IMF LIVE — World Economic Outlook 2026 — Global Growth, Inflation and Financial Risks

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: on the long-term bond yields, another on oil prices if they continue, and fiscal policy for G7. [00:00:08] Speaker 2: Okay, so on the first question on increasing in interest rates, I think it's important to think about the drivers behind that increase in interest rate because that helps us understand the effects as well. So there are essentially three main drivers. One is growth itself, the investment boom driven by AI has been a big driver of demand, and that pushed up on interest rates. Moreover, within the demand forces, we have seen higher government spending since the pandemic, which has also added to demand and hence interest rates. This is in a way a reversal of what we had before the pandemic when we were talking about the secular stagnation, weak demand, low interest rates, but now that demand is stronger and we have higher equilibrium rates coming from that stronger demand. The second element that has been very important is energy prices and also other commodity prices, part of this negative supply shock that we're talking about, which constrains capacity globally and pushes up inflation and calls for also for a response of central banks. So that's the second force behind. And the third component is the premium component. This interaction between high debt and high interest rates, I mean that investors are calling for a premium on bonds. Okay, so that's the extra. And then another component of that premium is that in a setting with supply shocks, bonds are not very good hedges against the cycle. And hence again, there's a compensation for that that investors are asking for. So you have those three elements, three main elements. One is growth itself. So when we think about, okay, will borrowing cause hamper growth? Well, it's offsetting part of the growth, but you know, it's the result of that growth. Whereas obviously the part that comes from energy prices is a purely supply side. So how should monetary policy react? Again, to the, you know, first part on raising demand factors, that's a classical demand shock and monetary policy kind of set by being more restrictive. The energy shock is, is a supply shock and inflation is driven by the supply side. So if they are monetary policy has to be a little bit more cautious and manage that demand side in order to make sure that inflation returns back to target, there are no second round effects and no the anchoring of expectations. But obviously the, you achieve that by restricting demand and hence exacerbating the fall in activity that, that the shock itself is causing. And so, and so yeah, going back to your question, how should monetary policy react, you know, in principle, it should be more restrictive in order to make sure that inflation returns to targets. As we said before, we expect inflation to pick up this year and also next year. And so it's important that central banks following their mandate keep a sufficiently restrictive stance. There was a question. [00:03:57] Speaker 1: Commodities, what will happen if the oil prices are still high? [00:04:01] Speaker 2: Yes. So that's exactly that question is, um, we will try to address with the scenario in chapter one, uh, of the WIO report. So you, you can see it, um, in, uh, box, uh, uh, box 1.2 table 1 to 1.21. So we look at the scenario in which, uh, commodity prices are, remain high for an extra roughly six months. So, so we, uh, and actually they are higher by 17 and 40% in each of the two years, 2026 and 2027. And you can see in the table, the impact on advanced economies and emerging markets. Um, so, so we have, uh, downgrades on, on the, um, or that will lead to a downgrade to growth and an increase in, in inflation in both, uh, groups of countries. We add to that, that scenario, another layer in which on top, on top of the commodity price increase, we also see an increase in the term premium and inflation expectations. And that leads to the higher numbers that you can see at the end of the table. Um, but I invite you to look at, uh, the report and, um, and we have a bigger discussion of the assumptions that go into the exercise. [00:05:21] Speaker 1: And then G7 recommendations, fiscal recommendations. [00:05:25] Speaker 2: So the overall message is that countries, uh, you know, should, that with high debts and high revenues, the risks associated to those states, uh, should start a fiscal consolidation, uh, to make sure that, uh, deficits and ultimately debt are in, in a downward trajectory. As you pointed out, uh, we have a table on fiscal policy in, in the report, uh, table 1.8. In that second panel, you can see the UK, um, it has the deficit, um, the debt, um, stabilizing primary surplus just as, at our prediction for this year. So it's, um, as you know, the UK has already started the consol, consolidation, um, um, process and, uh, and it's, uh, it's the country that, um, basically stands out in that table, along with India, uh, as well. Um. Okay. [00:06:23] Speaker 1: So we have 20 minutes and we have to go through all the regions in the world. So we're going to do this relatively quick. Uh, we're going to start with Asia Pacific. We are here in Thailand. So if you have questions about the region or a specific countries in Asia Pacific, please raise your hand. I see the men. Yeah. Go stand up. So it's easy to identify you. And then we will go here on the front. [00:06:49] Speaker 3: Hi, I'm from the standard Thailand. Uh, my question is about, uh, is about the report that you call for rebuilding buffer before the next shock. How much room do countries like Thailand can absorb next shock? And what should we review first? Thank you. Perfect. [00:07:11] Speaker 1: So now we're going to go here on the front row. I'm going to take the lady in red jacket. [00:07:18] Speaker ?: Okay. [00:07:19] Speaker 4: Thank you. On, on China. Um, so could you walk us through the latest, uh, gross projection on China 4.5% for this year? And specifically, how are the major forces, um, highlighted in the, uh, in your report? Uh, the geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation and AI, a technology cycle playing a role shaping this outlook. Thank you. [00:07:42] Speaker 1: And then we, we have received also a question through the press center from John Hub news agency about the outlook for South Korea. So we have Thailand and rebuilding buffers, China and South Korea. [00:07:55] Speaker ?: Thank you. [00:07:56] Speaker 2: So, so let me start with an overlook of, um, of the risk of the region, uh, given that, yeah, we have, uh, a few countries in the questions. Um, overall the, this, this, this is the region that has grown the most, um, uh, the, um, uh, uh, we have a, uh, upward revisions for many countries in the region. And, uh, there are the same stories, uh, in here, except that the AI component is very, very strong in Asia. Um, so, so this region has been incredibly resilient, even though they are net importers of energy and other commodities, the AI boom has more than offset the weaknesses coming from, uh, or the headwinds from, from, um, the commodity markets. Um, so we have China and India, uh, they're the big engines of growth, uh, here growth has been revised up sizeably for China. Um, and sorry, for India, um, we're expecting, uh, India to grow by 7% this year and next year. China, uh, China's growth for this year is projected to be 4.5% and next year 4%. And then we have the, a set of countries that have a really, very well integrated in the AI supply chain. And those have seen significant, uh, upward revisions, uh, notably here, Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, and to some extent also Thailand. Um, so, so these countries, uh, you know, AI has, has been a big driver of, of, uh, this strong performance and big drivers of the forecast revisions, uh, upward revisions. Uh, let me say a couple of words on, on Thailand. So Thailand last year had a deflation. This year we are expecting it to come out of that deflationary state. Growth is projected to be 2.1% this year and 2.1% next year. Coincidentally, inflation is also 2.1, so 2.1 everywhere this year. Uh, next year we expect inflation to go down to 1.7%. It's, it has coped, uh, well again, with, despite being a net importer of, uh, um, of energy. And it has been helped by this AI boom that, um, is, is really strong in, in this part of Asia. Uh, other countries have, within Asia have not, um, been as, uh, successful as being part of this. But, uh, um, but, uh, certainly there is a, a, a big, um, a big mass they are benefiting from the AI boom. [00:10:50] Speaker 1: Okay, uh, so, because we're running out of time, I'm gonna combine two regions. I'm gonna go to Europe and the Middle East. So if you have questions on Europe and the Middle East, raise your hand. I see my UK reporters, they're ready. So let's get some questions on the UK. And then I think that we have a question on the Middle East on the front row. Let's do this because we have 15 minutes and 39 seconds. [00:11:21] Speaker 5: Thank you. Hi. Uh, Ed Conway from Sky News just on the UK. So, um, you said given that there are rising debt levels and bond yields, uh, arising that decisive action is necessary. Can you just be clear? We have the, the new chancellor, John Healy, who's giving his first budget. Is decisive action necessary for the UK specifically? [00:11:41] Speaker 1: Okay. And we're gonna go here on the front row. Do you have, I can get another question on the UK, but, um, we are, we are on a very strict time here. And you will have the European department press briefing later this week. Please go ahead. [00:11:57] Speaker 6: Uh, this is Nora Amashif from Asharki Bloomberg