I feel it in my bones: Trump’s Iran war decision making style — This is America

[0:09] This is America, and this is the public square in front of the White House, where inside [0:14] U.S. President Donald Trump is making decisions on Iran, guided oftentimes not just by expert [0:20] assessments, but by his own instinct. [0:23] But where has that led him, the U.S., Iran, and the world, and what do real Americans [0:29] make of it? [0:30] We'll hear from them a little later, but first, here's Anna Burns-Francis in our Washington [0:34] studio. [0:36] Thanks, Heidi. [0:36] A two-week ceasefire has been announced, but what happens next for the man who famously [0:41] boasted of the art of the deal? [0:43] Can President Trump get what he wants out of the war with Iran, and who will he trust to [0:49] make those decisions? [0:51] Our correspondents, Kimberly Halkett, is at the White House today, and Manny Rapolo joins [0:55] us from the State Department. [0:57] They are two of the most important wings of the administration, responsible for America's [1:02] role in this war. [1:04] The president, reliant on the information and counsel of his advisers, not just from [1:09] the State Department, but military and intelligence, too. [1:12] Right the way along, though, Donald Trump has been keen to show he's the one calling the [1:17] shots. [1:18] We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here, I could call it, or [1:24] we could go further. [1:24] But we took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. [1:30] And I think you'll see it's going to be a short-term excursion. [1:33] When are you going to know when it's over? [1:35] When I feel it. [1:36] OK. [1:37] I feel it in my bones. [1:39] That presidential instinct is what the world is now relying on to navigate out of this conflict. [1:45] But talk of inner circle fractures and opposing advice from his cabinet is starting to leak. [1:50] The Secretary of Defense, one of those accused of being overly optimistic, both in public and [1:56] private. [1:56] But Epic Fury decimated Iran's military and rendered it combat ineffective for years to [2:04] come. [2:06] So who did the president turn to for advice on how to deal with Iran and who is he listening [2:11] to now? [2:12] In a moment, we'll go to Manny Rapolo, who joins us from the State Department. [2:15] But first, let's go to Kimberly Halkert at the White House. [2:17] Kimberly, what do we know about how the president is making decisions like agreeing to the ceasefire [2:23] and where things go from here? [2:26] Well, we can look at the start of Epic Fury, the name of the operation that began more than [2:31] 30 days ago, as a signal to who the president is looking to and just how small his team of [2:38] advisers is. [2:39] There's no question that as commander in chief, the U.S. president is the one making the ultimate [2:44] decisions. [2:45] And that this is a very centralized and top-down structure. [2:50] What we know is that it's personality-driven all around the U.S. president. [2:54] So when it comes to negotiations, they're really no different. [2:58] It really is very much the same. [3:01] But what we saw at the start of the conflict was the U.S. president at his home in Mar-a-Lago [3:06] in Florida, not here at the White House, where his director of national intelligence, as [3:11] well as the vice president, were simply taking an observer status. [3:15] And what that really signals is that the U.S. president is not looking for dissenting voices, [3:21] particularly when it comes to the vice president and Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national [3:26] intelligence. [3:27] Instead, what he is listening to is instinct over intelligence. [3:32] And as a result, what you get is really a top-down structure when the president makes [3:38] decisions, whether it is during the military conflict or in negotiations, to end it. [3:44] Manny, I'll bring you in here. [3:46] Kimberly, talking about those different voices, you're at the State Department. [3:49] That is home, of course, to Marco Rubio, a close member of Trump's cabinet. [3:52] How much sway does he have with the president? [3:58] Well, like you said, Anna, U.S. [4:00] Secretary of State Marco Rubio is quite close to President Trump. [4:04] He has his ear. [4:05] He has the president's trust, which means that he also has a lot of influence when it comes [4:09] to policy and when it comes to strategy here. [4:12] Ultimately, however, we also know, and just to build on what Kimberly was saying in that [4:16] previous question that you asked her, it is up to President Trump at the end of the day [4:21] to make these decisions over strategy. [4:24] We know that because of individuals who are close to him within the administration who are [4:29] more familiar with this