How Trump's voter base is cracking: Defectors, loyalists, indies & more

[0:00] Hey there, I'm Harry Anton and today we're counting down the top 10 key groups that [0:04] voted for Donald Trump back in 2024 but have shifted against him as he goes underwater. [0:09] And we're gonna start with the smallest movement and build our way up to the biggest movement. [0:14] And we're gonna do so looking at the pure data, the raw numbers, baby. [0:19] So let's start off with Generation X, which I often feel like gets ignored, right? [0:22] We talk about millennials, we talk about Gen Z, we talk about the baby boomers. [0:26] But Generation X was the most Trump-y generation. [0:29] We won him by seven points back in 2024. [0:32] But down he goes, down he goes now to minus 12 points on the net approval rating. [0:36] That is a 19-point shift away from Donald John Trump. [0:40] I dare say he has a bit of a St. Elmo's fire on his hand. [0:44] I'm sorry, I just love all those movies back from the 1980s. [0:47] Of course, another key group that voted for Donald Trump back in 2024, which we saw a similar [0:54] shift, is men, male voters. [0:56] We talk about a gender divide in politics. [0:58] Men vote for Democrats, men vote for Republicans, but now even men have turned against the President [1:03] of the United States. [1:04] Look at this. [1:05] Going from plus 12 points, that was his win back in 2024 over Kamala Harris. [1:10] And now, his net approval rating, minus seven points. [1:14] Again, we're talking about a 19-point shift away from the President of the United States. [1:19] Male voters are saying, mm-mm-mm-mm-mm-mm-mm. [1:22] Mike Dikembe Mutombo when it comes to Donald John Trump. [1:25] Now, an even bigger shift that we're seeing is amongst suburban voters. [1:29] You'll win in the suburbs. [1:30] You'll win elections. [1:31] That's how it works in the United States of America. [1:34] You'll look at Fox News polling back in October of 2024. [1:36] Look at this. [1:37] Donald Trump had a small lead, very much matching what he won by nationally, pretty much so. [1:42] Look at that. [1:43] A two-point advantage. [1:44] A two-point advantage. [1:45] But look at this. [1:46] In the suburbs, minus 20 points now in the net approval rating for Donald Trump, at least [1:51] as recently as late March. [1:53] We saw that in the special election last week, right? [1:56] New Jersey's 11th District, a lot of suburbs there. [1:59] Went heavily, heavily for the Democratic candidate by about 20 points. [2:02] So we're seeing this movement actually show itself down-ballot. [2:07] Now, a slightly bigger shift, a slightly bigger shift, but one is very much in the news right [2:11] now, given the war of words between Pope Leo XIV and Donald Trump, Catholics, Catholics. [2:17] This was such a big component of Donald Trump's coalition back in 2024. [2:22] Look at this. [2:23] He won Catholics by 20 points. [2:25] But now, even before Trump and Pope Leo butted heads, Trump was underwater, down into the Dead [2:32] Sea. [2:33] Look at this. [2:34] Minus four points. [2:35] That's a 24-point shift away from the President of the United States. [2:40] Now, if we're looking at a group that had a very similar shift, remember, back in 2024, [2:45] it was all about young men, right? [2:47] Young men moving away from the Democrats, moving towards the Republicans and Donald Trump. [2:52] Well, they're shifting back again. [2:55] Because take a look here. [2:56] Men under 45 on Trump. [2:58] In 2024, Donald Trump won them by five points. [3:02] Look now, though. [3:03] The net approval rating, minus 19 points. [3:06] Again, that is a absolutely huge shift away from the President of the United States. [3:12] We're talking about, again, an over 20-point shift away from Donald John Trump. [3:18] Now, an even bigger movement, again, talking about groups that traditionally had been Democratic, [3:24] but in 2024 saw massive shifts towards the Republican Party and Donald Trump. [3:30] If we look at men of color, men of color, back in October of 2024, according to Fox News polling, [3:36] Trump led, although it was within the margin of error, but still led by one point. [3:40] Look at him now. [3:41] Look at him now, according to Fox News polling. [3:43] We're talking about Donald Trump, 26 points underwater with men of color. [3:48] This is a 27-point shift away from the President of the United States. [3:54] Now an even bigger, even bigger shift. [3:58] How about voters in households making under $50,000? [4:01] This was a historic win for Donald John Trump. [4:04] You never really saw this in past elections, but he actually won. [4:09] Voters with under $50,000 in income back in 2024, he won them by two points. [4:13] But