Images suggest Iran's nuclear supply chain not 'obliterated'

[0:00] This university in central Tehran is considered by the US and Israel one of the very first [0:04] stages in Iran's nuclear supply chain. It was struck in mid-March by the US-Israeli campaign, [0:10] and it's one of dozens of sites across Iran we've been analysing to see how much of its [0:15] nuclear supply chain has been wiped out. And the answer is not as much as the US and Israel would [0:20] like. That university you just saw has been under US sanctions since 2012 for researching and [0:27] developing weapons of mass destruction. It's a reminder of just how long the US has been tracking [0:32] Iran's ability to make nuclear weapons. And we found that in these latest strikes by the US and [0:39] Israel, while much of the production process has been substantially damaged, some of the most [0:45] important parts of this process, the stores of highly enriched uranium, may not have been touched [0:51] at all. Let's start at the beginning of the supply chain. Alongside the research, the process starts [0:56] at places like these, Saghand uranium mine, where the raw material, uranium ore, is mined. In recent [1:03] years, Saghand mined has expanded significantly. You can see widening pits, growing piles of earth [1:08] and diggers. We looked at recent imagery since the latest strikes and found no evidence of damage. [1:14] In fact, from between the clouds, you can still see diggers operating at the site. So far, [1:19] this indicates this stage of the nuclear supply chain may remain untouched. Next, the mined uranium ore is [1:25] transported to production plants like this one in Ardekun. Here, it's converted into yellowcake, [1:30] which is a type of concentrated uranium. We found this plant was substantially damaged in recent [1:35] strikes on March 27. An image taken the following month shows little change, suggesting the Iranians [1:41] have not rebuilt this site yet. After this, the yellowcake is taken here to sites like this one in [1:47] Isfahan to be purified and converted into uranium hexafluoride. And it's this one, this stage of [1:53] the supply chain, that has caused the biggest headache for the US and Israel. Back last June, [1:58] French outlet Le Monde found this truck visible in imagery taken just days before the strikes. [2:03] These blue containers are likely carrying uranium into the tunnels, experts told CNN. Days later, [2:08] these facilities were substantially damaged in Israeli attacks. You can see several buildings wiped out. [2:14] Then, in early 2026, Iran covered over several entrances to these underground tunnels with Earth, [2:21] preventing people from accessing them. Further measures were taken this April, when these roadblocks [2:26] were put up in front of the entrances to the tunnels. It could suggest there still remains [2:30] something valuable down there. They were not, however, hit in the latest US-Israeli strikes. [2:36] Even experts we spoke to are unsure why. David Albright is a world-leading expert on nuclear weapons. [2:42] How much of a risk in the future is that stores in Isfahan Mountain? [2:47] I think it's a big risk. That's quite a bit of money in the bank. I mean, [2:52] the amount of enriched uranium they've produced was equivalent to full years of production of their [2:58] entire enrichment complex and is believed to be mostly, almost all of it, at Isfahan. [3:05] In fact, the US believes this too, and their demand to remove this uranium has been a key issue in the [3:12] stalling peace negotiations. And finding out exactly how much is down there is central to determining [3:19] whether Iran remains a nuclear threat. Katie Poglays, CNN, London. [3:24] What is important to understand is there are a lot of different components of the nuclear program. There's [3:28] the supply chain. There's the nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium enriched up to 60%, which the Iranians [3:36] still have, buried underground. Very difficult, in fact, for US aircraft to strike, even with big [3:43] GBU-57s. It's just buried beneath the earth. And then there are other things that weren't in that, [3:49] like scientists. The Iranians have scientists, so there's nuclear know-how. The Israelis have killed [3:55] a little bit over a dozen Iranian nuclear scientists, but there's still many out there. [4:01] So there's knowledge that still persists as well. Yeah, I mean, it's, you know, impossible to just [4:08] kind of eviscerate or obliterate the whole thing, obviously, as had been put out there. Now, Iran said [4:15] today, Seth, something I wanted to ask you about. You know, yesterday, we know that the UAE was hit by [4:21] a large number of missiles and drones, okay? In fact, almost the most since the quote-unquote [4:26] ceasefire even began. And Iran then said that their armed forces did not carry out any attacks on [4:32] the UAE. But the UAE says they did, right? And there was obviously evidence of that as well. There [4:38] was a major oil port in flames. And the UAE says it was 19 missiles and drones yesterday. So [4:44] what is going on here? And I know you're learning something new about that really could change, [4:51] in a sense, one of the core trajectories of this war. [4:54] Yeah, Aaron, it looks like Iran is trying to publicly make it seem like this is a war between [5:01] Iran and the United States. The reality, as we look at what Iran has conducted attacks against, [5:07] or who it's conducted attacks against, even the last day or two, it's conducted strikes against the [5:13] Emiratis and against Oman, targets in Oman, and their ships as well, including a South Korean tanker. [5:20] So the number of countries that have been hit has grown. I mean, my sources are telling me that [5:26] there is growing unhappiness within Gulf states who are increasingly looking at options to become [5:32] more militarily involved, not just in defensive operations, but in offensive operations, including [5:38] with potential for air strikes. I mean, I understand that already one Gulf state has likely already [5:45] conducted