process who have said exactly that. [4:33] And by many accounts, President Trump is leaning less on traditional diplomatic channels like [4:39] the State Department and more and more on his own instincts. [4:42] You heard it from the president himself, who says that at times he knows when he feels it [4:46] in his bones. [4:48] And part of this is President Trump's character. [4:50] He's long expressed distrust over U.S. intelligence agencies. [4:55] He's expressed skepticism over career journalists here. [5:00] So, you know, this is important because along with the sense of urgency that we're getting [5:05] from U.S. diplomats here at the State Department and when you hear it within the foreign policy [5:11] chatter here in the city, this is important because this is a strategy when it comes to [5:16] Iran and when it comes to negotiations that is not consensus driven, but rather, like Kimberly [5:20] said, a top-down approach. [5:22] So you have to imagine that there undoubtedly has to be some frustration among diplomats when [5:28] they look at the strategy and see that at times policy experts are being ignored, intelligence [5:34] officials are being ignored, and more importantly, professional diplomats are not being taken [5:39] into account when these decisions are being made. [5:42] Manny Rappalo joining us from the State Department and Kimberly Halkert at the White House. [5:45] Thank you both. [5:47] President Donald Trump has long maintained that he was his own best advisor, better than his [5:52] generals, he said. [5:53] His conduct of the war with Iran suggests he also believes his own counsel is wiser than [5:58] that of America's intelligence agencies. [6:01] John Hendren reports from Washington, D.C. on Trump's decision-making style. [6:07] Nearly two weeks into his war with Iran, Donald Trump explained how he would know when the conflict [6:12] would end. [6:13] When are you going to know when it's over? [6:15] When I feel it. [6:17] Okay. [6:17] I feel it in my bones. [6:18] Since then, the president appears to have relied on gut instinct more than intelligence assessments [6:23] engaging the threat from Iran and when the conflict would end. [6:27] All presidents have their circles of advisors, but Trump seems less inclined than most of his [6:32] predecessors to listening to their advice on the war. [6:36] Trump insists Iran was, quote, very close to a nuclear bomb, overriding the assessments from [6:41] his own intelligence agencies that Iran was years away. [6:45] Well, then my intelligence community is wrong. [6:48] Who in the intelligence community said that? [6:50] The director of national intelligence, Toti Gabbard. [6:53] She's wrong. [6:54] On March 3rd, Trump's secretary of state said the U.S. followed Israel into the war. [6:59] We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. [7:01] We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. [7:04] That same day, Trump insisted an imminent Iranian assault was the reason the U.S. launched its [7:10] initial bombing campaign. [7:11] They were going to attack. [7:12] If we didn't do it, they were going to attack first. [7:16] I felt strongly about that. [7:17] Trump has expressed surprise that Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz and attacked U.S. allies [7:22] in the Gulf, leaving his intelligence director dodging questions on Capitol Hill. [7:27] What about the comments the president made that thought that he was surprised again, reports [7:31] that Iran struck the adjacent Gulf states? [7:35] I'm not aware of those remarks. [7:37] Senator Angus King got a clearer answer. [7:39] Did you tell him? [7:42] Anybody want to answer that question? [7:44] What I can tell you is that Iran had specific plans to hit U.S. interests in energy sites [7:51] across the region. [7:52] Now the president once again is trusting his own instincts on when the war should end. [7:58] Trump says that will be his decision, but it's one that always seems to be still weeks [8:03] away. [8:04] We estimated it would take approximately four to six weeks to achieve our mission. [8:08] I think we're two or three weeks. [8:10] We can't really meet if it is. [8:11] We'll leave. [8:11] We are on track to complete all of America's military objectives shortly, very shortly. [8:18] The president's trust-your-own-instincts style in changing timelines continue to keep both [8:23] his adversaries and the American public off balance. [8:27] John Hendren, Al Jazeera, Washington. [8:30] It's all very well to rely on one's own instincts. [8:33] But at the same time Donald Trump's been making calls about the Iran conflict, his secretary [8:38] of defence has been busy clearing out the military's top brass. [8:41] The purge began in the weeks leading up to February 28 attack on Iran. [8:46] The vice chief of