How Hungary’s vote to oust Viktor Orbán could have global implications

[0:00] The incoming prime minister of Hungary struck a hopeful tone today and for the first time since [0:05] 2010 it was not Viktor Orban. Peter Magyar has called for a swift transition of power [0:11] and as Stephanie Sy tells us he began to chart an ambitious course to reverse central pillars [0:17] of Orban's rule. In Hungary today a Budapest street musician sounds notes of jubilance and hope. [0:27] He's one of the millions of Hungarians celebrating the weekend's election defeat of Viktor Orban [0:34] and his 16-year grip on power in this parliamentary republic. With nearly 80 percent voter participation [0:41] 5.9 million Hungarians delivered a clear verdict. Overwhelmingly choosing the opposition party TISA [0:51] led by Peter Magyar. Tens of thousands celebrated the results on the torch-lit streets of Budapest [0:58] last night. The incoming prime minister promises to lead Hungary back to its European alliances. [1:05] Yesterday the Hungarian people made many decisions, perhaps one of the most important being that [1:12] Hungary's place in Europe was, is and will be a country that is a member of the two most important [1:18] and largest alliance systems, the European Union and NATO. [1:22] A former Orban loyalist, he ran on an anti-corruption platform. [1:28] Hungary is in trouble in every respect. It's been plundered, looted, betrayed, saddled with debt and [1:36] ruined. It's been turned into the poorest and most corrupt country in the European Union. [1:41] A systemic change is needed, since ours has been effectively controlled by an organized criminal group. [1:47] Prime Minister Orban's hard-line nationalist government eroded democratic norms and institutions, [1:55] helping him stay in power. From stifling and co-opting independent media to weakening the [2:03] judiciary's independence, the nation slid toward what the European Union labeled electoral autocracy. [2:11] Magyar's TISA party, which won an astounding two-thirds majority in Parliament over the weekend, [2:19] has vowed to undo Orban's institutional overhaul. [2:23] We will do everything in our power to ensure that this truly marks the beginning of a new era, [2:29] because the Hungarian people did not vote for a simple change of government, [2:32] but for a complete transformation of the system. [2:35] Magyar's win was praised by European leaders, including Germany's Friedrich Mertz. [2:41] As for Hungary and Ukraine, yes, things will be easier now. This shows that our democratic societies [2:50] are evidently much more resilient against Russian propaganda. [2:54] AMNA NAWAZ, Russian President of the United States": Orban was sympathetic to Russian President [2:58] Vladimir Putin and just last month blocked a $103 billion E.U. loan package to Ukraine. At a news [3:07] conference following his win, Magyar described what he would say to President Putin. [3:14] If Vladimir Putin calls, I will pick up the phone. I don't believe that will happen, [3:19] and I won't call him myself. But if we were to speak, I would tell him, please, after four years, [3:24] end the killing and stop that war. [3:26] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov downplayed the impact of Orban's loss. [3:32] We expect to continue our very pragmatic contacts with the new Hungarian leadership. [3:39] We've heard statements about a willingness to conduct a dialogue. I don't think this has anything [3:44] to do with the future of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. [3:46] But Hungary's return to the European fold and further from Russia fueled hopes today. [3:53] I feel very happy. I have been waiting for 16 years this morning to beat Mr. Orban. He had a [4:03] illiberal system, which was against our fundamentals. We are Europeans, and we want to stay in Europe. [4:11] For more now on the Hungarian election and how the results could reverberate around the globe, [4:17] we turn to Kim Lane Shepley, a professor of international affairs at Princeton University, [4:23] who lived and worked extensively in Hungary. Just a few years ago, Magyar was an Orban supporter. [4:30] How did his positions win the people during this campaign, Kim, and lead to such a seismic victory? [4:37] Yeah, well, Peter Magyar sprung out of the Orban machine. He'd spent about 20 years [4:41] being part of the Fidesz party, as a loyalist, as someone who came up to the ranks, [4:46] as someone who benefited a lot from actually his association with Orban. And so there were a couple of [4:52] events that I think caused him to pop out of the woodwork, so to speak, and take on Orban as a [4:57] challenger. One was that his ex-wife Judith Varga had just been fired as prime minister in a scandal [5:06] that was probably Orban's fault, but that he blamed on her, and he kind of came to her defense [5:11] very publicly. But