now, you can wave that movement. [4:16] Adios, amigos, goodbye. [4:18] See you later as I channel my inner Jack Buck. [4:21] He was an announcer back in the 80s and 90s and early 20s, 70s as well. [4:24] He broadcast for the St. Louis Cardinals, for those of you who don't know. [4:27] Also did a lot of great national games. [4:29] Either way, look at this. [4:30] A plus-two point Trump win, a historic win for him, with voters making under $50,000 back [4:36] in 2024. [4:37] But down he goes. [4:38] Look at that. [4:39] We're now talking about his net approval being negative 27 points. [4:43] That is a nearly 30-point shift amongst this key group that had shifted into the Trump column. [4:48] An even bigger shift, though, is this one. [4:51] Look at this. [4:52] We're talking about white men with a college degree. [4:55] This was a group that was a key, pivotal group that, again, we saw big movement from [5:00] back in 2020 to 2024. [5:03] And we saw it in the Fox News polling. [5:04] Look at this. [5:05] In October of 2024, Donald Trump had a 15-point advantage over Kamala Harris amongst this group. [5:11] But look now. [5:12] Oh, boy. [5:14] This is no bueno. [5:15] He is now 16 points underwater as of late March. [5:18] That is an over 30-point movement away from Donald Trump. [5:22] So now we've gotten into the 30s in terms of the shifts away from Donald Trump, how far [5:27] he's gone underwater. [5:28] Now you think this is a big one. [5:30] How about married folks? [5:32] Married folks, right? [5:33] Those who are not married traditionally Democratic. [5:35] Those who are married traditionally Republican. [5:38] But they're not on Donald Trump's side anymore. [5:40] Take a look here. [5:41] Okay. [5:42] It turns out that the marriage of Donald Trump and married people, it turns out that that [5:47] marriage is not blissful. [5:50] Not blissful at all. [5:51] Because take a look here. [5:52] Married voters on Trump. [5:54] In the 2024 election, take a look here. [5:56] Donald Trump won this group over Kamala Harris by 14 points, according to the exit polls. [6:01] Look at the net approval rating now. [6:03] Uh-oh. [6:04] Minus 18 points. [6:06] That's a 32-point shift away from the President of the United States, according to UMass Amherst [6:15] polling. [6:16] And I will, of course, note that those who are unmarried are even worse off when it comes [6:20] to their feelings towards Donald John Trump. [6:23] So Trump isn't winning married folks or unmarried folks. [6:26] And I got news for you. [6:28] It's one of those two options. [6:29] One of those two options. [6:30] You either want to be in one group or the other or wish you were not in either one of [6:34] those groups. [6:35] Sometimes I know how it is in relationships. [6:36] No, I'm not saying anything here. [6:38] But either way, we're talking about a 32-point shift away from Donald John Trump when it [6:42] comes to married folks. [6:43] Lastly, the biggest shift of all. [6:46] And this one is the true shocker, folks. [6:48] So if you stay tuned through this part of the video, thumbs up to you. [6:52] Everyone should have. [6:53] But the payoff is really big. [6:55] Because just take a look here. [6:56] Okay. [6:57] We talk about the Donald Trump coalition. [6:59] The group that he gained so much ground amongst back in 2016, the big shift away from 2012. [7:07] White voters without a college degree. [7:11] White voters with no college degree. [7:13] And back in 2024, you jump ahead from 2016 to 2024. [7:17] Look at this. [7:19] Donald Trump won this group by 34 points. [7:23] Woof. [7:24] Look at an average of the recent polling. [7:26] Even this core group, this core group of Donald John Trump's coalition, he is now underwater [7:32] with. [7:33] Look at this. [7:34] He's now negative two points on the net approval rating. [7:37] That is a 36-point shift away from Donald John Trump. [7:42] And that means very bad news. [7:44] And that is why Donald Trump is hitting all-time record lows when it comes to his second term. [7:49] And that is a big reason why Republicans are going to be in such big problems in the midterm [7:54] elections if, in fact, these numbers hold because a lot of these groups that have turned against [7:58] Donald Trump will be turning against Republican members of Congress as well. [8:03] Young people in this country are feeling a tremendous amount of frustration when it comes to what [8:08] they view as the basic necessities of life, and young men in particular, those who powered [8:13] Donald Trump to victory back in 2024, well, they're feeling a lot of regret over their [8:18] vote choice. [8:19] So what are we talking about here? [8:20] Well, let's talk about what is right at