from the Middle East. Uh, so the regional outlook was prepared before the latest escalation around Bab al-Mandeb. And the renewed Houthis attack. Does that mean that the funds outlook for the region may now be somewhat optimistic? Particularly when it comes to the non, non oil activity in the GCC and Saudi Arabia. Given the exposure to regional trade and logistics and looking across the region, which economies have the strongest fiscal buffers to absorb a prolonged disruption? And thinking here particularly of Egypt, because if tensions were to persist and shipping through the Red Sea were further disrupted, how concerned would the fund be about the impact of the Suez Canal revenues and the Egyptian economy? Okay. [00:12:43] Speaker 1: So we have two questions, UK and then we can go to the Middle East outlook. Okay. [00:12:48] Speaker 2: So, uh, on the UK, I mean, as we said before, the UK has already started a consolidation, uh, path, uh, fiscal consolidation. It is on that trajectory. And the message for the UK is just simply stay the course and, uh, continue on, on that trajectory. Uh, I will pass a question on the Middle East to my colleagues. Okay. Thank you. [00:13:12] Speaker 7: Thank you. Thank you, Sylvan. [00:13:14] Speaker 1: Uh, Petya, get the, get closer to the mic so we can. Okay. Perfect. [00:13:19] Speaker 7: Yes. [00:13:20] Speaker 1: You can hear me now? I think so. [00:13:22] Speaker 7: Okay. So, um, the, uh, the impact in the, in the Middle East is, I would say, quite heterogeneous. Uh, and there's a significant difference between the outlook for oil exporters and oil importers. Just to be clear, we actually revised in the last minute, almost, our forecast to incorporate the higher oil prices. So that being said, of course, there are, the risks in that area are still on the downside. And that's why we also developed some of the scenarios that Sylvana spoke about earlier that tried to quantify what the impact would be if oil prices were even higher. So, so when it, when it comes to, uh, again, the, um, uh, the oil exporters, especially in the Gulf region, we have a sharp contraction, um, in the forecast for their production activity, for their, um, uh, exports, which is followed by, again, a strong rebound in 2027 subject, again, to the assumptions that, that we have made. Um, we are seeing some slowdown in some countries, also in the non-oil sectors for those, uh, oil importers. Um, but again, um, risks there are also, um, on the downside. Now, for oil importers is a slightly different story. We actually have a small, uh, upgrade, uh, there, um, in many of these economies, there's still a robust, uh, domestic, uh, demand and, uh, remittances and tourism also holding up. Now, um, there was also a specific, uh, question on, on Egypt, uh, and there we have an upgrade of the forecast, both for this year and for next, and this is, uh, driven by the rebound in the activity in the, uh, Suez, uh, Suez Canal and also petroleum related, uh, activity. Uh, but growth is expected to, to moderate due to the lagged impact of the conflict and, again, uh, risks, uh, very much on the downside as in the rest of the region. Thanks. [00:15:24] Speaker 1: Okay. We continue our traveling around the world and now we're going to combine two regions, Africa and Western hemisphere. So I'm going to go to the lady here and then the lady on the front row. And actually, if you want, if I call on you, stand up so it's easier to see you in the room. [00:15:44] Speaker 8: Um, thank you and good morning. Um, my name is Duduzila Ramela from MoneyWeb. Uh, what should the monetary policy response be for, uh, oil importing economies more so than are outside of the technology value chain. Okay. [00:15:58] Speaker 1: And we're going to go to the lady. [00:16:02] Speaker ?: Thank you. Thank you very much. [00:16:04] Speaker 9: I'm Nancy from Nigeria. Earlier on when you were talking, you said that fiscal policy is already restrained. So my question concerning Africa is, um, how can African governments pursue fiscal consolidation and put public debt on a sustainable downward trajectory? Of course, given that there's still poverty and imposing more hardship on vulnerable populations, even like Nigeria. And how can fiscal and monetary policy be better positioned to ensure the burden of stabilization does not fall as so much on ordinary citizens like we even see in Nigeria while preserving price, stability and investors confidence. Thank you. [00:16:45] Speaker 1: Okay. So we're going to answer these questions in Africa. Then we will move to the Western Hemisphere. Okay. [00:16:50] Speaker 2: So on the first question on monetary policy, how it, how it should respond to an oil price shock when there is no demand impulse. Um, I think, I mean, that, that's a situation, the classical situation of trade off from the perspective of monetary policy. Inflation is high, but activity is being constrained or, or reduced by the shock. And this is where the central bank needs to manage the trade off, make sure that inflation returns to target within, uh, the policy horizon. We typically think about two, uh, two years, two to three years. Um, and so, um, clearly it's a different situation than economies that are, uh, experiencing a demand boom. And, and so in there, we're talking about, uh, central banks, again, focus on, uh, on price stability and make sure that you keep a, a stance that is sufficiently restrictive to, for inflation to return to target. But obviously you're not, um, you know, going fully as you would go if this was a demand, a, a pure demand shock. Um, so, so that's, um, there's a lot of discussion of these heterogeneity in the response of monetary policy, depending on different circumstances. And of course, uh, other guideposts, both will be, okay, how tight is the labor market? What are the levels, uh, of inflation to start with? And again, exposure to, um, AI or, or other commodities. Uh, so, so yeah, I invite you to, uh, take a look at the. Yeah. [00:18:28] Speaker 1: And I think that maybe for Nigeria, we should pass the floor to Denise. [00:18:34] Speaker 10: Sure. Uh, so let me, the question was about fiscal policy in particular in Africa, right? And, uh, so the things to emphasize here is that, uh, what we are advocating for is for, uh, policymakers to balance the near-term needs of the population. And that involves food security, uh, that involves energy security, given that, uh, the prices of food and energy is, is increasing disproportionately. And, uh, while also keeping in mind the medium-term stability. And how to do that is, of course, uh, a great question. And, uh, we do actually also, in one of our analytical chapters, our chapter two, is looking particularly into fiscal pulse responses that's most effective when dealing with what we're calling cost of living crisis, where the, the price of essentials are increasing faster than the rest of the consumption basket. Uh, what that means in, in practice, uh, maybe Nigeria is a good example, uh, right? While the growth held up in, in Nigeria, given, uh, uh, energy exporter, uh, powered rates are still very high. And, uh, we are very mindful that the population is suffering, uh, when it comes, especially food security. We'd also risk from El Nino. So in that environment, what we're advocating for is, uh, cash transfers and income support targeted temporary income support for the most vulnerable, uh, households in Nigeria. That can be done by the cash transfers that alleviate high poverty and ensure food security. Uh, and, uh, that needs to be coupled with, um, you know, aligned with a medium-term fiscal framework. And there, what that involves is improving expenditure quality and improving, uh, revenue collection. Let me stop there. Okay. [00:20:25] Speaker 1: We have six minutes, 25 seconds, and we're going to the Western Hemisphere. Here we include Latin America, U.S., so if you have questions, raise your hand, and I'm going to go through a quick round. Please, the lady here in the front, and then I will go to the lady back there. [00:20:43] Speaker 11: Thank you. Karen Vanessa Quintero from El Espectador, Colombia. My question is, what is the outlook for Latin America, and what factors could affect the region's economic growth? Thank you. [00:20:54] Speaker 1: And then we're going to go to the lady. Stand up so they can see you. Hi. [00:20:59] Speaker ?: Yeah, we can hear you now. Victoria Lipo, El Granista Argentina. [00:21:01] Speaker 12: I was wondering why the IMF decided to cut the growth forecast for Argentina, mostly considering it's going to become an energy exporter in this context. And also, how do you assess the fiscal development of Argentina, considering the World Economic Outlook mentions the need for fiscal space? Thank you. [00:21:29] Speaker 1: Any questions on the U.S.? No? No. So let's go with these two. And then if we have time, we might go to another one. But yeah, five minutes. [00:21:39] Speaker 2: Okay. So on the outlook for Latin America, we are forecasting growth in 2026 to be 2.3%, a small downgrade from what we had before, and 2.5% in 2027, also a small downgrade. Inflation is projected at 4.2% for the region in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027. Again, the outcomes in Latin America are fairly heterogeneous depending on the commodity exposure of the countries. AEI has not been a very strong driver in the region so far. So we have the commodity exporters doing fairly well and the importers faring not as well. So we have this heterogeneity in the region. And again, the advice from the fund is to keep the eye on inflation and make sure that we prevent any second-round effects from this energy and commodity shock, both for exporters and also for importers. And then we have a