Hungarians vote in big numbers on whether to end Orbán rule and elect rival — BBC News

[0:00] People in Hungary have started voting in a parliamentary election that's being closely watched throughout Europe and beyond. [0:06] My colleague Regine Vaidyanathan is in the capital, Budapest. She gave us the latest details. [0:11] Yeah, polls have opened here in Hungary for what's being described as one of the most consequential elections in Europe in years. [0:21] I mean, this is a relatively small European nation, population of less than 10 million. [0:27] But it has an outsized influence, you could argue, given the amount of interest that this has generated. [0:33] This result isn't just being watched closely by people here in Hungary. [0:37] It's got the eyes of the Kremlin, bureaucrats and EU leaders in Brussels and, of course, the White House. [0:45] And earlier in the week, we saw the US Vice President J.D. Vance make a visit here during what's a very busy schedule, [0:53] of course, as he's tried to secure peace in the conflict with Iran. [0:58] But he had the time to make a visit here. [1:01] Now, this is all coming down to two main candidates, the two leaders of the main political parties. [1:08] Which party can win the largest number of seats at the National Assembly? [1:12] The parliament that you can see behind me to secure a majority and decide who's going to be the next prime minister? [1:19] Well, we've got some pictures of the two main candidates as they voted earlier this morning. [1:24] So let's talk about Viktor Orban. [1:26] He is the leader of the Fidesz party. [1:28] He's held power here for some 16 years. [1:31] He's a far-right populist leader. [1:33] But the opinion polls do suggest that he may be in trouble. [1:38] Now, he has been known as a thorn in the EU's side. [1:42] He has a different position, for example, from most EU countries when it comes to funding for Ukraine. [1:49] And he certainly made that an election issue. [1:51] His main challenger is the opposition TISA leader, Peter Maggiar. [1:56] We've got pictures, I think, of him voting this morning as well. [1:59] He's 45 years old. [2:01] He used to be a member of the Fidesz party, Viktor Orban's party. [2:05] But just two years ago, he went on to lead TISA. [2:09] And he's now kind of presenting himself as a political outsider, although he was in the past an insider. [2:16] Well, I'm joined by two guests who know more than a little bit about what's going on here to discuss this in detail. [2:22] I'm joined by Boris Kanocki, a former correspondent with Die Welt, now teaches at the Matthäus Corvinus Journalism College. [2:31] Or you teach journalism there. [2:32] Now, that, of course, is where J.D. Vance visited earlier in the week. [2:35] We'll discuss that in a moment. [2:37] And also by Ivan Njodz, a Hungarian political journalist. [2:41] Welcome to both of you. [2:42] Let's start with you, Ivan, because you've gone out to a polling station today. [2:47] You've already voted. [2:48] You're going to vote after you've done this. [2:50] Just tell us about what you saw and what we're hearing already about turnout. [2:54] Morning. [2:55] I voted here in Budapest, which usually doesn't tell you a lot. [2:58] It's an opposition stronghold. [2:59] But there were a lot of people. [3:01] And the stats back it up. [3:03] By 11 a.m., we have a 38% turnout. [3:06] That's 8% more than any time at 11 a.m. before. [3:09] At any general election in Hungary since 1990, that's almost 3 million votes cost. [3:16] So there is a huge turnout for the moment. [3:18] And both parties claim that it's beneficial for them to have a large turnout. [3:23] We'll see which of their statements comes through at the end of the day. [3:26] So, Boris, you were part of the welcoming committee for the U.S. vice president, J.D. Vance. [3:32] As I said in that introduction there, he's got a lot else to deal with right now. [3:36] But he made the time to come here to Hungary. [3:40] When he spoke at the events earlier in the week, he did accuse the EU of foreign influence of interfering in this election. [3:49] Some might argue that the very fact that J.D. Vance came here is the U.S. trying to influence the outcome. [3:55] What do you make of that? [3:56] Anyone who has any stake in this election is trying to influence it. [4:00] That does include the U.S. [4:01] It does include Russia. [4:03] But it also includes Ukraine. [4:05] They have huge stake in the outcome of this election. [4:07] And they are trying to interfere. [4:09] And, of course, the EU