the bottom. [8:24] If you were building out the house in terms of the American dream, it is literally the [8:27] ability to buy a home. [8:29] And young people, well, there's not a lot of hope for them when it comes to buying a [8:32] home. [8:33] And these numbers have changed tremendously. [8:35] Look at this. [8:36] Okay. [8:37] Age 18 to 34, that is adults under the age of 35, will buy a home in the next five years. [8:42] You go back to 2016, 2018, Gallup surveys, look at that. [8:46] The majority, 53% said they would buy a home in the next five years, those who didn't already [8:51] own one. [8:52] That number has fallen through the floor. [8:54] Look at this. [8:55] Now in 2025, 2026, just 29%, just 29%. [9:00] That is nearly half the level, nearly half the level, dropped by nearly half in just [9:05] under a decade's time. [9:07] No wonder young people are feeling so much frustration. [9:10] Now, of course, if you're building out that home, right, in terms of what young people want, [9:14] what Americans want in order to fulfill the American dream, well, it's not just buying [9:18] a home. [9:19] It's a good job. [9:20] You go leave the home, you have a good job. [9:23] But young people at this point don't believe it's a good time to actually find a job. [9:27] Take a look here. [9:28] Age 15 to 34 say it's a good time to find a job. [9:31] Now that percentage, that percentage is just 43%, less than half. [9:37] Less than half of young people say it's a good time to find a job. [9:40] And look at this trend line. [9:41] This trend line is going completely in the wrong direction. [9:45] Four years ago, it was 75%. [9:47] Look at that. [9:48] That's a drop of over 30 points in just four years' time. [9:51] In 2019, back when Donald Trump was at the end of his first term in office, it was 77%. [9:58] That's a drop of, what is that? [10:00] That's a drop of 34 percentage points from where Donald Trump was in term number one, [10:06] in terms of young folks saying it's a good time to find a job. [10:10] And young men in particular, those who power Donald Trump to victory, well, they are feeling [10:14] a lot of frustration with the economy. [10:17] Not a big surprise when they say it's hard to find a job and say, in fact, their aim to [10:21] buy a home has fallen below 50%. [10:24] Look at this. [10:25] Young men on the economy, those that power Trump to victory. [10:27] Men under 30 on economic conditions. [10:29] Before Trump came into office, this is 2024 and early 2025, before Trump was inaugurated [10:34] for a second term, 66% of them said it was, in fact, the economic conditions were poor. [10:39] They were hoping that Trump would solve it. [10:42] But they view the economic conditions even worse today than just before when Trump got [10:47] into office. [10:48] Look at this. [10:49] 79%. [10:50] 79% this year say that, in fact, economic conditions. [10:53] Young men, those under the age of 30, say that economic conditions are poor. [10:58] The good percentage? [10:59] It was 34%. [11:00] It was just one in three. [11:01] But now it's just one in five, 21% say economic conditions are good. [11:08] And you know who they're taking their frustrations out on? [11:11] Well, it's the man 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. [11:14] That's who. [11:15] Because look at how they view Donald Trump and the economy. [11:17] Men under 30. [11:18] These again are the voters who powered Trump to victory back in 2024. [11:23] In the fall of 2024 versus Kamala Harris, Trump was more trusted on the economy than Harris [11:28] by, get this, a seven-point margin. [11:31] Holy Toledo. [11:32] Look at that percentage now. [11:33] Look at how young men have turned. [11:35] The net approval among young men for Donald Trump and the economy, minus 59 points. [11:41] I'm laughing because the turn is so absurd. [11:44] This is a turnaround of, what is this, do the math with me right here, of 66 points. [11:49] 66 points in less than two years time, just a year and a half in terms of veiling towards [11:54] Trump and the economy among young men. [11:57] And when you put it together, right, the economy being the number one issue, how do they feel [12:01] about Donald Trump overall? [12:03] Well, it's a different world. [12:05] And I loved, loved that sitcom back in the 1980s and into the early 1990s. [12:11] Great theme song. [12:12] Men under 30 on Trump. [12:13] Look at this. [12:14] In the 2024 election, Donald Trump won that vote by one point. [12:18] He was the first Republican nominee to win young men this entire century. [12:24] But now, it's a different tune. [12:26] His net approval rating among young men, look at this, minus 55 points, minus 55 points. [12:36] That's