How Gulf nations and European allies are responding to Trump's Iran address

[0:00] AMNA NAWAZ We return to the war now in the Middle East, [0:02] the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, and reaction to President Trump's announcement [0:06] that the attacks will go on two to three weeks more. For that, we turn to Robin Niblett, [0:11] a distinguished fellow and former director at Chatham House, that's a global policy think tank, [0:16] and Firas Maqsad is managing director of the Middle East and North Africa practice at the [0:21] Eurasia Group. It's an international consulting firm. Welcome to you both. And Firas, I'll begin [0:26] with you because clearly all nations are not viewing the war in Iran and its impacts the same. [0:31] So let's begin with the regional countries in the Gulf. How are they looking at the U.S. and [0:35] Israeli war in Iran and what do they want to see happen now? Well, Amna, it's not a uniform view [0:43] across the Arabian Gulf. These countries have different interests, they have different positions [0:48] from Israel, and they've been also impacted in different ways as a result of this war. [0:53] I think it's important to point out that most of these countries, [0:57] prefer diplomacy rather than war at a time when it was actually Israel that was very much [1:02] lobbying the president of the United States to conduct this military operation. That view, [1:07] however, began to change as Iran very much attacked these countries, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, [1:14] Kuwait, Bahrain, and others. And the private message to the president increasingly became, [1:20] go on. We're already taking the hit. Finish the job. Don't leave us with an Iran that's standing [1:26] 10 feet tall. [1:27] Having taken on the United States and Israel, survived regime decapitation and continues to [1:33] fire ballistic missiles. As of late, however, that message is again changing. These countries [1:39] now increasingly worried that as President Trump, in the two weeks ahead, sends more forces to the [1:45] region, promises and threatens escalation, they, their critical infrastructure, the energy, [1:52] the power plants, and the desalination plants might be very much in the bullseye. [1:57] They're very concerned at this point. [1:58] Robin Niblett, meanwhile, we know the European allies never wanted the U.S. to withdraw from [2:03] that Iran nuclear deal in the first place, never wanted this war to begin. And you just heard [2:08] President Trump last night call upon them as nations that depend on the oil and liquefied [2:13] natural gas that goes through the Strait of Hormuz to act, to, in his words, grab it and [2:18] to cherish it. How is that message going down with European allies today? [2:22] Um, not well, like the whole war itself. [2:28] There's a view expressed by just about every European leader that this was a war that was [2:35] not well-planned, doesn't have clear objectives, a war in which the Europeans were not consulted, [2:40] to the extent that even the British weren't prepared at the beginning to be able to allow [2:45] bases to be used for the initial assault, something that President Trump has called [2:50] out very harshly, as you know. You've got to remember this comes on the back of the [2:55] Europeans, the Greenland. [2:57] Uh… [2:58] shock threat to sovereignty in Europe, which is quite a shocking element for them to be coping [3:05] with as well. A trade war, unpredictable positions on Ukraine. I think for most European leaders, [3:11] they've realized that while they've been sort of buying time on Ukraine, trying to sort of buy time [3:17] and simply try to jolly President Trump along on Iran is the wrong approach to take. So you've seen [3:24] some really clear language from all the top leaders in Europe, from Kastammer, from Macron, [3:30] even from Germany's Chancellor Merz recently, saying that this is this war is not being thought [3:35] through. We're not going to be involved. Even Giorgia Malone in Italy. She has also been [3:41] critical recently of a badly thought through war that's against international law. So how's it seen? [3:48] Not well. And also a sense that we're going to take the hit economically, as you noted. I mean, [3:53] we don't get much [3:54] oil from the Gulf anymore. We do get some important liquefied natural gas and our gas [3:59] prices are already high because of the war against Ukraine by Russia. So we know we're [4:04] going to take more of the hit. So then for President Trump to kind of do the we broke [4:10] it, you own it, as people have described it, is seen as galling, to put it mildly. [4:14] Firas, this focus by the president on reopening the Strait and the push for other nations to [4:19] take control and act to do it. How are Gulf nations looking at that effort? [4:22] Well, Amna, [4:25] that that is, [4:25] I think, is a point of grave concern for them. There are some nations in the Gulf that are [4:31] entirely dependent on exporting through that narrow body of water. Now, there are others [4:36] that don't that have workarounds. Saudi Arabia has an East-West pipeline that allows it to channel [4:41] quite a bit of its oil to the Red Sea. The UAE also has a workaround that channels oil, [4:46] one point four million barrels a day. But for most of these countries, [4:50] the Strait is the lifeline. And the idea that Iran might control it after all this is said, and, [4:55] done, or that Iran might even charge some kind of a toll system, a toll regime, [5:00] is something that's very concerning. I think it's very important for us, [5:04] also, remember that the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, [5:09] where Yemen and the Houthis are, can also become contested if the Houthis choose to [5:14] attack the Saudi pipeline or to fire at ships there. So it's an overall picture that is [5:19] very much clouded. And the United States and its president, essentially, devolve, [5:25] responsibilities to other is not what these countries want to hear right now. [5:29] Robin, in the minute or so we have left, you've mentioned Mr. Trump's repeated threats to leave [5:33] NATO. And after European allies rebuffed his efforts to help reopen the Strait last month, [5:38] he threatened to stop sending weapons to Ukraine. How are those threats, are those threats [5:43] influencing how European leaders are viewing this moment and what they might do? [5:50] Well, I think obviously it's a deep source of concern. Mark Britter, the Secretary General [5:54] of NATO, convened a private call with some of the main European leaders saying, look, [5:58] this is serious. And it's serious, especially for military support to Ukraine. Europeans now pay for [6:04] that military support for Ukraine, but we need to be able to buy a lot of it from America. We don't [6:09] have the equipment ourselves. So you saw a lot of these moves to say that we will provide some type [6:15] of maritime reassurance force after there's a ceasefire. That followed a request from Mark [6:22] Britter to try to tone it down. [6:24] Over NATO. I think in the long term, however, Europeans believe they just need to get through [6:29] the next three years. They reckon that NATO will survive if we can get beyond the Donald [6:34] Trump presidency. And that's what they're focused on right now is surviving these next three years. [6:39] All right. That is Robin Niblett and Firas Maksad joining us tonight. Gentlemen, [6:43] thank you both for your time and insights. Appreciate it. [7:00] Support journalism you trust. Support PBS News. [7:05] Donate now or even better, start a monthly contribution today. [7:08] Thank you for joining us.