How Trump’s promise to ‘wipe out’ Iran could backfire on US power — The Take

[0:00] Today. [0:01] Going beyond Trump's threat to wipe out a whole civilization. [0:05] We're seeing a massive rhetorical escalation. [0:09] The destruction of these norms around the use of force will backfire on the U.S. [0:13] because the U.S. itself will be in a scenario in which it will need those norms. [0:18] As Iran flexits its muscle over the global economy, [0:21] what do Trump's threats reveal about the state of U.S. power? [0:26] I'm Oliga Bilal, and this is The Take. [0:34] Hey, everyone. [0:35] Al Jazeera just became the number one media network globally on digital platforms. [0:41] This is all thanks to people like you. [0:44] So today would be a really great day to subscribe and recommend The Take to someone you know. [0:49] We ask because we want more people to get their daily news podcasts from Al Jazeera, [0:54] for information about the war shaping our world, and so much more. [0:59] Thank you. [1:03] I spoke to my guest, Shrita Parsi, on Tuesday around noon Eastern time. [1:07] But since then, there have been major developments. [1:11] Donald Trump has just announced he will suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. [1:18] Donald Trump putting out that truth social post with about 90 minutes to go until his self-imposed deadline for Iran to make that deal before he would unleash what he called hell and target all of that country's civilian infrastructure. [1:32] Donald Trump is apparently quoted to have said that this will be a double-sided ceasefire. [1:38] Now, this is following a request that was made by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shabar Sharif to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period as a goodwill gesture. [1:49] Iran's Supreme National Security Council says it has accepted President Trump's offer of a two-week ceasefire. [1:56] To understand this moment, you have to understand how it all unfolded. [2:02] Here's my conversation with Shrita, who breaks it down. [2:05] My name is Shrita Parsi. [2:09] I am the Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute, a think tank in Washington that promotes ideas that move U.S. foreign policy away from endless war and towards rigorous diplomacy. [2:20] Well, Shrita, welcome to The Take. [2:22] Thank you so much for having me. [2:24] It's a pleasure to have you. [2:25] I wish the circumstances were different. [2:27] What you do clearly is very needed in the world right now. [2:30] And that's because, hours before we sat down for this interview, the leader of the United States of America threatened war crimes on a massive scale. [2:41] You have seen the post. [2:43] A whole civilization will die tonight unless an agreement is reached to end the war. [2:48] That's the warning from U.S. President Donald Trump to Iran. [2:52] He posted that ahead of his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or make a deal. [2:59] And by the time that many of our viewers see this interview, that deadline will have passed. [3:04] So, are you holding your breath? [3:07] I mean, obviously this is extremely worrisome. [3:10] He is using genocidal language. [3:12] This is a war crime. [3:14] This is not only a crime under international law, but also under U.S. law. [3:18] And the manner in which he, as well as the Israelis, have normalized this type of a language, normalized conduct that is deliberately breaking the norms around the use of force that carefully have been built up since World War II in order to avoid the massive losses of life that warfare prior to 1945 caused for civilian populations is extremely worrisome in the larger scheme of things. [3:45] But when it comes to the immediate scenario, of course, it is absolutely terrifying, the idea that he would use nuclear weapons. [3:52] Now, the White House is pushing back and saying that's not what he meant. [3:55] It's not clear at this point what credibility we should assert to his tweets or to the clarification coming from the White House. [4:04] Either way, we're seeing a massive rhetorical escalation that, even if it falls short of using nuclear weapons, may nevertheless lead to a massive military escalation in the region. [4:15] And that would be highly problematic and devastating nevertheless for several different perspectives, a massive loss of life. [4:23] But also he actually makes it much more difficult to actually end this war and find some sort of an off ramp. [4:28] At this point, before he's gone in with ground troops, before he's tried to take some islands, before he's gone after Iran's oil infrastructure. [4:37] And as a result, the Ivanias have not targeted on a large scale oil infrastructure in the region, not managed to kill a lot of American soldiers because they're not within their reach. [4:46] At this stage, he still has an off ramp and he can still form a narrative that says that this was a victory, a narrative that probably will not be convincing to anyone outside of his base. [4:59] But convincing his base that this was a victory is very important to him, understandably. [5:04] But once he goes past this, and he crosses the Rubicon, and you have a lot of American deaths as a result of this escalation, it will be much more difficult for him to be able to take an exit ramp, to be able to form a narrative of victory. [5:18] And it will make him more likely, frankly, that he will continue to double down rather than get out of this war. [5:25] Trita, I have to take a pause because we are talking about the threat of nuclear war here. [5:31] Well, I think we have to keep in mind that there's a process that had preceded all of this. [5:37] We have seen that part of what Trump has done deliberately over the course of the last nine or so years has been to try to break down a lot of the norms that existed in the United States as well as internationally. [5:50] Some of his base have very much welcomed him breaking some of these norms, because not all of these norms have been of the same nature. [5:59] But there is a fatigue at this point, in which he has done this to such an extent that people just don't have the energy of reacting as strongly as they otherwise would have, [6:09] had it