a switcheroo of what this? [12:38] That's 56 points, 56 points in just a year and a half. [12:42] And you know, I'm a little thirsty here. [12:44] Ooh. [12:45] Today's soft drink of the day is Coca-Cola Cherry Float. [12:49] Let's take a drink. [12:52] Ah. [12:53] That's nice. [12:54] I do enjoy a good Coca-Cola Cherry Float. [12:56] Now, of course, it's not just the economy. [13:00] Not just the economy that is changing. [13:02] It's changing Donald Trump or the views of young people on Donald Trump. [13:06] Of course, it's foreign policy because, remember, Trump said, oh, I'll keep us out of foreign [13:10] wars. [13:11] And what's been going on the last few months? [13:12] Well, the war in Iran. [13:13] And young men don't like it one iota because, just take a look, Trump and foreign policy. [13:18] Okay. [13:19] Men under 30 on Trump and foreign policy. [13:21] Back in the fall of 2024, look at this. [13:24] Young men trusted Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by nine points. [13:28] Today, look at his net approval among them. [13:30] Fifty-four points underwater. [13:33] Jacques Cousteau never got that low, my friends. [13:35] Jacques Cousteau never got that low. [13:37] Fifty-four points underwater. [13:38] Again, this is a switcheroo of what? [13:40] Sixty-three points in just a year and a half's worth of time. [13:45] My goodness gracious. [13:47] And, of course, everything that flows from the presidency, Trump is not on the ballot [13:51] this fall, but it all flows downhill to those members of Congress, those Republican [13:56] members of Congress. [13:57] If they think they're going to escape the wrath of young men and the regret that they have [14:01] for voting for Donald Trump, well, they got another thing coming, mister. [14:04] They got another thing coming. [14:06] Because just take a look at young men and the midterms. [14:08] Okay. [14:09] Men under 30 on the midterm elections, you know, you go back to November of 2024, Democrats [14:14] did slightly better than Kamala Harris, but not really. [14:17] They won it by three points, which is a historically very small portion for young men, Democrats winning [14:23] them. [14:24] Okay? [14:25] Look now, though. [14:26] Look in the average polling right now, the 2026 race for Congress. [14:29] Well, hello. [14:32] Democrats are now favored by 28 points. [14:35] Now favored by 28 points when it comes to the race for Congress. [14:39] Young men overwhelmingly favoring Democrats. [14:42] That is a 25-point switcheroo. [14:45] A 25-point switcheroo. [14:47] And again, just a year and a half's worth of time. [14:52] Now we're talking about 2026 right here, right? [14:55] But what about 2028? [14:58] Plus, we're going to have presidential primaries starting in the beginning of 2028. [15:03] Those folks are going to start running very quickly once the midterm elections wrap up. [15:08] Well, the two Republican frontrunners take a look at the net approval among men under 30 2028 GOP contenders. [15:16] J.D. Vance, 48 points under water, 48 points under water. [15:21] Of course, he being the secretary, excuse me, being the vice president. [15:25] Sometimes all these cabinet officials get stuck in my head. [15:27] The vice president, the whole member of the cabinet, 48 points under water. [15:30] Look at the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. [15:32] He's doing a little bit better, but not really much better. [15:36] He is 39 points under water. [15:38] So the deficit that Trump is facing now among young men, that is transferring over to the cabinet members as well. [15:46] And that is so important. [15:48] That is so important because these two men on your screen are the two leading candidates for the Republican Party. [15:54] And I bet that they, dare I say to borrow a word from earlier, are feeling some regret for how younger men are now feeling regret for Donald Trump. [16:04] So the bottom line is this, young men, historic performance for Trump back in 2024, but now they have historically shifted well away from Donald Trump and the potential 2028 nominees, as well as those Republicans running for Congress in 2026 later this year. [16:21] This is one of the biggest changes I have ever seen. [16:25] I was so concerned I somehow mistyped something. [16:27] That's how bad this number is. [16:28] And today we are going to count down the top six ways in which Trump is losing the key core group of independents, because independent voters are who elect our presidents of the United States. [16:40] And we can see that Donald John Trump is in a whole heck of a lot of trouble with independents, because take a look here, independent support for Trump. [16:48] Back during the 2024 election, look