also wants Orban gone. [4:12] So they also try their best to influence the election. [4:15] Question is, will it have any impact on voters' decisions? [4:19] Do you think it will? [4:22] I am an old-fashioned Democrat. [4:25] I do believe that collectively society is intelligent and they will come to a decision which will be good for Hungary. [4:32] Ivan, Ukraine has been a real issue here. [4:35] You just have to walk around Budapest and you see the posters from Orban's party with President Zelensky's face splashed on them. [4:43] You know, that in some ways is trying to focus the issue on whether Hungary should have more involvement or less involvement when it comes to Ukraine. [4:52] Sure. Yeah. [4:52] It's Viktor Orban's strategy to try and frame it as an existential threat for Hungary. [4:57] And, obviously, the existential threat being Ukraine and Hungarians and Hungary being dragged into this war. [5:02] That has been his framing. [5:03] A lot of us understand this as a way to take attention away from Magyar, who has been very hard to attack. [5:10] He's been very hard to find weak points on. [5:13] So, for Orban, it's really beneficial not to frame it against this political maverick and him as a long-standing, long-reigning leader of this country, [5:20] but as someone who's standing up for this country and is protecting this nation amidst existential threat. [5:25] So, that kind of explains all the Ukraine messaging. [5:28] It's very important to realise that it has been very similar, his electoral messaging, ever since 2022, the previous general election. [5:35] So, it is a very potent message. [5:37] It's uncertain how potent it is in the moment still. [5:40] Let's talk about this political maverick, Peter Magyar, because many of our viewers will not have heard of him. [5:46] I was at one of his events on Friday here in Budapest. [5:50] But, admittedly, of course, it's more of a liberal enclave in the country, but huge, huge crowds. [5:56] The largest concert Hungary's ever seen. [5:59] Yeah, and yesterday, on Saturday, I followed his campaign rallies in the east of Hungary. [6:05] And what was fascinating, obviously, we saw his ultimate rally in Debrecen, Hungary's second-largest city. [6:12] Around 10,000 people, maybe even more, showed up. [6:14] And that was a great sight. [6:15] But, you know, it's a large city, like in many other countries in the west, large cities tend to lean liberal, tend to lean more opposition. [6:23] But, what I also saw, I went to a small town called Balmazováros. [6:26] It's a town of 15,000 people in very much rural Hungary, historically Fidesz stronghold. [6:31] And nearly 1,000 people showed up on their own in a town square just to listen to Magyar. [6:36] And that alone should be a very scary message for Orbán, because in the past, if an opposition politician could gather a couple dozen people, that would have been quite a sight. [6:46] Now, seeing hundreds there is quite a message to Budapest and to Viktor Orbán up in the castle. [6:51] Boris, what do you make of that? [6:52] I was at Orbán's final rally here. [6:55] There was a sizable crowd, but it wasn't anything like what we saw from Magyar. [6:59] But do you think people are ruling out another Orbán win too soon? [7:03] Yeah, I think it is too soon, and to return to the point my colleague here made earlier, we have a very high turnout. [7:12] Historically, the highest turnout before that had been in 2018. [7:16] And just like now, all the pundits the day before were saying, oh, if there's a high turnout, the opposition will win. [7:22] And during the day itself, they kept saying high turnout, very bad for Fidesz. [7:27] It turned out to be a huge victory for Fidesz. [7:30] They had been able to mobilize their voters. [7:32] But it had been in the smaller villages in the rural countryside. [7:37] Now, it's the cities. [7:40] In the countryside, the cities, we will have to see who was able to mobilize their extra voters. [7:47] Indeed. [7:47] I mean, we always say this with elections, but we will have to see what happens when the polls close. [7:51] Boris, Ivan, thank you very much for sharing your thoughts there. [7:55] So, Sam, a bit of a timeline on all of this. [7:58] Polls close at 7 o'clock in the evening, local time here, that's 6 o'clock, where you are. [8:03] We then may start to get results even as early as an hour after that. [8:07] And, of course, who knows which way this will be. [8:10] But from everything we're hearing, it's likely it's going to be close. [8:12] We'll see you next time.