staff of the army was reportedly forced into an early retirement. [8:50] And 12 days later, the chief of army public affairs was also out the door. [8:55] In the midst of all this, a notable exception, Joe Kent, the director of the National Counterterrorism [8:59] Centre, resigned in protest, saying Iran had not posed an imminent threat. [9:04] The firings continued on April 2nd, a swathe of them in fact, including army chief of staff [9:09] Randy George. [9:10] The head of army transformation and training was also shown the door that same day, as [9:14] well as the army chief of chaplains. [9:17] All right, to discuss all of this and what is driving the decision making in the White House, [9:21] we're joined now by Charles Kupchan, former special assistant to President Barack Obama [9:25] on the National Security Council. [9:27] And from Boston, Glenn Carl, former deputy national intelligence officer for transnational [9:31] threats on the National Intelligence Council. [9:34] Thank you both, gentlemen, for joining us today. [9:36] Charles, I'll start with you. [9:37] Who is President Trump listening to? [9:40] Trump is listening to a very small circle of people around him, most of them hired because [9:46] they passed the loyalty test. [9:49] And as a consequence, they're going to be reluctant to challenge him, to push back, [9:54] to speak up. [9:55] And I do think that the United States, in this case, went to war, assuming it would be [10:02] quick, assuming that the Iranian regime was going to fall pretty quickly and that the people [10:07] would take to the streets, perhaps because they thought this was a weak regime, weak because [10:11] of the economy, weak because of the killing of thousands of protesters, weak because of the [10:17] strike last year against the military sites that was reasonably successful, it didn't pan out that [10:24] way. [10:24] We're now a month plus into the war. [10:28] And listen, we can all breathe a limited sigh of relief. [10:33] If you and I had been here yesterday afternoon, I would have said 8 p.m. tonight, going to be a massive [10:39] amount of violence. [10:40] That's not happening, but we're still not anywhere near the end of this story. [10:46] Yeah. [10:47] Glenn, I'll bring you in here because Charles mentioned the pushback or the lack of here, [10:51] and I'm wondering, that's one side of it, but how much does this gut instinct come into play [10:56] that we hear Donald Trump refer to, his feeling that he has about how to make a decision? [11:02] Well, he's always been fearful of and disdainful of, he's resented, frankly, that's the better word, [11:11] and the elites, intellectual, social, and so on, because they have always looked down upon [11:17] him, and they have studied harder than he did and know more than he does. [11:22] But they are less demanding and don't speak as loud and have elbows that are not as sharp, [11:29] generally speaking. [11:30] So, it's a classic dilemma or structural reality in the American policy community that the intelligence [11:40] services and the diplomatic service, the foreign service, will be at odds frequently with the [11:47] political figures making policy in the White House. [11:50] Our job, by design, our job in the intelligence community is, theoretically, to speak truth [11:57] to power, not to say what one wants to hear, but to say the uncomfortable facts. [12:04] It's a difficult... [12:05] Whenever a policymaker hears something he doesn't like, that has created problems. [12:10] In this instance, it is exponentially great, more so, and he will just dismiss and ignore [12:18] any advice or assessment or fact that doesn't correspond to his preconceptions. [12:24] It's a difficult decision, isn't it, Charles, if you are one of those advisors, because, like [12:29] Glenna said, you are there to offer that advice and you have that experience and knowledge and [12:33] intelligence in front of you. [12:34] But it is ultimately the president's right to make a unilateral decision, just as it is [12:40] also his responsibility for that decision. [12:43] Yes, and ultimately, every president has to make tough calls. [12:47] But you would hope that when they make those tough calls, they have a full range of opinion [12:52] and a full range of information before them. [12:55] I don't think that is the case with this president. [12:59] But as Glen just said, you know, this is part of a movement, right? [13:02] Trump was elected because he stood up to the establishment, not just Democrats, but Republicans. [13:09] And many Americans felt that they were left behind by the political establishment. [13:14] And as a consequence, this kind of populism, I know better, I'm not going to listen to the [13:20] experts, is part of the Trump brand. [13:23] In this particular instance, it's gotten