at this. [16:50] He won by one, two points among independents over Kamala Harris. [16:55] And that basically matched, basically matched his nationwide margin. [16:59] But down he goes, my goodness gracious, he looks like Greg Louganis now. [17:03] He's so far underwater with independents. [17:05] In the average poll, get this, he's 43 points underwater with independents. [17:12] That is a movement, my dear friends, of 45 points in the wrong direction with independent voters. [17:20] And it's not just that Trump has lost so much ground with independent voters. [17:24] Why don't we take a look and put this into some historical perspective, because these numbers are even more frightening for the president of the United States. [17:32] Why don't we just look at this, the worst net approval ratings with independents at this point in term two of a presidency. [17:38] Guess who has the worst, the worst net approval rating? [17:42] It's the current president, Donald John Trump. [17:44] We're talking about the fact that he's 43 points underwater. [17:46] That is actually worse. [17:48] That is actually worse than Richard Nixon was during the height of the Watergate scandal back in 1974. [17:56] Nixon was just 36 points underwater. [17:58] Trump easily beating that, but in the wrong way. [18:01] Trump is also beating George W. Bush, who was 35 points underwater. [18:05] Of course, he was caught up in the Iraq war at this particular point in his presidency. [18:11] Very interesting to note, of course, Trump right now involved with the Iran war, Bush involved with the Iraq war. [18:17] In neither case is it working out well for those two presidents. [18:20] But here's the thing. [18:21] What is the main thing that is driving this? [18:25] And of course, it's the economy. [18:27] But more than that, it's the cost of living. [18:29] It's inflation. [18:30] It was the thing that got Donald Trump elected to the White House. [18:34] But you can just see it here. [18:36] This is one of the biggest changes I have ever seen. [18:39] My eyes literally, they're popping out. [18:41] I don't know if they're popping out, if it's coming across to you on the other side of the screen. [18:45] But they are literally popping out because you rarely see changes like this. [18:48] Look at this. [18:49] Independence on Trump and inflation. [18:51] When you went back to the 2024 election, Trump beat Kamala Harris on inflation. [18:55] He was more trusted on inflation by, get this, nine points. [18:59] Look at this switcheroo. [19:00] Trump's net approval. [19:01] I thought, honestly, I went through the spreadsheets because I was so concerned I somehow mistyped [19:06] something. [19:07] That's how bad this number is. [19:08] He is 70 points, 70 points underwater on inflation right now when it comes to his net approval rating. [19:15] That is a 79 point shift in, what is that, a year and a half's worth of time since the [19:23] 2024 election? [19:25] My goodness gracious. [19:28] You rarely ever see numbers this bad with independence. [19:31] But that's exactly where the president is on inflation. [19:34] And it is so bad that when I think of inflation, right, and I think of inflation seeking presidencies, [19:39] I think of two presidents. [19:40] I think of Joe Biden. [19:41] But really, I think of James Earl Carter, Jimmy Carter on inflation. [19:46] And look at how Trump compares to where Carter was just before, of course, he got crushed [19:50] by Ronald Reagan back in the 1980 election. [19:54] Look at this. [19:55] Net approval rating on inflation among independents. [19:57] You got Trump here, right? [19:58] 70 points underwater. [19:59] Jimmy Carter was only 55 points underwater. [20:02] And of course, Carter got absolutely annihilated in that election to Ronald Reagan back in 1980, [20:09] winning just a few states and getting crushed in the popular vote by about 10 points. [20:13] And yet Donald Trump is, get this, 15 points worse on inflation among independents than Jimmy [20:20] Carter was back in 1980. [20:23] Now of course, one of the things that is driving up inflation at this particular point is the [20:28] Iran war. [20:29] Foreign policy. [20:30] And this is another area. [20:32] It's the other key area in which Trump has absolutely blown the support of the independent [20:37] electorate that got him elected back in 2024. [20:40] Because just take a look at this particular case. [20:43] Look at this. [20:44] Independence on Trump and foreign policy. [20:46] Back in the 2024 election, look at this. [20:49] Voters trusted him. [20:50] Independent voters trusted him more on foreign policy by 14 points over Kamala Harris, right? [20:56] He of course, at that particular point, played up the