iran during those days of protests. You have [19:35] opposition figures who have more or less admitted that there were some of their [19:40] elements that also stood for some of the violence. But is that the only reason why [19:45] the government is shutting it down? No. I think this is both because of those first stated reasons, [19:51] but also because this is a way for them to show the populace that they are in control [19:55] and that they will tolerate absolutely no uprisings or protests, but also in order to [20:01] make sure that outside elements that are trying to penetrate Iran during these sensitive times [20:05] are blocked. [20:05] What do you make of the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' message [20:11] from just a few days back, that it would target all those U.S. tech companies, including Apple, [20:17] Google, Meta, Amazon, and Palantir? And what does that list of targets tell you [20:23] about Iran's larger strategy in this war? Well, the larger strategy is that they're [20:30] going after elements that exist within the GCC countries that are being used [20:37] directly or indirectly by the United States in order to conduct the offensive elements of this [20:42] war. Going after the tech companies would be an indication of them identifying that these [20:49] companies, particularly their AI elements, are being used extensively within this war [20:55] in a manner that has not been the case in previous war because, of course, a lot of these technologies [20:59] are entirely new. We saw the Israelis use AI extensively and using Palantir extensively in the [21:06] past. The Iranians have not done these attacks yet. It's not clear whether they cannot or whether [21:14] this is a warning because they want to prevent Trump from going forward with some of his [21:19] escalatory threats. But part of the reason why Trump hasn't gone forward with his escalatory [21:23] threats is precisely because of the knowledge that the Iranians can strike back very hard at the U.S. [21:29] itself, and that will only aggravate the situation rather than enable him to get out of this war. [21:35] Let's get to the label, [21:36] which was popularized under the late Ayatollah, who was assassinated in that Israeli attack. [21:43] It's now embedded throughout Iranian messaging. And it seems to resonate not just at home in Iran, [21:50] but also abroad. Why does that label stick? What do you think makes it so effective [21:56] as a narrative weapon? It is effective because his base were dead set against new wars. [22:04] They voted for Trump because he promised that he wouldn't [22:08] start any new wars. His conduct right now, not only with the new wars, the stronger alliance [22:14] with Israel, regime change efforts, are all completely contradictory to what he promised [22:22] his base that he would do. And in the absence of a better explanation, the Epstein factor has [22:29] emerged as a potential explanatory factor as to why Trump is doing things that is not in the [22:37] interest of the United States. [22:38] And that clearly he said that he would not do. And so the Epstein factor emerged on the U.S. side. [22:45] The Iranians are taking advantage of it rather than inventing it, because a lot of people, [22:50] particularly on the American right, being completely perplexed by Trump going in this [22:56] direction, drew the conclusion with or without evidence that this has something to do with [23:03] Epstein, that this has something to do with the Israelis using Epstein [23:09] and other things against Trump in order to force him in this direction. [23:13] I want to emphasize no evidence has been emerging to support these type of theories, [23:19] but precisely because there are no other strong theories that explains why, [23:23] in a rational sense, Trump would be doing any of this stuff. [23:27] Those type of conspiracy theories or theories about Epstein have actually become quite popular. [23:32] And it's not just in the U.S. or in Iran. We saw Canadian officials explicitly saying that no [23:39] American should be partaking or dying in this Epstein war. Instead, the Epstein war should be [23:46] fought by the Epstein class. [23:48] Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, [23:52] thank you for speaking with us here at The Listening Post today. [23:54] Thank you so much for having me. [23:57] And finally, a Pentagon policy restricting press access, [24:01] which ended up back in front of a judge this past week. It all started with changes that [24:05] came from Defense Secretary Pete Hexeth that put journalists at risk of losing their access [24:11] to the Pentagon if they pursued information the Defense Department had not approved of. [24:16] A federal judge then struck that measure down, declaring it unconstitutional. [24:21] A few days later, the Pentagon came back with a different set of restrictions, [24:25] limiting where reporters could go, requiring escorts inside the building, [24:30] and preserving the new rules that could deter anonymous sourcing. [24:34] So back to court it all went, where the same judge struggled to make sense of it, [24:38] describing parts of the policy as, quote, [24:41] even Kafkaesque, and questioning whether the Pentagon was simply working around [24:47] his initial ruling. And all of this is unfolding as the war in Iran plays out, [24:52] with Hexeth still harping at the press, accusing American journalists of distorting their coverage [24:58] and even suggesting what their headlines should look like. [25:01] The Pentagon is supposed to determine what happens on the battlefield. [25:05] Instead, it has become one over how American reporters should cover this war.