question on Argentina. We are going to pass that to Petia. [00:23:00] Speaker 7: Okay. Thank you. So in Argentina, we have a projected slowdown in growth from 4.5% last year to 2.1% this year and then a pickup to 3.5% in 2027. For this year, the number represents a downward revision of 1.4% and also we have a downward revision for 27% as well. Now, this downward revision that I was talking about is really due to the weaker activity that we have already observed through the third quarter of this year. And we have seen softer domestic demand amid still tight domestic financial conditions and the ongoing structural transformation of the Argentine economy. Now, that being said, we do expect growth to start recovering in the last quarter of this year and to strengthen further in 2027, 2028. And part of that is due to – that recovery is due to the positive terms of trade that we are expecting, as well as the easing of financial conditions, as well as the pickup in investment, which is also expected in our forecast. Now, of course, the strength in exports in agricultural products as well as energy is part of the story in terms of that recovery. And then on the fiscal picture, you know, the fiscal adjustment has been an important part of the stabilization effort. And I think for more detailed assessment, I would refer you to the regional briefing that's coming up in the – I think in the latter part of this week. Friday. Friday, yes. [00:24:54] Speaker 1: Thank you. Okay, we have two minutes. We have a new economic councillor. We're going to start a new tradition. So, it's your first press conference, Silvana. What are the main messages you want all these people to leave the room with? [00:25:07] Speaker 2: Okay. So, let me stress the main message. The global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is reaching its limits. So, we need to move from just scoping to rebuilding. We need to restore fiscal space. We need to rebuild supply-side resilience. And that entails many steps, depending on where the weak links or critical inputs are, whether it's energy or other critical inputs. And so, that's the homework for everyone, to make sure that we're resilient and we replenish that resilience in the face of potentially new shocks. [00:25:49] Speaker 1: Okay. All good things come to an end, and I think that we're going to make it one minute. So, on behalf of Silvana, Petia, Denise, the communications department, the research department, and also, we want to thank the Thai authorities for hosting us. We want to thank you for attending this press briefing. If you want to attend the Global Financial Stability Report release and press briefing, it's going to happen in this exact room at 10:15 a.m. I would recommend you also, tomorrow, fiscal issues. The press briefing is going to happen here. The managing director's global policy agenda is happening tomorrow here in this room, too. And later on in the week, all those regional press briefings that we've been talking about and where you will be able to ask about country programs and get more granularity, happening probably Thursday and Friday. Thank you very much. Have a great day. And if you have any questions, comments, media@imf.org. Thank you very much. Thank you. [00:26:45] Speaker ?: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. [00:57:23] Speaker 13: Thank you. Hi, everyone. Welcome to the press conference on the October 2026 Global Financial Estability Report. My name is Camila Perez. I'm a communications officer with the IMF. And today I'm joined by Thanos, he's deputy director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Jason Wu, assistant director, and Cayo Ferreira, deputy division chief. They will get started presenting the key findings of the report. And then we will turn to your questions. Just to let you know that the report and a blog are now available on IMF.org. So I'll invite you to take a look at that. With that, let me hand over to you, Thanos, for your opening remarks. [00:58:05] Speaker ?: Thank you. [00:58:06] Speaker 14: Thank you, Camila. Thank you, everybody, for being here to discuss our global stability, a financial stability report. I'll start with some introductory remarks. And then we're looking forward to the discussion with you. A key question in markets today is whether the pressures we see in the bond market will affect the risk sentiment. So far, risk appetite has been very strong. To a large extent, this has to do with very strong earnings, upward growth surprises, but also optimism about AI. This resilience, however, is not necessarily safety. And in our report, we discussed three key risks that could trigger market turmoil, tightening financial conditions. First, an AI-related market correction, given very optimistic earnings forecasts, and very strong investment plans in the sector. In the context of very heavy reliance on both the real economy and markets on the sector. Second, the evolving risk of higher yields, which, as we will discuss today, is driven by multiple forces, depending on the time and the country. And third, the known and very much unknown risk of cyber threats, which could disrupt financial services and weaken confidence. Each of these risks, on its own, might be manageable. However, it could trigger unresolved and, in some cases, worsening vulnerabilities with potential systemic implications. So, starting with the banking sector, under a severe stress test scenario in our report, that includes shocks from risk of, from an AI market correction, shocks in energy prices, and in the bond market, including through NBFIs, the banking sector as a whole remains resilient. However, there is a tale of banks that will find themselves under-capitalized, under-stressed, and moreover, these are the banks that are the most exposed to NBFIs, not the non-bank financial institutions. Turning to NBFIs, we focus a lot in this area, because we believe this is where risks have migrated since regulation was tightened in the banking sector after the global financial crisis. And we focus in a number of crisis. And we focus in a number of areas. We highlight that for pensions and insurance, we're seeing increasing exposure to illiquid assets. That could be a problem under market stress. In private credit, we see increasing leverage in borrowers, which actually could lead through liquidity pressures to restricted credit, looking forward in a stress scenario. Hedge funds, and we have an analytical chapter on that, have been expanding rapidly, supporting market conditions, but under-stressed, stress could lead to amplification of shocks through leverage and crowded positioning. The emerging markets have been resilient. We see, actually, historically very tight spreads, despite the rates sell-off. To a large extent, this has to do with strong fundamentals, good policies, but also very strong global risk appetite. However, emerging markets could be affected if the rates sell-off intensifies, and were particularly concerned about the depletion of buffers in some low-rated emerging economies, and about increasing reliance to less transparent alternative funding sources in some frontier economies. Given all this, the policy priority should be to strengthen resilience before new shocks hit the economy. To take advantage of the resilience we have seen so far to prepare. Inflation remains high in many economies, and now we're dealing with new inflation pressures. The data dynamics are worrisome in some cases, and policy room remains much more limited compared to previous periods in response to previous shocks. It is therefore very important for fiscal policy to focus on addressing fiscal imbalances and bringing that dynamics back to a sustainable path. For monetary authorities to focus on the inflation mandates, communicate clearly, and most importantly, preserve their independence, with their credibility being extremely important to anchor long-term yields. It is very important also to strengthen cyber resilience, and for supervisors to reinforce monitoring of bank and particularly non-bank financial institutions to address any systemic risks. The bottom line is that now is the time to strengthen the financial system. And with these introductory remarks, let's turn the floor back to you. [01:05:12] Speaker ?: Camila? [01:05:13] Speaker 13: Thank you so much, Tano. So we're ready to start taking questions from the floor. I know we have a good number of Thai reporters joining us today and we would like to start with a question from one of you who would like to go first. Please, the gentleman on the fourth row, light jacket. [01:05:38] Speaker 3: Hello. I'm from the Standard Thailand. My question is about Thailand is one of the world's largest net exporter of Thailand hardware, of AI hardware. And if the AI related collection, how it would transmit to Thailand through capital outflow, currency or the real economy? Thank you. [01:06:05] Speaker 13: Thank you. [01:06:05] Speaker 15: Thank you so much for having us here in Thailand. I'm glad to take the question. So I think the question is about AI hardware exports from Thailand. It is indeed has been an offsetting factor to higher energy prices in creating current account offers for Thailand. And so the impact is not only going to, an AI correction is not only going to impact that part of the export for Thailand. But more globally, asset valuations, but more globally, asset valuations, as Thanos have explained. In that situation, we might see risk sentiment tighten. We will see currency depreciate, although currency should be shock absorber buffers in that case, and potentially capital outflow pressures as well. So for emerging market economies, including for Thailand, it is important to build resilience before such a shock were to happen. And