idea. [20:59] You know, no more foreign wars, et cetera. [21:01] Obviously, that didn't really hold with Iran, right? [21:03] And look at how the voters have punished him. [21:05] His net approval rating now, 47 points under war. [21:10] That's an over 60-point switcheroo, again, in the wrong direction. [21:16] He said, in voters' minds, they were told one thing. [21:19] And then Donald Trump went around and did something completely different. [21:22] And now they've absolutely taken their punishment out on them. [21:25] Again, we're talking about a 61-point switcheroo. [21:29] Trump, he's like Jacques Cousteau at this point. [21:32] That is how far underwater he is. [21:35] Now, again, I am very interested in putting these numbers in historical perspective because [21:39] I think it's so important to understand the depths of which Trump is underwater. [21:44] So take a look at Trump compared to other presidents in this century when it comes to, at this point, [21:50] in term number two, their net approval rating on foreign policy among independents. [21:54] You see Trump, 47 points underwater. [21:56] That's the worst. [21:58] It's the worst. [21:58] Barack Obama was 25 points underwater. [22:02] That's not particularly good. [22:03] But it's a whole heck of a lot better than being 47 points underwater. [22:06] And then, of course, I mentioned earlier on, George W. Bush, we were involved in the Iraq War back then. [22:11] But he was only 43 points underwater. [22:13] I mean, we're just talking again about history making numbers, but not in the way that, in fact, [22:20] you want to be making history. [22:22] Thank you, my dear friend Nick Tuttle. [22:23] I'm a little thirsty. [22:24] Hold on one second. [22:27] Ah, now that's some good stuff. [22:28] I always love a good diet soda, although I'm not quite sure I'd call them diet versus zero sugar. [22:32] Either way, here's the whole thing, though. [22:36] It's not just about Donald Trump, right? [22:38] It's about the future as well. [22:39] So we've talked about the six key elements, right? [22:41] We've spoken about Trump with independence compared to the past, putting it in perspective, [22:46] then inflation compared to the past, putting it in perspective, and then foreign policy, [22:50] and then, of course, putting it into some historical perspective compared to other presidents. [22:55] And those are the six key ways, those six key nuggets. [22:58] But now it's on to the bonus section, the bonus section of our program looking towards [23:02] the future. [23:03] Because I think it's just so important to note that what's going on with Trump in the White [23:07] House could and probably will have major ramifications come November and the midterm elections. [23:13] Choice for the U.S. House among independents. [23:15] In the 2024 election, Republicans won independents, get this, for the House of Representatives, [23:20] by one, two, three points. [23:22] Very much matching how they did nationally. [23:24] But look now. [23:25] Look now. [23:26] Democrats are ahead by 16 points. [23:28] That's a switcheroo of nearly 20 points. [23:31] That's a switcheroo, if I'm doing my math correctly, of 19 points. [23:35] Democrats have this lead right now. [23:37] That's why they are leading overall in the generic ballot. [23:39] But it is not just about 2026 and the Democrats' drive to take back the House of Representatives. [23:44] It's about 2028 as well. [23:46] And take a look here. [23:48] Two key likely, well, you know, one of these guys is probably running for president, right, [23:53] if not both of them. [23:54] That's what we could say. [23:55] But take a look at their net approval among independents. [23:57] GOP contenders for 2028. [23:59] J.D. [24:00] Vance, the vice president of the United States. [24:01] Look at this. [24:02] 44 points underwater, according to Fox News. [24:05] That's absolutely atrocious. [24:07] How about Marco Rubio, the secretary of state? [24:09] He's doing a little bit better, but not much. [24:11] He's 36 points underwater. [24:14] The bottom line is this. [24:15] If a rising tide lifts all boats, then a sinking boat pulls everybody down with him. [24:20] And that's exactly what's happening with Marco Rubio, exactly what's happening with J.D. [24:24] Vance. [24:25] So the bottom line is this. [24:26] We look at Trump. [24:27] He's struggling with independents to a historic degree. [24:30] And it could have major ramifications come November. [24:32] And it could definitely have major ramifications come 2028. [24:36] Hey there, I'm Harry Entham, and today we're counting down the top eight groups that are [24:40] still holding strong for Trump's GOP, and we're going to do so using pure