Iran latest: The Strait of Hormuz reopens - the state of confusion remains — The Listening Post

[0:00] The Strait of Hormuz is back open for business but what remains is the state of confusion. [0:05] We boil down the messaging on the Strait, the nuclear issue, Lebanon and which side is out front [0:12] in the battle for hearts and minds. Israel's relationship with its European allies is being [0:17] put to the test and we're seeing some monumental moments on the airwaves. Plus Iranian voices in [0:25] exile weaponized, the diaspora where it stands on the war and who the western media likes to hear from. [0:39] When journalists report on a ceasefire one of the adjectives they frequently use to describe it [0:45] is fragile. Things can change and quickly so with that in mind at the time of this recording there [0:51] is a new ceasefire in place a 10-day one between Israel and Lebanon. The other ceasefire between [0:57] Iran and its American and Israeli adversaries is still holding however fragile it may be. [1:05] A central issue in this conflict has been the Strait of Hormuz which the Iranians say is now [1:10] open again contingent on the ceasefire remaining in effect. That came after the U.S. had tried to [1:17] draw its NATO allies into policing the Strait, something that they wanted no part of. But it's [1:23] not just about the Strait it's also about Iran's nuclear program, the supposed context for this war. [1:29] Under any truce even when the bombs stop falling the information war goes on and this one has been [1:35] intensifying. It is a complex story and moments like this can test journalism because the job is to not [1:43] just report on the messaging coming from all sides but to decode it and if necessary debunk it. [1:50] The Strait of Hormuz has become more than a shipping lane. 50 days of a U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has [1:59] landed it at the heart of a propaganda war. When Iran first blockaded the Strait, choking off global [2:06] oil supplies, the Trump administration called that an act of extortion. Then the Americans announced [2:12] their own blockade and Donald Trump did not take it well when his NATO allies refused to take part. [2:19] So on Friday when the Iranians announced they would reopen the Strait for as long as the ceasefire [2:25] holds, Trump responded with a message of gratitude FOR TEHRAN in all caps. Which was the polar opposite of [2:33] the language he had been using all week aimed at the Iranians and his critics up to and including the [2:40] head of the Catholic Church. Trump is an erratic political animal and Iran's closure of the Strait has [2:49] driven into distraction. He's lashing out threatening to wipe away Iranian civilization and it's led him [2:54] to lash out against the Pope which has led to widespread condemnation. So he's feeling an unexpected [2:58] kind of impotence against Iran which he expected to be a target similar to Venezuela where he could [3:05] achieve his aims and declare victory and it hasn't quite turned out that way. What we're watching here with [3:10] President Trump and the Strait of purpose is a performance of power running headlong into material [3:18] reality and losing every single time. And for someone who sees himself as a winner like President Trump [3:26] that's a very rough ride. The man who's discovered he cannot bomb a waterway into submission. This is not a [3:36] foreign policy. This is improvisation theater with unclear stakes. This conflict has provided a lesson [3:46] in the art of asymmetrical warfare. How a superpower like the US and its allies in Israel despite the [3:53] clear advantage they have in weaponry can be countered by drones and missiles judiciously targeted. [4:00] The coinciding information war also has an asymmetry to it. As everyone expected we've been enormously [4:09] effective and successful in the strikes that have been conducted thus far in the conflict. [4:13] Conventional messaging tools like the news networks coming out of the US with their global reach can [4:20] and have been offset by Iranian operatives working online. Some of their material like the AI memes built [4:27] around lego figures has been purposefully childish and because of a variety of factors it has proven to [4:34] be highly effective. What I find striking how on point Iran's messaging has been about the gas crisis here [4:45] in the US hurting Americans even if some of the videos or messaging seems juvenile. For example social media [4:56] is a post that shows different cartoonish faces of Trump intended to show his erratic behavior and that [5:04] resonates not just with Americans but also people around the world showing how it is single-handedly [5:12] standing up to the United States which is acting like an international bully. If we think of this in [5:19] narrative terms there's this virtue to the Iranian narrative about the Strait of Hormuz that it actually [5:24] accords most with the facts right then you you see them capitalizing on this through both their [5:30] official channels and through memes. The fact that blockading the Strait is going to make things worse. [5:35] These are narratives by Iran but they're also true. It's not just the sophistication of the framing [5:41] from the Iranian side it's the juxtaposition with what is truly comical and irrational from the Americans. [5:46] The Israeli state is experienced at sabotaging ceasefires. On April 8th the day after the truce with Iran [5:54] was announced the Israelis violated it bombing more than 100 targets in Lebanon. The death toll according [6:01] to Lebanese officials more than 350 people. The new 10-day ceasefire announced this week between Israel [6:10] and Lebanon also has a fragility to it given that Israel says it will continue to occupy the southern [6:17] part of the country. There's also Prime Minister Netanyahu's stated plan to dismantle the axis of [6:23] resistance the one led by Iran that includes Hezbollah. The Israelis seem determined to take [6:30] Lebanon and its people back to a time they would rather forget. Effectively what Tel Aviv is thinking [6:37] of is a sustained protracted occupation of South Lebanon returning to the status quo between 1978 and 2000 [6:43] where Israel and its Lebanese proxies occupied large parts of South Lebanon and that was the situation [6:49] that led to the emergence of Hezbollah in the first place. But the objective here is to try to destroy [6:56] every element of the axis of resistance from Tehran to the Gaza Strip to Damascus to Beirut and South Lebanon. [7:03] When Donald Trump talks about the reason the US went to war with Iran over its nuclear program that gets [7:10] ample coverage but an insufficient amount of examination. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. [7:17] We agreed to a lot of things but they didn't agree to that. It's not unlike the Bush administration in 2003 [7:24] and the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction which proved to be non-existent. They cannot have a nuclear [7:30] weapon still going to take out the Middle East. Anyone with a basic understanding of Iran's nuclear program, [7:37] its history and the negotiations around it knows better. But the media space given to that context [7:44] has been sorely lacking. The mainstream media in the United States and Europe they typically act as [7:49] stenographers of empire. They just repeat what US officials say. If there was a true interrogation [7:55] they would highlight the fact that Iran and the Security Council they had a nuclear deal. It is a great [8:00] honor for us to announce that we have reached an agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue. That Iran [8:08] would curtail its nuclear enrichment in return for the lifting of sanctions which never really [8:13] completely happened and Trump decided to tear that up in 2017. The Trump administration came to the [8:19] talks unprepared. Iran brought teams who could discuss the future of Iran's nuclear plans and there was not a [8:27] single nuclear expert on Trump's team. Iran has the upper hand in the messaging. In any war however, moral [8:48] victories ring hollow. According to the numbers coming out of Tehran, more than 3,000 Iranians have been [8:55] killed. Tens of thousands wounded or injured. More than 3 million people displaced. The damage to Iran's [9:04] infrastructure and its military has been enormous and the economic cost according to various assessments [9:10] may eventually exceed one trillion dollars. But at least some of those things can be rebuilt. Compare that [9:19] to the reputational damage to the US and its empire. Its standing in the world as a rules-based [9:25] superpower. Given the role it has played in this war, the calamitous state of the Strait of Hormuz and [9:32] America's continued backing of the genocide Israel has inflicted on Gaza. Because people have seen that the [9:42] whole ideals of liberal democracies have failed miserably during the Gaza genocide. So it's not necessarily Iran's how smart they are. [9:53] It is also the foundational ethical collapse of the whole international world order that we have been [10:04] witnessing that makes them more prominent within the public opinion. And it's not only in the Arab region, [10:11] it's not only in the global south, it's around the world also. The war on Iran is a symptom of American imperial decline, [10:18] because the US empire relies on brute force to sustain its domination. And that's a symptom of [10:23] decline. And the effects of this war are going to be felt for a very long time. Because if Iran, [10:28] which has undergone sanctions for decades, you can withstand American and Israeli all-out war for this [10:35] long, then what does that suggest for other countries in resisting domination by the United States? This [10:42] will have the long-term effect of really damaging the American ability to protect its power globally. [10:51] Israelis are seeing a marked deterioration in the Zionist state's relationship with several [10:56] countries in Europe, including some of its closest allies. And the Netanyahu government's belligerent [11:02] response has been far from diplomatic. Minakshi Ravi is here with more. [11:07] You only had to listen to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech on Holocaust Remembrance Day [11:11] to get a sense of how deep the rupture has become between Israel and several European countries. [11:36] That framing of Israel as a civilization in a sea of barbarians has long been echoed uncritically by [11:42] European leaders. But in the past six weeks, Israel's largely unchecked military ventures [11:47] across the region have triggered real alarm. Some of the strongest criticism has come from [11:52] Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. [12:04] Netanyahu said Sánchez was waging a diplomatic war against Israel and removed Spain from an [12:09] international coordination center that is overseeing the so-called ceasefire in Gaza. [12:14] One response from Spanish media, a satirical show called El Intermedio, was this. [12:20] In Germany, where support for Israel is known as Staatsräson, a core pillar of national identity, [12:25] Chancellor Friedrich Merz offended Israelis when he warned that annexing parts of the West Bank would [12:30] be a big mistake. Netanyahu's far-right finance minister demanded an apology. [12:36] In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Maloney announced the suspension of a long-standing defense pact, [12:41] another sign of strain. Tensions have played out beyond official channels. Italian magazine L'Espresso [12:46] recently ran a cover image showing an Israeli man, a settler, menacing a Palestinian woman in the [12:52] West Bank. Israel's ambassador to Italy suggested the picture was manipulated. But other images and videos of the same [12:59] incident quickly surfaced, proving its veracity. A reflection of the way Israeli settlers and soldiers [13:04] in the West Bank torment Palestinians. With Israel sitting on a hair trigger, lashing out at any challenge [13:12] or critique, it was enough to spark the reaction that it did. Thanks, Meena. In making the case [13:18] for war with Iran, some of the loudest voices have come from the Iranian diaspora, based in the United [13:24] States and elsewhere in the West. That diaspora contains a wide range of views, often conflicting. [13:31] But judging by its representation in mainstream Western media, one might well assume that the dominant [13:37] position is support for the war that the diaspora is even open to the idea of the son of the former [13:42] Shah returning to Iran to take power. That is a misleading, simplistic picture. The majority of [13:48] Iranian Americans do not back this war. Yet those in the diaspora who do consistently get more visibility. [13:56] Narghez Bajogli, an academic and writer, is part of the Iranian diaspora. She has spent years studying the [14:03] weaponization of voices from her community for political ends. We spoke with her about whose [14:08] voices get heard, whose interests they serve, and how exile politics can be mobilized to get behind a war. [14:16] I'm Narghez Bajogli. I am an Iranian American, was born in Iran and moved to the United States when I was [14:23] four. I'm an anthropologist and I focus a lot on media production. This threat of terrorism was [14:30] birthed out of the coverage of what was happening in Iran from 1979 onwards. The best way to describe [14:37] Iran International is kind of like Fox News in the United States. I have been paying very close [14:42] attention to the ways in which for many years now the Middle East has been framed in a particular way [14:47] to allow for and justify forever wars. I think the fight for the future of Western civilization is [14:54] happening right here and I think Israel is leading that fight. What are you doing about it to help the [14:59] Americans, to help the civilized world defeat this brutal sort of neo-Nazi regime? What has been so [15:06] striking for me is the way in which I've been watching the Iranian diaspora being utilized for [15:12] a justification for this war that is currently taking place in Iran. The United States has pulled [15:18] the most successful military operation in history of mankind. The whole top echelon of the Islamic Republic [15:26] has been dismantled in a few hours. In Iran you have a population of over 90 million. We don't [15:32] have exact numbers on the diaspora, but it's also multiple millions throughout the world. The Iranian [15:37] diaspora has had different ideas about what kind of political future should exist in Iran. We had people [15:45] who supported a secular republic as the future of Iran, those who were more from the leftist end of the spectrum, [15:52] those who wanted the monarchy back, those who believed in reform in the country. And these [15:57] different elements all really disagreed with one another, had debates with one another, and there [16:03] was a very real diversity. The Iranian people have been living under not just pressure from the above, [16:09] from their own regime, but also pressure from the outside, from the United States. There are specific [16:14] steps that the US administration can take to really address the root cause, as I said, in dealing with the [16:21] head of the snake in Iran. In the past couple of months that conversation has become really heated, [16:27] and the people that are being platformed in mainstream spaces in the United States, mainstream media [16:33] spaces, have often been folks from the Iranian diaspora who in one way or another talk about the [16:39] desire for Iranians for liberation and freedom. Iranians understand and know that President Trump and [16:46] and his administration are fighting to liberate the Iranian people. We always saw this less of a war, [16:52] more of a rescue mission to, I suppose, take out the machinery of repression. I see many of these [16:59] folks as really being desperate for change in Iran, which I can understand. But what strikes me is that [17:06] they have either been asleep or are not paying attention to these various regime change wars in [17:12] the Middle East that the United States has now waged for over 25 years. They are still calling for [17:19] change from the exact powers that have destroyed these societies. This is the message that Iranians want [17:26] me to send to President Trump. Do not leave us alone with this wounded, murderous regime. Finish the job. [17:35] When I look at clips like this, the issue with this kind of framing is that what is being sold to [17:41] the public is very similar to what apparently President Trump got in his briefings right before [17:48] he launched this war, which is that all the Iranian regime needs is another push and then it will collapse, [17:54] or all the Revolutionary Guard needs in order to defect is to see that the United States or Europe really mean [18:00] business and then they will defect and the regime will collapse. The reality is, is that as we've seen [18:06] through 40 days of war thus far, the Islamic Republic is an extremely resilient political establishment. [18:13] This war could last another three and a half weeks or so. Has Iran asked for a ceasefire? [18:20] No, we never asked for a ceasefire. And we have never asked even for negotiation. We are ready to defend [18:29] ourselves as long as it takes. Get rid of the Supreme Leader. I'm totally fine for him to blow [18:41] him into wherever he wants to go. He does not deserve to be on this earth any longer. When I hear [18:47] Iranians and diaspora say these kinds of things on mainstream media, what I hear is more a desire and [18:54] illusion of what they want rather than an analysis that is based in reality. A lot of Iranians want a [18:59] very different system. But they also understand that, first of all, war really represses the internal [19:07] environment. Dissent is stamped out just like in any country that is under war. And that secondly, [19:13] it actually entrenches the Islamic Republic. The version of the Islamic Republic that will come out of [19:19] this is likely going to be more hawkish, more radical, more repressive. This is the moment that Iranian [19:26] people have been waiting for 47 years. The Islamic Republic understand only language of force. [19:32] Masya Ali Najad gets a lot of airtime because she says what a lot of mainstream media right now desires, [19:39] which is a framing of this as a war of liberation. Masya Ali Najad has been supported by the United [19:46] States government, by different elements within the pro-Israel world, because she is willing and able [19:52] to sort of put this framing consistently out there. And she has been doing so for years now. [19:58] If the Western countries and democratic countries do not get united to end Islamic terror, [20:04] believe me, they will get united to end democracy and to end every single of us. [20:10] So she does not represent anyone beyond herself. And she has to, in many ways, say these kinds of [20:17] things in media in order to continue to be called upon. And this is a huge business in an industry. [20:24] With me now is Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran. Good to be with you, [20:29] Mr. Pahlavi. Thank you so much for taking the time. [20:31] So Reza Pahlavi is the son of the former Shah of Iran. He was a teenager when the revolution happened [20:37] and they had to leave the country. [20:39] I think the president was absolutely correct when he says there has to be a change of direction. And that's [20:46] exactly what the Iranian people are asking. [20:47] But if the Iranian people now had the support of the president, will that encourage them to take [20:51] to the streets in even greater numbers and put more pressure on the regime from within? [20:55] Yes. And I think that Reza Pahlavi in and of himself is not a charismatic leader. He was never [21:00] able to have a huge following behind him in all of these years up until fairly recently. [21:06] One of the reasons that he's been pushed to the forefront again is that he seems to be the favored [21:10] person from the Israeli end. Your leadership is a leadership of peace and tolerance unlike the [21:18] extremists who rule Iran today. They have been really supportive of him in the political realm [21:24] and in the diaspora. There's also a number of Iranian diaspora satellite television stations that [21:29] are broadcast in Persian into Iran that have been pushing Reza Pahlavi in the pre-revolutionary time [21:35] as this nostalgic, ideal time that Iran must return to. [21:39] I began to see a big shift in the diaspora and those who supported the war once the United States and [21:59] Israel started to attack civilian infrastructure in Iran, especially all of the infrastructure [22:05] that the country would need to rebuild from factories to bridges to oil depots. And once Trump started [22:12] to tweet about destroying a whole civilization, then Iranians and Diaspora began to see this not as a [22:18] war against the Islamic Republic, but as a war against the Iranian nation as a whole. And I think a lot [22:23] of people are beginning to have buyer's remorse. [22:25] No, d'abord, je dirais que nous avons jamais cherché des interventions militaires dans notre pays. [22:30] Reza Pahlavi now says that he didn't call for any kind of military intervention [22:35] in Iran, even though he very forcefully did. [22:38] Only a military intervention at this point could level the playing field. [22:42] Well, it could be an American strike, it could be an Israeli strike, it could be whatever. [22:46] One of the reasons for this change is that he is receiving a lot of blowback within the [22:51] Iranian diaspora and from within Iran itself. That, first of all, he's one of the only political [22:57] leaders who has called for military intervention into his country in Iran's history. And so they're [23:03] seeing him as a traitor for this. And the second is that he actually was not able to deliver. He [23:08] said that if there is a military intervention, Iranians in Iran would come out, folks within [23:12] the Revolutionary Guard would defect, and this would be a very quick war and that he could then [23:16] help run the country. That has obviously not turned out to be the case. Wars do not bring liberation. [23:23] What wars do is they create broken societies and enraged populations. And that is something that [23:30] is disheartening for me to watch when I see the Iranian diaspora calling for these kinds of strikes [23:35] and wars on Iran. And finally, during his recent election campaign, Hungary's new Prime Minister [23:45] Peter Magyar did not do a single interview with a state broadcaster. He says he was never invited. [23:51] Following his landslide victory over the former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán this past week, Magyar went [23:57] straight to some of those news studios, not to make nice, but to call them out. [24:12] In appearances on state television and radio, Magyar denounced what he called [24:17] their factory of lies. He vowed to suspend news broadcasts until impartial objective journalism is [24:24] restored. Peter Magyar is placing the country's media on notice, promising to fix what went so [24:31] wrong for so long under Viktor Orbán. Hungarians will be tuning into those channels, watching closely [24:38] to see if he delivers.