importantly, allow the exchange rate to be the shock absorber. [01:07:07] Speaker 13: Thanks, Jason. Thanks, Jason. We're going to go second question here at the gentleman on the second row. Dark jacket, please. No, no. Second row. Here. This is. Yes. Thank you. [01:07:20] Speaker 16: Sorry. Maybe the gentleman in the third row can get a question. Hi, David Lauder with Reuters News Service. We'd like to just talk about the AI threats here. Under any scenario that you're looking at, does the world slip into a recession, a global recession, if AI investment comes unraveled and we have this major cratering of asset prices. And I'm just wondering also how you will assess the stability of AI investment. What metrics will you be looking at to see whether or not it's holding up or not? Thank you. [01:08:15] Speaker 14: I mean, there's no doubt that if you get an AI market correction, it will affect the real economy. It will have broader implications. How severe it is going to be depends on the scenario that will unfold. As the WIO press conference earlier emphasized, AI has been a strong engine for the real economy. One of the key reasons why growth has surprised to the upside. When you look at equity prices, directly or indirectly stocks related to AI have been the drivers. It is interesting actually that valuations are not stretched. P ratios actually have fallen because earnings keep surprising to the upside. So there is very strong concentration in the AI. It's, we can say, the single most important engine at this point of the resilience. So if you get a market correction because earnings disappoint, the very ambitious investment plans don't materialize or they do and they don't pay off. These will have potentially broader implications. There is also the risk that the higher yields we are seeing could affect earnings and through this you are going to get a market correction. It will, as we discussed in our report, cause a tightening of financial conditions. So that's why this is a risk that we emphasize. It's not that we argue that we will take, we will see a market correction, but it is a risk given the heavy reliance on the sector. Another related concern that we emphasize is a circularity of funding in AI, which right now is a positive feedback loop. But if it slows, if it slows, if it stops, either because the funders decide to slow down or if the revenue promises fail to materialize, this is another channel that will turn into a negative feedback loop. So this heavy reliance on AI is a risk. [01:10:44] Speaker 13: Thank you, Tanos. We're going to go with the gentleman in the first row. [01:10:52] Speaker 17: Thank you very much. I'm Peter Catterall with AFP. Your report talks about cyber threats, which you say constitute a growing systemic risk. What are the particular regions or subsectors of the financial system that are particularly vulnerable? And just speak a bit more about the cyber threat. Thank you. [01:11:09] Speaker 13: Thanks so much. Are there any other questions on cyber threats? The gentleman, third row. [01:11:21] Speaker 18: Hello. My name is Mahi Desan. I'm from Bangladesh, working for the DLister. My question is, does heavy reliance on a few tech companies and few AI companies? It creates a new kind of concentration of risk for the financial sector. [01:11:44] Speaker 14: Maybe, Kai, you can start on the cyber threat. [01:11:46] Speaker 19: So I think that the forces that are making cyber threats a global financial stability concern are actually global forces, right? And so there are three major forces. I think the one is increasing digitalization that kind of expands the attack surface. The second one is increasing in concentration of and reliance on specific technologies. Think about some specific softwares or cloud service providers. So this concentration also makes potential cyber threats more important and potentially more systemic. And finally, the availability of tools to cyber criminals, including AI. These are global forces that are impacting all countries and needs to be dealt with. So which regions become more vulnerable in this sense is those that do not have appropriate prevention, right? And what we see globally is that prevention has been challenged by a lack of availability of cyber security professionals. There are some estimates that consider that it would be necessary maybe 40% more people working on cyber security than we have right now. And then on countries specifics, I think that broadly we see emerging markets as being less prepared by some less resources that they have devoted to that. But again, cyber threats impacted every country. In advanced economies, it's important to improve focus on understanding what are the main nodes that can impact the cyber threats and how there are operational connections between different parts of the financial sector. In emerging markets, it's important to further focus on cyber hygiene, increase specific capacity in supervisory agencies, improve coordination during crisis. [01:13:59] Speaker 13: Thanks, we do apologize for the for the beeping noise. The team tells me they're trying to fix it. We're going to go with the gentleman on the fourth row, dark jacket, please. [01:14:16] Speaker 5: Thank you, Ed Conway from Sky News. Just on AI again, can you explain a bit more about this circular funding model that you're talking about? Is there something inherently unusual about this or is it just the nature of it and the scale of it that you're concerned about? And just more broadly, can you give us a sense of what we're talking about historically here? You know, how does this compare with dot-com? How does it compare? I don't know, with the Telegraph, with Subprime, with other episodes of booms and, you know, possible bubbles that you've looked at in the past? [01:14:49] Speaker 15: Maybe I can first address the circular financing question. I think the structure of these financing that we we looked at in this GFSR, we looked at 14 public transactions. And what we find is about 650 billion dollars in equity investments, 300 billion dollars in debt investments, sorry, the other way around. 300 billion in equity, 650 in debt, including off-balance sheet vehicles, in exchange for 1.4 trillion dollars of future revenue commitments. So perhaps what makes this a little bit unusual compared to previous deals is the future revenue commitments part, hence the circularity in a way. And so the concern here, as Thanos has previously said, is a little bit of a triple whammy. If there are questions about the monetization in AI, the equity investments will deplete in value, the debt may be difficult to service, and the revenue commitments in the future may not materialize. And looking at this, you know, circular deals also tells us that there are certain companies and nodes that are particularly exposed or put differently if there are, you know, some kind of issues, right, with those entities, then the circularity would pose risks to the market. [01:16:07] Speaker 14: I'm on the second part of your question, I mentioned earlier the P ratio, price to earnings ratios, because if we compare it with the dot-com bubble, that's a key difference. We have a situation in which the market has very optimistic earnings forecasts, and then the actual earnings beat its expectations, and the market upgrades the forecast even higher, and earnings again beat the expectation. So this is what has been going on in recent quarters, and there is a question, can this continue? It might, but increasingly becomes more difficult, and increasingly you have concentration also addressing the earlier question that makes you too dependent on this positive feedback loop continuing. Another key difference is that the exposure of the rest of the world to US assets, particularly AI, is the highest it has ever been. So this is supporting the global economy through wealth effects today, but if you get a market correction, it can have broader implications. [01:17:11] Speaker 13: Thanks both, we're going to go with the gentleman on the fifth row, dark jacket please. [01:17:23] Speaker 20: Thank you. [01:17:23] Speaker ?: Thank you. [01:17:23] Speaker 20: My name is Babaji de Komalafe from Nigeria. The report calls for on the need to strengthen resilience to avoid any future shocks. In a country like Nigeria, the monetary authorities, in order to strengthen resilience, you know, did a banking recapitalization exercise that was been successful. But what other measures would you advocate or recommend to further strengthen the resilience of the banking industry? And secondly, talking about the need for the central bank to stay focused on price stability. We have seen a 350 basis cuts in the monetary policy rate in Nigeria, based on moderation of the inflation rates. What is your view on this significant cuts? Do you think it is appropriate, it is timely, or it is premature? Thank you. [01:18:25] Speaker 13: Thanks. Let's see if there are any other questions from the region. We've got a lady on the third row here. Yeah, here, this lady. Yes. No, no, at the back. Thank you. [01:18:47] Speaker 21: Thank you very much. My name is Hope Mosisashike from Business Day, Nigeria. Now, does the IMF expect Nigeria to repay its sovereign euro bond from its own revenue and foreign exchange earnings? Or will the country need to refinance some of the obligations by issuing a new debt? Thank you. [01:19:15] Speaker 13: Thanks. Just a reminder that there will be press briefings on the regional outlooks. And you could also direct these more specific questions later in the week. But I'll let… Is that Jason? [01:19:32] Speaker 15: Thank you for your questions on Nigeria. I think let me address the second part of the gentleman's question first. We have seen improvements on