data, baby. [24:45] And at the end, we're going to have a little bit of bonus for you. [24:48] But without further ado, let's start off with group number eight. [24:50] We are talking about white evangelicals. [24:52] Of course, they are a very important part of the GOP coalition. [24:56] And take a look at their choice for the election back in October of 2024 when it was [25:00] Harris versus Trump. [25:01] Trump is getting 71% of their vote according to a Fox News poll back in October of 2024. [25:07] And look at where we are now. [25:08] We're talking about the 2026 race for Congress. [25:11] Republicans getting a very similar share. [25:13] We're talking about 69% of the vote among white evangelicals. [25:16] So very similar to what we saw back in 2024. [25:20] But it doesn't just end there, baby. [25:23] What we're talking about as well, when we're talking about the core GOP groups, how about [25:26] those who self-identify as Republicans, baby? [25:29] Look at this. [25:30] This. [25:31] This is support. [25:32] This is what we're talking about. [25:34] We're talking about 92%. [25:37] That is the share of the vote that House Republicans are getting right now among GOP voters. [25:42] That's basically the same, baby. [25:44] That's basically the same as Trump was getting back in October of 2024 when he was getting [25:48] 94%. [25:50] This is well within the margin of error. [25:52] The bottom line is this. [25:53] For all that talk, all that talk about Republicans abandoning Trump and abandoning the GOP, it simply [26:00] put does not hold when you match up the GOP's running for the House against the Democrats [26:06] running for the House of Representatives. [26:08] Now, another group that I just think is so interesting, because this is a group that is actually going [26:13] Democratic, but what we saw was Democrats did very poorly, very poorly, at least historically [26:18] speaking, among black voters back in 2024. [26:21] Kamala Harris was leading amongst them in October of 2024 by 59 points. [26:26] And guess what? [26:28] Although Democrats are winning them, but it's only by a slightly wider margin, only a slightly [26:32] wider margin, 62 points compared to Kamala Harris back in October of 2024. [26:38] So what we're essentially seeing is Democrats did historically poorly for the worst in a generation [26:43] among black voters back in 2024. [26:45] And it does not seem like they're recovering all that much ground. [26:49] So this is the sixth group that we're looking at. [26:51] What about group number five? [26:52] I feel like Casey Casey and coming in at number five. [26:56] What are we talking about? [26:57] How about white women? [26:58] This is a very key group. [27:01] This is a swing vote. [27:02] This is a swing vote. [27:04] And take a look at the choice for the election among white women. [27:06] In October of 2024, Trump was getting 51 percent of that vote. [27:11] Look at this. [27:12] White women basically are staying the same. [27:14] There hasn't been much of a shift at this point in terms of the vote for Congress. [27:18] Look at this. [27:19] House Republicans getting 49 percent of that vote. [27:21] Again, this is well within the margin of error. [27:25] Very little movement. [27:26] When you can count it on one hand, you know it's little movement. [27:29] One, two, maybe the slightest bit towards the Dems. [27:32] But Republicans still very much in the game with white women who, of course, are such [27:36] an important part of the electorate. [27:38] So this is group number five. [27:40] What about group number four? [27:41] All right. [27:42] How about voters making above $50,000 income? [27:46] This is a very important group in the electorate. [27:48] This is the majority of voters in the electorate. [27:51] Take a look here. [27:52] You thought two points was a lot of movement? [27:55] How about one point in terms of movement? [27:57] Back in October of 2024, Donald Trump was getting 51 percent of that vote. [28:01] Today, look at this. [28:03] House Republicans, basically the same. [28:06] Basically the same. [28:07] We're talking about 50 percent. [28:08] And of course, income and class has become such a big dividing line in our politics these [28:14] days. [28:15] And when you see Republicans holding strong with this group, those making above $50,000 [28:19] in income, and they, of course, make up the vast majority of voters, this is why Republicans [28:24] are still very much in the game when it comes to the congressional elections come 2026. [28:29] Now, this is group number five. [28:32] What about group number four? [28:34] Well, when we're talking about the majority of voters, you know, for all of the talk, oftentimes [28:38] we break it