Iran attempts to ‘decouple’ Strait of Hormuz from nuclear negotiations, analyst says

[0:00] U.S. media outlet Axios is reporting that Iran has put forward a new proposal to the United States. [0:06] It's been communicated to Washington via Pakistani mediators. [0:10] Tehran has proposed that a ceasefire between the U.S. and Israel, the U.S., Israel and Iran, [0:15] be extended indefinitely or that hostilities be ended permanently. [0:20] Future talks on Iran's nuclear program are conditional and will only be held at a later stage. [0:26] Tehran wants the American naval blockade of Iran lifted. [0:30] Washington has reportedly received the Iranian proposal, but it's unclear whether it's being considered by negotiators. [0:39] Talia Thaffer is the executive director of the Gulf International Forum, a think tank that's based in Washington, D.C. [0:45] She's here in the studio with us now in Doha. Good to see you again. [0:50] Is there any basis in what we just heard there for a negotiating path? [0:54] If, as President Trump says, the U.S. holds all the cards. [0:59] I mean, from a Gulf perspective, does Washington have the leverage here? [1:03] Or is Tehran's position perhaps much stronger than President Trump would like to admit? [1:10] Well, I think when the U.S. blocked Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, it did increase U.S. leverage. [1:17] But if you hear what the Iranians are proposing, they're trying to separate or decouple, if you will, the nuclear issue from the Strait of Hormuz issue [1:32] and use the Strait of Hormuz to stop the U.S. blockade and end the war, ideally from their perspective. [1:41] So it seems like they're not even going to the negotiation about the core issues and the reasons this war from the U.S. perspective was started. [1:52] It seems like the Strait of Hormuz set back the negotiations from being focused on the nuclear issue to being focused on the Strait of Hormuz. [2:03] The nuclear issue is Washington's red line, though, isn't it? [2:05] Yes, the nuclear issue is Washington's red line. [2:09] And it seems before this, when the Iranians and the Americans have been negotiating, the nuclear issue was much more of an issue at the table. [2:17] But right now, it seems like with Iran's new proposal, it's changed that scenario. [2:23] And I don't think the U.S. will likely agree to that. [2:27] As we've been reporting, Abbas Arachi was in St. Petersburg in Russia today. [2:31] Iran obviously now engaging Oman, Pakistan, Russia. [2:36] It's been consulting with Qatar, with Turkey, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia. [2:40] Does Iran's broader diplomatic engagement now help or hinder negotiations by fragmenting the process? [2:50] You've got too many cooks almost spoiling the recipe here. [2:56] Well, I think this is more about Iran trying to ramp up diplomatic clout and appear that it's not as isolated as it may be. [3:08] And obviously, Russia is aligned with Iran to a certain degree. [3:14] It's not willing to sacrifice anything tangible for Iran, but it is an ally of Iran. [3:21] And, you know, within the region, certainly they were, especially from the perspective of the Gulf states, [3:29] the Iranians were able to visit the Omanis, who have a historic, long-standing, positive relationship with Iran for many different reasons. [3:36] And, of course, they both share territory in the international waterways of the Strait of Hormuz. [3:45] And also, Oman has been the most tepid one in terms of responding to Iranian aggression. [3:54] And it is also the one that was least attacked by Iran. [3:57] But it is telling that the other Gulf states did not meet them in person. [4:03] So they are keeping diplomatic channels open, but they're keeping Iran at arm's length, [4:10] trying to send a message that, you know, they still haven't went back to normal relations or will do so anytime soon. [4:17] All right. As far as Russia's involvement is concerned, though, what role could it realistically play in any of this? [4:24] Facilitator? Supporter? Be it economical or political support? [4:30] Or is it a complicating factor, given relations between Russia and the United States? [4:37] In terms of the nuclear deal? [4:40] Yeah. Well, in terms of if Russia gets involved in trying to help to negotiate an end to the conflict? [4:46] Well, I think that Russia, in order to be a mediator, a negotiator in a conflict of two to three parties in this case, [4:56] you would have to have good relations with all parties to have that credibility and trust. [5:01] And I think Russia just doesn't simply have that trust. [5:05] Maybe you can argue that Trump, from all the previous U.S. presidents, [5:09] has probably the most positive relations with Russia. [5:13] But by no means does Russia have the credibility to be a mediator. [5:19] And this is why Pakistan is the main interlocutor. [5:23] And if Washington dismisses this reported latest Iranian proposal, [5:29] what's going to realistically break the stalemate? [5:33] How does this move forward? [5:34] Well, that is the concern, because you can also see that Washington has postured troops and military equipment [5:45] double than of that it had before here in the region. [5:49] So one wonders if there's going to be an escalation or is this just both parties are playing hardball for negotiation tactics. [5:59] But it's unfortunate that they haven't even reached, they're just negotiating terms to get at the negotiating table. [6:06] They haven't even gotten to that yet at this point. [6:10] Really good to talk to you again, Dania. [6:12] Many thanks indeed. [6:13] Dania Thaffer.