the inflation front, which suggests that a perhaps not as tight monetary policy stance would be appropriate. I think what's important is credibility. In other words, the central bank has to be data-driven and has to be able to explain the decisions clearly. And so far, based on what we have seen, it seems like that the news is on the good front. And so further data dependence, clear, transparent monetary policy communications would be key to containing this wave of inflation shocks. On strengthening the banking sector, I think often what we see in emerging economies is after recapitalization, starting to impose appropriate regulations to prevent risks from building up in the future. And so these include adequate capital and liquidity requirements, as well as timely recognition of credit losses and bad loans. And in Africa in particular, I think the sovereign bank nexus is also an important area. So understanding the exposure to sovereign risks. So I think those are critical elements to building further resilience in the banking sector. And to the lady's question about euro bonds, we've just observed in the report that the market for euro bonds remains very much open. Financing is happening. For the details in terms of the composition of financing, I think, as Camilla has mentioned, the regional briefing by the AFR department would be more appropriate to address that question. [01:21:16] Speaker 13: Thank you. [01:21:17] Speaker ?: Thank you. [01:21:17] Speaker 13: We're going to go first row. Lady in the red jacket, please. [01:21:25] Speaker 4: Thank you. Go out with Dee Caijing. So a little bit more on the AI market correction. If this were to happen, would this collection likely to be confined to tax stocks? Or could it rapidly evolve into a broader systemic credit crunch or a liquidity crisis? What could be the catalyst for further escalation? Or what kind of risky signals we should be monitoring? [01:21:54] Speaker 14: If you exclude AI from the stock market, the rest of the stocks so far this year have a mixed performance. So the market has been very good at differentiating the different sectors. So you could argue that at least the first round effect of an AI market correction will not necessarily affect other stocks. However, given that resilience in the real economy has been depending a lot on AI stocks, on wealth effects, on investment in the sector. As I said, addressing the first question, an AI market correction will affect the real economy, could feed back into other broader asset prices. And the truth is that risk sentiment globally is very strong, which is the point with which we started this press conference. So you could have a widening of spreads, you could have a reduction of risk positions. And again, through this feeding back into the real economy. Now, as we also emphasize, policy room is much more limited compared to past shocks. So we should not expect macroeconomic policies to come to the rescue. And on fiscal policy, definitely, there's no much room. And on monetary policy, unless you get a deflationary shock, monetary authorities have to focus on the inflation mandate. That's why we discuss these risks in the report. Now, how negative such a scenario will be, it really depends on the details. But the point, the main concern that we have is that a market correction in AI can have broader implications. [01:23:58] Speaker 13: Thank you. We're going to go with the lady on the fourth row, light or white shirt. Thank you. [01:24:06] Speaker 22: Hello, Mehreen Khan from The Times. I just wanted to talk about your warnings about global debt. To what extent is the dynamics in sovereign bonds a disorderly one? Or is it actually just a very normal response to a world where inflation is still persistent and interest rates are rising and we're having a stock market boom? So in most historical cases, this is what happens to the bond market. So how much is it just rational or normal? Or how much is it something that is about fiscal sustainability of governments? And are you actually seeing falling demand for sovereign debt among investors and creditors? [01:24:42] Speaker 14: Now, clearly, the market moves we have seen in rates, some of them have been sharp to a large extent because of positioning adjustments, stop losses have been triggered. Having said that, the market has functioned well, there is liquidity. And we believe that it is consistent with fundamentals. Actually, if you look at levels and volatility in the rates markets, we are back to the decades before the global financial crisis. So we're going back to the previous normal. And indeed, the increase in yields started after the pandemic as the market priced the end of the low inflation era, the end of zero rates or negative rates, QE. So that was a shift to a new regime. Having said that, this year we have new pressures that came from the energy shocks that follow the conflict in the Middle East. In a number of cases from already sticky inflation, a substantially repricing of central banks. So this pushed yields even higher. In some cases, growth has also surprised to the upside, which contributed actually shifting the whole yield curve upwards. Countries with fiscal imbalances have been more vulnerable to these moves. So although fiscal has not been one of the triggers, it has made countries more vulnerable to these moves. And we're seeing a positive correlation between the change in yields and fiscal imbalances. The market is concerned about absorption potential of the huge issuance that is coming from the sovereigns, and increasingly also from the private sector at the time that central banks are shrinking their balance sheets. And you have to rely more on price sensitive investors. So putting everything together, you have multiple forces acting at the same time. Many of them representing a new regime. Risks from terms of trade shocks, from energy prices. And depending on the time and the country, some of these forces played more of a role than others. But all this suggests that rates have not overshot fundamentals. There are fundamental drivers that have led to this sell-off in the rates market. And the silver lining here is that market discipline is back. The market is pricing as it should, inflation risks, fiscal risks, policy risks, policy uncertainty. And hopefully, as we emphasize, this will contribute to countries putting their house in order. [01:27:40] Speaker 13: Thank you. We're going to go with the lady in the sixth row, please, here in the center. [01:27:51] Speaker 23: Good morning. I'm Malika from Moroccan Agency Press. So my question about the Moroccan economy and how does the EMF assess Morocco's financial stability and the resilience to global financial risks? And what are the main challenges the country faces? Thank you. [01:28:08] Speaker 13: Let's see if we have other questions from the region. I see a gentleman at the very back row. At the end, at the back. Thank you. [01:28:25] Speaker 24: Good morning. My name is Obina from this day in Nigeria. My question is on Nigeria and Africa specifically. Africa, we've seen elevated debt servicing costs since the geopolitical tensions started. What specifically did your reports recommend in order for countries in that region to navigate that delicate situation? And what do you think can be done to reduce the exposure to such volatile financing? Thank you. [01:28:58] Speaker 14: Thanks. I want to make one general comment about emerging markets before we go into the specific countries. As we said earlier, spreads have been historically very low and emerging markets have been resilient. And a lot is driven by good domestic policies, strong fundamentals. However, this is unusual. It is unusual for yields to be so high and spreads to be so narrow. So there is a risk that if yields increase because of developments in advanced economies, because of new energy shocks, force that are well beyond the control of emerging markets, spreads could widen from already high level of borrowing costs. So even emerging markets with good policy and strong fundamentals, it is very important to strengthen the resilience in order to prepare for more adverse scenarios. [01:29:57] Speaker 15: Thank you. Yeah, I agree. And I think the importance is also debt transparency, making sure that investors are aware of the outstanding obligations. And transparency is often a good way to reassure investors and ensure that market stays open for many emerging market economies, including the ones in Africa that need to borrow in hard currencies. Now to the question about Morocco, our World Economic Outlook colleagues have forecast a – projected a growth of 4.4% for next year. So this is a fairly solid number and it reflects agricultural rebound and other non-agricultural activities. You asked specifically about financial stability. The banking system in Morocco remains sound, liquid and profitable and fairly well capitalized. So I think that is important because the banking system serves as the core for the financial system. That said, I think Morocco is exposed to many of the external forces that we have already discussed, including high energy prices, external pressures, perhaps on currencies as well. And so building resilience, making sure that fiscal policies are in line and appropriately consolidated would be the way to go. [01:31:19] Speaker 13: Thank you so much. We're going to go with the lady in the white shirt, third row, please. [01:31:29] Speaker 25: Thank you. Hedge funds, as you point out in the report, play an increasing role in global bond markets, including in the UK. I think one of the recommendations in your report is to push some of these trades through central clearing. Hedge funds themselves will say that might inhibit their ability to make