down. [28:39] We look at black voters. [28:40] We look at Hispanic voters. [28:41] But white voters still make up the clear majority of voters in the electorate. [28:46] And what we see here is Republicans are winning among white voters. [28:49] They're winning among white voters. [28:51] They're winning by 11 points when it comes to the 2026 race for Congress. [28:54] Now, Trump won them by 15 or was leading amongst them by 15 back in 2024. [29:00] But 11, 15, this is the type of movement that is really sort of emblematic of what we're [29:06] seeing. [29:07] Maybe Democrats doing slightly better, slightly better. [29:10] But overall, Republicans are more than holding their own when it comes to a group that makes [29:15] it the clear majority of voters. [29:18] Okay. [29:19] This is group number three. [29:20] Well, let's enter into group number two. [29:23] Group number two. [29:24] This is so important. [29:25] What about age? [29:26] What about age? [29:28] Older voters. [29:29] You know, all the time we talk, oh, the youth, ooh, la, la, la, la, la. [29:32] We all care about what's new and fresh. [29:35] But what's been there for a while is a stable voting bloc. [29:39] Older voters are what ultimately or almost ultimately always determine elections. [29:44] So take a look at those among age 45 and older. [29:47] In November of 2024, what do we see? [29:50] We saw Trump winning that vote by six points. [29:53] Look at where we are now. [29:55] Republicans are still winning this huge chunk of voters. [29:58] And of course, in midterm elections, older voters actually make up an even larger percentage [30:03] of the electorate than they do in presidential elections. [30:06] And what we see here is Republicans ahead by three points. [30:11] Again, this is well within any margin of error. [30:15] Republicans holding strong, holding their own amongst a group of voters that will make [30:19] up the clear majority of voters come November. [30:24] But without further ado, we've counted down eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two. [30:31] And coming in at number one, what about seniors? [30:35] Choice among seniors. [30:35] Look at this. [30:36] In October of 2024, Donald Trump is getting 49% of the senior vote. [30:40] That is age 65 and older. [30:43] What are we talking about now? [30:44] What we're talking about, get this. [30:47] You thought one point was a lot of movement. [30:49] You thought two points was a lot of movement. [30:51] Of course, I'm just kidding. [30:52] It's very little movement. [30:53] Zero points. [30:54] That's no movement at all, baby. [30:56] That's no movement at all. [30:57] What we're seeing right here is House Republicans holding their own amongst a very key group in [31:03] the electorate who, of course, will make up an even larger share come this November than [31:09] they did two Novembers ago back in 2024. [31:12] Now this is my countdown from eight to one. [31:15] But what about the bonus? [31:17] I was promised you a bonus. [31:20] We're going to talk bonus, baby. [31:21] We're going to talk bonus. [31:23] You know, immigration, immigration. [31:25] Of course, such an important part of the Donald Trump message back in 2024, 2020, 2016. [31:32] The GOP lead on immigration for all of the actions that have occurred over the last year [31:37] and change of the Trump administration. [31:40] Look at this. [31:41] Back in February of 2023, before Trump got into office, Republicans held a 10-point lead on [31:45] which party was more trusted in immigration. [31:47] Last year in July, it was six points. [31:49] Now, get this. [31:51] It's eight points. [31:52] It's eight points, according to Fox News. [31:54] There's simply been no real movement here. [31:57] Republicans are holding on on a key issue for them. [32:01] And therefore, it should not be much of a surprise that Donald Trump is very much holding [32:05] on when it comes to border security. [32:08] Look at this. [32:09] Trump's approval rating on border security, approve of Trump on border security. [32:13] You know, a little bit over a year ago, he was at 56 percent. [32:17] Look at where he is now. [32:18] He's at 53 percent. [32:19] Still the clear majority of Americans approve of the job that Donald Trump is doing when [32:25] it comes to border security. [32:28] So we've ranked the list. [32:29] We've gone one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. [32:32] But in the reverse order, we've given you two little bonus things going on here. [32:36] So I think the real question here is, what do you want to hear from me next? [32:40] Leave a comment in the comments section and we'll keep our eye on all of these as we head [32:44] into the 2026 midterm elections.