not been preceded by nine or so years of a continuous systematic effort to be able to break down a lot of norms of conduct. [6:18] On top of that, you have also now a deliberate effort for the last two and a half years by the Israelis in Gaza, in which they have essentially gone to war with international law itself, [6:30] have deliberately tried to destroy the norms around the use of force. [6:35] So in life, we have seen over the course of two years how they have managed to break down these norms around the use of force, normalize this type of a conduct. [6:46] And it's terrifying because we will be moving towards a world that will be far more dangerous than what we have been living in before, even though that world was far from perfect, of course. [6:57] But because of this having been a systematic process, I think we're in a state in which there is a fatigue and almost a helplessness in many quarters when it comes to how the goalposts are so dramatically being moved. [7:12] Hmm. You know, Iran has responded to some of these earlier threats from Trump in a statement the IRGC said, [7:21] We will do to the infrastructure of America and its partners what will deprive them and their allies of the region's oil and gas for many years if the U.S. crosses red lines. [7:31] What does this mean for diplomacy? Is it completely dead here? [7:35] Do you think, as you wrote on X earlier today, that this might be the bluster before a significant retreat when it comes to Trump's part? What do you think happens? [7:47] It's very difficult to know exactly what is going on. [7:51] But, you know, we can have different type of interpretations for different type of scenarios. [7:56] I don't believe that diplomacy is dead quite yet. In fact, I don't think diplomacy has really genuinely been pursued. [8:02] And part of the reason why Trump, who I think actually right now wants diplomacy, is having a difficulty pursuing it is because he himself has killed his own diplomatic credibility by the conduct he has pursued in the last two years. [8:17] He has bombed Iran in the middle of negotiations. So given that track record, it shouldn't be surprising that the Iranians have resisted any movement towards direct negotiations with the United States at a time when the U.S. itself needs it. [8:32] Similarly, I have to say, the destruction of these norms around the use of force will backfire on the U.S. because the U.S. itself will be in a scenario in which it will need those norms. [8:42] The U.S. almost was in that scenario just two days ago with an American pilot having been shot down in Iran. [8:49] Imagine if the Iranians had managed to take him prisoner of war. There are plenty of rules how you have to treat prisoners of war. [8:56] But would the Iranians honor those rules if the United States simultaneously is destroying all norms and all rules of warfare? [9:02] So, you know, it's not far-fetched that this will come and backfire on the U.S. It could happen any day at this point. [9:09] But I think there is still an off-ramp that can be taken, but it requires serious diplomacy. [9:13] Serious diplomacy requires patience. Patience is not the forte of President Trump. [9:20] We'll have more with Trita after the break. [9:24] Well, Trita, I want to shift gears just a little bit and talk about what could be some seismic activity happening here. [9:33] Because so much of this right now, whether or not there's going to be a deal, it centers on the Strait of Hormuz. [9:40] Now, Iran's geography was always there. [9:43] It is a muscle it always had, and it is flexing it now more so than we've ever seen. [9:49] Could this be catapulting Iran from a middle regional power to a major world power? [9:56] I find that unlikely. [9:59] I think the Iranians may very well end up in control of the Straits in the sense that they will charge transit fees [10:06] and probably do so in combination with the Omanis, that this will be a new geopolitical feature. [10:12] That will definitely in many ways be a win for the Iranians. [10:15] But does it put them in a position of being a major power? [10:21] I think that's doubtful. [10:23] Iran will have suffered tremendous losses, its infrastructure being degraded, damages that probably amount to a trillion dollars. [10:31] Satellite images show evidence of the damage US and Israeli attacks have done to Iran's critical infrastructure. [10:38] Multiple ports have come under attack, including Boucher. [10:42] The port is vital to Iran's economy as it handles more than three million tons of cargo each year. [10:48] And even before this war, Iran had huge difficulties attracting investments in Iran because of US sanctions. [10:55] Now it's going to be an even greater need, far greater need of those investments because of the damage that the war has done. [11:02] And unless the war ends in such a way that it can get those investments coming in, that some sanctions are lifted, etc. [11:09] It is going to be in a state of tremendous challenges and difficulties. [11:14] Now, it has managed to prove that its deterrence through its missiles, drones and asymmetric warfare is quite effective. [11:21] It has probably managed to remove the threat of US force or remove the potency of the threat of American force in any future negotiations between the US and Iran. [11:34] But that is in and of itself not enough to be able to be a great power. [11:39] It requires a really strong economy. [11:42] And it's very doubtful that the Iranians can have a strong economy as long as these sanctions continue to suffocate the Iranian business industry and civilian industries and the economy as a whole. [11:55] Well, then, on the other hand, we have the United States, one of the US's biggest assets that cements its world dominance is the might of its currency, the dollar. [12:07] It's typically seen as a safe investment in turbulent times. [12:11] And this all has to do with something called the petrodollar, which is declining. [12:15] So can you explain what that is and whether or not you think that matters when it comes to this? [12:20] It matters because, you know, it is important for the United States that oil is sold in the US dollars, that those transactions are denominated in the US