him into a lot of trouble. [13:27] It does also sometimes sound like it's taking control of a situation, doesn't it? [13:31] The White House press secretary has already taken to the lectern today to clarify some [13:35] confusion about how America got to a ceasefire. [13:39] So let me be clear and correct the record. [13:43] The Iranians originally put forward a 10 point plan that was fundamentally unserious, unacceptable [13:48] and completely discarded. [13:50] It was literally thrown in the garbage by President Trump and his negotiating team. [13:56] Literally thrown in the garbage. [13:58] Glen, yesterday, Donald Trump said the plan was reasonable and achievable. [14:02] What do these conflicting messages tell you about what is happening in the discussions [14:07] happening behind closed doors? [14:10] Well, the press secretary there was doing what she views and this White House views as [14:15] her job, which is to blow smoke and distract from facts. [14:20] In any negotiation, both parties will put their ideal positions in the public domain and will [14:28] present them to their negotiating adversary as a starting point. [14:34] You aren't going to say, well, the last thing I will possibly accept is X as your first position. [14:40] So there's nothing surprising that Iran's positions were outlandish and unrealistic, nor is there anything [14:49] surprising in the dismissive way that this White House has probably literally thrown them in the trash. [14:57] But this is if you take the extravagance of the current circumstances away or the spokespeople away, it's any [15:10] negotiation will always have on the surface demands that are incompatible. [15:15] And the real decisions occur at the 23rd hour, 59th minute of any negotiation frame and out of sight. [15:25] That's that's how any negotiation happens. [15:27] And certainly has been the case for the 40 years of my career doing negotiations. [15:31] Can I pick up on that point, Charles, because and perfect timing from Glenn there, because the president has offered four deadlines in the space of four weeks. [15:40] So what does the public read from that, that he's giving them an extra chance or that things are really not as planned as they perhaps should have been? [15:48] Well, this is Trump in character in the sense that whether it's Greenland or whether it's tariffs or whether it's Iran, Trump levies threats and then he pulls back. [16:01] And I think part of this is bargaining. [16:05] Part of this is saying I'm going to do X if you don't do Y. [16:09] And then he wants to say, well, I'm actually a dealmaker, not a warmaker. [16:14] And my pressure tactic worked in this particular instance, I think we're not in a good place because the the 10 point plan. [16:24] And there seem to be various and sundry 10 point plans. [16:28] The last one that I saw included points about Iranian control of the strait, a complete withdrawal of American forces from the region, reparations for this war, the right to enrichment of nuclear material. [16:43] Those are all showstoppers. Right. [16:45] And the things that Trump wants, no enrichment, caps on ballistic missiles, no support for proxies in the region. [16:53] These are things that the Iranians aren't even talking about. [16:56] So the bottom line here is it looks like a ceasefire is haltingly taking effect. [17:02] But when you say are the two parties anywhere close to finding common ground to end this war, the answer is no. [17:10] Even before we got to this point, we have seen formerly very close confidants of the president, such as Tucker Carlson, try to sway him away from escalating the conflict. [17:21] Did you try and persuade him that this would be a terrible idea? [17:25] Of course, that's why I went three times in a month, five weeks, maybe. [17:30] That was the first thing I said to the president and anyone else would listen. [17:34] Once this starts, the world is going to find out exactly how strong we are, which is not something you necessarily want to reveal. [17:41] An implied threat is much more effective. [17:45] Charles, is that a pretty fruitless task to try and accomplish to call President Trump? [17:51] He obviously answers the phone, but he isn't listening. [17:53] You know, I think Tucker Carlson represents a food fight that's taking place inside the MAGA movement, because on the one hand, you have people like Carlson, J.D. [18:06] Vance, I would put in this same category, who really backed this idea that the United States was done with these big, expensive, forever wars in the Middle East. [18:19] And then Donald Trump comes to office saying, I hear you. [18:24] We're done. [18:25] We're going to focus on problems here at home. [18:27] And then he launches a massive war that causes huge disruption to the global economy that costs billions of