markets because it's just more expensive. Hedge funds, do you think that's a price worth paying? [01:31:58] Speaker 19: Yeah, so I think that as Thanos was mentioning, I think that we are concerned with the increasing share of role played by hedge funds in markets, not only in global bonds, but I think that more broadly. And these come mostly from two things. I think that one is the increasing leverage that we are seeing in hedge funds. And at the same time, the increasing overlap of their portfolios. Right. So I think that their investments are getting more concentrated. And that means that when there is stress and investors of hedge funds tend to be more volatile than in other funds, there might be some outflows that are compounded by leverage and these concentrated positions and impact markets more globally. On the specific recommendation that we have for use of central counterparts, the idea is that the CCP's can actually favor and ensure appropriate market conditions during this time of stress. By reducing counterpart risk, they can ensure that there is more liquidity in the market. [01:33:13] Speaker 13: Thank you so much. So we've got time for two more questions. We're going to go with the lady here on the second row. And maybe we'll take a question from the lady in the first row. [01:33:24] Speaker 26: Thanks for the opportunity, Celina Lee from Reuters. Given the speed and scale of AI-enabled cyber attacks, how severe is the readiness gap among financial regulators and governments? And what framework for international cooperation is required to safeguard global financial stability, considering how interconnected the global banking sector is now? Thanks. [01:33:49] Speaker ?: Thanks. [01:33:51] Speaker 27: Thank you for taking my question. The report mentioned about the risks of AI investment. So nowadays, China is developing AI very fast. How do you see China's role in global AI development? Can China help reduce some of these risks? Thank you. [01:34:12] Speaker 19: So maybe start with cyber. I think that as we mentioned before, I think that there are global forces that are impacting exposure to cyber. But resilience is very much impacted by specific level of preparation and cyber maturity in each country. Globally, there is a shortage of professional capacities. But how much efforts and resources the specific countries have put on cyber prevention has varied widely. Typically, in emerging markets, we see some limited capacity to deal with these threats, mostly because of absence of appropriate resources. So it's important that in emerging markets, we improve incident reports, crisis coordination, both domestically, but also cross-border as it was mentioning, and also third part oversight, right? So I think that there is a lot of services from the financial system that are being outsourced to third parties. And it's important that we ensure that these third parties are also resilient to cyber events. In advanced economies, it's important to do what we call, it's further focus on the continuity of service of these critical service providers. So it's important that these advanced economies invest some more in terms of identifying which are these critical service providers, the links with these providers, with all the operational links, financial and operational links with financial institutions, and test the resilience of all these potential nodes. [01:36:02] Speaker 13: On China? [01:36:03] Speaker 15: Maybe I just will add that in October 2024, there's a Global Financial Stability Report chapter on cyber in particular, where a lot of these third party criticalities were studied. So I suggest that you take a look at that particular chapter. On China and AI, I think it is important to recognize that AI has become more global. And so models do compete with each other. And the frontier, the pushing of the frontier is, therefore, a consequence of these models competing with each other. And so I think, overall, it is a healthy type of competition to have because, for one thing, it manages expectations, right, on what a particular company can obtain in terms of financing, valuations, earnings, expectations, all the trigger points that Thanos has mentioned in his opening remarks. So there could be a scenario as AI models become developed, the frontier gets pushed, and at the same time, investors become more realistic about the expectations for AI. There could also be another scenario where information is revealed in a late and very sudden way. For example, if there is, you know, AI models that suddenly appear, and to reveal that perhaps, you know, there is that the market, you know, the monetization in the existing models is weaker than expected, or investment is too high compared to what the monetization might be. In that scenario, you can imagine that there might be a sell-off or a turmoil that might ensue. So I think it's very difficult to predict which scenario will play out, but I think, overall, we can probably all agree that pushing the frontier is a good thing. [01:37:51] Speaker 13: Thank you. So before we wrap up, any concluding remarks, Thanos? [01:37:57] Speaker 14: I'll end where we started. Right now, despite the pressure we see in rates markets, risk appetite has been strong. And looking forward, if this remains the case, that's a positive scenario. It means the global economy will be able to handle the pressure in the rates markets. And for this to happen, the right policy framework, which is something we're emphasizing, will help. The risk is if policies themselves actually trigger a reduction risk appetite. Hopefully, this will not happen with policies that will strengthen resilience. But a lot of shocks can be unpredictable, and that's why it is extremely important for policies to strengthen resilience, to increase buffers, to be able to deal with an unforeseen scenario in which we see a risk of market correction. Thank you. And I hope you found the discussion interesting. You find the report interesting. Any follow-up questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to our office, and we'll be happy to continue the discussion. Thank you. [01:39:12] Speaker 13: Thank you, everyone. And yeah, as Tano said, if you have any follow-up questions, please send them to me or my colleagues in the media team. Thanks to our host country for welcoming us, and thanks to our speakers. And I wish you a very good rest of your day. [01:39:38] Speaker ?: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. 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I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:12:31] Speaker 28: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:13:53] Speaker 29: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:13:55] Speaker ?: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:13:57] Speaker 29: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:14:01] Speaker ?: I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:14:02] Speaker 29: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:14:04] Speaker ?: I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:14:05] Speaker 28: I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:14:06] Speaker 29: I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:14:07] Speaker ?: I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:14:08] Speaker 29: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your days. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. 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I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:16:20] Speaker ?: I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:16:21] Speaker 29: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:17:00] Speaker ?: I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:17:01] Speaker 29: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:17:23] Speaker ?: I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:17:24] Speaker 29: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:17:58] Speaker ?: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:18:00] Speaker 29: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:18:44] Speaker ?: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. [02:18:46] Speaker 28: I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I wish you a good rest of your day. I kindly ask that all questions remain within the scope of the G24's mandate and responsibilities. Country-specific or other questions outside this purview should, of course, be raised in other forums, including during the regional press conferences taking place in the coming days. So please keep your scope broad. And please identify yourself, your organization, and specify to whom at this panel your question will address. Well, let the Q&A begin. Sir, with the hat. Buenos dias. [02:19:27] Speaker 30: Good day. Jesus Antonio Vargas. I come from Medellin, Colombia. First, congratulations to Thailand. It is wonderful to be able to be here in this country. [02:19:42] Speaker 28: Let the panelists to put on the headset for a second. Maybe while we come back to you, maybe we can take some other questions, we'll come back to you, sir. [02:19:53] Speaker ?: Yeah? [02:19:54] Speaker 28: The gentleman right here in the gray suit, please. [02:19:57] Speaker ?: Thank you. Thank you. [02:20:00] Speaker 31: Thierry Ogier from Latin Finance. A general question about the impact of El Nino, maybe Mr. Bernardo Acosta. What terms of climate finance, and we're talking about Super El Nino this year. What will be the original impact? How can we get prepared for that? And what are the implications in terms of climate finance? Please. [02:20:26] Speaker 28: Thank you. Thank you. Anyone on El Nino, Super El Nino, rest your hand? Okay, Mr. Chair, sir, if you'd like to