dollars, [12:31] that it is a critical thing that boosts the strength of the US dollar as it becomes the currency that is a safe haven in a global economy in which a lot of these currencies have actually very weak safety standards. [12:45] So for that, if the US, as part of this deal, offers to lift sanctions on Iran's oil sales, allow Iranian oil to come back onto the international market, lift the bank transaction sanctions that have disabled the Iranians from being able to use the international banking system. [13:05] In return, the Iranians would agree to make sure that at least a portion, perhaps a majority of their sales are in the US dollars. [13:12] That actually would be a partial win for the United States. [13:15] It would be a win in terms of pushing down oil prices. [13:19] It would be a win in the sense that it would strengthen the dollar. [13:22] Alternatively, the Iranians are just going to continue to sell oil on the black market outside of sanctions through the Chinese currency, [13:31] which is then strengthening the currency of America's main geopolitical right. [13:36] But this requires flexibility, creativity, and a willingness to say no to some of the lobbies in Washington [13:43] and the pressures from the Israeli government that is constantly pushing for the United States to just isolate and weaken Iran all the time, [13:50] which may be in the interest of the Israelis, but increasingly, it's clear, it's not in the interest of the United States. [13:56] You know, we started this talking about the threat from Donald Trump. [14:01] You reposted on X earlier a tweet from Joe Kent, a former director of the National Counterterrorism Center. [14:09] And he writes that Trump believes he is threatening Iran with destruction, but it is America that now stands in danger. [14:16] Do you see that happening here? [14:19] Is it the United States that's actually being threatened with this threat that Trump has just made? [14:23] Even short of that threat, I mean, of course, if the United States ends up using a nuclear weapon in a war of choice, [14:30] this is not World War II in which the U.S. was attacked by Japan at Pearl Harbor and then entered into that war with the Japanese, [14:37] and then eventually used nuclear weapons to end the war. [14:40] This is not that scenario. [14:41] This is a war of choice. [14:42] There was no reason for Trump to do this. [14:44] There was no imminent threat. [14:45] And on top of that, to then use nuclear weapons will make the United States a pariah perhaps for decades to come. [14:53] And the warning of former officials such as Kent should really be taken seriously because, again, [14:59] we're in that phase in which there seems to be a desire to break all kinds of taboos, [15:03] but a lot of these taboos are there for a reason. [15:05] It's a good thing that we have a taboo on the use and the use of threatening nuclear weapons. [15:12] We should not change that. [15:13] It will be to the detriment of the United States. [15:16] It will pave the way for other powers that do have nuclear weapons to use. [15:19] It will also pave the way for a lot of countries that have the option of building nuclear weapons, [15:24] have chosen not to do so, to be incentivized to go for nuclear weapons. [15:28] Iran is one of those states who in the past had chosen to go along with a deal that prevented them from having nuclear weapons. [15:35] And it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the thinking of Iran dramatically change on this issue. [15:40] But even short of that, I think what this war will do is similar to what the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War did. [15:49] It's a reminder of the significant limitations of military power. [15:54] And that the United States, every time it enters these wars of choice in the Middle East, [15:58] ultimately undermines its own strength and brings about the transition to a multipolar world much faster than it otherwise would have been. [16:07] This is part of the reason why so many of the realists and restrainers in the United States have argued against going into more wars in the Middle East, [16:14] particularly with Iran, precisely because at the end of the day, the United States itself ends up weakening itself more than anything else. [16:22] Trita, you have been all over, news organizations, online, on TV, explaining this, analyzing this, breaking down this historic moment that we find ourselves in. [16:35] And I wonder, what is the price for you as an Iranian in the West, sharing your expertise? Does it take a toll? [16:44] Obviously, it does. I love the United States. I love Iran as a country, not the government. [16:51] Seeing these two countries that should be friends, that should have fantastic relations with each other, go in a direction that destroys both of them, [16:59] that inflicts so much harm on ordinary people that are completely innocent in these scenarios, [17:04] that have nothing to do with these geopolitical battles, it's absolutely devastating. [17:09] And, you know, I spent the better part of my professional life in the United States trying to prevent this from happening in the first place. [17:17] So it's a point of utter shame that I'm now in this scenario and seeing that the effort I had made and many others have made ultimately failed. [17:25] Despite the fact that we had massive success in getting the JCPOA, nevertheless, those who wanted war managed to convince Trump to leave that agreement, managed to convince Trump to bomb Iran last summer, managed to convince Trump to go into this disastrous war. [17:40] And now, unfortunately, we are vindicated because what we warned about of how bad this war would be, how dangerous it would be, how much it would weaken the U.S., [17:48] how much it would set back the case and struggle for democracy in Iran, all of it has not only turned out to be accurate, [17:55] but it would turn out to be even worse than what many of us had feared it would be. [17:59] So it's devastating on all fronts to see this happening right now. [18:02] Trita Parsi, we are devastated with you. Thank you so much for sharing your analysis with us. I appreciate it. [18:09] Thank you so much for having me.