Iran halts Hormuz traffic after Israel attacks Lebanon

[0:00] It's been just hours since President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, [0:04] but this morning that temporary truce is looking fragile at best. Moments ago, [0:10] an Iranian news agency reported Tehran halted oil tankers' traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. [0:16] Reopening the Strait to Commerce, of course, was a key part of the deal, the president [0:22] and his administration says Iran signed on to. Listen to Secretary Hegseth this morning. [0:28] What has been agreed to, what's been stated, is the Strait is open. [0:33] Our military is watching. I'm sure their military is watching, but commerce will flow. [0:38] One of Iran's demands in exchange was that Israel end its bombardment of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. [0:45] The Israelis say they never agreed to that, and the strikes continue today, as you can see here in Beirut. [0:52] In terms of this latest news, I mean, obviously, the ceasefire has only been live for less than 24 hours, [0:58] and the fact that Iran can still close the Strait overall moves in just a whim is going to strengthen the U.S.'s resolve [1:05] to ensure that it does not control or remain, retain sort of sole control of the Strait going forward. [1:12] And obviously, when it comes to, if the ceasefire is still ongoing, when it comes to ensuring a permanent deal, [1:18] both sides are going to be very far apart on that particular issue, Stephen. [1:22] Yeah, that's exactly right. The White House spent last night and this morning on a victory lap, [1:29] declaring that President Donald Trump had pulled off a masterstroke by reopening the Strait of Hormuz. [1:36] That was somewhat of an absurd claim because the Strait of Hormuz, of course, was open before he launched this war that was opposed by much of the world. [1:46] But this new apparent closure will undercut the not only the White House claim that Trump has pulled off a massive victory here [1:56] and that the Strait of Hormuz issue is not even going to be something that's going to be contentious going forward. [2:04] I think it shows why a lot of people are arguing that despite all the propaganda coming out of Washington, [2:10] the United States has absorbed a strategic defeat here because it shows that going forward at any moment, [2:17] even a few hours into a ceasefire, Iran has the capacity to close that strait and create again that chokehold on the global economy. [2:26] So I think it's going to be very irksome to the White House. [2:30] The question is, how will they respond? Will they try to pretend this isn't happening, that it's just a teething problem? [2:36] Or at some point, will President Trump's credibility and prestige and red lines again come into play [2:44] in such a way as he has to take some military action? And then we're back where we were before. [2:50] Now we're seeing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. [2:53] Just talk about how the escalation after the ceasefire last night has only increased. [2:59] Yeah, there are multiple sensitivities here. There are multiple narratives, not least what we've heard [3:10] from from Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, not least what we've heard from a whole variety of [3:16] Iranian officials who are both sides claiming victory. So you have that. And it's not clear what [3:25] precisely has been agreed. The Pakistan's ambassador to the U.N. said that Pakistan's prime minister had sent [3:33] a he didn't describe it as a text on agreement, but an understanding to both the U.S. and Iran [3:43] who had agreed to it. He didn't say precisely what was in it. He said that was bounded by secrecy to let [3:49] the sides work out what are clearly very big differences at the moment. And he spoke about [3:54] the Pakistan's prime minister in his statement, having primacy in this situation because it had [4:00] been accepted by both Iran and the United States. And as you say, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, [4:06] very clear that he doesn't see Lebanon as part of that ceasefire agreement, which is a difference [4:12] with the Pakistani prime minister. Indeed, Israel launching its heaviest by its own statement a few [4:18] hours ago, its heaviest strike on Hezbollah targets inside of Lebanon, some of them deep inside [4:24] of Beirut coordinated against a hundred targets. So has that led to the closure of the Strait of [4:32] Hormuz? It's very hard to say, but it is certainly one of the many threads and strands of the lack of [4:41] clarity, of the lack of certainty where everyone stands, of the multi-sided nature of what's been [4:49] happening. Iran has, it appears, sent missiles and drones against a variety of targets in the Gulf [4:57] today, long after the ceasefire. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said it would take some time, [5:02] as he said, for the carrier pigeon to get out to some of the remoter Iranian military units, who he says [5:10] have been cut off from communications. But I think when we look at the state of play on Iranian state media, [5:16] the declarations of victory, the popular support coming out in the street for the regime in Iran, [5:23] it's hard to imagine that even in the farthest-flung corners of Iran, military commanders haven't got the [5:28] instruction yet to cease and desist. All of this is going to feed into that sort of uncertainty that can [5:36] unravel what J.D. Vance called a, his precise words were sort of an unstable ceasefire. A fragile was his [5:50] precise word ceasefire. I think all of that plays into it. And I'm trying to get at which strand [5:56] specifically is pulled that unravels the next one. Very hard to say. [6:01] With me now is retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges. He's the former commander of U.S. Army [6:06] forces in Europe. So reopening the Strait of Hormuz was part of this deal. Is this ceasefire already [6:12] broken in your view? I think what Brett said earlier is correct. There is not really a ceasefire. [6:20] These are not a couple of angry sergeants out there launching missiles. And I think we're going to have [6:27] to listen to what the insurance companies say. If they are not willing to insure vessels moving [6:32] through the Strait of Hormuz, then the Strait is in effect still closed. And I think this is why it's [6:39] also important that the president and others not speak too quickly about things that are so tenuous [6:46] because it ends up damaging their credibility. [6:50] And the president, as you know, has claimed victory here. At the same time, you have these attacks [6:56] in the region. You have the state of Hormuz closed now by the Iranians based on our latest reporting. [7:02] And things are very active and moving by the minute. That's where things stand right now. [7:08] There seems to also be confusion between the U.S., Israeli, and Pakistani positions over whether [7:13] Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement. How concerning is that? [7:17] Well, very concerning. And this is part of the problem when you don't have world-class professional [7:24] diplomats handling these kinds of negotiations. I was skeptical when I first saw that there was going [7:32] to be a restriction on any operations in Lebanon or against Iranian proxies. I was pretty sure there [7:38] was no way that Israel could agree to that. And so, again, it's a mistake to claim a victory on something [7:47] before you can be really sure that it's going to be done. And unfortunately, this is a consistent [7:56] problem with the administration of making claims about things that are just not the case. And that [8:02] only damages us in the long run. CNN's Anna Kuba joins us live now from London. So, Anna, [8:07] listen, just in terms of where oil prices have gone, I mean, obviously, after that ceasefire deal was [8:11] announced just yesterday, we saw Brent crude, that we have it on the screen, and WTI all trading lower. [8:18] They're roughly around $95 a barrel. Obviously, it's going to take some time. Despite technically [8:23] the fact that even yesterday the Strait of Hormuz was open, we all knew that it would take some time [8:28] to sort of recoup the 20 percent of global oil that was lost during the war. Now that there is this [8:35] fragile ceasefire and things do appear to be volatile and the strait is closed technically at this point [8:42] onwards. Just walk us through what that means for oil prices going forward, Anna. Well, you're right. [8:47] There was enormous amount of optimism in markets plunging oil prices, but we're still high. You know, [8:52] the prices are still high. They're still not what they were before the war. Brent, the global benchmark, [8:56] was around $73. Now we can see there it's around $94. So there's still a way to go. And the terms of [9:03] this ceasefire or the way it's playing out currently, as you've said, are incredibly volatile. We're seeing [9:07] that because of these strikes in Beirut, Iran is now saying that oil tankers can't get through the [9:12] strait. And already the terms of the strait reopening as a result of this ceasefire were, [9:18] you know, causing some really big questions for oil traders and for buyers. And that's because [9:23] Iran was saying that it was still going to make sure that oil tankers were passing the strait in [9:28] coordination with its military. And that raises questions as to whether we're going to see a [9:33] similar dynamic play out as, you know, Iran not allowing ships that have any sort of link to the [9:39] US or Israel, whether they be insured or owned or crewed by countries that are aligned with Israel [9:45] or the US. Is that still going to be the situation? And the big question mark about tolls. There were [9:50] lots of reports around certain ships paying up to $2 million. That was a figure that was being [9:56] bandied about to pass the strait. And now we've got reporting that says that Iran and Oman are [10:02] thinking about allowing ships to pass through if they pay a transit fee. So I think that probably [10:07] explains why we've seen these enormous falls because of the ceasefire itself, but not really [10:11] back to where they need to be, which is where they were before the war.