How will the UK economy be hit by Iran war? — BBC News

[0:00] hello it's adam in the newscast studio what's up doc adam it's chris in the newscast studio [0:04] and it's faisal in the newscast studio and we're joined by alva ray who's political editor of the [0:08] new statesman hello alva hello thanks for having me well thanks for coming and i should just [0:12] explain chris's reference there to bugs bunny is that he and i were on a quiz on radio two with [0:17] paddy mcginnis on sunday morning and one of the questions to me which i did not get right was [0:21] what was bugs bunny's catchphrase and the reason i feel that i can tease adam is that adam won and [0:26] i lost actually so therefore yeah but only on a tie it was on a tie where we had to guess whether [0:31] paddy had his left or his right hand up and i managed to get that wrong twice okay anyway this is not a [0:37] paddy mcginnis radio 2 podcast companion show uh we're here to talk about some of the big things [0:42] that have been happening in the news this week obviously one of those big things that happened [0:45] in the uk was the gold is green attack and just a couple of hours before we recorded this episode [0:49] of newscast on thursday evening keir starmer did a statement in downing street and here's a bit of it [0:54] i met some of the first responders today and on behalf of the country i thank them for their [1:02] bravery we will strengthen the visible police presence in our jewish communities we will increase [1:10] our investment in those jewish security services we will introduce much stronger powers to shut down [1:18] charities that promote anti-semitic extremism we will prevent hate preachers from entering our country [1:26] bar them from our campuses our streets our communities work with our justice system [1:34] to speed up sentencing on anti-semitic attacks so there is a stronger deterrence factor as we do with [1:42] riots chris what was your take on what the prime minister was saying i think it was striking listening [1:48] to his language and the argument that he made that he is aware of the critique that he has faced that [1:55] the government's response to moments like this is as critics see it warm words but not necessarily [2:03] significant action that they feel could make a difference and i think in some of what we were [2:08] hearing there he's trying to he's trying to counter that very aware having just come back from golden [2:13] screen in north london that he you know they encountered a pretty a pretty rough reception and it [2:18] was interesting because in some of his previous statements um in the wake of these attacks he's been [2:23] trying to reassure jewish people to say we're with you we've got your back here's the things we can [2:29] do to help you feel safer i thought this time he was much more trying to appeal to everyone to say [2:34] this is everyone in britain's issue not just one particular communities and he started off with [2:39] he was doing a list there of things that the government's doing but he started off with a list [2:42] of all the attacks that have been in the last year yeah i know i think absolutely that in terms of the [2:46] you know how does society itself all of us reflect on this when there's an attack on on british people [2:54] on a on a british street from what is in numerical terms a tiny community so the vast majority of his [3:01] audience by definition are not jewish and therefore seeking to speak to if you like to to those who are [3:07] and those uh and those who aren't i think they feel keenly that critique about uh at the suggestion of a [3:13] word words and not action and we saw the response that the the local mp sarah sackman uh and the [3:19] metropolitan police commissioner got when they went to golders green on wednesday and then an element of [3:24] it i mean at the very least a mixed response that the prime minister received and some chanting and [3:29] booing as he as he arrived so i think there's a you know keen awareness in government when things like [3:34] this happen when there are terror attacks that it is absolutely kind of a baseline expectation isn't it [3:39] of government that they can they can not just seek to reassure but do reassure and then respond in a [3:46] way that those who see them you know who are the victims feel reassured by and i should just say [3:51] we're recording this episode of newscast at 7 30 on thursday evening and also since we heard from [3:55] keir starmer we then got another quite significant announcement from the government which is that the [3:59] uk terror threat level is going from substantial to severe so there's five threat levels set out critical [4:05] is the most uh is the highest severe the one we're now on suggesting an attack is highly likely uh [4:12] substantial which is the level that we've been at for the last four and a bit years an attack is [4:17] likely so a notching up of that so an acknowledgement from this uh from from this body of civil servants [4:24] if you like in terms of the the national response of a of a an uptick of putting it up to that second [4:30] highest level and alva keir starmer feels the job of the british prime minister is to [4:35] grapple with things like this rather than fend off what he sees as gossip about his own future [4:40] or who might be plotting to replace him or who performed best at a select committee yes exactly [4:46] and we've we've known that keir starmer thinks this way for a very long time since before he became [4:52] prime minister we've we've always said and known that he finds a lot of what we do chris a bit petty [5:00] and um he doesn't have loads you weren't included in that he takes well i guess this is what we'll [5:06] come on yeah he finds the economics so much more serious than the politics he sort of hates the [5:10] westminster up and down culture and i and i think that particularly this week which began with more [5:17] select committee hearings around the appointment of peter mandelson and the sacking of ollie robbins [5:22] that was consuming so much time and from speaking to people close to him i really picked up kind of [5:30] more than ever that keir starmer was just tearing his hair out at that because the economic impact of [5:39] the ongoing war in iran will just be so devastating people in number 10 are saying on a level that they [5:46] think public discourse just hasn't really caught up with and keir starmer has you know his actual [5:52] diary has been substantially rearranged to accommodate all of the peter mandelson stuff they do emphasize [5:58] that they want to cooperate and it's under scrutiny is important they're not being dismissive of that [6:03] but just that actually i think keir starmer finds the what's implicit in all of this this idea that you [6:10] could change prime minister at a time of economic crisis i think he just finds that so ridiculous [6:17] and faisal what sort of economic data will number 10 be looking at that draws them to that conclusion [6:22] that the rest of us maybe haven't quite internalized yet well uh the inflation data the [6:30] economic data obviously today we had the bank of england um inflation report i mean a lot of this is [6:37] quite tentative and it kind of just depends on what's happening on the underlying geopolitical situation [6:43] but i think what what we have now and we heard this a little bit from his chief secretary didn't we [6:49] is the idea that they're battling down the hatches for a glass half empty version of events over the [6:57] past couple of weeks well yeah because that was darren jones who was on laura's program on sunday [7:01] and sort of like almost hidden away in his his his answer about what's going on in the world he said oh [7:06] prepare for there to be at least eight months of economic disruption yeah after the conflict ends [7:12] yes yeah yes so if it ended today and that's partly because of gas facilities having been [7:18] destroyed in the gulf and needing to be rebuilt it's actually i i just been at the royal navy um [7:25] facilities in portsmouth where they showed me for the six and ten they showed me uh just some of the [7:30] logistics behind what's going on in the gulf it's absolutely fascinating and i just came away from [7:35] that thinking god even if you had a piece tonight even just getting the ships through the gulf is [7:41] one thing okay so just give us bring some of that because this is what i've struggled with this story [7:44] all along that watching the the the what's unfolding in the gulf has been like watching something [7:49] unfolding on tv because it's quite hard to link what's happening there with what might happen in [7:55] my bank account soon yeah well these guys are getting phone calls from all sorts of captains of [8:02] vessels in the gulf including like bizarrely from like russian vessels phone up this royal navy team [8:09] called the maritime trade operations team uh another and some iranian vessels so they know it all because [8:15] we're still sort of trusted in the maritime world like that um so there's 870 ships stuck 130 normally [8:23] transit both ways it's less than 10 still this is per day is it per day yeah it's less than 10 so it's [8:29] basically shut there's extraordinary things going on going on if you contract the ships there's like [8:34] iranian ships making a break for it going straight through the mind area it's a big red square on [8:39] their sort of giant map which shows says hazardous and that's and this is interesting this is where [8:44] the iranians say that it's mined no one's entirely sure if it is mined or how much it's mined and so [8:51] there are ships that have gone straight through the middle of it right and so that's quite an interesting [8:54] question because when you think about well how long is it going to take to deal with all this stuff [8:59] is it or is it not mined yeah it is is a difference between it taking a couple of weeks or six and the [9:06] companies that insurer ships have quite a high threshold for is it mined or not that's absolutely [9:10] the case which is like the reality is it isn't that you have to clear the strait and have peace [9:17] you also have to give enough uh comfort to the insurers of these ships that the traffic can restart so [9:24] that is why we're talking several months there's all sorts of backlogs and supply chains that have broken as [9:28] well um but what we've learned this week is even that sort of stopwatch of well is going to take [9:36] even longer because the americans uh have been briefing privately you know we can see out a [9:45] uh some sort of blockade of iran for a few months to go you know they apparently asked the oil companies [9:51] if that was the you know if they could handle that what would they do uh that's the sort of message that [9:55] we're hearing and so that is why you've had these violent swings upwards and actually a little bit [9:59] downwards in the oil price so all of that feeds in to the idea that it's going to last longer so [10:05] the fundamental point is this how big is the energy shock how big is the economic shock it depends on [10:10] how long it lasts what we have now is the information that it isn't going to be days or weeks [10:16] it will have been months and therefore all the consequences that alph has just talked about [10:21] come into play in which case why is the government not being more explicit about what's going to [10:25] happen why is it just darren jones sort of dropping into conversation that prepare for nearly a year of [10:30] disruption oh so i think that they that that was really deliberate that darren jones said that to [10:35] laura coonsberg on sunday and actually the prime minister himself said something a little bit similar [10:40] he said that people might want to change their spending habits coming forward and they might consider not [10:46] holidaying abroad which you know from for the prime minister himself to be carrying that message [10:51] is quite significant and that was really just not a coincidence i think you if you see it in the [10:56] political context as well i think that inside number 10 they thought that they needed to inject [11:02] what they saw as a much needed dose of reality into the political debate because they were having this [11:08] experience in number 10 i'm sure some of this is political spin but they were having this experience [11:13] of basically whiplash of sort of one minute you're thinking about process from months ago ollie robbins peter [11:18] mandelton who said what when and then there have they're in these crisis talks about shortages about [11:25] the economic fallout about inflation and like feeling it quite acutely to an extent where they [11:31] they then think why would anyone want to to replace the prime minister at this point why would you want [11:36] to become leader of the country while you're weathering this economic shock that would be a really tricky [11:41] inheritance and i am just remembering i mean as recently as two weeks ago when government ministers were asked [11:46] oh should people think about postponing or cancelling their holidays because there might not be enough [11:51] fuel for planes in a couple of weeks time and it was the advice was no carry on everything's going [11:55] to be fine and actually that is definitely changing now isn't it i think it's the dilemma isn't it from [12:00] downing street's perspective that you don't want to sound utterly doomy and gloomy and and and add to [12:06] a sort of self-perpetuating sense of economic gloom particularly against the long-term economic [12:10] backdrop let alone the the shorter term one whilst at the same time not ending up in a circumstance almost by [12:16] accident because of the volume of other news around rather whether it be international or [12:20] domestic or indeed political that you get to the point where you haven't done an element of [12:26] expectation management and then also sort of that sense in that look at it looking at it in a very [12:31] narrowly political sense in terms of the prime minister in his future one where you might start [12:35] to make an argument that is exactly that that says that says to his own party why on earth would we [12:40] contribute voluntarily towards political turbulence at a point where there's huge economic turbulence [12:48] i have to say it's quite interesting though i'm intrigued that they are going for it on this because [12:53] although in the worst case scenario and that's what the banglin put out today you could see inflation [12:59] at six percent you could see interest rates therefore above five percent this year it was that worst [13:06] case scenario um one of the features of this uh energy shock is it's quite different to what happened [13:13] in 2022 when russia invaded ukraine it is much less focused on europe and it's much less focused on gas [13:19] that is relatively speaking good news probably not there's less bad that's bad there's less bad news much [13:26] less bad news i should say for things like domestic energy bills so even bad for australia well it this [13:33] whole i mean you know the p it's what happens in asia where those physical oil gas jet fuel [13:39] fertilizer supplies are needed that is where you have a big problem and clearly if there's some sort [13:44] of asian global recession that's going to affect everybody i'm not going to try to downplay that [13:48] but people tend to draw analogies with what they can remember in the previous crisis this is quite [13:54] different um so the peak gas price even in the worst case scenario is 200 pence of them it got up to [14:00] five six hundred pence at some point during the ukrainian crisis and at the moment it's only 140 [14:05] that's one example showing that the domestic gas price implications of this at the minute and our [14:12] energy bills shouldn't be as bad as it was for ukraine but could still be challenging um and so it's it's [14:20] an intriguing judgment one of the things that we've talked about before is about during that russian [14:26] ukraine crisis what you had across europe and in particular germany was this mobilization and using [14:32] less energy turning off public buildings lights or sharing car shares all that sort of stuff and it [14:41] struck me that the uk in 2022 could not have that conversation because the minute someone floated [14:46] anything like that it was like oh you're interfering with my personal freedom you can't do that why is [14:50] this politicians you know and you then you raise the question right now if that is where they want to [14:54] lean do they have the political capital does anyone have the political capital in our political culture [15:01] to try and make that type of economic argument about sacrifice for the greater good it's quite you [15:06] know and if they're going to go for that i am i remember the day a few years ago when a civil servant [15:11] who was the prime minister's spokesperson at the time got moved out of their job because they suggested [15:15] that people wear a jumper when it was called that is such a good example of the political culture we [15:20] have here when it comes to saving energy i also wonder though is this not just an example what [15:24] what is the shortage example of having your cake and eating it like not having a cake and not eating [15:30] it like like keir starmer gets a bit of political benefit from us talking like this doesn't it because [15:36] it