dollars. [18:36] And his base is kind of saying, what is going on here? [18:39] You told us you were going to do the opposite. [18:42] And I think what we see in Trump is a tug of war in his gut, right? [18:48] On the one hand, he understands that the United States has been doing things that haven't worked out very well. [18:54] On the other hand, he's thinking about his legacy. [18:57] And I think that he wanted to go down in history as the American president who finally did what no one else had the guts to do, topple the Islamic Republic. [19:08] The problem is that the reason that his predecessors didn't try to topple the Islamic Republic is because when they looked at the facts and they did their homework, [19:17] they said we would probably get a result that looks like the one we just got. [19:21] And as a consequence, I think they said, we better be careful. [19:26] Trump wasn't careful. [19:27] He jumped into the deep end of the pool. [19:30] Glenn, Charles just mentioned there a tug of war for the advisers now. [19:34] And that is across all military and intelligence, but particularly those close cabinet members sitting around the table with President Trump. [19:41] What is their approach now? [19:43] If he doesn't want to hear their no, what do they do? [19:46] Well, you're probably in the hardest position conceivable if you are in a position where you're supposed to advise Donald Trump. [19:56] It's a terrible dilemma that anyone has, whether it's a political appointee, such as Rubio, say, or the secretary of defense, [20:05] or a professional civil servant like a CIA officer or a State Department officer, [20:10] because he doesn't want to hear what disagrees with his inclinations. [20:16] And you'll have your head cut off if you in any way challenge him, which really should be your job. [20:22] So everyone has tried. [20:24] We've all seen it. [20:25] Well, I will make nice to the big man. [20:28] You know, I'll flatter him and say, yes, you actually are a nuclear expert because your uncle, who you never met, was a professor at MIT. [20:36] That makes a lot of sense, but OK, that's the only way forward other than to go into opposition and you'll be removed from office. [20:47] For the professional people, it's a hideous dilemma because our job is to try to present facts and to double check them because it's impossible always to be right. [20:58] And the civil service, the professionals have been sidelined, if not removed entirely. [21:08] So there's there's really no happy way forward with someone who, quote, thinks from his gut, which means he just acts on his impulses and preconceptions. [21:19] Glenn, I want to come back to you in just a moment. [21:21] But, Charles, quickly, before the end of this interview, when we talk about saying no and who might have some pushback, J.D. Vance was said to be one of the sole dissenting voices. [21:30] He is now being put in charge of the negotiations. [21:33] What chance does he have? [21:36] J.D. Vance is someone who tried to talk Trump out of the war. [21:39] J.D. Vance is someone who was in that MAGA camp, which is no more forever wars. [21:44] And as a consequence, he may be willing to show some flexibility to make some concessions with the Iranians that other members of the administration would not. [21:55] But I think the bigger picture right now is Trump's political fortunes. [22:00] And right now, Trump is facing a political base that is unhappy, unhappy about the war and unhappy about the price of gasoline. [22:09] All right. [22:10] And that's why I think he wants to get the straight open. [22:12] Just quickly then, Glenn, for some final thoughts from you, does this put the U.S. in a worse position when it comes to fighting other wars in the future? [22:20] Well, we invaded Iraq theoretically to bring democracy to the Middle East and to eliminate a threat. [22:27] One of the major consequences of our invasion of Iraq was to extend Iran's influence, at least to the Tigris, the Euphrates River and throughout Iraq itself. [22:36] And here we invaded or attacked Iran probably to overthrow the regime, as Charles said. [22:44] And the consequence is that now we have a regime that probably is more well firmly seated in power than it was six weeks ago, although it is weaker militarily. [22:58] It's probably has more control and it has more control over the Straits of Hormuz and thus the world economy than it did six weeks ago. [23:07] So that is a dilemma. Now, on the negotiations, just quickly, I think all of us are focusing too much on the 10-point plan, the 15-point plan, the American, the Iranians. [23:17] Fundamentally, this is a ceasefire because Trump was in an impasse. [23:23] He didn't want to invade because he realized the consequences would be eternal and very troubling. [23:30] He didn't want to walk