the second thing was that the European Union, having gotten really fed up with [5:16] Orban, had cut most of the funds that the EU gave to Hungary, putting Hungary in a financially [5:23] precarious position. And so everyone could see that the system was cracking under the strain, [5:28] and Peter Magyar jumped out ahead. So he came out of the woodwork. He didn't really have much of a [5:34] prior profile. And he came out as a critic of Orban, and particularly as a critic of Orban's corruption, [5:41] because he knew where all the bodies were buried, and he was a very credible source [5:46] on exactly what that corruption was. And he took that corruption theme right up through his victory this [5:51] week. So now there's this expected turn back toward Europe. But when it comes to Ukraine, [5:57] Orban has been blocking billions of dollars of aid that the EU wants delivered to Ukraine. [6:03] What should we expect moving forward on Hungary's role in the war? [6:07] Well, I think that Peter Magyar will stop being an irritant to the EU. And my guess is that he will [6:13] probably not exercise the Hungarian veto on this giant loan to Ukraine. That said, I don't think he is [6:21] going to sort of cuddle up to Ukraine very much, because over the years, Orban has really whipped up [6:27] a kind of anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Hungary. And I think this whole foreign policy issue about the war [6:34] next door is not really where Magyar wants to spend his time. So I think he'll get out of the way of [6:39] Europe. He won't block it, but he's not going to be there as a giant supporter cheering on Ukrainian, [6:45] on Ukrainian fight against Russia. He has promised quite starkly, I think, to cut the Russian ties [6:53] that Orban had cultivated. And so I think insofar as the Ukrainian veto on Ukraine was part of Orban's [7:02] making nice with Russia, that reason will be gone. [7:05] Orban's 16-year-old hold on power helped write a playbook that populist leaders, [7:11] including critics say our own President Trump have used. What does Orban's loss mean for this [7:17] type of strongman leadership in other Western democracies? [7:20] A lot of Orban's machinery that has supported the far right across Europe, and for that matter, [7:27] has helped the far right in the United States, a lot of that machinery is going to remain intact, [7:33] because the funding that holds up this huge operation called the Matias Corvinas Collegium [7:39] and its various think tanks, like the Danube Institute, has been buffered from change by an [7:44] incoming government. And it's going to go on operating even without having a state behind it. So [7:50] it's a mixed story on all that. And I might say that this Danube Institute, which is Viktor Orban's [7:56] English language think tank, was a partner with the Heritage Foundation in drafting Project 2025. [8:03] And the way that you can see that is that Trump's opening salvo months exactly duplicated what Viktor [8:10] Orban had done when he came to power in 2010. So, you know, I think the Trump administration has lost [8:16] a friend and an ally. And yet, even with this playbook, Orban lost with almost 80 percent of [8:24] the populists turning out. Does Magyar's rapid ascent potentially offer a playbook for Trump's [8:31] political opponents? Yeah. So the way that Magyar won, I think, is very instructive to other oppositions [8:36] trying to fight back against autocracy. The first thing is that autocrats do try to rig the rules in [8:42] their favor. So when a pro-democratic candidate runs, he's got to figure out how to get around [8:48] the rig rules in the system. And Peter Magyar had figured out that the way Orban's system was set up [8:54] was that a rural voter would have roughly three times the weight in the parliamentary elections [9:00] as an urban voter. All of the oppositions had previously cultivated the cities, more cosmopolitan, [9:06] more anti-authoritarian, you might say. Peter Magyar went out to every single village in person to [9:12] persuade Orban's base, actually, that Orban was not acting in their interests. He also built this huge, [9:20] big tent so that people who voted for him probably agree on very little else than that Orban has to go [9:27] and that democratic institutions have to be rebuilt, and that the corruption all has to stop. So, [9:34] very cleverly, Magyar played the issues that appealed to the broadest group, and he ignored all of the [9:41] pleas to deal with issues that only dealt with part of his base. So, big tent, figuring out the election [9:48] rules, figuring out a path to victory, all of that matters. And the world is watching. Kim Lane [9:54] Shepley of Princeton University. Thank you. Thank you. [9:58] Robyn Shepley- Support journalism you trust. Support PBS News. Donate now, or even better, [10:14] start a monthly contribution today.