strikes in unpopulated islands in the Gulf as a signal that it could escalate. So I think we [5:53] are on the verge of potentially seeing some escalation by Gulf states. [5:57] Joining me now is physicist David Albright, the president and founder of the Institute for Science and [6:02] International Security. He is also a former nuclear inspector. Thank you so much for being here. [6:07] First, when you look at the images, satellite images, about Iran's nuclear capabilities and what [6:14] you know about its capabilities from before all of this, what do you glean from all this? [6:20] Well, one is before the war started in June, Iran was able to build a nuclear weapon, if it decided to do so, [6:32] within months and have high certainty, it would work. Now, they aren't able to do that. I mean, [6:40] there's intelligence assessments that have become public recently, say they'll need it a year, I would [6:46] probably say perhaps longer, but more importantly, the weapon may not work, that much of the nuclear [6:54] weaponization infrastructure of Iran's program has been destroyed. So it's not just the enriched uranium [7:02] that matters. That's critical. And that's really the centerpiece of all the negotiations right now. [7:09] But it, but the ability to make the bomb itself is important. So I think they've been, [7:13] Iran has been seriously set back. And instead of us facing a program where at any moment Iran could [7:20] decide to build a bomb quickly within months. Now we're with a program that if it decided to build a bomb, [7:29] would take more like a year and there'd be roadblocks along the way that, that, that would [7:35] have, they would be facing their own uncertainty of whether they could succeed. And so the probability [7:40] that it wouldn't work would, would be potentially substantial. So I think the, the war created quite [7:48] a bit of damage to the program. Yeah, there, there are a lot of damaged facilities from the university, [7:53] where the research for a nuclear bomb was done to many of the other places that helped facilitate [7:58] the creation of nuclear weapons. I do want to ask you about sort of what's happening right now. [8:03] The secretary of state says that the combat part of the war is, is over it over. The president says [8:09] just this morning that negotiations are underway or they're promising. If the goal is to keep Iran from [8:15] nuclear weapons capabilities, what, what must be part of the agreement when it comes to how it's handled, [8:24] when it comes to how Iran is moving forward or not with their nuclear program? Well, there's a couple [8:32] of things. One is, is the enriched uranium stocks that Katie pointed out are very important. And those [8:38] have to be part of a deal to, to preferably from a U.S. point of view, remove the enriched uranium from [8:44] Iran. And, and that, and you, you want to create further roadblocks on, on Iran's ability to build [8:50] the bomb. And that's a very good way to do it. Another part of it though, is, is that Iran has to, [8:56] they, they've got to commit not to build nuclear weapons. And, and, and I, from my point of view, [9:01] they've got to admit that they do it. They always deny it, but we know they've been working on nuclear [9:05] weapons for decades. And so you have to have a commitment not to do it. And then you have to have [9:12] some good inspections that verify that the program has ended. And so I think that that's, [9:19] and I see from some of the reporting that the Trump administration is considering that, [9:23] but that's always one of the hardest things for Iran to, to accept, because I think no matter what, [9:29] what they want to be able to reconstitute, to build nuclear weapons, to have that option, [9:34] if not actually implemented. And these negotiations have to just end that ambition on the part of Iran. [9:41] The war has made that goal much harder for Iran to accomplish, but it didn't end it. [9:48] We're looking at some imagery here of some of the, the bombings of, of Esfahan and, [9:54] and also though where the uranium is mined, and it looks like it's more and more of it has been mined [10:01] since those initial strikes. How much, do we have any sense of how much enriched uranium there is and how, [10:08] how difficult it would be for, because Iran, that's the one thing they do not want to do is give that up. [10:17] In this round, Israel took out the facility that could take that, and it's uranium ore, [10:22] it's not uranium per se. Uranium is maybe 1% or less of, of, of the ore. And you have to process that [10:30] at a facility and, and, and Israel destroyed that facility in this, in this round. And Katie pointed [10:37] that out in her story. The International Atomic Energy Agency knew very precisely how much enriched [10:44] uranium Iran had right before the war started in June, 2025. The uncertainty now is how much of it [10:52] is inaccessible. Some amount was in the Ford El Mountain, which was heavily destroyed by the U.S. [10:57] bombing, any highly enriched uranium there, and rich uranium is probably hard to assess. [11:03] The IAE has reported that over half is in these Esfahan mountain tunnel complexes, but we don't [11:08] really know how much, how much the bombing in June just destroyed some of that. So I think the [11:14] uncertainties are on, on, on how much is left that is accessible to Iran. And it, and it's probably [11:21] significant. So it, it is right that, that that's a centerpiece of the negotiation. Now, there is a [11:27] question, why didn't Iran, why didn't the United States and Israel further destroy these mountain [11:32] complexes? There's two that could hold enriched uranium and, and, and I mean, the only answer I could [11:38] default to right now is they didn't, they wanted to make sure that in a, in an end state negotiation, [11:45] that they could access them and, and remove them from the country. But, but it is, it is a question why they, [11:51] the United States and Israel did not attack these facilities to try to entomb whatever highly enriched [11:56] uranium was inside them.