respond on the impact of Super El Nino. [02:20:37] Speaker 29: Yes, indeed. Thank you very much for that question. I know this was an important area of discussion for the G20-24. On the basis that the impact of El Nino is expected to impact many of our member countries, with particular implication for food security, because the interplay of climate and the security of basic needs is significant. And that also, in a way, means there's an implication for climate finance. We want to live in a world where we can keep the world clean and safe, without undermining the livelihood of the people. So, really, the call is for all countries to work together. This would not be the right time. I'm not sure there has ever been the right time to restrict, for example, export of goods, or to impose on due restrictions, including tariff. And some of it is even a non-tariff barrier. One thing that was very clear from the communique, from the meeting, is the need for us to come together to address these challenges. [02:21:53] Speaker 28: Mr. Acosta, anything to add from your region? [02:21:56] Speaker 32: I fully endorse what the Chair just mentioned. In addition, I think it's important to know that countries in the region, in Latin America and the Caribbean, but also in other parts of the world that will be hit by El Nino, have already been supported by different financing mechanisms from development institutions, including the World Bank and other multilateral regional banks, such as contingent credit facilities, so they are better prepared to face this situation. But, of course, as the Chair mentioned, it will be challenging in certain sectors of the economy, and we will have to be mindful of the effects and hopefully get the support needed in case, you know, it's warranted. Thank you. [02:22:49] Speaker 28: I'm going to move to the second in the center. The lady in the front in the red. And maybe you can take another one. And then the second one right here. Yeah. [02:23:01] Speaker 33: Okay, good morning, Mr. Chia. My name is Oyunia Wachuko from Business in Nigeria. And my question to you, sir, is focused on, of course, high borrowing costs and debt sustainability, not just for Nigeria, but for developing countries. Of course, we know that developing economies continue to face high borrowing costs, you know, like I mentioned. So what specific measures is the G24 advocating to make financing more affordable for such countries? Of course, like Nigeria. And did the meeting produce or produce any proposals on debt restructuring, concessional lending, or access to development finance? [02:23:43] Speaker 28: Mr. Chia, before you answer, I have another one online from Shamun Debang, New Central Television, in line with the question, which is from your perspective, what concrete step by government could do to reduce the burden of rising interest payments and debt without cutting essential public spending? [02:24:00] Speaker 29: Thank you very much for those questions. And it's an important question in the sense that borrowing and debt financing is a necessary condition for growth. And every country emerging, developing must be able to apply debt financing in a way that is overall of positive impact, particularly to stimulate job reach and inclusive growth. What we have seen by members of the G24 and across particularly the developing countries, such as those in Africa, is increasing burden of not just high debts but high costs of debts. So the extent that we have some estimates indicating that these developing countries are paying in the region of about $500 billion more than they should be paying compared to developed countries. And so therefore, the measures, like you asked, will be first for every country to look inwards. Look inwards to find areas of savings, areas of revenue mobilization, but also bearing in mind this is the wrong time to impose new taxes or increase the burden of tax, the burden of tax particularly on the vulnerable population and productive sectors of the economy. So, our charge to both the IMF and the World Bank is to find means of making particularly short-term, more affordable concessional borrowing available to particularly the vulnerable countries. And on a more long-term basis, find means framework or policies to mobilize private capital so that public capital that is always constrained is applied only to, for example, social services. Thank you. Thank you. [02:26:11] Speaker 28: Are we going to you in the middle? And in the meantime, we're going to have to wear a headset so we can go to the first question that was about to be asked. But for now, yes, please. Good morning, all. [02:26:25] Speaker 34: My name is Nana Musa from News Agency of Nigeria. My question goes like this. On economic growth and job creation, given the persistent poverty, unemployment and financing constraints across the developing economies, how can the G24 ensure that IMF and World Bank policy recommendations translate into measurable improvements in living standards rather than focusing mainly on microeconomy stability? Thank you very much. Thank you, Mr. Chair, and maybe Ms. Marsha as well. [02:27:02] Speaker 29: Thank you very much, Nana, for the question. Again, for the World Bank, for example, the focus is on creating jobs in a livable world. And this is the case for all of us. There's a particular focus and interest at the G24 about the potential impact of AI such that if we are not intentional in how we regulate and adopt AI, you can as well have growth and more unemployment. For countries where you have younger population, this is a major area of challenge for all of us. So what that means is it's not only just the World Bank and the IMF. This is a collective responsibility for all of us to ensure that growth is not just for the sake of growth. It has to be job rich. It has to be inclusive. And at the end of the day, it must be able to translate to better living standards for our people. Thank you. [02:28:16] Speaker 28: Ms. Marsha, do you have anything to add? Yes. [02:28:20] Speaker 35: I concur with the Chair's response. The only thing I will add is that the pursuit of macroeconomic stability is not a bad policy line. It is actually the foundation of growth. So if a country does not have a stable macroeconomic environment, then it's not even possible to build on structural policies, job-related policies, infrastructure, and all of that. So the emphasis on macroeconomic stability by the IMF and indeed by economists all over the world is an important one. And that is a complementary one to other policies that will foster growth. Thank you. [02:29:09] Speaker 29: Yeah, I think that's a very important point. It's not mutually exclusive. It's not macro stability or job-rich growth. The stability itself is the foundation upon which you can build the growth and the prosperity that you want for your people. [02:29:30] Speaker ?: Thank you. [02:29:31] Speaker 28: And now we're ready for you. Channel one for English. We have to turn that channel on. Yeah. Good day. [02:29:40] Speaker 30: Jesus Antonio Vargas. I come from Medellin, Colombia, and I have been attending these meetings since 2013. 24 hours traveling to get to Bangkok, which is similar to what the representative from Ecuador has had to endure. It's wonderful to be here in Thailand, a wonderful country, a country that has turned tourism into a significant revenue stream and a technology-strong country too. And I have been listening to you talking about two aspects concerning emerging countries and the worry, the concern about the way debt is limiting the growth in many countries. And since 2013 up until now, we have witnessed moments where the economy was growing with high prices for commodities. And yet we cannot fail to wonder what's going to happen with the economy if the debt levels end up limiting indeed the potential for growth. And you have insisted on the management of sovereign debt and how debt should be transparent. Thank you. [02:30:58] Speaker 28: If I can summarize quickly, I think the question relates to the higher debt levels and how it's going to impact growth. And that's also related to the question that I have here, maybe for Ms. Masha from Sufik Fasan, First News Sri Lanka. Many countries face years of economic hardship while negotiating debt restructuring. Does G24 support a more formal global debt resolution framework to prevent prolonged crises such as the one experienced by Sri Lanka? So I think the two aspects to that, the debt level, sovereign high debt levels, how it's going to impact growth and also like the issues of debt negotiation. Maybe Ms. Masha, you can come in on that. Yes. [02:31:39] Speaker 35: Thank you, Paves. Yes. I think the two points being raised are valid. Debt is something that restrains growth because countries then do not have enough resources to finance further growth or they are spending most of their resources just paying off the debt. What we have seen since the resolution that took place in Sri Lanka is that the sovereign debt architecture has become much more robust. So countries are not staying for too long before they get a resolution. Just in the past few months, the IMF updated its debt sustainability framework. And in that context, they introduced new metrics that makes it possible to have a better assessment of countries' debt carrying load, which would then feed into how much debt they are taking or not. The sovereign debt round table, global sovereign debt round table, they also updated their restructuring playbook. That was the round table that worked for Sri Lanka. And what we're seeing now is with this update, we could have faster resolution. The Common Framework 2, another global restructuring framework, more focused on developing countries, has done similar things. The