How war-weary Israelis could finally drop Netanyahu — The Take

[0:00] Today, Benjamin Netanyahu's rivals are joining forces. [0:04] I am happy to announce to you this evening, together with my friend Yair Lapid, [0:10] I'm taking the most Zionist and the most patriotic step we have ever taken for the sake of our [0:15] country. It's a bid to finally challenge the Israeli Prime Minister's hold on power. [0:21] But can they actually unseat him? I'm Malika Bilal and this is The Take. [0:26] Hey, everyone. As always, we'd love to hear how today's topic is resonating with you. [0:38] As you're watching this episode on YouTube or Spotify, leave us a comment and let us know. [0:43] If you're listening to the audio version of this conversation on your favorite podcast app, [0:48] we want to hear from you too. Leave us a review and reach out on social media, [0:52] where you can find us at AJEPodcasts. And now, here's today's show. [0:57] My name is Mirav Zenshine, and I currently work as the Senior Analyst on Israel [1:05] with the International Crisis Group. I'm also a journalist and a contributing [1:10] opinion writer with the New York Times. [1:11] Mirav Zenshine, welcome back to The Take. It's nice to have you. [1:16] You've been closely following Israeli politics and society during this war with Iran. And I [1:23] want to start with some political news that erupted in the middle of all of that. Two of Benjamin [1:29] Netanyahu's biggest rivals, former prime ministers themselves, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, [1:35] have announced they are joining forces again ahead of upcoming elections. And that's in a bid to [1:42] unseat Netanyahu. So what is this alliance actually offering Israelis right now? [1:49] I think the biggest thing it's offering is not Netanyahu. And that continues to be the framing and [1:57] the narrative in the Israeli political spectrum. Both Bennett and Lapid, as you said, were co-prime [2:04] ministers during a very short-lived government in 2021-22. And so they both feel like they are the [2:11] most. And Bennett does poll as kind of one of the most fitting to replace Netanyahu. So what they're [2:18] mainly offering is that they're not Netanyahu, and they're also offering a return to some kind of [2:24] semblance of normalized, functioning government society, a return to law and order. Of course, [2:32] maybe their version of law and order is in others outside of Israel or critics of the Israeli government, [2:37] but that's what they want to offer, a functioning, non-corrupt government. [2:41] Okay. So it seems like a really easy campaign [2:45] to just be able to glide on. We are not Benjamin Netanyahu. But are they offering something more? [2:52] Are they articulating what they're offering? Well, the problem with the Bennett-Lapid [2:56] merger is that they come from very different backgrounds politically, and they ostensibly [3:02] represent different positions on the most important issues. Now, Yair Lapid is a centrist. [3:07] Naftali Bennett is a right-winger. He is known for being very right-wing and is even trying to brand [3:13] himself as more right than Netanyahu on the issues of military force. He came out in favor of annexing [3:20] major parts of the West Bank, for example, well before it actually became the reality of the [3:25] current government and its platform. He did this 10 years ago. So he's coming from a right-wing [3:31] background and from a background of being in the high-tech sector and offering kind of a younger, [3:36] fresher approach to, I guess you could call it, liberal right politics in Israel. And Yair Lapid is a [3:43] centrist who ostensibly has supported a two-state solution. But over the years, that support has [3:52] kind of deteriorated and become much more foggy in the same way that much of the Israeli body [3:58] politic has turned brightwards and after October 7th doesn't have any trust or vision for a resolution [4:04] to the Palestinian issue. So in some ways, Lapid and Bennett go well together because they're putting [4:10] together what they think is, you know, different parts of Israeli society, trying to unite Israeli [4:15] society at a time when Netanyahu and his coalition have been very divisive and incendiary. But on the [4:21] other hand, they have clashes. I mean, they don't represent the same kinds of political positions. And [4:28] strategically, I'm not sure when we're talking politics that this is the best merger because people [4:34] who are on the right are not going to want to vote for somebody like Lapid and people who are center or [4:39] even center-left are not going to want to vote for somebody who has Bennett on his side. So [4:44] it's not clear to me if it's going to work out in their favor. [4:46] Okay. Well, I want to get back to some of the nitty-gritty in a minute. But this alliance is [4:54] forming in the middle of a war, inside a war, inside a war. So what has daily life been like for many [5:01] people in Israel right now? And how receptive would they be to some of the policies and campaigns that [5:09] these two might be pushing? [5:11] Well, yeah, it is important to stress that Israelis are kind of living in a constant forever [5:16] state of perpetual war. Since October 7th, there's a lot of trauma, a lot of confusion, [5:22] and the last 40 days until the ceasefire with Iran, just living in the shelter almost constantly. So [5:29] the election currently seems like very far off, even though I think Israelis are thirsty for change. [5:35] At this point in time, they're just trying to, like, get their kids to school every day without [5:39] there being sirens and missiles and just having