away because that would be humiliating and leave Iran stronger. [23:34] So he's declared a ceasefire. [23:36] And Iran won't get any of its demands, really. [23:41] So we'll go to the status quo ante, which will be passage of the Straits of Hormuz for traffic and a regime in place, watched over by hostile Israel and the United States. [23:55] All right. That's all the time we have. Glenn, Carl, thank you so much for joining us. [23:58] Charles Kupchan in the studio, thank you as well. [24:00] We'll debate online as to whether Trump is making decisions on his own or is following the advice of others. [24:05] Alex Baird has been keeping tabs on the conversation. [24:09] So how is the president making these decisions? [24:11] In the lead up to the war, the White House would have said the greatest cabinet of all time. [24:18] But according to Trump's former communications director. [24:22] The decision making is being made by a council of one. [24:26] Anthony Scaramucci saying good presidents may not know the right answer, but they're good at asking the right questions. [24:33] How do you hear a council of one? [24:35] Trump confidant and celebrity doctor Dr. Oz saying the president is on the ball and he is making the right decision. [24:42] And the president calls me all the time with very precise, well-targeted questions. [24:47] He's an excellent executive, superb leader. [24:50] Prominent American journalist Chuck Todd labelling those surrounding Trump as yes men and yes women. [24:56] The president existing in an echo chamber. [24:59] Far right news source Infowars saying the president's being misled because anyone who would have said no is now gone. [25:07] They've all been driven out. [25:08] They've all been driven away. [25:09] Now nobody's telling him his decisions are bad. [25:11] Trump is widely reported to be a big listener of conservative podcaster Mark Levin and he is swinging out at any critics saying Trump could lose the midterms because of him. [25:23] Former mega voice Megyn Kelly calling for an accountability witch hunt of those she says pushed Trump into the Iran war. [25:30] We need to know exactly who talked him into it and what representations were made to convince the president that this was a good idea. [25:39] Who? [25:39] Regardless of who led Trump here. [25:42] Democrat activist and author Amy Siskins says the president is now getting back to. [25:47] You're fired. [25:47] You're fired. [25:48] His roots. [25:49] Now a revolving door of voices in the president's air. [25:54] You're fired. [25:54] You're fired. [25:54] You're fired. [25:55] You're fired. [25:55] You're fired. [25:55] You're fired. [25:55] You're fired. [25:55] You're fired. [25:55] Let's go back to Heidi Jo Castro who's been gauging what the public thinks of Trump's decision making. [26:01] I'm in Lafayette Square where people from all over the country come to get that picture in front of the White House. [26:09] They come from red states, from blue states. [26:11] Some are Trump fans. [26:13] Some are not. [26:14] And so I put this question to them. [26:16] Do you trust Trump's instinct on Iran? [26:20] No, I do not. [26:21] Why is that? [26:23] Because I feel like he's a petulant child. [26:25] Like every day it's giving me whiplash. [26:27] He's like bipolar in his decision making. [26:30] So unless I can trust somebody to be consistent, which he is inconsistent always, I don't trust their opinion. [26:37] I'm not so sure. [26:38] I think there should be a little bit more reasoning behind it. [26:40] He should be kind of considering what his cabinet has to say and what Congress has, kind of what Congress thinks about it as well. [26:47] Do you trust Trump handling Iran using his instinct as he often says he does? [26:52] Yes. [26:52] So far it's working. [26:54] What do you like about it? [26:55] That it's working. [26:57] What makes you believe in his gut about this? [27:01] Because what he's said he's doing, he's doing and it's working. [27:05] There's no undesirable outcome so far, meaning nothing bad historically has happened, meaning like he didn't, the decimation of the population didn't happen. [27:18] His other actions have shown that sometimes he leaps before he really honestly thinks through everything that's going to be going on. [27:28] So we heard a mixture there of skepticism, anger, support and faith in Trump. [27:34] But what's important here is there's only one opinion that matters and that is the one that belongs to the commander in chief. [27:41] The American people have no voice on this until the midterm elections in November. [27:46] Until then, this is Trump's war to direct and the rest of America is just along for the ride. [27:53] That's all from the team here in Washington, D.C. [27:56] We'll hand back to Al Jazeera's global headquarters in Doha.