memorandum of understanding has been updated. And now countries can actually have faster restructuring. And that's what we've seen in the experience of Senegal, because Senegal is now quite close to a final resolution with the debtors. So all of these, we think, would improve the sovereign debt resolution framework. But also, there's more to be done. We're asking the advanced economies to assist with the credit rating agencies, for example. How do they support the ratings in such a way that it does not penalize developing countries? We're also calling for a participation, enhanced participation. Some of the sovereign debt architecture, they don't have, the private sectors are not participating. So countries that have a lot of bonds, private market bonds, they're not able to take advantage of some of these initiatives going on. Finally, I think the, you probably have heard about the borrower's platform. The governing council was launched yesterday. It's UNCTAD that is spearheading and providing the secretariat. And that borrower's platform will, Pakistan is actually the chair of the platform. And that is a platform that will provide more opportunity, a stronger voice for debtor countries to be able to articulate their positions. And to also be able to get more attention, learn more about sustainable debt practices, and what kind of debt they should be getting into, and what kind of debt they should not be getting into. So all in all, I think we've come a long way from where we were when it happened, when Sri Lanka happened, right around 2023. But there's still a long way to go. Thank you. [02:35:16] Speaker 28: Thank you. I think that issue is well covered. I see some hand in this side of the room. The gentleman with the blue shirt, please. Thank you. [02:35:27] Speaker 36: Minister, in your introduction, you met, I'm, I work for Dutch newspaper NRC, by the way. Minister, in your introduction, you mentioned the growing costs of climate shocks. Now, I wonder whether you discussed the issue of loss and damage. Of course, there is a UN fund for that, but that has never been used. Do you view, do you see a role for the IMF and or the World Bank in this regard? Thank you. [02:35:57] Speaker ?: Thank you very much. [02:36:00] Speaker 29: I think we always have to recognize that the climate, the world, the environment belong to all of us. And we all have to collectively contribute towards ensuring that we slow down the carbon footprint and make the world a cleaner and better place. For the G24, there is an overall understanding that we need more commitment to be backed by finance so that those initiatives that are being agreed and committed to are supported by adequate resources to be able to deal with the impacts of climate change and address climate shocks. Because they would, you know, they would always be there. They would be with us. And if we do not do anything or maybe not do enough on time, these things are likely to get worse. We're just talking about the El Nino impact a while ago. So we have to at least recognize that this is not some countries being protected or spared, and some being more vulnerable. While we arrived, some of us arrived here a couple of days ago, and just before our arrival, there was the issue of flood here in Thailand. Our appeal is for world leaders to just, you know, put their mouths where their money, monies are. Or is it money where their mouth is? I think it's the other way around. But it's to take action just beyond talking. Thank you. [02:37:41] Speaker 28: Thank you. [02:37:42] Speaker ?: Okay. [02:37:42] Speaker 28: We only have about seven minutes left. So I'm going to take two questions. Let me go back to the center of the room, the gentleman in the gray suit right there in the very back. And then we'll come back to the lady in the front with the blue jacket. [02:37:56] Speaker 37: Thank you very much. My name is Jeff. I work for the Guardian, Nigeria. To the minister, Atomiti, did you also discuss the important trade-off or the dilemma between debt financing and tax financing, especially for developing countries? Because this is increasingly becoming very important as countries, individual households, and even businesses begin to grow under the weight of taxation across these countries. Is this something you discussed? What measures do you think should be taken to ensure that we don't have government of critical for the revenue because of this crisis? I mean, the dilemma between the two. While you are trying to avoid the weight of tax, you are also careful not to overtax your people. Thank you very much. [02:39:00] Speaker 28: Thank you. The balance between tax and debt. And maybe the last question here from the lady in the front. [02:39:07] Speaker 9: Thank you for taking my question. I'm Nancy Naji from Nigeria. First, I would ask the chair of the G24, and the question is around what you said earlier, around the G24 supporting the mobilization of at least $300 billion in private climate financing. So the question is around what guarantees exist that Africa will receive the first share rather than being left to shoulder at the cost of climate change. And in some school of thought, we are still at the bottom there. Why should we also bear brunt of it? Then to Miss Marsha. A few times we come in here and we hear that the G24 is calling for IMF quota reforms. I heard it in April. I've heard it for the past few years. To give emerging economies a stronger voice. What concrete changes have happened? What concrete changes are African countries expecting and when? Thank you. Okay. [02:40:08] Speaker 28: That's from Mr. Che and Mr. Marsha. Yeah. [02:40:11] Speaker 29: Thank you. So the first question around the trade-off between debt and taxes. The way I like to put it is, if you collect taxes, you raise your money now. And that itself has a lot of trade-off. What taxes are you collecting? Are you collecting taxes from the most vulnerable and this will deprive them of money to provide food, health, education? You have to be mindful of that. And debts is future taxes. So it's not one or the other. It's to strike a balance. Bearing in mind ultimately that the essence of tax and of debts is to cater for the people. If you put people always at the center of your policies, it would not be perfect. But you're likely to strike a balance that works and is sustainable. Nancy, the question around mobilization of funds for climate finance and what are the guarantees that Africa would get a fair share. And given that Africa is still at the bottom of the CO2 footprints. There are no guarantees in the world, I would say. But I think fairness demands. Again, the point I made earlier on that there's no planet for Africa, planet for America, for Asia. It's our planet. And development and carbon footprints are directly proportional. So for developing countries like Africa, it is in the collective, enlightened interest of the world to support those continents and those countries to not have to increase their carbon emission just because they want to grow. At the same time, we don't want to constrain their growth because we're trying to protect the environment. You don't want a clean world with hungry people. So this balance requires, again, collective action from all of us. And that's the way I'll put it. Thank you. Thank you. [02:42:34] Speaker ?: Thank you. [02:42:34] Speaker 28: And final question, Ms. Masha, on the Bretton Woods institutions reforms. [02:42:37] Speaker 35: On the quota reform, yes. Let me just clarify that by the laws setting up the IMF, the quota reform takes place or should take place every five years. And the idea is that the quota that a country gets reflects the size of its economy. And within every five years, there should be some changes in economic size. So that is where that's the reason why you hear over and over again that there's quota reform going on. In terms of the current progress, the last quota reform was the 16th one, which is already completed, except that some countries are yet to meet their financial obligations. But the discussion going on now that we're referencing largely in our report is with regards to the 17th review of quota, which should take place after five years of the last one. Now, what do we want? We're looking for a quota system that better reflects the economic realities of today. As of today, more than I would say around three or four G24 member countries are amongst the top ten economies, largest economies in the world. But that is not reflected in the quota because the quota reform has not taken place for some time. The realignment of the quota has not taken place for a long time. So we want to see that, that a new quota reflects that there are, you know, more kids on the block and we can work with that. The second issue is the representation gap. Because it's based on the size of the economy, some of our members, many African countries, small economies, their share is very low. So if you have a realignment, then you could even reduce it more. But we're calling for a protection of the quota of the smallest and the poorest members. And in addition to that, we hope that with those new kind of quota framework, then we will have a different kind of governance, a governance that works for all countries. [02:45:06] Speaker ?: Thank you, Masha. [02:45:07] Speaker 28: Thank you, Masha. We are at time. The G24 communication has been posted on MF.org and a transcript of this conference will be made available later. Thank you very much for joining your press conference today. Thank you to the panelists and have a good rest of your day. Enjoy the annual meetings. Thank you. [02:45:25] Speaker 29: Thank you. Thank you very much. [02:45:27] Speaker ?: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.