just routine and stability, not to mention [5:44] residents of Israel in the north where there's ongoing fire with Hezbollah and soldiers, IDF soldiers [5:52] who are inside occupying southern Lebanon, and there's constant friction there. So they don't even [5:57] have a sense of normalcy even during the ceasefire with Iran. They're still in a constant state of war and [6:03] uncertainty, even as most of the country has kind of been able to stabilize a little bit now. [6:08] And what Israelis are dealing with on a day-to-day basis is just how are we supposed to make things [6:12] work? And this is also, you don't really hear much about this because Israel's economy is very [6:17] resilient, but very high cost of living, prices going up, and just like a difficulty with the day-to-day [6:25] functioning of stuff. Not to mention all the different problems that Israel has in terms of [6:30] police and law and order and corruption and lack of trust in various systems. So I think this is [6:38] really animating the day-to-day life of an Israeli. But, you know, in some ways, I think a lot of [6:43] listeners probably know that Israel has supported all of these wars. It's supported Israel's destruction [6:49] of Gaza. It supports the wars in Iran and Lebanon. And at the same time, Israelis are tired. Israelis are [6:56] desperate for some kind of change. It's a very confusing paradox to try to understand. But they [7:03] want to see an end, but I don't think they have any political vision for how this ends. [7:09] Okay. This is risky, Mayra, because I'm asking you to step in for people that aren't you. [7:15] But it's that paradox that you mentioned that I think has a lot of people wondering, how does that [7:23] work? So if society, a majority of society, wants an end to the fighting and to feeling unsafe and [7:28] to having to go inside and outside of bomb shelters, but they also support the various wars, what is [7:37] the connection? How do people that you talk to make those two things work? [7:41] I mean, there's a lot of different kind of trends and processes that have led to this moment. And one [7:48] of them is that Israel has been able to be an occupying force and has been able to have this [7:54] conflict with the Palestinians in which it overpowers and controls Palestinians in different ways for a [8:00] very long time and built settlements and hasn't really had to pay a price for it in terms of, you [8:05] know, pressure on it to change those policies. I mean, it's not like what we are seeing in the West Bank [8:11] and Gaza happened in a vacuum. It happened over the course of many decades that we got to this point. [8:16] So basically the impunity with which Israelis can act and not pay a price for it. And if you add [8:23] on to that Israel's military and technological innovations, the fact that it has such an amazing [8:27] multi-layer defense system means that you can go to war, you can suffer a little, but in the overall [8:32] scheme of things, if you count the dry numbers, Israel is not losing that many people in these crazy, [8:39] crazy wars. So the idea that you can go to war over and over and over again, and to continue to kind of [8:46] go back to your life after you go into the shelter is something that has actually allowed Israelis to [8:51] kind of be complacent and to not come up with a better strategy for an actual resolution. [8:56] Another one is the media kind of bubble that Israelis live in and the denialism and the kind of apathy [9:03] where they don't really see the suffering of the other side. They don't really understand what's [9:08] happening in Gaza. They don't really understand what's happening to the million Lebanese citizens who [9:12] have been displaced from their homes during this war. They see mostly their own suffering. And when [9:17] you don't see the other side suffering, it makes it very difficult to kind of humanize and look for [9:23] solutions as opposed to just continuing to rely on your military power. [9:27] And they don't see it because of how siloed social media can be? Is it not shown? Is it not [9:35] popping up in people's feeds the way it is for, let's say, me, where I can't escape it? [9:40] Yeah. I mean, obviously, Israelis have internet, but they don't want to know. They know, [9:46] but they don't want to know. They don't even know what's happening in the West Bank. I mean, [9:51] you know, most journalists who come fly in here or are stationed here know much more about what's [9:56] happening in the West Bank than the average Israeli does. So, yeah, it's just this idea that we don't [10:03] want to know. Because knowing is too painful. [10:06] Um, there is a deeper toll to what's happening. And we're seeing that represented in studies and [10:16] news headlines and reports about this internal toll on soldiers, on families, on society more broadly. [10:23] There are reports of rising suicides among soldiers, increasing trauma, a sense that the war [10:29] is taking a psychological toll that isn't always visible. Are you seeing something that may not be [10:36] obvious to people outside of Israel right now? [10:38] Yes. And I'm glad that you asked that because I do think that because of all of the [10:44] really horrifying and destructive actions that Israel has taken, it's hard for people to see [10:49] Israelis as humans. And there is a lot of trauma. I mean, you know, talking about soldiers, PTSD, [10:56] soldiers committing suicide, of course, there's also reservists. But you basically have a very [11:01] militaristic society that is used to having very short wars and has suddenly been in war nonstop for [11:10] almost three years. And that's taking