does shore up his position it electorally and also i well i a tiny bit exactly the way chris just [15:45] described it i think that we we were so focused on this at the beginning of the iran war asking [15:50] how the government would intervene on energy bills and when and they were on the you know doing the [15:56] the tourism broadcast studios trying to do that reassurance pitch so there wasn't sort of a run on [16:01] gas and people didn't stockpile i think that they just feel like the public mood has moved so far beyond [16:07] that that a little bit of trying to reset the dial won't make that much of a difference but that it's [16:13] not unhelpful to remind people of what they think is basically keir starmer's main political strength [16:19] right now which is that he didn't follow donald trump into this war in iran that this is the big call [16:25] that they think he got right and he does get a bit of credit for that on doorsteps from speaking to [16:30] people i listened into a focus group from sunderland over the weekend and he was getting a tiny bit of [16:35] credit for it too not enough to really stop him still being incredibly unpopular in that focus group but [16:41] this is the sort of the the one saving grace i think in in the view of number 10 and they're [16:46] right that that's borne out on on conference in conversations on doorsteps and so for him to then [16:51] make that argument which darren jones is also making at the weekend which is effectively to say [16:55] in their view this is the big call we've got right and the arc of this is not is far from over [17:02] from which you can join some dots about where a political argument could go particularly the side of [17:06] next week's elections is is fascinating given the pressure he's been under in the last couple of [17:12] weeks although faisal there's a slight irony when you read the the bank of england's monetary policy [17:17] committee notes where they talk about the decision to hold interest rates and they basically say one [17:22] of the advantages the uk's got going forward is that the economy is quite weak right because if we had a [17:27] strong economy and um unemployment was very low and everything was working really efficiently actually [17:33] the potentially the situation would be worse basically there's some there's some slack in [17:37] the economy it can pick up higher energy prices yes and then more than that they said they said the [17:42] following this is similar argument not quite exactly the same which is they may be able to hold off [17:48] on aggressive rate rises because it's difficult to see or they don't anticipate that these energy price [17:56] rises will lead to wage rises and the reason why is because the wage rounds have already happened so the [18:01] inflation has happened after the bulk of wage negotiations but then you unpick what that [18:06] actually says so the inflation will be real but people's wages were set in january and february [18:12] and and that will be a real household disposable income so your bills will go up but your wages won't [18:18] go up to me but it means that it means that interest rates might stay more constrained than they otherwise [18:24] would do the other to help deal with the reality of that because people are feeling squeezed because of the [18:28] gap between inflation and where their wages are that well well it's more that because the [18:33] inflationary pressure coming from wages is lower than you would otherwise have right they don't need [18:38] to dampen down the inflationary fires but the other aspect to this which then affects all of the [18:44] constraints of what a government could or couldn't do and it's very notable that however generous they [18:50] say they might be about energy bills that they're constantly saying it's targeted we won't waste money [18:54] like liz truss which wasn't the argument they were making at the time i don't think in 2022 [18:59] i seem to remember but it's clear that this has affected government uh debt markets and so the [19:05] effective interest rate that's facing all governments to be honest but but like there is a sort of slight [19:10] extra volatility in the uk um and they've gone up and they've gone up in a way that you know if we had [19:17] a kind of regular running total of what this would do to the budget uh you know we'd be asking the [19:23] questions this is going to mean tax rises they've put that decision off until a budget which again [19:28] might go might go long i mean can we even start talking about the budget now i don't know please [19:32] no these constraints are very these constraints are are real and they bump up against any view [19:42] of mass generosity to deal with the costs of this crisis potentially and then the arguments within [19:49] the labour party i imagine about whether to list you know how seriously to take the bond markets [19:54] and and people have become unstuck on that um and it gets quite tricks tricky quite quickly and also [20:03] the people who are either not listening to this or ignoring this and acting accordingly um are friends [20:10] of people like wes streeting angela rayner and andy burnham because that there's so much gossip and [20:16] backstabbing and unsourced stories about people behaving badly um that that it seems like there [20:22] is a bit of a leadership contest going on already well i mean yes basically at a at a at a particular [20:29] level um you know for months now months there's been that and we've reflected it haven't we on [20:36] on newscasts and there's been various moments where it's come to a head not least the couple of months [20:40] ago on the day that anasawa the labour leader in scotland said the prime minister should resign but he [20:45] wasn't that he went public there was plenty of others who were very live