a huge toll on society. So, you know, it takes all kinds of [11:16] expressions, whether it's domestic violence or road rage and, you know, car accidents are the number one [11:22] killer in Israel and something that's getting worse. Just acrimony between people, tensions. So all this [11:32] takes a toll. I think on children, mostly the fact, I can speak also, the lack of routine, the fact that [11:39] on a given day, you don't know if you're going to have to be in a shelter or not. Kids weren't in school [11:44] for six weeks straight during this last war. So that kind of uncertainty and instability, I think, [11:52] has a huge toll that I think even the people themselves don't realize the toll that it takes, [11:59] and the kind of adrenaline that you go through and then aren't able to process. [12:04] Well, I promised we'd get back to the politics, so I want to link these two things together because [12:11] all of what you're discussing has to be a huge pressure point on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [12:18] and a win in the camp of those who are campaigning as not Benjamin Netanyahu, who is presiding over all [12:24] of this. So on top of that, he's also got the corruption charges. He has health issues. He has [12:31] the failures to meet some of the war objectives. And polls suggest he could struggle to hold onto power. [12:38] Now, I say all that, but also know he has faced tough challenges before, [12:42] and he still survives them politically, which is why he has been such a long-serving Prime Minister. [12:47] So what is making him politically vulnerable right now? [12:51] Well, yeah, he has been polling poorly since October 7th, and nothing has really changed that. [13:01] Of course, polls are just polls. We don't know what happened in real time. But [13:04] even before October 7th, Israelis started to dislike Netanyahu because he became a lot more [13:11] authoritarian, anti-democratic, and Jewish Israelis started to feel it themselves in all kinds of ways. [13:18] Once again, tens of thousands are out on the streets across Israel protesting against their [13:24] government. Every Saturday, they gather, calling this right-wing government a threat to democracy and [13:29] the rule of law because it's a coalition built around openly far-right parties. [13:33] If you put the Palestinians on the side for a second, there's just, you know, Israel is part of [13:38] the Western world, the Western economy. And Israelis want to feel like they're part of the liberal [13:43] democratic order. And Netanyahu, who has built his career on being right-wing, but really kind of [13:49] pushed all the way right with the second Trump term. And his coalition that he formed in the end of 2022 [13:56] is very openly racist, annexationist. So he went from being kind of a savvy statesman to somebody [14:02] who's very openly looking for political survival because of his corruption charges, and somebody [14:07] who's openly, you know, dehumanizing everybody around him who doesn't agree with him. And Israelis [14:13] started to wake up and realize this is problematic for us. We might wake up, you know, in a few years' [14:19] time when our own rights will be taken away from us. So that's my analysis of how many Jewish Israelis [14:26] who are still with Netanyahu, possibly on, for example, opposing Palestinian statehood, [14:31] but really don't want to vote for him. There's other issues, of course, that play a role in this. [14:36] He has tied his political fate to the ultra-Orthodox Jewish minority in Israel who don't serve in the army. [14:43] And when you have 300,000 Israelis who have been serving in reserve duty over the course of the [14:47] last few years, that also creates animosity because there's no equality in the draft law for them. [14:53] And at the same time, he has overseen a country at war on several fronts. And we've seen, [15:00] despite, I think, what are strategic failures in achieving the goals in all of the fronts, [15:04] he's also kind of reshaped the Middle East. I mean, not just him, but everything that we've seen [15:09] unfold, the fall of Assad in Syria, Hezbollah becoming much weaker in Lebanon, there's a new [15:15] government in Lebanon. These are opportunities that he could actually claim to have some [15:19] achievement in. And of course, you know, the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran, which currently seems to [15:25] be quite a disaster, but he still seems to try to sell it as a win along with Trump. So, I mean, [15:34] he could very reasonably stay in Israeli politics, but it looks like people are finally going to try [15:42] to vote him out. And it should not be ruled out that he will try to undermine the results, [15:48] that people will feel intimidated on the day of the election. And I should also note that there are [15:54] 20% of Israel are Palestinian citizens, Arab Palestinians, who could really be game changers in [16:01] this election and who are constantly, in addition to being silenced, suppressed, discriminated against [16:08] systematically in Israel, are also being directly incited against as illegitimate partners in Israeli [16:14] politics, despite the fact that they are a major force in the election and could really swing it [16:22] against Netanyahu. What do you think it would take for the alliance then to win? Will it take much? [16:28] Is it going to take a lot of effort? Well, because Israel has coalition politics, [16:33] there's many parties. And there is another party that's led by a former chief of staff who is [16:39] considered very strong. His name is Gadi Eisencott. He's polling very strongly now. I think Bennett and [16:45] Lapid's merger is in the hopes that he will join them. And I think in terms of just the wonkiness of [16:51] coalition politics here, if you want to try and overseet Netanyahu, you need to have a very clear, [16:58] strong block of parties that unite and a strong leader that leads them. In this case, Bennett. [17:04] But Eisencott, who is a bit of a more centrist leader than Bennett, he's trying to appeal to his [17:12] own base. So the big question is, will they merge or not? And again, in Israeli timelines, six months till [17:20] the elections is like six years, and so much could happen until then, and it's hard to tell. But the [17:26] going consensus is that if they want to try and upturn this election, they are going to need to [17:32] unite. All of these parties are going to need to come together. [17:35] Yeah. Well, we put them aside a little earlier, touched on them a bit, and we talked about the [17:44] politics, but let's talk about Palestinians. The Palestinians, those living under occupation, [17:49] and Palestinian citizens of Israel. Where do they fit in all of this with either of these options? [17:56] I mean, it's crazy to say, but they don't fit anywhere. I mean, the October 7th and everything [18:03] that's happened since then has only pushed, I think, Israelis farther from understanding that [18:10] the Palestinian issue is central to Israel's ability. Like, Israel will not be safe until [18:15] Palestinians are safe and have a political future. I mean, it's a cliche, but I think it remains true. [18:20] There is a growing movement of people who understand that, but they still don't have [18:26] enough political power in Israel. It's more of a grassroots thing. But Palestinian citizens of Israel [18:34] have been going through also organized violence and crime in their communities that the police in [18:40] Israel are not cracking down on in a very clear way. Shocking statistics from Israel. One Arab citizen [18:47] of the country killed every 36 hours on average this last year, 2025. Now, in the latest news just [18:54] today, five people shot in less than 24 hours. And they are looking to really change their reality [19:04] through these elections. And so I think that, as I said before, they have a lot of power and potential [19:10] to do that. But it's really going to be a battle for legitimacy. And again, [19:17] the kind of purity and fairness of the election themselves. Are they going to feel safe going to [19:22] the polls? Are they going to be able to access their election? I mean, even just the basics of [19:28] those logistics, I think, are in question. And there's going to be all kinds of legal efforts to [19:34] delegitimize Arab parties and their vote. So it's a real struggle. But in terms of the Israeli narrative, [19:42] the Palestinian issue is nowhere on the ballot. It's not on the agenda. [19:47] No. Well, finally, given everything that we just talked about, I want to look towards the future [19:54] and this late October deadline for elections with some talk that it could be moved up to [19:59] as early as September if Netanyahu gets his way. But I want to ask you, if I were to call you up again, [20:09] and six months to a year, which is very likely, and I hope you answer, what do you think Israel [20:15] will look like at that point, post-elections? [20:18] It very much depends on the result, obviously. If we assume that Netanyahu is dethroned, then [20:29] you will have a much different-looking Israeli political scene, in the sense that you will have [20:37] leaders who are interested in regaining Israel's image in the West and regaining the trust of [20:43] certain counterparts, because currently the Israeli government is picking fights with every European [20:48] country possible. And I believe it would look different. It would also have different optics [20:54] on the West Bank, but only to a certain extent, because there just isn't enough support in Israel [21:00] for real change on the Palestinian issue, as I was saying. And so I don't want to take away from the fact [21:06] that a different coalition will make certain changes and could lead to better changes in Israel. [21:14] But for the most part, on the Palestinian issue, it will be the continuation of much of the same. [21:19] The fear is also that it will be a bit of a fig leaf, and that, you know, many countries that are [21:24] thinking about taking certain sanctions or other pressure mechanisms on Israel will then stop and say, [21:30] oh, we have this new government, which tends to happen. [21:32] Right. Because the problem is Bibi. [21:35] Exactly. [21:36] And for our listeners not in the know, Bibi being the way-too-cute moniker for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. [21:42] That's right. And I have argued many times over the course of the last few years that [21:47] the problem is definitely not just Bibi. The problem is much deeper, but Bibi has also transformed Israel [21:54] over the last 20 years. So they go together. But that being said, if Bibi vacates Israeli politics, [22:02] you will have all kinds of new shifts and new things that come about. Maybe not all good, [22:09] but he will allow for other spaces to take place. And it's very, very important that that happens, [22:14] because we're currently in a society that I think almost feels like they've been taken hostage. [22:18] Even if that's not actually the case, they feel like they've been taken hostage by this one man. [22:23] Madhav, thank you so much for this conversation and for your analysis. [22:27] Thank you for having me. [22:29] Madhav, thank you so much. [22:30] Thank you. [22:30] Thank you. [22:31] Yeah.