to the potential including [20:50] in downing street that that could very easily have been the moment now it wasn't and actually [20:56] alvaro i was quite struck that until about what just over two weeks ago when the whole [21:01] lord mandelson ollie robbins thing exploded with that guardian story the conversations i was having [21:07] labour mps were leaning towards thinking that perhaps the prime minister would be able to get through the [21:13] backwash of the of the elections and and on he may go and by the way that may still happen [21:19] but the last couple of weeks has charged it up again and then as we were reflecting at the the [21:25] weekend at cast fest where is the and we don't know the answer to this yet where is two things one [21:30] the kind of collective mood of anxiety or however it's defined the other side of the elections for [21:36] labour and then even if that is quite heightened which seems quite likely does it coalesce into something [21:42] that jeopardizes the prime minister's future and that's not certain and i think i mean you mentioned [21:48] some of the names i think a very interesting one is angela rayner i mean the times has already reported [21:55] this the new statesman's hearing similar that she's really seriously considering launching a leadership [22:00] challenge in the days after the results in in may and that's like 10 in a week's time yeah and but [22:09] the thing is that we're still talking about may as if it's a million yeah yeah yeah yeah next week [22:17] and i guess because because we have been talking about it for months and months and months [22:21] now it's nearly here and the labour party will finally need to decide what it does and that may well be [22:27] nothing as chris has just said but certainly i think that these conversations are becoming a bit [22:32] more real but no one has complete agency in this which i think is what is so interesting if you're [22:38] angela rayner you don't think that you've complete agency in this because you want to know that all of [22:43] your colleagues who you feel should be backing you who are still talking about andy burnham who's not [22:47] even in parliament you need them to get behind you yeah you need about a hundred of them too just because [22:51] the rule is what you need 80 plus labor mps to sign up to you to challenge the sitting prime minister [22:58] but i think rayner would want about 100 i gather and just to have a sort of you know the heft of a [23:04] big movement so you need about 100 labor mps to to roll in behind you when a lot of them are still [23:10] indulging the andy burnham dream you know that that's a similar bit of the party they're not all [23:15] rolling in behind her but i think also crucially keir starmer has a lot of agency in this you know people [23:20] talk about how it depends on the feeling the emotional response of all these labor politicians [23:27] losing their jobs and you know and what people like anna saw or say well as the results come in [23:33] but then it's sort of how he navigates that difficult political moment it's in his hands [23:37] in a way that like all these camps thinking about what they do want to see what he does and you know [23:44] he people and you've kind of told us tonight what he is going to do which is guys there's a war in [23:49] the gulf and there's a massive economic turbulence that we haven't told you about yet coming this way [23:53] leave me employ leave me in place well i think i think i'd be interested to know what you're hearing [23:58] about this chris i don't think they've completely worked it all out because the choreography of this [24:02] will be quite difficult you know people forget that the results are not just in one big go overnight [24:07] and then and then it's done they'll be trickling through for two days on the friday on the saturday [24:12] at what point if you're prime minister do you intervene and do a speech and this is fascinating [24:19] that choreography because and and it's useful for newscasters to to sort of think this have this in [24:27] their minds we're so used to the british political culture tells us that you wake up on the friday [24:32] morning after an election and there is the result yeah and we will wake up on friday morning to some [24:37] results in england um if you're the prime minister there might be a temptation to go out and say [24:44] something on friday morning but that'll be before we get the results from wales and from scotland and [24:48] plenty of other parts of england and the results depending on where you are will head off in all [24:52] sorts of uh different directions then you're going to have a whole collection it would appear of labor [24:59] folk in different parts of britain who will be a combination of exhausted not necessarily because [25:06] they've been all put all right because lots of people won't have to but they'll be exhausted [25:09] they'll be in the company of cameras microphones and journalists and they will be for many of them [25:14] kind of there'll be an emotion attached to it because they'll have lost uh friends who have not [25:18] been elected or not been re-elected or or whatever how do they respond how they respond will depend on [25:24] who they if who they have lost to which could be in lots of different directions depending on where they [25:28] are and yeah how does that manifest itself where crucially as alva says no one has total agency [25:35] and so the prime minister just going back to the angela rayner thing obviously she's got the whole [25:39] question of sorting out her tax issues what does she do let's assume the tax thing is resolved or [25:45] gets to the point where it's not the next week not not the political issue that it is when it's [25:50] unresolved yeah what does she do for instance if the prime minister offers a receipt back in the [25:54] cabinet yeah which well which one does she accept does she think the prime minister has a longevity or [26:00] not and therefore is that something she wants to take take on that's just looking at through the [26:05] prism of one potential contender let alone there's the andy burnham question and can he get back to [26:10] parliament et cetera et cetera what about where's streeting uh and then and and then the prime minister [26:15] and his allies saying to labour mps of every view um back to the point about turbulence look at the [26:21] look at the economic backdrop we've we you know the big calling card of keir starmer was stability and [26:27] and you want to volunteer that we will indulge in a massive wave of instability when you can't even [26:33] be certain your candidate's going to win i mean that's quite a powerful argument it's a really [26:37] powerful so we'll all be looking at all the numbers that come in for the number of councillors or members [26:41] of scottish parliament or members of the senate but the other number is going to be how much government [26:45] borrowing costs because we can see the bond markets the people that lend the government money to [26:49] keep it functioning is um it changes minute by minute on the basis of this politics it can do [26:57] uh and it can be affected and i was rather intrigued to see that andy burnham had given [27:02] an interview to financial publication bloomberg where he had clarified that point about the bond [27:09] markets because he'd previously said we need to be less in hot which people thought oh he wants to [27:14] borrow and spend more which he can't do i think his argument was in fact we you know we need to sort [27:19] things out so we're not constantly it was just yes it was yes exactly but the way it was interpreted [27:24] was not yeah and he left himself open for it to be interpreted like that but now he's saying that [27:29] he'd stick to the fiscal fiscal rules but seeks an exemption for the increase in defense spending [27:35] which is the conservative german proposal of friedrich mertz so it doesn't sound you know people [27:40] will have a problem maybe with it or not if you're you know fiscally austere but it's kind of [27:45] mainstream radicalism if you see what i mean but he all you know which i thought was intriguing that [27:51] that's a phrase that is right yeah yeah yeah it's not it's not um but then i you know i also [28:00] you know it just seemed like there was an attempt to sort of slightly sort of in that market reposition [28:07] himself which certainly sounded like he was preparing something which which isn't necessarily [28:13] like an andy burnham versus keir starmer thing we should be reading that as a andy burnham versus [28:17] angela rayner thing potentially but he also said something intriguing about about it about politics [28:23] he said that part of the problem for investors was this total political turbulence and we come back to [28:29] this point which is labor have a majority of 160 170 the markets did have a sigh of relief even if they [28:35] don't like all the policies that uh of star and reeves that at least you'd know where they were going [28:39] and it isn't you know wow what we have seen and so burnham in this interview he says well what we [28:47] need is to find structures that provide the political stability i think he was implying working across the [28:54] aisle with other parties and things like that but i just thought it was an interesting argument that [29:00] there is something in the water in british politics which means that even if you have a majority of 150 [29:05] you cannot run the country it's not a big enough buffer to guarantee political stability which i [29:11] think is questionable i mean you might rather say well have you been particularly competent at running [29:16] the country the majority of 150 and it's also a curious argument to make when any any route between [29:24] you know any route from where we are now to him being prime minister is guaranteed to involve an element [29:28] of political instability yeah yeah and also just like that's the sort of intervention that you do [29:34] if you are a shoo-in or a likely candidate in a leadership contest in a few weeks and you want [29:40] to reassure the markets so that the cost of borrowing doesn't go up and you don't have any [29:44] turbulent time no no that's how i saw it but then the but then the big issue is he still doesn't [29:49] have a seat in parliament yeah the anti-burnham runway is months long and there's just it's worth [29:55] emphasizing that there's just a quite a bit of skepticism in parts of the labour party about the [30:01] reality of of what some people call the burn and fantasy that we hear different theories about how [30:07] he might come back or who might give up their seat which often get knocked down don't they by the [30:12] incumbents just this week in fact but then this idea that keir starmer might facilitate it he'd be so [30:17] weak he'd have to and then the nec that like that ruling labor might have a shared interest might they [30:22] have a shared interest in going long i mean i know there's this but you know what i think we've [30:26] gone long because we've run out of time for the newscast although we could go on for another five [30:30] hours it's almost like it's election night tonight but that's a whole week away um alva thank you very [30:35] much thanks for having me faisal thanks to you too and good to catch up with you chris what's up doc [30:41] well what's up next week is that there will be no newscast on tv because laura k will be taking you [30:46] through the first set of results and then newscast will continue to exist as a daily news podcast which you can [30:52] get yes every day on bbc sounds bye bye